Ji Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 hey guys, Its me again lol. We have been tracking the potential of a big storm for next weekend for about a week now in another thread. After looking at the guidance the past few days, I am ready to pull the trigger and at least say there is a definite threat on a potential big winter storm for the Mid Atlantic. The European model(Which has much better verification than the GFS) after losing the storm in the past few days, now has the storm back. Todays run shows big snow for the Mid Atlantic This is the 3rd run in a row its shown the event We have to endure a mild week first before this can happen and there are many things than can go wrong in terms of timing,cold air source etc. But wanted to let you know that there is a definite threat. Its not a forecast yet. Dont look for the storm on the 12z GFS...its not there yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoGood28 Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 Do you have any hope for us down here in Norfolk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Pressure Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 In the battle of weather giants of the ES forum I shall represent weather.com At this time, no, there will not be a big storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rm8899 Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 Great. right when i'm moving back up to DC from NC. a little welcome home form mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2007 Author Share Posted December 9, 2007 Do you have any hope for us down here in Norfolk? lol...its Norfolk dude. Anyway...there is a decent chance of something if the storm played out verbatim as to what the models shows now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wantarace17 Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 lol snow for norfolk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2007 Author Share Posted December 9, 2007 snow in norfolk in mid december. There is a better chance for a redskins linebacker to have 15 sacks in a season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaceman Spiff Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 snow in norfolk in mid december. There is a better chance for a redskins linebacker to have 15 sacks in a season So there *is* a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark The Homer Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 I've had enough wet weather for awhile. This whole week is supposed to be wet. Forecast a string of sunny days please. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wantarace17 Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 Ji can you post up the maps of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
herrmag Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 Darn it, every time I go out of town on business I miss the snow. I missed last week's, and looks like I'm going to miss this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reic Posted December 9, 2007 Share Posted December 9, 2007 73 degrees tomorrow in Norfolk, and 70 on wednesday, it is going to me nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trio Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 it has snowed like that in Norfolk before...in fact, in the past 10 years there have been at least 2 snowstorms in the tidewater area approaching 2 feet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enter Apotheosis Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 I am ready to pull the trigger and at least say there is a definite threat on a potential big winter storm for the Mid Atlantic. And I am maybe probably kinda sorta sure that you have no confidence in that prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Head Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 Ji, what you fail to point out, is that there is always a threat of something happening. Your predictions and long range forecasting is a joke for the most part. You have been saying words like "likely", "possible", "threat", "chance" and "probability" all season since late October. Many people have bashed you for your inaccuracies, and you try to fight back by saying you used one of the words I have just mentioned, so it is no guarantee. Here's a clue - with weather, there is never a guarantee. No accurate forecaster can forecast beyond a 48-72 hour window with any success, it just doesn't happen, weather changes unexpectedly all the time. Also, your forecasts* are generally too outlandish to matter, and always a best/worst case scenario (depending on whether you like the forecasted weather). Your forecasts are too broad. e.g., there is a miniscule chance of measurable snowfall somewhere along the Eastern third of the United States sometime between January 1 and December 31. Grow some balls, and narrow it down a tad. If you want respect, you have to earn it. Try hitting on the money in a particular location for once, instead of a National outlook with thousands of possibilities. Respect is earned. So far this season, you've taken a step backward my friend. I'm not doubting your skill in the field, I'm simply stating that just because you obviously like snow like most of us here do, don't be so quick to jump the gun and go with the model that gives what you would prefer to happen, the model with the probability of 4.8%, while all the other models give a 95.2% chance of one other probability. ***For the record, the storm you speak of will materialize, just not quite where you're hoping for. The system coming into play, will be pulling moisture in from the Gulf, while the cool air slowly moves in from the North - to slowly to be of any impact to this system. What this will amount to, is cool to frigid temperatures from about Baltimore, northward to New England. It will get cold, but it will also be with minimal cloud cover, and relatively dry air for the most part. The only real moisture associated with the system, will stay further to the south (Northern Georgia - Central Virginia), where we will experience nothing more than a chance of light rain, with temperatures hovering around 45-50 degrees.*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toe Jam Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 Ji, what you fail to point out, is that there is always a threat of something happening. Your predictions and long range forecasting is a joke for the most part. You have been saying words like "likely", "possible", "threat", "chance" and "probability" all season since late October. Many people have bashed you for your inaccuracies, and you try to fight back by saying you used one of the words I have just mentioned, so it is no guarantee. Here's a clue - with weather, there is never a guarantee. No accurate forecaster can forecast beyond a 48-72 hour window with any success, it just doesn't happen, weather changes unexpectedly all the time. Also, your forecasts* are generally too outlandish to matter, and always a best/worst case scenario (depending on whether you like the forecasted weather). Your forecasts are too broad. e.g., there is a miniscule chance of measurable snowfall somewhere along the Eastern third of the United States sometime between January 1 and December 31. Grow some balls, and narrow it down a tad. If you want respect, you have to earn it. Try hitting on the money in a particular location for once, instead of a National outlook with thousands of possibilities. Respect is earned. So far this season, you've taken a step backward my friend. I'm not doubting your skill in the field, I'm simply stating that just because you obviously like snow like most of us here do, don't be so quick to jump the gun and go with the model that gives what you would prefer to happen, the model with the probability of 4.8%, while all the other models give a 95.2% chance of one other probability. ***For the record, the storm you speak of will materialize, just not quite where you're hoping for. The system coming into play, will be pulling moisture in from the Gulf, while the cool air slowly moves in from the North - to slowly to be of any impact to this system. What this will amount to, is cool to frigid temperatures from about Baltimore, northward to New England. It will get cold, but it will also be with minimal cloud cover, and relatively dry air for the most part. The only real moisture associated with the system, will stay further to the south (Northern Georgia - Central Virginia), where we will experience nothing more than a chance of light rain, with temperatures hovering around 45-50 degrees.*** You do realize that you state weather is really not predictable outside of 72 hours and then you proceed to make a prediction for next weeks storm? That seems a bit hypocritical to me. Maybe you think you are God. Really? Is that how you KNOW exactly what this storm is going to do? Get real. Ji uses those words because he knows there is possible error. You have stated your entire forecast as though it's already a fact. Leave the man alone. Nobody is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticksboi05 Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 The DGEX Model: I'm pretty sure I heard the NAO is forecast to go negative which is a positive sign as basically every big coastal storm we've had has been in a state of a negative NAO (or those of you who don't know, thats North Atlantic Oscillation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trio Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 Ji, what you fail to point out, is that there is always a threat of something happening. Your predictions and long range forecasting is a joke for the most part. You have been saying words like "likely", "possible", "threat", "chance" and "probability" all season since late October. Many people have bashed you for your inaccuracies, and you try to fight back by saying you used one of the words I have just mentioned, so it is no guarantee. Here's a clue - with weather, there is never a guarantee. No accurate forecaster can forecast beyond a 48-72 hour window with any success, it just doesn't happen, weather changes unexpectedly all the time. Also, your forecasts* are generally too outlandish to matter, and always a best/worst case scenario (depending on whether you like the forecasted weather). Your forecasts are too broad. e.g., there is a miniscule chance of measurable snowfall somewhere along the Eastern third of the United States sometime between January 1 and December 31. Grow some balls, and narrow it down a tad. If you want respect, you have to earn it. Try hitting on the money in a particular location for once, instead of a National outlook with thousands of possibilities. Respect is earned. So far this season, you've taken a step backward my friend. I'm not doubting your skill in the field, I'm simply stating that just because you obviously like snow like most of us here do, don't be so quick to jump the gun and go with the model that gives what you would prefer to happen, the model with the probability of 4.8%, while all the other models give a 95.2% chance of one other probability. ***For the record, the storm you speak of will materialize, just not quite where you're hoping for. The system coming into play, will be pulling moisture in from the Gulf, while the cool air slowly moves in from the North - to slowly to be of any impact to this system. What this will amount to, is cool to frigid temperatures from about Baltimore, northward to New England. It will get cold, but it will also be with minimal cloud cover, and relatively dry air for the most part. The only real moisture associated with the system, will stay further to the south (Northern Georgia - Central Virginia), where we will experience nothing more than a chance of light rain, with temperatures hovering around 45-50 degrees.*** dude, lighten up a little....its not like we are planning a major offensive in WWII off of this weather forecast, or plotting air travel, or the immigration across the seas on a caravel.... its a freaking weather forecast in the "other topics" forum on a message board about an NFL football team.... i kinda like them...i didn't think they were intended to be anything other than fun.... sheesh...what a tough crowd,.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toe Jam Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 Ji.. Are we looking at more of a Miller A or a Miller B type storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticksboi05 Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 Ji..Are we looking at more of a Miller A or a Miller B type storm? Woah, it may not even happen. It's jut the threat is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Pressure Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 dude, lighten up a little....its not like we are planning a major offensive in WWII off of this weather forecast, or plotting air travel, or the immigration across the seas on a caravel....its a freaking weather forecast in the "other topics" forum on a message board about an NFL football team.... i kinda like them...i didn't think they were intended to be anything other than fun.... sheesh...what a tough crowd,.... Whoa whoa whoa let me get this straight... ...you say we're NOT planning a major offensive of ww2 on this forum??? This is news to me damn it...why am I always the last one to find out about these sort of things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Head Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 You do realize that you state weather is really not predictable outside of 72 hours and then you proceed to make a prediction for next weeks storm?That seems a bit hypocritical to me. Maybe you think you are God. Really? Is that how you KNOW exactly what this storm is going to do? Get real. Ji uses those words because he knows there is possible error. You have stated your entire forecast as though it's already a fact. Leave the man alone. Nobody is perfect. Go back and read my most. I said it is not possible to accurately predict it outside of that time frame. For the record, there is no god, so obviously I can't be god. You also took what I said way too personally............Ji :paranoid: :laugh: Just look around.....Ji has threads on this subject on the front page here every day. he has been saying it was going to snow since April from what i hear. Thing is, I also know from reading his past posts he is never on the money, or even in the same bank as the money. Every day it's the same thing from him - we will be getting snow on x day, in amounts totalling x inches. Then it never happens. Not that it matters to me, I have accepted the fact it never snows around here, but nobody cares to hear that according to him, we have a chance of a MAJOR snowstorm every single week. That's a phrase he has thrown around several times like it's money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toe Jam Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 Woah, it may not even happen. It's jut the threat is there. I know that. I just want to see what his current thinking is on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madanomem Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 shooooo i would love a giant snow storm. it would be a great way to kick off winter break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Punani Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 Usually a weather model/models will show the "threat" of a winter storm about once a week for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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