Dr. Z: Ratings Game (Champ content)

[TheLongshot]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=cnnsi-ratingsgame&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns

Ratings Game

Dr. Z

It must have been about 15 years ago. I was at a dinner party in San Francisco, and I'd come from the 49ers' practice field, and I had my Big Book with me. I had it with me because I didn't feel safe leaving it in the car -- if it were ever lost or stolen, I'd have to kill myself.

The Big Book was, and is, my record of everything that happens to each team, week-by-week box scores, plus notes (game notes in black, trades and player movement in green, injuries in red, anything else, such as arrests or contract situations, in blue). It is 250 pages long and it lives in a five-subject binder made by Dennison Company in Framingham, Mass. They stopped making the 250-pagers a few years ago and cut down the size. I went into mourning. I should have stocked up and laid in a supply of about 50 of them, because I vitally need the 250 pages. If anyone still has any, please let me know and I'll buy them off you.

If I write small enough I can get three years into one of those big ones. But the key is writing small, real small, so small that sometimes I can't read it. Anyway, the Big Book was sitting there, minding its own business during dinner, and some woman reached over and picked it up and started thumbing through it.

"Oh my God, you've got to see this," she said to her husband. So they began tee-heeing and then they passed it around and people were practicing their one-liners on the poor thing. I made a noise like an oyster because I was used to it. Who cares what a bunch of Bay Area hoity toits think?

But one woman, actually the one I liked best at that gathering, got furious.

"Don't you understand what you're looking at?" she said to them. "You're looking at passion!"

Now let's fast forward 15 years. KC Joyner of Altamonte Springs, Fla., has sent me a copy of his magnum opus, Scientific Football 2005, a 467-page analysis of the NFL passing game, featuring the damnedest array of charts you've ever seen. And in tiny agate type, no less. KC Joyner calls himself The Football Scientist, and I could be a wiseguy and say that his book looks like a lab report, but I wouldn't do that.

Instead I asked the Flaming Redhead what she thought of it.

"Looks like yours," she said, with no trace of a smile. That's right. Looks like mine. Not so much my Big Book but my charts, except that his go into a lot more depth in the passing game. I've got to divide mine between passing and running, featuring linemen who block well and who don't, defenders who can and can't play the run, and stuff like that. Plus, my access is limited because I only see eight games a weekend. Joyner sees all 16, or 14 when the bye is in effect.

A few years ago he decided he wanted to present to the public the most in-depth analysis the passing game has ever undergone. So he quit his $50,000 a year job in telecom to see if he could actually, within the framework of time allotted, break down NFL passing the way he wanted to.

Well, I've never seen such a complete look at this phase of the game. Each passer is evaluated on the basis of every type of pass he delivers, and at every range (short, medium, deep), and from every kind of drop (three step, five, seven, seven moving up to three, scrambling, scrambling and pulling up and throwing, passing off a half roll or a sprint out, and so on). Receivers get the same treatment. So do defenders. Then they get rated and graded. So do the teams themselves, the different units, the sackers and pass blockers, etc.

If there are 500 of you out there who simply must have this book, even though it bears a $49.95 price tag, then the money KC spent to publish it himself will be covered. You can get it by e-mailing him at KC@thefootballscientist.com, or writing to him at Box 161605 Altamonte Springs, Fla., 32716-1605. But I must warn you. You must attack the statistics section, the charts, with a clear head and a good night's sleep. If you doze for a few seconds, if you let your attention wander, you'll have a hard time catching up. The abbreviations will drive you nuts, too. Study the keys in front of each section very, very carefully.

If it were just a collection of numbers, I wouldn't be spending this much time on it, but here's the thing that caught my eye: the quality of the observations. We are constantly being deluged by crap, by cliches, whether in the newspapers or on TV. The same old blah blah, how much fun Brett Favre is having out there ... after he has thrown his third interception. What a great team guy Terrell Owens has turned into ... after Donovan McNabb walks almost the entire length of the bench to get away from him. Ray Lewis' great leadership ... because he's got the old fist-in-the-air routine down pat. And so forth.

But the observation Joyner affords on every team, while I didn't agree with all of them, are striking because they are based on non-emotional, non-promotional facts. His facts.

Some random observations ... on the Broncos' wideout Ashley Lelie, for instance: "It isn't a stretch to say that Lelie was possibly the most dangerous deep threat in the NFL last season. He had the second most deep passes thrown to him, and ranked 20th in deep pass completion percentage (42 percent). He only faced tight/good coverage 24 percent of the time on deep passes, ranking him 11th in the league, and was open by two or more steps on deep passes 11 percent of the time. His success on deep routes made his overall yards per attempt the seventh highest in the league.

"It's a damn good thing Lelie was good at deep passes because he frankly stunk at the other depth levels."

Or on consensus All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey: "Bailey was 79th in deep yards (first being the fewest), tied for 73rd in deep completion percentage, tied for 16th most in deep attempts, tied for 69th in deep TDs ... Bailey wasn't just beaten deep; he was targeted for deep passes quite frequently."

Or how about the Vikings' little-known TE, Jermaine Wiggins? "The most amazing stat ... Wiggins was thrown 102 passes but only one of them was deep ... He ranked second in the league in medium completion percentage and first in short completion percentage ... Wiggins is not the best receiving tight end in the league (he is not even close), but he's the best short-receiving tight end. He will have a role in this offense regardless of how vertical the Vikings decide to be this year. He is a perfect fit in his role and could threaten for the Pro Bowl."

Two things that I like best are ripping the established stars or basic untouchables who seldom get that treatment, and praising the unknowns. Here are a couple of major league rips.

Eli Manning: "One of the things I can't stand as an analyst is hype. Some of the PR in this league simply bugs me no end, and the Eli Manning PR probably bugs me more than just about any other. Eli played so poorly last year that at one point I pulled out the thesaurus, as I simply couldn't find the words to describe how poorly Eli Manning was playing ... Abominable, appalling, deplorable, ghastly and unsightly all seemed to hit the spot. Eli's list of mistakes was nearly as long as Mike Vick's."

Or Kurt Warner, not a star anymore but considered, in some quarters, as some kind of miracle fix for the Cardinals: "If Warner brings that blind bull in a China shop pocket presence to Arizona, he'll have a very long season. Arizona doesn't have the RB that the Giants had, or the TE. Their receivers are long on press clippings and short on performance and their offensive line will likely be a big issue. Warner is going to have to adjust to his circumstances."

Finally a nice little plug for Philly's right cornerback, Sheldon Brown, who was not a Pro Bowl choice and made only one all-pro team last year: mine. "I knew Brown was good, going into this review, but when I saw his stat lines my jaw dropped ... he only allowed one TD, despite facing 117 passes ... Brown allowed a mere two completions on 24 deep passes, which ranked second in the league...I don't get a commission for his Honolulu plane ticket and hotel room, but I like to see justice served. If he plays this well next year, he ought to not just go to the Pro Bowl. He should be an All-Pro."

Finally I placed a phone call to KC Joyner. Why, I wanted to know, didn't his stats match the official NFL ones?

"Hurricanes and blackouts," he said. "I was quite upset about the hurricanes. They made me miss six games. I got my brothers and my dad to record some others for me.

"Jacksonville's home games are blacked out where I live because they don't sell out. They don't even sell out for playoffs. But you'll find my stats are different in other areas, too, because I tape all games, including playoffs."

I asked him how many games he could tape in a single day. He said "All of them." And how many DVDs did he have all going at once? "Twelve, if I need them," he said. I asked him how that all worked and I was immediately sorry because he launched into a long explanation of splitters and A and B switches and toggles (Did I write that correctly? Maybe he meant Jesse Tuggle, the old Falcons' linebacker) that gave me a case of the stupids.

Finally I asked him if he were happy, putting himself into a meat grinder like this.

"Once I got worried because I was so consumed by football," he said. "I asked my step-sister, Melissa, 'Is it a curse that I love football so much?'

"She said, 'Most people go through their lives without finding any one thing to love so much ... a person, maybe, but not a thing. Be thankful. You've found it.'"

---------------------------------------------

Confirms what a lot of us thought about Champ's season last year.

Wonder what the book has to say about our players. Probably not good.

Jason

[ntotoro]

Or on consensus All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey: "Bailey was 79th in deep yards (first being the fewest), tied for 73rd in deep completion percentage, tied for 16th most in deep attempts, tied for 69th in deep TDs ... Bailey wasn't just beaten deep; he was targeted for deep passes quite frequently."

Gee... sounds like his last couple years here, but no one in the media was saying it then. Guess they can't shy away from it now.

Nick

[Cool Hand Loki]

Actually, last year Z was high on Griffin, Washington, Pierce, and Smoot, and I think it was based largely on his magic charts. Joyner's book might not be so harsh on last year's team (at least defensively).

The offensive numbers will likely be abominable, though.

[Leonard Washington]

that is very true about champ...in other news...i can't stand Dr. Z. wtf is he a doctor of? idiotcy? who is this flaming redhead he always refers to? his mother? wife? phd mentor?

[Cool Hand Loki]

Originally posted by Leonard Washington

that is very true about champ...in other news...i can't stand Dr. Z. wtf is he a doctor of? idiotcy? who is this flaming redhead he always refers to? his mother? wife? phd mentor?

I think his PhD is in journalism, though I may be wrong. The Redhead is his wife.

He's a little bizarre, but I still give him the benefit of the doubt because he penned "The Thinking Man's Guide to Professional Football." It's a great work, one that still has value 20 some-odd years after its latest revision. He had some great things to say about Gibbs back then, too bad he's changed his tune.

[Mr. S]

well, Ill still hate him for bashing Art Monk, but otherwise, if he was favorable on Griffin and Washington, and bashes Champ, then he is just one step away from being a favorite of mine.

[Boss_Hogg]

Originally posted by TheLongshot

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=cnnsi-ratingsgame&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns

Or on consensus All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey: "Bailey was 79th in deep yards (first being the fewest), tied for 73rd in deep completion percentage, tied for 16th most in deep attempts, tied for 69th in deep TDs ... Bailey wasn't just beaten deep; he was targeted for deep passes quite frequently."

Jason

Dude, that is so true. I work with a bunch a guys from Denver who are huge Bronco fans. All but 2 of them wish they had never gotten Champ Bailey. I love hearing them ***** and moan about how Champ got burned all season. When they always ask me why Champ was good in DC, my response: "It's our system."

[jschlesi]

Half the forum was saying it without a stat book during Champs last year here.

[BillyKilmer]

Joyner was the source of this info Z is just using his column to plug the guys book. Looking at the guys take on Bailey you can tell his work is not teh conventinal thinking

[ChocolateCitySkin]

Wow and I thought I was obsessed with football.

[DieselPwr44]

Originally posted by ntotoro

Gee... sounds like his last couple years here, but no one in the media was saying it then. Guess they can't shy away from it now.

Nick

Correction: It sounds like what 75% of this board was saying. Except back then, we were wrongly labeled as "Champ Haters".

:2cents:

[Monkart]

That was some interesting information, I hate to say it but I loved the fact that Champ was getting burned. I can't believe I think like that now because I have 3 Jersey's with Champs name on them, white, burgundy and the 70th gotten through various holidays, plus a personally signed rookie card I got in Jacksonville a couple years ago. I really enjoyed watching this guy play for us, but the way he talked :crap: when he left seemed so out of character for him and just didn't sit right with me. Plus I think he went out of his way to get into Smoots ear this offseason. So as the jilted fan I hope he does even worse this year.

[[[ghost]]]

Originally posted by ChocolateCitySkin

Wow and I thought I was obsessed with football.

thats exactly what i thought..

[REDALERT]

Originally posted by jschlesi

Half the forum was saying it without a stat book during Champs last year here.

NO Sh!t , I guess we can all get paid for what those clowns come up with after Redskin players leave here. Secrets we all witnessed during Redskin games when Champ was here. But Hey! who are we? I guess just fans that disagreed with the notion we got screwed in the Portis/Bailey trade.

Now! who misses Champ:laugh: and who really got screwed:rolleyes:

[budski]

So who got the better deal now?

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Eli Manning: "One of the things I can't stand as an analyst is hype. Some of the PR in this league simply bugs me no end, and the Eli Manning PR probably bugs me more than just about any other. Eli played so poorly last year that at one point I pulled out the thesaurus, as I simply couldn't find the words to describe how poorly Eli Manning was playing ... Abominable, appalling, deplorable, ghastly and unsightly all seemed to hit the spot. Eli's list of mistakes was nearly as long as Mike Vick's."

:notworthy Someone send those football "experts" at Smith & Street or Sporting News or wherever this guy's book, and highlight that section on Eli Manning...I'm tired of hearing how Manning was playing so damn well last season that the Giants are predicted to challenge the Eagles now...

[autographcollector]

Champ benefited here from people not throwing his way. He had some embarasing burns hear too.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Some insight on the Skins (and Skins-related info) last season from the guy who wrote the book...

http://www.thefootballscientist.com/user/TFS%202004%20game%20notes.pdf

Week 2 against the Giants:

"Rod Gardner had a good day, but it was mostly due to lousy coverage."

Week 5:

"Mark Brunell looks shaky in the pocket, has happy feet and taps the ball a lot."

Week 6:

"Laveranues Coles can't make good cuts, it looks like his toe may still be bothering him. He does very well on straight line routes, but struggles some when he has to cut on medium routes."

"Mark Brunell is too quick to throw the ball away, and he has mentioned this as a positive to the announcers two weeks in a row. It may be possible that the coaches are giving him carte blanche on this to help keep him from making bad decisions, which isn't a good sign. Brunell may also hear the pass rush too much, he actually dropped 9 yards back on one deep pass and he often throws off his back foot. Brunell has also been very inaccurate, missed two open receivers deep."

Week 7:

"Cincinnatti targeted Champ Bailey deep, and that's Bailey's Achilles heel. Bailey was beaten deep on go routes nine times last year, and it is this weakness that keeps him from being the #1 cover CB in the league."

Week 8:

"Mark Brunell is still taking 9 step drops, and this is throwing off the rhythm of the entire Redskins passing game. He also wasn't very accurate on Sunday."

"Shawn Springs is playing better than he did last year, but he is still nowhere near the shutdown corner people think he can be."

Week 9:

"Mark Brunell still has happy feet and acts like he doesn't trust his pocket."

"Clinton Portis likes a multiple hole system where he can read the defense and choose his hole. The Redskins have been using a single hole system (ie: the play is designed to be run to a specific hole). The Redskins have recently revised their blocking system to allow Portis to choose his hole."

"Fred Smoot is still favoring his left shoulder. It hasn't affected his coverage but it has affected his tackling."

Week 10:

"Fred Smoot's shoulder is still bothering him; he gave up a lot of yards after the catch due to trying to tackle with his good shoulder."

"Patrick Ramsey threw four interceptions that were dropped. He didn't look any better than Mark Brunell did."

Week 11:

"Washington ran a ton of hitch patterns and wide receiver screens. They just wouldn't go deep with the ball at all, even when Philly played their receivers tight at the line. They'll get a lot of interceptions against them if they don't do something to get their receivers more room."

Week 12:

"I have to wonder why Washington threw as much as they did against Pittsburgh. Not only threw the ball often, they threw it deep. The Redskins can't pass block well, their QB isn't playing well, and their receivers are dropping passes, yet here they are throwing bombs against the Steelers. Do they not trust their running game, or is it that they thought they could throw on the Steelers? It looked like they thought they could throw."

"Champ Bailey was burned deep and often. It's just like I said in my preseason draft guide, Bailey can be beaten deep. It's why he isn't the best CB in football. Chad Johnson beat him earlier this year, and Jerry Porter kicked his a$$."

Week 13:

"The Giants defensive line is very banged up, and that's the primary reason Clinton Portis was able to rush for as many yards as he did. Washington faced Pittsburgh and Philly the past two weeks and got stuffed, so it isn't that the Skins running attack was that much better, but the Giants DL is that much worse."

"Eli Manning got 48 of his 113 passing yards on a fade route vs. a backup Washington CB late in the game. He looked terrible, had frequent miscommunications with his receivers, threw inaccurate passes, and just looked awful. Washington is good, but they aren't that good."

Week 16:

"Fred Smoot still won't shoulder tackle with his left shoulder."

"Dallas beet Shawn Springs and Sean Taylor twice deep. Springs passed the receivers deep too early and Taylor had to cover other receivers down the middle of the field and couldn't get over in time. This was probably Springs' fault, as he shouldn't have passed the receiver deep until he knew Taylor was going to be able to get over. One of these blown coverages turned into the winning TD for (Dallas)."

Week 17:

"Going into week 17, Denver's RBs had 1780 yards and 11 TDs. The RB by committee made up for Clinton Portis, didn't it?"

"Patrick Ramsey still looks jittery when faced with a pass rush. He forced a pass into the line of scrimmage that was intercepted by a Minnesota defensive lineman when he was under a pass rush. He simply has to overcome this or it will be an issue as long as he plays."

"Greg Williams told Bill Maas that he has no problem with Garnell Wilds as a starter."

[Spaceman Spiff]

Sounds like the dude knows his stuff!

Wonder what the broncos fans at the orange mane would have to say about this?

[VaBeachSkinzFan]

"Shawn Springs is playing better than he did last year, but he is still nowhere near the shutdown corner people think he can be."

What more does he want from a corner. Springs was one of the top 5 last year IMO.

[grego]

Originally posted by VaBeachSkinzFan

"Shawn Springs is playing better than he did last year, but he is still nowhere near the shutdown corner people think he can be."

What more does he want from a corner. Springs was one of the top 5 last year IMO.

i found that a little odd too- just about the only statement of his i disagreed with. as someone who was skeptical about him, springs was no less than outstanding last year. oh well.

[dem"U"boys26/36]

Originally posted by budski

So who got the better deal now?

us no doubt

Portis younger ,and has more impact on a game

[grego]

Originally posted by Spaceman Spiff

Sounds like the dude knows his stuff!

Wonder what the broncos fans at the orange mane would have to say about this?

did you go over there and check it out? sheesh- lots and lots of excuses ranging from schemes to lack of pass rush. sorry, a shut down corner is a shut down corner, or he isnt. no excuses.

[dem"U"boys26/36]

Originally posted by grego

a shut down corner is a shut down corner, or he isnt. no excuses. [/b]

CB isnt, cant cover deep,he never turns a make a play on the deepball

[Thiebear]

And yet he makes the Pro bowl on name only... yet Pro Bowls are used for HOF... its a never ending cycle... Denver Ranked 24th in CB coverage... Redskins 3rd...