Playoffs reasonable: The evidence.

[wskin44]

If you don't like numbers and analysis don't read this. If you prefer to read hogwash written by idiots, go to one of those sites that does "power rankings" where they rank the Skins at 25th or worse in the NFL with no explanation. On the other hand if you are just a true believer and don't care about all the negativity said about our team, good for you. Go have a beer.

Recently myself and others have been making the case that the Redskins are much closer to being a playoff team than some would have us believe. After yesterday’s round of stats analysis, I got to thinking about what single stat is the most important in predicting the number of wins. I looked at the teams with 10 or more wins because all of them made the playoffs. The results may seem obvious, but what isn’t so obvious is that the Redskins are very close to breaking into the club.

The one stat that was a slam dunk in predicting teams with 10 wins or more is Net Team Yards Per Play. By that I mean a team’s offensive yards gained per play minus that same team’s defensive yards given up per play.

Only 12 teams in the NFL had a net positive number, with Den, Ind., and Phil., leading the NFL with a net +1 yard. 8 of the 9 teams with 10 wins or more had net plus yardage. The exception was Atlanta (11 wins) with a net zero yardage (14th best in the NFL). No team with a net negative yardage made the playoffs.

Of the top 12 teams, only two didn’t make the playoffs. Buffalo had 9 wins but couldn’t squeeze into the playoffs. Tampa Bay is the only real anomaly. They were ranked 9th with +.5 net yards, but only won 5 games. A minus 9 turnover ratio and I imagine other critical breakdowns must have shafted them.

So all 12 playoff teams were ranked in the top 14 of this stat, and none have net negative yardage. Here is the good news: The Redskins came in at minus one tenth of a yard and were ranked 18th overall. Only small improvements are needed to push the Redskins into the almost can’t miss territory. Where can the improvements realistically happen?

The Redskins ranked 30th in net yards per passing play (net of sack yardage). Although we had 5.12 yards, the numbers are held down due to Brunell’s poor stats. Ramsey had 5.62 net yards per attempt. The NFL avg. is 6.59. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ramsey to improve to at least 6.0 yards, which would only move the Redskins to the 25th ranked passing team.

The overall impact, assuming the same run to pass percentage, would be to increase our net offensive yardage per play to 4.74 yards. This improvement alone would improve the all important Net Team Yards per play to a plus .34 yards. Even with some defensive slippage of 2 tenths of a yard per play, we would still have an 85% chance of making the playoffs.

Which brings us to the running game. You have to believe that we will improve. Portis averaged 5.5 yards per carry in each of his first two seasons. He ran for 3.8 last year and the team ran for 3.7. Even if the team only improves to a 4.0 rushing avg., combined with the reasonable passing improvement, our offensive yards per play would improve to 4.86. That would only move us from 30th to 26th in offense, not beyond reason.

This modest offensive improvement, with the same defensive performance, would move us to a plus .46 (ranked 10th) in the critical Net Yards per play. Assuming the two tenths of a yard slippage in the defense would give us a net +.26 yards we would end up 12th in the category. Only 2 teams out of the top 12 didn’t make the playoffs last year.

So the numbers continue to bear me out. Only small reasonable improvements in our offense will push this team into the playoffs. If the defense even held its own or improved the Redskins would be at a level with the best teams in the NFL. So keep your eye on 4 yards per carry and 6 yards per passing attempt.

[authentic]

hmmmmmmm, interesting analysis

[Califan007 The Constipated]

That's a stat I wouldn't have thought about...interesting..

[Earthcat]

On paper maybe, but the pass rush has to happen (from the LBs). And the deep threat needs to happen. From...

[Leonard Washington]

don't forget the all important scoring more points than the opponent stat :laugh:

[PleaseBlitz]

10 paragraphs to explain if we improve on offense and the defense picks up where they left off, we will win more games.

wow

[dfitzo53]

Originally posted by Leonard Washington

don't forget the all important scoring more points than the opponent stat :laugh:

They track that stuff? Statistics are getting out of hand...

[Walking Deadman]

Nice theory.....

I still think it (obviously) comes down to scoring/stopping scoring and turnovers.

We score more, cut down on our turnovers--hold teams to 10-14pts./game and make them TO 2-4 times/game, we win most of our games.

Easier said than done.

[bubba9497]

W=mc2

[THEHEREAFTER]

Originally posted by wskin44

Recently myself and others have been making the case that the Redskins are much closer to being a playoff team than some would have us believe. After yesterday’s round of stats analysis, I got to thinking about what single stat is the most important in predicting the number of wins. I looked at the teams with 10 or more wins because all of them made the playoffs. The results may seem obvious, but what isn’t so obvious is that the Redskins are very close to breaking into the club.

The one stat that was a slam dunk in predicting teams with 10 wins or more is Net Team Yards Per Play. By that I mean a team’s offensive yards gained per play minus that same team’s defensive yards given up per play.

Only 12 teams in the NFL had a net positive number, with Den, Ind., and Phil., leading the NFL with a net +1 yard. 8 of the 9 teams with 10 wins or more had net plus yardage. The exception was Atlanta (11 wins) with a net zero yardage (14th best in the NFL). No team with a net negative yardage made the playoffs.

Of the top 12 teams, only two didn’t make the playoffs. Buffalo had 9 wins but couldn’t squeeze into the playoffs. Tampa Bay is the only real anomaly. They were ranked 9th with +.5 net yards, but only won 5 games. A minus 9 turnover ratio and I imagine other critical breakdowns must have shafted them.

So all 12 playoff teams were ranked in the top 14 of this stat, and none have net negative yardage. Here is the good news: The Redskins came in at minus one tenth of a yard and were ranked 18th overall. Only small improvements are needed to push the Redskins into the almost can’t miss territory. Where can the improvements realistically happen?

The Redskins ranked 30th in net yards per passing play (net of sack yardage). Although we had 5.12 yards, the numbers are held down due to Brunell’s poor stats. Ramsey had 5.62 net yards per attempt. The NFL avg. is 6.59. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ramsey to improve to at least 6.0 yards, which would only move the Redskins to the 25th ranked passing team.

The overall impact, assuming the same run to pass percentage, would be to increase our net offensive yardage per play to 4.74 yards. This improvement alone would improve the all important Net Team Yards per play to a plus .34 yards. Even with some defensive slippage of 2 tenths of a yard per play, we would still have an 85% chance of making the playoffs.

Which brings us to the running game. You have to believe that we will improve. Portis averaged 5.5 yards per carry in each of his first two seasons. He ran for 3.8 last year and the team ran for 3.7. Even if the team only improves to a 4.0 rushing avg., combined with the reasonable passing improvement, our offensive yards per play would improve to 4.86. That would only move us from 30th to 26th in offense, not beyond reason.

This modest offensive improvement, with the same defensive performance, would move us to a plus .46 (ranked 10th) in the critical Net Yards per play. Assuming the two tenths of a yard slippage in the defense would give us a net +.26 yards we would end up 12th in the category. Only 2 teams out of the top 12 didn’t make the playoffs last year.

So the numbers continue to bear me out. Only small reasonable improvements in our offense will push this team into the playoffs. If the defense even held its own or improved the Redskins would be at a level with the best teams in the NFL. So keep your eye on 4 yards per carry and 6 yards per passing attempt.

Very interesting.. I never even considered such a stat..

[Monkart]

Originally posted by Leonard Washington

don't forget the all important scoring more points than the opponent stat :laugh:

:laugh: :laugh: that's good!! I wouldn't care if our D did all the scoring from their 20 yard line. probably wouldn't look that good in the + yard stats league wide but I'd take the + wins stat.

[grimreaper36]

Good thread. I like this line of thinking.

On paper maybe, but the pass rush has to happen

Last I noticed our D was 1st in the NFC. I haven't noticed too many people claiming we needed to improve on THAT side of the ball.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Originally posted by dfitzo53

They track that stuff? Statistics are getting out of hand...

:laugh: :laugh:

[Voice of Reason]

You can interpret statistics to show anything you want. With these yards per play statistics in mind, you could probably make a case for each team that it should make the playoffs.

[wskin44]

If you don't like numbers and analysis don't read this. If you prefer to read hogwash written by idiots, go to one of those sites that does "power rankings" where they rank the Skins at 25th or worse in the NFL with no explanation. On the other hand if you are just a true believer and don't care about all the negative stuff said about our team, good for you. Go have a beer.

I think about this because I like to try to understand what goes into the thinking of winning coaches like Bellichick, Parcell's, Reid and Gibbs as they try to build a team. I believe that these guys can tell you exactly their average field position when both their offense and defense took the field last year, and exactly what they are doing in the offseason to improve it. And they can spout off another 20 stats that they believe affect the final outcome of games and what they are doing with their teams to improve each one. I just like trying to understand some of it because it makes the games more interesting to me. I certainly understand if someone else finds it boring.

So (this is where you should stop reading and go have a beer). . . this morning I looked at the Skin's 2004 schedule and the 2005 schedule. It has been suggested that we have a harder schedule this year from last. After looking at it I don't believe that the schedule will stop us from winning 9 or 10 games. I understand that some teams will improve and some will get worse, but the Redskins will get better, so I'm ranking opponents on last year's numbers.

Based on my own power rankings the 2004 Skins played 4 teams with a Net Team Yards per Play (NTYP) per play of +.5 yards or better and went 2-2 against them. In 2005 we play 5 teams in that category.

Last year we played 2 teams with an NTYP between +.1 and +.4 and lost both games. In 2005 we play 1 team in that category.

So of the teams with a plus NTYP we were 2-4 last year and we have another 6 games this year against that group, so the schedule is not harder so far. There is no reason why we can't go 2-4 against this group again. (TB, Den, SD, St.L, & Phil twice)

Last year we didn't play any teams with zero NTYP and this year we play two teams, so the schedule is harder there, but I believe that the Skins will move into the +1 range and should go at least 1-1 with these teams (Sea & Oak).

Last year we played 8 teams in the range of minus .1 to minus .4 and our record was a dismal 2-6 in these games. In 2005 we play 5 games against these teams. Four of those games are against the Giants and cowboys. The Skins were at -1 NTYP, the Giants were at -2, and the boys were at -3. All three should improve, but the Skins should stay slightly ahead. KC is the other opponent in this range. We need to go 3-2 against this group. In other words stop losing games we should win.

Last year we played 2 games against teams with a NTYP of minus .5 or worse. We won both. In 2005 we play 3 teams and we need to beat all three. (Chi, SF, Ariz).

So 2-4 against the best teams, 1-1 against neutral teams, 3-2 against somewhat negative teams, and 3-0 against the lousy teams gives us a record of 9-7 and a good shot at the playoffs. A break or two and we go 10-6 and definetly are in. Or you could go read Pastabelly or Peter King who are predicting something like 5 wins for the Skins with no explanation other than our coach is old or we drafted a QB in the first round who will never set foot on the field. Take your pick. At least I have a logical process.

[marsbennett]

Originally posted by grimreaper36

Good thread. I like this line of thinking.

Last I noticed our D was 1st in the NFC. I haven't noticed too many people claiming we needed to improve on THAT side of the ball.

You are in denial. The Skins got nada for a pass rush! Hell, even Dallas was tops in overall defense 2 years ago. You stand far better chance of the top overall draft pick than you do making the playoffs....oops...that's right, Denver stands a better chance of the first overall draft pick than The skins making the playoffs.

[marsbennett]

Originally posted by Voice of Reason

You can interpret statistics to show anything you want. With these yards per play statistics in mind, you could probably make a case for each team that it should make the playoffs.

You are, indeed, The Voice of Reason.

[SilentSkin]

Seems like fun, so I'll play.

vs BEARS = WIN

@ COWBOYS = LOSS

vs SEAHAWKS = WIN

@ BRONCOS = LOSS

@ CHIEFS = LOSS

vs 49ERS = WIN

@ GIANTS = WIN

vs EAGLES = LOSS

@ BUCS = WIN

vs RAIDERS = LOSS

vs CHARGERS = LOSS

@ RAMS = WIN

@ CARDINALS = WIN

vs COWBOYS = WIN

vs GIANTS = WIN

@ EAGLES = LOSS

Division Record = 3-3

Sweep the Giants

Split with Dallas

Swept by Eagles

Conference Record = 9-3 (Redskins should OWN tiebreakers!!)

Out of Conference record = 0-4 (AFC WEST own the REDSKINS)

Out of the "very good teams" ( TB, DEN, SD, STL, PHI [twice]): I see the Redskins beating TB and STL. (2-4)

Neutral teams (Sea, Oak). 'Skins beat Seattle. (1-1)

Not so bad teams: (Giants twice, Dallas twice, KC). Redskins sweep the giants, and beat dallas once. (3-2)

Bad Teams (Chi, SF, Arz). Redskins better beat them all, although I think ARZ and Chi will be much tougher than expected. (3-0).

Conclusions: I really do not see the Redskins losing to the Raiders or the Seahawks, but if I "had" to pick one team that would beat the 'Skins at home, it would be the Raiders.

The first half of the season seems a little tougher than the second half. Three very tough away games with

@ Dal, @ KC and @ DEN. If the Redskins can go 4-4 in the first half then I would consider that a success.

It IS possible that the 'Skins lose ALL the first 3 away games, but then they get to beat on '49ers .

[bubba9497]

Originally posted by marsbennett

You are in denial. The Skins got nada for a pass rush! Hell, even Dallas was tops in overall defense 2 years ago. You stand far better chance of the top overall draft pick than you do making the playoffs....oops...that's right, Denver stands a better chance of the first overall draft pick than The skins making the playoffs.

:jerk:

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Originally posted by SilentSkin

Neutral teams (Sea, Oak). 'Skins beat Seattle. (1-1)

Um, did you forget that Oakland is now coached by Norv Turner??...lol No way Gibbs ever loses to Turner...make the Neutral Teams 2-0.

[wskin44]

Originally posted by Voice of Reason

You can interpret statistics to show anything you want. With these yards per play statistics in mind, you could probably make a case for each team that it should make the playoffs.

You CAN interpret statistics to show anything you want, unless you are trying to be honest.

You may not have read what I wrote, but the Net Team Yards per Play more accurately predicted who would be in the playoffs in 2004 than any other stat I could find, including turnovers, time of possession, net overall yardage and was much better than point differentials.

I looked at the exceptions to see what caused them. Turnovers are the first culprit. Tampa Bay had a good NTYP but only won five games. They were minus nine on the turnover scale. Baltimore on the other hand was minus .4 yards NTYP and yet won nine games. They were plus eleven on the turnover scale. I looked more closely at Baltimore's schedule and found that they beat PB in week 2, Roth's first game I believe, and were plus 3 in turnover's. They beat Buffalo who have a much better NTYP, but Balt was plus 4 that day in turnovers. They beat the Jets, were even in turnovers, but the Jets had Q. Carter that day as QB, his first game after Pennington got hurt, and it took a FG in OT to beat them.

I believe that NTYP is a the driving force for who will make the playoffs. Over the course of the season unusual patterns in turnovers, defensive scoring, offensive & defensive red zone success, third down efficiency and abnormally good or bad special teams play can all impact the accuracy of this one stat. But it accurately predicted 10 of 12 playoff teams in 2004 and all 12 playoff teams were in the top 14 of this stat.

Later I'll look at 2003. Right now I've got to fix a fence in the pasture so the horses can can graze.

[Chrisbob74]

Nice anaylsis.

I have to say, stats are something that you look at and see if there are any trends like the one shown here, but to me, it's a case of if the team wins more games the stats will improve, not, improve this stat and the wins will come.

[Chachie]

I think the ultimate and very simple reason the Redskins can play alot better this season is momentum. Coaches returning, QB returning, RB returning, o-line getting healthy, defense returning.

We have been an entirely different team every year for so long that it's actually silly to think we had a chance for the last 5-6 years. No continuity. Period.

I like your math, too. I'm not so good with the math.

[Barney B]

Creative analysis, wskin44. Good for you.

Since you're obviously an ambitious poster, I've got a couple of questions you might research the answer to, IF you feel like it.

Here're the questions:

What is the average gain in Net Team Yards Per Play (from one season to the next) by a team whose head coach is entering his second year with that particular team?

How is the above figure influenced by each head coach's career won/loss percentage?

The point here, which I'm too lazy to prove, is that we can, in almost all cases, expect a substantial increase in NTYPP from a proven winner (such as Joe Gibbs) who is entering his second season with a team (an obvious exception being Parcells' stint in Dallas, where he took the unusual step of releasing his starting QB).

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Originally posted by Chrisbob74

Nice anaylsis.

I have to say, stats are something that you look at and see if there are any trends like the one shown here, but to me, it's a case of if the team wins more games the stats will improve, not, improve this stat and the wins will come.

Stats are also good to use if you want to see if your progressing towards your goals...as fans (and far too many sportwriters as well), we tend to only measure progress in terms of wins and losses...in other words, were the 2004 Skins under Gibbs better than the 2003 Skins under Spurrier??...If you only use wins and losses, then the argument can be made that the team didn't really progress one iota, it stayed stagnant. However, if you look realistically at the stats (and know which stats to look at), you can better gage progress, and determine if the team is moving forward, falling behind, or standing still...

You're right in that wins will improve most stats, not the other way around...but stats can help you determine how close the team is reastically to achieving those wins. When (not "if") the Redskins start winning with regularity next season, the sports media will be saying they didn't see it coming based on last season's performance...and guys like wskins44 will be thinking "Well, you should have seen it coming...the stats all pointed to it."