Yards Per First Down Attempt: Skins 2nd in NFL, what gives?

[gortiz]

I didn't do a lot of research on this ,but I think unlike a lot of trends, there has to be one or two real strong correlations to why the Skins are 2nd overall in the NFL in Yards Per First Down Attempt and 29th overall in 3rd Down Conversion %?? 

 

What gives? 

 

Dallas is 1st and 1st

 

 

[darrelgreenie]

I think 1st down efficiency is more important then YPFDA.

If you throw more then you run on 1st down you will have more YPA but you'll also be less efficient.

The incomplete pass % on 1st down will become 2nd and 10s.

 

Where is that stat from btw?

I don't think there is a direct correlation though.

I think length of 3rd down faced is more important to 3rd down conversion rate then 1st YPA.

[dballer]

A 70 yard bomb to Desean will skew those yards per attempt. 

[Diehard Otis]

Well gortiz I remember Trent Green remarking during the Titans game (and it may have been Burlein) that the low 3rd Down Conversion %age was directly attributed to our inexperience at Quarterback.  It was fascinating commentary, complete with some revealing graphics to buttress his point.

 

That may explain it.

[Morrison J]

DeSean is pretty much the sole reason

[dsciambi]

I'd have to agree with the big plays skewing that stat. We're a run on first down for 2 yards 95% of the time team. Maybe even more than 95%.

[Laron Burgundy]

We have nearly double the 40+ yard passes of the 2nd ranked team. Gaining a first down on 1st doesn't help your ability to convert 3rd downs.

[dballer]

Also, I'd expect that 3rd down number to climb as long as Jordan Reed is healthy, and even more so with Griffin.

[Laxpunk2006]

Yards on first down is a deceptive stat when looking at third down efficiency. If its first and 20 after a penalty picking up 7 yards on a draw looks great towards the stat but you're still in second and (and likely soon to be third and) long.

[Audible_Red40]

Most stats are useless and I think this one is one of them.

[squijoo]

key word "attempt"

 

maybe if it was first yards per first down completion

[Voice_of_Reason]

Quick breakdown:

 

Play Selection on 1st down:

Run: 151 for 498 yards, or 3.2 yards per rush on 1st down. 

Pass: 108 for 1,145, or 11.3 yards per pass attempt on 1st down. NOTE: This includes incomplete passes

Total: 259

 

Of the 108 pass attempts on 1st down:

Complete: 76

Incomplete: 32

Completion percentage of 70.3%

 

Of the rushes:

<=2 yards: 79 (52%) for -20 total yards

3-6 yards: 46 (30%) for  196 yards

>= 7 yards: 26 (17%) for  322 yards

 

There's no single play in the >= yard category that REALLY skews the numbers, the longest run of the year on 1st down was the 29 yarder that Morris had on Monday night.  

 

Of the passes:

<=2 yards: 36 (33%) for 5 yards (this includes incomplete passes)

3-6 yards: 15 (14%) for 71 yards

>=7 yards: 57 (53%) for 1069 yards.

 

Now, of the >= 7 yard category for the passes, there are a few that skew the numbers.  They had:

50+ yards: 8 for 492

30-50 yards: 12 for 467

15-30 yards: 39 for 789

7-15 yards: 74 for 713

 

What does this all mean?  It means that we counter a lot of ineffective plays, including  39 incomplete passes and 79 rushes for 2 or less yards (for a combined -20 yards) with some very explosive plays out of the passing game.  20 plays of 50+ yards or longer on 1st down is very impressive. 

 

As an editorial comment, this analysis furthers my opinion that we run too much for as ineffective as the run game is, especially on first down.  The solution is either to get more production, and Monday night was slightly better, or mix it up and pass more on first down, and run on second.  

 

But the team is getting into 2nd and 8+ 45% of the time.  And in my breakdown in the "Give Alfred the ball more" thread, I pointed out that every one of the drives, save 1, was stalled because of a stuffed run on 1st down.

 

Now, how the 2nd and long translates to 3rd down, I haven't run those numbers.

 

But if you want to score more points, punt less, and win games more easily, then the solution is that they have to get better on first down.

 

Even if the stats say that they're good on first down.  They're not CONSISTENT on 1st down.  And I'd trade some of the explosiveness for a little consistency.  

 

(Which is actually why you run the ball, to be more consistent, along with other things.)

 

EDIT: I did all of these calculations myself based on a data set of play-by-play breakdown by NFLSavant.com.  You can download the play-by-play data for the entire league in a .csv file and play with it to your heart's content.   They've got a TON of data out there.  It's basically the same data set that a lot of the analytic sites use as their basis for analysis.  

Most stats are useless and I think this one is one of them.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.  

 

This definitely fits into that category. 

[darrelgreenie]

Which creates more 2nd and 10s?

1st down passes or 1st down runs result in

[Voice_of_Reason]

Which creates more 2nd and 10s?

1st down passes or 1st down runs result in

Runs.  

 

They rushed for 0 or less yards 43 times out of 151 attempts, resulting in a 2nd and 10 or longer on 28% of their running plays. Total yards on those plays were -73.

 

For passes, they had either passes for 0 or negative yards, or incomplete passes 32 times or 29% of the time they passed on 1st down, but the total yardage there was 0.

 

But, even with the percentages, 43 times when they rushed they ended up in 2nd and 10+, and 32 times when they passed.

[Stefanskins]

Quick breakdown:

 

Nice breakdown VoR..good read... thanks

[Voice_of_Reason]

I just thought of something in the analysis. I might have made an error, will have to look after work.

[Kindred]

I found it amusing that the NFL folks seem to think we have the 23rd best QB...whomever our QB might be

 

 

 

After Dalton

 

 

 

20. Ryan Tannehill (23) 
21. Kyle Orton (N/A) 
22. Nick Foles (20)
23. Redskins quarterback (N/A)
24. Brian Hoyer (24)

 

 

 

QB Index: Midseason starting quarterback rankings - NFL.com

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000419983/article/qb-index-midseason-starting-quarterback-rankings

[darrelgreenie]

VOR-

I could justify more 1st down passes in exchange for more 2nd down runs and more back to back runs.

I'm convinced Jay's aversion to calling back to back runs is a real play calling tendency to break/ watch out for.

[Warhead36]

Quick breakdown:

 

Play Selection on 1st down:

Run: 151 for 498 yards, or 3.2 yards per rush on 1st down. 

Pass: 108 for 1,145, or 11.3 yards per pass attempt on 1st down. NOTE: This includes incomplete passes

Total: 259

 

Of the 108 pass attempts on 1st down:

Complete: 76

Incomplete: 32

Completion percentage of 70.3%

 

Of the rushes:

<=2 yards: 79 (52%) for -20 total yards

3-6 yards: 46 (30%) for  196 yards

>= 7 yards: 26 (17%) for  322 yards

 

There's no single play in the >= yard category that REALLY skews the numbers, the longest run of the year on 1st down was the 29 yarder that Morris had on Monday night.  

 

Of the passes:

<=2 yards: 36 (33%) for 5 yards (this includes incomplete passes)

3-6 yards: 15 (14%) for 71 yards

>=7 yards: 57 (53%) for 1069 yards.

 

Now, of the >= 7 yard category for the passes, there are a few that skew the numbers.  They had:

50+ yards: 8 for 492

30-50 yards: 12 for 467

15-30 yards: 39 for 789

7-15 yards: 74 for 713

 

What does this all mean?  It means that we counter a lot of ineffective plays, including  39 incomplete passes and 79 rushes for 2 or less yards (for a combined -20 yards) with some very explosive plays out of the passing game.  20 plays of 50+ yards or longer on 1st down is very impressive. 

 

As an editorial comment, this analysis furthers my opinion that we run too much for as ineffective as the run game is, especially on first down.  The solution is either to get more production, and Monday night was slightly better, or mix it up and pass more on first down, and run on second.  

 

But the team is getting into 2nd and 8+ 45% of the time.  And in my breakdown in the "Give Alfred the ball more" thread, I pointed out that every one of the drives, save 1, was stalled because of a stuffed run on 1st down.

 

Now, how the 2nd and long translates to 3rd down, I haven't run those numbers.

 

But if you want to score more points, punt less, and win games more easily, then the solution is that they have to get better on first down.

 

Even if the stats say that they're good on first down.  They're not CONSISTENT on 1st down.  And I'd trade some of the explosiveness for a little consistency.  

 

(Which is actually why you run the ball, to be more consistent, along with other things.)

 

EDIT: I did all of these calculations myself based on a data set of play-by-play breakdown by NFLSavant.com.  You can download the play-by-play data for the entire league in a .csv file and play with it to your heart's content.   They've got a TON of data out there.  It's basically the same data set that a lot of the analytic sites use as their basis for analysis.  

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.  

 

This definitely fits into that category. 

Nice stats. I too have noticed and talked about how much our run game sucks when people keep saying "omg we should run the ball more!" We are NOT a good running team. We are a passing team. We should pass more until we become more consistent in the run game.

 

We have way too many running plays where we lose yards. I know you brought this up during the Dallas gameday thread, as did I, but we have to be among the league leaders if not THE league leaders in running plays that result in 0 or negative yards. That completely cripples drives.

[Voice_of_Reason]

I just thought of something in the analysis. I might have made an error, will have to look after work.

Ok, so I made a mistake on the rushing stats.  The way the file was received, I goofed. All the passing stats are correct, but the rushing are different. The issue was that I used a field called "ISPass" to select both rush and pass.  But that means that penalties got lumped in with rushes.  Ooops.  So, revised, which makes the rushing stats looks slightly better. 

 

Rushes by bracket

<=2 yards: 58 (52%) for 9 total yards

3-6 yards: 46 (30%) for  196 yards

>= 7 yards: 26 (17%) for  322 yards

 

As for 2nd and 10, now that's where the difference really is.  

 

There were 22 times when running on 1st down net a 2nd and 10 or longer. 

 

So, if you're looking at 2nd and 10+, you get something out of the running game, in that you're in that position less than if you pass.   

 

But if you look at 2nd and 8+, then you're back to the passing game being more effective.

 

I still think my point holds with these stats.  The running game on 1st down is poor.  More than half the time they don't get more than 2 yards, or lose yardage.  If getting to 2nd and 8 is better than 2nd and 10, I guess there's a point there, but given that they aren't real good at picking up 2nd and 8 either, I don't really see how the two are that different.

[skinny21]

VOR-

I could justify more 1st down passes in exchange for more 2nd down runs and more back to back runs.

I'm convinced Jay's aversion to calling back to back runs is a real play calling tendency to break/ watch out for.

It's funny, but the Dallas game I saw some back to back runs and a ton of 1st down runs - to the point that I was getting irritated. Yet it worked. We ran a bit better than some previous games and we started hitting PA late in the game on first downs. Still think running on 15 of the first 16 first downs was overkill, but again, it worked (as in we won the game).

[Laron Burgundy]

It's funny, but the Dallas game I saw some back to back runs and a ton of 1st down runs - to the point that I was getting irritated. Yet it worked. We ran a bit better than some previous games and we started hitting PA late in the game on first downs. Still think running on 15 of the first 16 first downs was overkill, but again, it worked (as in we won the game).

 

I wonder if that was just us being gimmicky like how we played our defense all at the line of scrimmage or if we generally want to play more like that.  It was a much more balanced attack than what we had done previously.  I'm really curious to see how this next game will look with rg3 in..

[Voice_of_Reason]

Nice stats. I too have noticed and talked about how much our run game sucks when people keep saying "omg we should run the ball more!" We are NOT a good running team. We are a passing team. We should pass more until we become more consistent in the run game.

 

We have way too many running plays where we lose yards. I know you brought this up during the Dallas gameday thread, as did I, but we have to be among the league leaders if not THE league leaders in running plays that result in 0 or negative yards. That completely cripples drives.

I don't know if we need to pass more, but I just keep saying that running the same crap over and over and getting the same results is the definition of lunacy.  

 

Do something different, and for God's sake, with these results, don't run on 90% of first downs.  

 

I look at any run that doesn't get 3 yards as a failure.  DG disagrees.  Shrug.  

 

We need less runs for less than 3 yards.  And I personally would be willing to trade a few incomplete passes, since we're completing 70% of first down throws, for the added benefit of being in 2nd and short more often. 

It's funny, but the Dallas game I saw some back to back runs and a ton of 1st down runs - to the point that I was getting irritated. Yet it worked. We ran a bit better than some previous games and we started hitting PA late in the game on first downs. Still think running on 15 of the first 16 first downs was overkill, but again, it worked (as in we won the game).

Actually, it didn't really work.  Numerous drives were killed because of stuffed runs on 1st down.  And at one point, they had run on 1st down 22 of 24 times. 

 

There was only one drive where they ran effectively.  One.  First drive of the second half.  Otherwise, it was all bupkis.  

VOR-

I could justify more 1st down passes in exchange for more 2nd down runs and more back to back runs.

I'm convinced Jay's aversion to calling back to back runs is a real play calling tendency to break/ watch out for.

Running on all but 4 first downs, for a team that doesn't run well, is terrible, awful play calling.  

 

I don't think Jay has an aversion to calling back to back runs.  I think that he's trying to run early, but because over half of the runs result in a 2nd and 8 or longer, he feels he has to pass in order to get 2 shots to pick up a first down.  Because the difference between 3rd and 8 after an incomplete pass, and 3rd and 6, after another stuffed run, is virtually the same for this pass offense.

 

To me it seems like he's trying everything he possibly can to get into second and manageable, and get Alfred his carries.  Maybe against the Vikings it turns around with Griffin at QB.  I actually think the running game will really get a spark with Griffin at QB.  

 

If they were running effectively, then I'd be more inclined to agree with you.  But they're not.  So calling more runs or back to back runs when you're not being very effective to begin with is challenging.  

[skinny21]

I don't know if we need to pass more, but I just keep saying that running the same crap over and over and getting the same results is the definition of lunacy.

Do something different, and for God's sake, with these results, don't run on 90% of first downs.

I look at any run that doesn't get 3 yards as a failure. DG disagrees. Shrug.

We need less runs for less than 3 yards. And I personally would be willing to trade a few incomplete passes, since we're completing 70% of first down throws, for the added benefit of being in 2nd and short more often.

Actually, it didn't really work. Numerous drives were killed because of stuffed runs on 1st down. And at one point, they had run on 1st down 22 of 24 times.

There was only one drive where they ran effectively. One. First drive of the second half. Otherwise, it was all bupkis.

Running on all but 4 first downs, for a team that doesn't run well, is terrible, awful play calling.

I don't think Jay has an aversion to calling back to back runs. I think that he's trying to run early, but because over half of the runs result in a 2nd and 8 or longer, he feels he has to pass in order to get 2 shots to pick up a first down. Because the difference between 3rd and 8 after an incomplete pass, and 3rd and 6, after another stuffed run, is virtually the same for this pass offense.

To me it seems like he's trying everything he possibly can to get into second and manageable, and get Alfred his carries. Maybe against the Vikings it turns around with Griffin at QB. I actually think the running game will really get a spark with Griffin at QB.

If they were running effectively, then I'd be more inclined to agree with you. But they're not. So calling more runs or back to back runs when you're not being very effective to begin with is challenging.

Regarding your reply to my quote - that's why I included the parenthesis.

The thing about running on 1st and second (and only getting 2 yards a pop) is that it leaves you in a more manageable 3rd down. With that said, the balance needs to be there. Yes, there's the advantage of surprising people when you break your tendencies, but most of the time you're giving the defense an advantage in knowing what to expect. I'd much rather see things switched up - run, run, pass; pass, run, pass, etc.

I've heard much of Gruden's PA stems off the power running game, but to me that's a failure in coaching. I'd much rather us continue to use outside zone runs from the previous regime (with bootlegs etc. in the PA game) while also incorporating the rest (his power running/PA). It's a shame because there's a lot I like about Gruden. Most of the players already have significant experience running outside zone, so it's not like it would have to be practiced extensively, but it could be one more tool in the toolbox.

[darrelgreenie]

Ok, so I made a mistake on the rushing stats..... 

 

So, if you're looking at 2nd and 10+, you get something out of the running game, in that you're in that position less than if you pass.

Thank you, and this was my point from our previous discussion. You said that running on 1st down puts us "behind the sticks" on 2nd down. But as the stats show even our current running game (which we both agree has been poor) so even our 'poor' running game puts us "behind the sticks" on 2nd down less then passing.   

 

But if you look at 2nd and 8+, then you're back to the passing game being more effective.

I am bit confused...wouldn't 2nd and 8+ does that capture 2nd 8-10?

 

I still think my point holds with these stats.  The running game on 1st down is poor.  More than half the time they don't get more than 2 yards, or lose yardage.  If getting to 2nd and 8 is better than 2nd and 10, I guess there's a point there, but given that they aren't real good at picking up 2nd and 8 either, I don't really see how the two are that different.

We both agree that running game has been poor. We disagree on why its poor and how to make it better. I think it is poor because of playcalling and think improve will come through more focus on the running. You believe the running is just poor and think the solution is to quit. But I think the Titans and Dallas game show the benefits of increased focus on the running game. I even mentioned some specific differences in Jay's run game then the previous regime i.e. outside zone and toss/pitch and did you notice that there was more outside zone and toss/pitch in the Dallas game?

 

We are having a good coversation don't diminish it "if getting to 2nd and 8 is better than 2nd and 10, I guess there's a point there". You move the goal posts when you say that they're not good at picking up 2nd and 8. That's wasn't the point of our discussion. And converting an eventual 1st down from either 2nd and 8 vs 2nd and 10 is very different. 2nd and 10 is almost a 'must pass' down where 2nd and 8 is more of an open playcall down. 2nd and 8 you could run the ball again and even with out poor running game end up with 3rd and 6 or less.

 

Also, without getting too preachy about football game theory short runs 0-2 yards are valuable in ways that incomplete passes will never be. (1) they give you time of possension (2) it sets up play-action. From coaching experience I've been on both sides and know 1st hand that when your defense is killing their run they are ripe for play-action and as an offensive coach we called play-action when specific players were commiting their run fits aggressively because they're having success stopping the run.