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Yards Per First Down Attempt: Skins 2nd in NFL, what gives?


gortiz

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It's funny, but the Dallas game I saw some back to back runs and a ton of 1st down runs - to the point that I was getting irritated. Yet it worked. We ran a bit better than some previous games and we started hitting PA late in the game on first downs. Still think running on 15 of the first 16 first downs was overkill, but again, it worked (as in we won the game).

I didn't notice many back to back runs, it something I keep an eye out for but I didn't chart it.

iirc there were only a couple back to back runs and they come in atypical down and distances.

But, I agree like I said in my previous post that would willing trade some 1st down runs for some 2nd down runs. My aim is to avoid patterns and tendencies. If Jay would have capitalized during the game with 1st down play-action as a tendency breaker then establishing that tendency to the extent that he would have been justified. But, my guess is Jay reminded himself that he (a) needed to eat time off the clock (b.) needed to get the running game going (c.) didn't trust himself to call enough runs if he didn't call them on 1st down. And Jay goes into the Vikings game with an established tendency of 1st down run, so look for some 1st down play-action early.

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What does this all mean?  It means that we counter a lot of ineffective plays, including  39 incomplete passes and 79 rushes for 2 or less yards (for a combined -20 yards) with some very explosive plays out of the passing game.  20 plays of 50+ yards or longer on 1st down is very impressive.

 

I think you mean 20 plays of 30+ yards, not 50...

 

Great breakdown, though *thumbsup*

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I think its really just simple ... 3rd down conversion is low because our run game isn't as strong as it was before, especially when its 3rd and short and Helu gets the carry ... ~ 20% of the time he doesn't get out of the backfield and loses yards.  If he's our 3rd down back ... then we've got to face facts ... its going to be a pass, or the next play is a punt.

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I didn't notice many back to back runs, it something I keep an eye out for but I didn't chart it.

iirc there were only a couple back to back runs and they come in atypical down and distances.

But, I agree like I said in my previous post that would willing trade some 1st down runs for some 2nd down runs. My aim is to avoid patterns and tendencies. If Jay would have capitalized during the game with 1st down play-action as a tendency breaker then establishing that tendency to the extent that he would have been justified. But, my guess is Jay reminded himself that he (a) needed to eat time off the clock (b.) needed to get the running game going (c.) didn't trust himself to call enough runs if he didn't call them on 1st down. And Jay goes into the Vikings game with an established tendency of 1st down run, so look for some 1st down play-action early.

Yeah, not many back to back runs, but more than I'd noticed in the past is what I meant. Also noticed the toss play in use - I know many have complained about it's use in the recent past, but at least they were changing things up a bit. I agree with you DG that I don't want to see us "give up" on the run... but that we do need to tweak it a bit - whether through play calling, breaking tendencies, game planning (more outside zone, etc.) or devoting more practice time to it. I do like that Gruden has used the read option a bit.

Also agree - good convo!

I think its really just simple ... 3rd down conversion is low because our run game isn't as strong as it was before, especially when its 3rd and short and Helu gets the carry ... ~ 20% of the time he doesn't get out of the backfield and loses yards. If he's our 3rd down back ... then we've got to face facts ... its going to be a pass, or the next play is a punt.

Does that 20% change if you isolate it to 3rd down runs?

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I think its really just simple ... 3rd down conversion is low because our run game isn't as strong as it was before, especially when its 3rd and short and Helu gets the carry ... ~ 20% of the time he doesn't get out of the backfield and loses yards.  If he's our 3rd down back ... then we've got to face facts ... its going to be a pass, or the next play is a punt.

 

Helu has only been used on 3rd and short 2 times. Neither time did he get stuffed in the backfield and lose yards.

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Third down conversions have been an issue for several seasons now though It has really been bad this year.  It was even an issue in 2012 (and not just when we were bad).  I suspect it has some to do with the fact that if the offense is working (on a drive-by-drive basis), we don't get to third down very often.  This year, add the fact that our running game and short passing game has been inconsitent so far.

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Helu has only been used on 3rd and short 2 times. Neither time did he get stuffed in the backfield and lose yards.

Helu has 5 carries on 3rd down resulting in:  1 first down, 3 punts, 2 times <= 0 yards; and, has been featured (runner or receiver) on 13 3rd downs total resulting in:  3 first downs, 10 4th downs, 3 times <=0 yards

 

Interestingly ... Morris has only featured in 3 3rd downs this season.  1 run against the Seahawks for -1 yd, 2 runs against Houston -1 and 9 yds.  The latter was the last play of the first half far from the end zone.

 

So the "power" running game isn't ... 8 runs on 3rd down resulting in 1 first down, and half the time the runner doesn't gain yards at all.

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