The Rule that helps predict NFL quarterback success or failure

Hey there,

I found an interesting stat (Call it the Rule of 26-27-60), which seems to be an good indicator for QB success at the next level. It was posted by John Lopz from SI (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/john_lopez/07/08/qb.rule/index.html#ixzz1ABLjJpuR) and I tried to get a look out for the upcoming draft, who could be a good pick for us:

Here is the gist of it: If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.

Compl.

Percentage GS Wonderlic test still missing for all players

McElroy, Greg

65,8% 27

Griffin III, Robert

64,4% 28

Luck, Andrew

63,9% 24

Ponder, Christian

62,1% 34

Gabbert, Blaine

61,2% 31 (GS 26 if you didn´t consider the Freshmen year)

Mallett, Ryan

60% 36 (GS 25 if you didn´t consider the Freshmen year)

Kaepernick, Colin

58,2% 50

Taylor, Tyrod

57,4% 49

Locker, Jake

53,9% 40

One short note to the Data I got it from NCAA.com but there was no stat about the Games started just played in so this could mean Gabbert and Mallett miss out on this requirement.

I think we will draft a Qb not sure if it will be in the 1st round but we will see what the rule will be worth after a while. But it seems as if it is quite a reliable one, esapcially when you take a look at the stats below!

comparison data

success

Name

Wonderlic Starts Completion Percentage

Peyton Manning

28 45 63 %

Philip Rivers

30 49 64 %

Drew Brees

28 36 61%

Tony Romo sits to pee

37 35 62 %

Matt Schaub

31 36 67 %

Eli Manning

39 38 61 %

Kyle Orton

26 37 60%

Kevin Kolb

28 47 62 %

Matt Ryan

32 28 60 %

Ryan Fitzpatrick

48 28 60%

Failure

Player

Wonderlic Starts Completion Percentage

Ryan Leaf

27 24 53%

Joey Harrington

32 26 55%

Akili Smith

26 11 58%

Tim Couch

22 27 67%

David Carr

24 26 62%

JaMarcus Russell

24 29 61%

not really superstars

Daunte Culpepper

18 43 64%

Vince Young

16 32 61% (behavioural problems )

exemptions

Player

Wonderlic Starts Completion Percentage

Jay Cutler

26 43 57%

Ben Roethlisberger

25 38 65%

Joe Flacco

27 22 64%

Michael Vick

20 21 56%

Favre 22 Wonderlic

McNabb 14 Wonderlic

2010 Draft

Player

Wonderlic Starts Completion Percentage

Sam Bradford

36 31 67%

Colt McCoy

25 53 70 %

Tim Tebow

22 42 67 %

Jimmy Clausen 23 35 63%

Hope we´ll get a successful QB whoever it will be!

HTTR:dallasuck

Your insight would make an interesting post in this thread:

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?342850-Are-people-looking-at-the-wrong-stats-when-assessing-QBs-can-we-come-up-with-something-better&referrerid=71857

Your insight would make an interesting post in this thread:

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?342850-Are-people-looking-at-the-wrong-stats-when-assessing-QBs-can-we-come-up-with-something-better&referrerid=71857

Mods - please merge

Good point on Vick, who is exempt because he's never been a great quarterback but rather a great athlete at quarterback.

interesting stats,

thanks for the research.

wow, very cool. bradford was off the charts.

i think, for college they should up the comp % to maybe 62.5 or 65%. it is so easy to complete passes in college, for even an average qb.

Didn't Shuler get something like a 12 on his wunderlic? No wonder he's in congress. I recall Campbell scoring in the low teens the first time, and the retaking it after intense tutoring. Too bad Gibbs ignored his own maxim of "Bring me smart players."

wow, very cool. bradford was off the charts.

i think, for college they should up the comp % to maybe 62.5 or 65%. it is so easy to complete passes in college, for even an average qb.

My position with college players is that it's easier to determine who you should NOT draft than who you should.

Akili Smith was an insane pick. He played one year and put up pedestrian numbers. The debate between Manning and Leaf was one of performance versus potential. I think everyone at the time agreed that Manning would be good. The fear was that Leaf had the potential to be better - even though he never really showed it. But anyone looking at their college careers should have seen that Manning was by miles safer. Leaf should have been an end of the first round type pick - someone you trade your second rounder for. If Ryan Leaf had been the #29 pick in the first round, people would have forgotten his name by now.

The Steelers and Ravens seem to do this better than anyone. Not all their early picks are superstars. But they seem to know who NOT to draft. Even when they bust, it is a Mark Clayton type bust - someone who is a journeyman type player. (The Limas Sweed pick is the one really black mark on the Steelers' recent drafts).

I'm trying to understand your first table. No one has a 3rd number (Wonderlic Test) except for Gabbert and Mallett. I assume that's because no one has taken the test yet and the numbers for Gabbert and Mallett are the actual games started, so wondered why you included the column for Wonderlic.

Also, any reason you didn't include Cam Newton or are these only QBs that started 27 or more games?

For the record, the one thing that throws me is evaluating spread option QBs. If I was a GM, I would probably avoid them at all costs. I just don't know how you evaluate them.

Where is Ponder projected to be drafted? He seems like someone worth taking a mid-round shot on.

\Here is the gist of it: If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.

I really agree with this post here (not the dallas sucks part ). College starts is something that often get over looked (although I'd put the number at 21 or 22). Some guys will ultimately be successfull despite not meeting the criteria, but I would never take a guy in the top5 who didn't meet this criteria. For me to take a guy in the top 10-15 who only hit 2/3, he would've had to been very impressive in the senior bowl and workouts (meaning I could still take Locker, but he needs to impress scouts in workouts).

NCAA homepage was creating a failure when I was looking for the stats of Cam

and I changed the first chart, of course no Wonderlic test for each of em but the starts could get mixed up due to missing data

and I would insist on a lot of starts, cause for some position they are absolutely important, QB, LT...

RB & Co maybe should have just a few starts to keep the mileage down but the other need every start they can get, see Manning, Rivers

For the record' date=' the one thing that throws me is evaluating spread option QBs. If I was a GM, I would probably avoid them at all costs. I just don't know how you evaluate them.

Where is Ponder projected to be drafted? He seems like someone worth taking a mid-round shot on.[/quote']

Looks like Ponder is being projected as a second rounder.

how about kellen moore? they say he is a film rat so if in one of the senior bowls he can smoothly lead a pro style offense i wonder how good he can be? what are his numbers in this equation?

OMG!!! McNabb got a 14 wonderlic? Is that accurate? And people made a big deal about Vince Young's score. He beat out McNabb. I think we know why he couldn't pick up the offense if that number is correct.

Those Wonderlic scores are hilarious!

Very interesting...

how about kellen moore? they say he is a film rat so if in one of the senior bowls he can smoothly lead a pro style offense i wonder how good he can be? what are his numbers in this equation?

The important numbers with him are 6'0 and 170 - his height and weight. Teams are going to be afraid that he will break in half. (It's kind of amazing but Grossman apparently has 60 pounds on him).

I'm pretty sure that the likes of Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw did lousy on the wonderlic. No one can say either flopped........

I'm pretty sure that the likes of Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw did lousy on the wonderlic. No one can say either flopped........

both had a 15

I'm pretty sure that the likes of Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw did lousy on the wonderlic. No one can say either flopped........

So, obviously the entire idea should be ****-canned. There was an exception to the rule.

To me, this is the equivalent of saying "I've driven home drunk 100 times and never had an accident. Therefore, driving drunk is perfectly safe."

So Eli (39) is smarter than Peyton (28). Who knew?

Slide Matt Leinart (35-39-64) into your failure category as well. Alex Smith (45-26-66) doesn't officially make the list because he falls one game short but I seriously doubt that one game would have made the difference. Bust. Charlie Whitehurst (33-43-60). Bust I'm sure I could find quite a few more if I dug any deeper.

Sorry, this rule is hardly a rule.

So, obviously the entire idea should be ****-canned. There was an exception to the rule.

To me, this is the equivalent of saying "I've driven home drunk 100 times and never had an accident. Therefore, driving drunk is perfectly safe."

That is quite rediculous, I am not saying there are one or two......or only three exceptions. There are quite a few either way on the wonderlic rule. NFL owners tend look for players who score higher than a 21. Most of the current NFL starters have scored a 21 or higher.

Some examples:

Ryan Leaf - 27

J.P. Losman 31

Drew Henson - 42

Kyle Boller - 27

Ken Dorsey - 25

Rex Grossman - 26

Josh McNown - 28

Rick Mirer - 31

Matt Leinart - 35

Akili Smith - 37

Charlie Frye - 38

Sage Rosenfels - 32

Alex Smith - 40

P.S. Add Jim Kelly to the 15 list.....

That's almost how Parcells figures out who he wants. He had to start at least 2 years and be a winner. There is more but I can't remember.