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Arctic Melting Fast; May Swamp U.S. Coasts by 2099

Arctic Melting Fast; May Swamp U.S. Coasts by 2099

Brian Handwerk

for National Geographic News

November 9, 2004

Scientists have determined that the ice in Greenland and the Arctic is melting so rapidly that much of it could be gone by the end of the century. (See photos from the Arctic.)

The results could be catastrophic for polar people and animals, while low-lying lands as far away as Florida could be inundated by rising sea levels. (Read a story, see a map of how warming may toast Florida's coast).

040421_earthday.jpg

Using computer models, scientists have created a series of maps that show areas susceptible to rises in sea level. The above map shows that a 6-meter (20-foot) rise would swamp Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, and the entire Florida coastline, in addition to parts of Orlando and other inland areas.

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment was released yesterday. It will be discussed by the Arctic Council (the governments of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the U.S., as well as six indigenous-peoples organizations) at a meeting in Iceland today.

The four-year study of the Arctic climate involved an international team of more than 300 scientists. They used a number of climate models and made a "moderate estimate" of future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that are widely believed to be contributing to the recent warming trend of the Earth's climate.

The study concluded that in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia, average temperatures have increased as much as 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit (3 to 4 degrees Celsius) in the past 50 years, nearly twice the global average. Temperatures are projected to rise 7 to 13 degrees Fahrenheit (4 to 7 degrees Celsius) over the next hundred years.

The rising temperatures are likely to cause the melting of at least half the Arctic sea ice by the end of the century. A significant portion of the Greenland ice sheet—which contains enough water to raise the worldwide sea level by about 23 feet (about 7 meters)—would also melt.

The consequences of such a massive meltdown of northern ice would be dramatic, according to the study.

• Low-lying coastal areas in Florida and Louisiana could be flooded by the sea. A 1.5 feet (50-centimeter) rise in sea level could cause the coastline to move 150 feet (45 meters) inland, resulting in substantial economic, social, and environmental impact in low-lying areas.

• The health and food security of some indigenous peoples would be threatened, challenging the survival of some cultures.

• Should the Arctic become ice-free in summer, it is likely that polar bears and some seal species would become extinct.

• The melting of so much ice, and the resulting addition of so much fresh water to the ocean, could impact the circulation of currents and affect regional climate.

Science and Policy

Susan Joy Hassol is an independent global warming analyst and author of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) synthesis report Impacts of a Warming Arctic.

The assessment was four years in the making, made possible by the work of some 300 scientists from nations around the world.

"We found that scientific observations and those of indigenous people over many generations are meshing," Hassol said from her Denver office. "Sea ice is retreating, glaciers are reducing in size, permafrost is thawing, all [these indicators] provide strong evidence that it has been warming rapidly in the Arctic in recent decades."

As the Arctic evolves, climate around the world may be severely altered.

"The Arctic is the air conditioner for the world and we're looking at having a less efficient air conditioner," Hassol noted.

The report strived to stay out of the realm of policy but certainly gives decision makers some food for thought.

"I think that, from a scientific point of view, we try to present facts," she said. "It really is a fact that in order to slow climate change we need to start now. A climate system is like a supertanker, you can't turn on a dime so you have to turn the wheel now to avoid that iceberg [far] ahead."

Mark Serreze is a polar sea ice expert at the University of Colorado, Boulder. He's seen dramatic Arctic changes over the past 25 years.

"What's really interesting is that the past three summers (2002, 2003, and 2004) have been characterized by record or near record minimums [of total Arctic sea ice area]," Serreze said. "It begs the question: Have we approached a threshold beyond which large parts of the ice are unable to survive the summer? We don't know."

Serreze believes the ACIA findings illustrate that at least some Arctic changes are due to global warming, but cautions that the extent is difficult to discern.

"The Arctic is changing and changing rapidly, there is absolutely no doubt about that," he said. "It's the attribution that is difficult. You always have to remember the climate system, and the Arctic in particular, are inherently variable. It's difficult to separate natural variability from greenhouse gasses. It's not black-and-white."

People Are Already Affected

"The impacts of global warming are affecting people now in the Arctic," said Robert Corell, chairperson of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, in a news release. "The Arctic is experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on Earth. The impacts of climate change on the region and the globe are projected to increase substantially in the years to come."

In a separate statement released with the assessment, the Arctic indigenous peoples said they are asking the eight Arctic countries to use the assessment to show leadership in the field of global warming.

"Everything is under threat," said Chief Gary Harrison of the Arctic Athabaskan Council. "Our homes are threatened by storms and melting permafrost, our livelihoods are threatened by changes to the plants and animals we harvest. Even our lives are threatened, as traditional travel routes become dangerous."

"The Arctic is the early warning for the rest of the world," said Sheila Watt-Cloutier of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference. "What happens to the planet happens first in the Arctic. Protect the Arctic and we save the planet. … We must all take what action we can to slow the pace of climate change, while there is still time."

The indigenous peoples are also asking for help with adapting to global warming impacts.

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Johnny Punani2

Johnny Punani2

Posted
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http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1246/

ARE THE POLAR ICE CAPS REALLY MELTING?

Written June 20, 2001

By Joe D'Aleo

Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

Among the many environmental stories we have heard in recent years is that the polar ice caps are in rapid decline, causing sea levels to rise rapidly, another sure sign that global warming is here and already a problem. There was even a news story this past year suggesting that at the current rate of decline, the arctic ice could vanish in just a few decades.

Is the ice really vanishing? When we look at the data (like the snow cover over the continents in the middle-latitude winters) we find rather large year-to-year differences in the polar ice cover, however the longer-term trends are not what these news reports may lead you to believe.

The data indeed does show that the ice cover extent in both hemispheres is less now than a quarter century ago, but the decline was compressed into a few years during the 1970s. And, in fact, the ice cover has either been steady or slowly increasing since then.

THE REAL CAUSES ARE PROBABLY IN AND OVER THE OCEANS

These changes may have very little to do with any CO2 warming, but are examples of cyclical changes that have probably always been happening. The cause is more likely to be slowly varying ocean circulations and related atmospheric changes.

We have reported on such changes in recent stories. In the Atlantic, the North Atlantic Oscillation changed from a predominantly negative mode in the period from the 1940s to the 1970s to a predominantly positive mode from then until 1995 when it again changed to negative.

During the positive phases of the NAO, stronger southwesterly winds in the North Atlantic drive a faster current under the arctic ice, causing it to thin from the bottom. In the negative phase, the winds diminish or even turn easterly and the sub-ice current weakens, allowing it to thicken. See http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm.

Greenland icecap studies by NASA have shown a mixed picture with some thinning, especially near the edges and some thickening, especially near the core. Again the ice cover here is very likely affected by the same cyclical changes in the North Atlantic oceans and atmosphere.

Researchers at the Jet Propulsion Lab and the University of Washington have published papers on similar cycles in the Pacific, which they call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It changed mode around 1977 and again in 1997.

The PDO affects the frequency and strength of El Nino and La Nina events and through them has an influence on mean global weather patterns. During the so-called cool phase of the PDO (1947-77), we saw twice as many La Ninas as El Ninos, La Ninas were stronger and often lasted longer then the El Ninos. In the warm phase from 1977 to 1997, we saw the opposite with twice as many El Ninos as La Ninas. The El Ninos were stronger and often lasted longer than the La Ninas. El Ninos have an overall warming affect on both land and sea, while La Ninas favor cooling.

These cycle phase shifts in the Atlantic and Pacific 1970s and again the middle 1990s correspond well with the trend changes in the ice extent near both the north and south poles. And if these cycles are responsible, then one might expect the new "increasing or increased ice" trends to continue for some time as these cycles historically have lasted for a few decades.

GLOBAL WARMING COULD, AT LEAST FOR A TIME, LEAD TO MORE ICE AND SNOW IN POLAR REGIONS…NOT LESS

One last point on this subject is warranted. High latitude warming does not automatically mean a rapid melting of the polar ice would take place. In fact, it might very well mean more snow and ice cover. Take Antarctica for example. The South Pole averages more than 50 degrees below zero annually and averages below the freezing mark even during the warmest month. Warming of a few degrees would certainly not cause massive melting, but rather more snow and an increasing snow pack. This paradoxical effect is called the Simpson Effect, after a British Scientist who decades ago proposed that a moderate warming would lead to more snow and ice in high latitudes. This is because warmer (though still well below freezing) temperatures would bring more moisture and thus greater snowfall.

Ironically, this could in fact lead to a fall in sea level, as moisture evaporated from the oceans would be semi-permanently deposited in the form of snow and ice in high latitudes.

One could speculate that the increase in the Antarctic ice extent reflects the Simpson Effect and is the result of global warming. However, surface observations show 98% of Antarctica is colder than it was 20 years ago, so other natural factors (like the cycles in the ocean or on the sun) are more likely the cause.

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iheartskins

iheartskins

Posted
Posted
Originally posted by Johnny Punani

you should considering it's a reality

I don't know if it is. You, Mr. Punani, know better than I do given that you are a meteoroligist, correct? My take on the whole thing is that the Earth has gone through eons of change in temperature and that while we, as humans, have certainly either accelerated or slowed the change that was already taking place, there isn't a complete causaul nexus between our actions and the changes in Global temps. Do I have any scientific data to back this up? No--but I have a hunch--for whatever little that's worth.

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Johnny Punani2

Johnny Punani2

Posted
Posted
Originally posted by iheartskins

I don't know if it is. You, Mr. Punani, know better than I do given that you are a meteoroligist, correct? My take on the whole thing is that the Earth has gone through eons of change in temperature and that while we, as humans, have certainly either accelerated or slowed the change that was already taking place, there isn't a complete causaul nexus between our actions and the changes in Global temps. Do I have any scientific data to back this up? No--but I have a hunch--for whatever little that's worth.

casual nexus? wtf? calm down Data...

The earth is getting warmer but only slightly. Also, we don't know the exact cause of it nor man's total impact. So, I think it's kind of foolish for people to make totally absurd predictions like this thread is based on.

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iheartskins

iheartskins

Posted
Posted
Originally posted by Johnny Punani

casual nexus? wtf? calm down Data...

The earth is getting warmer but only slightly. Also, we don't know the exact cause of it nor man's total impact. So, I think it's kind of foolish for people to make totally absurd predictions like this thread is based on.

Sorry Johnny--I'll try to dumb it down for you next time. :)

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