2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's the likely outcome with the chalk-y results. Even if the Pats beat the Jets in Week 18, we have too much to overcome re: SOS. Now, if the Pats somehow upset the Chiefs or Bills or Broncos the next two weeks, that changes everything.

 

 

Now, if the Pats upset, say, the Broncos, here's the order:

 

 

If the first scenario holds, and the Jets beat the Pats in Week 18 (Pats lose out) and we beat the Jets, you're looking at this ... and I do not know who would get the tie-break between Chargers and Commanders:

 

 

 

And if the Pats beat the Jets in the final week, and we beat the Jets ... here's what you'd have ... again, the tie-break between Chargers and Commanders would determine whether we pick #5 or #6 

 

 

Bottom line, I think we're locked into the Top 6 even if we beat the Jets. But we could go as high as #2 depending on what the Pats do, if we lose out. And our rooting interests in Week 18 will entirely depend on whether we lose to the Jets and are in play for #2, or if we beat the Jets and want them to get to 6 wins with a victory over the Pats. 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[JamesMadisonSkins]

16 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

 

 

This is your absolute dream scenario, by the way. If the Cards beat the Bears and the Pats beat the Broncos and Jets ... if we lose out we are picking #2 no matter what else happens....

 

And this is the absolute dream scenario, because you're probably trading the #2 pick down to the Patriots so that they can come up and take either Daniels or Maye. And there's a really good chance when you pick again at #4, you still have Daniels or Maye on the board and can trade down again. How much draft capital would you want to accumulate? Entirely up to the new front office. But the way draft-pick trades have gone lately, there's a really good chance we'd trade the #2 pick before draft day, meaning teams would have plenty of time to re-adjust expectations and position themselves for a trade-up to #4. Two draft-day trades would be hard to pull off. 

 

You'd likely be able to get the Patriots 2nd rounder and 2025 1st to move from #2 to #4. Do you trade again with the Giants so they can get a QB? Do you risk trading down to #9 with the Titans? What about #11 with the Raiders (just cut off the picture here). Going from #4 to #11 would take you out of the Fashanu/Alt range, but could still get you Bowers, one of the other Top WRs, or get you Latham or the OT from Oregon State. If you go from #4 to #11 you're looking at the Raiders 2nd and a 2025 1st.

 

So in theory, you could easily add a pair of 2's this year PLUS a pair of #1s next year. That would be an absolute COUP and we should really be hoping for that scenario.

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[JamesMadisonSkins]

This would be an absolute COUP regardless of how you proceed, assuming you trade #2 for #4 ...

 

 

Here's an example of trading from #2 to #4 and then to #10 with the Raiders. Do not discount those two small print #1s on the bottom right ...

 

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

This would be an absolute COUP regardless of how you proceed, assuming you trade #2 for #4 ...

 

 

Here's an example of trading from #2 to #4 and then to #10 with the Raiders. Do not discount those two small print #1s on the bottom right ...

 

We have a mock draft thread for these.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

This is your absolute dream scenario, by the way. If the Cards beat the Bears and the Pats beat the Broncos and Jets ... if we lose out we are picking #2 no matter what else happens....

 

And this is the absolute dream scenario, because you're probably trading the #2 pick down to the Patriots so that they can come up and take either Daniels or Maye. And there's a really good chance when you pick again at #4, you still have Daniels or Maye on the board and can trade down again. How much draft capital would you want to accumulate? Entirely up to the new front office. But the way draft-pick trades have gone lately, there's a really good chance we'd trade the #2 pick before draft day, meaning teams would have plenty of time to re-adjust expectations and position themselves for a trade-up to #4. Two draft-day trades would be hard to pull off. 

 

You'd likely be able to get the Patriots 2nd rounder and 2025 1st to move from #2 to #4. Do you trade again with the Giants so they can get a QB? Do you risk trading down to #9 with the Titans? What about #11 with the Raiders (just cut off the picture here). Going from #4 to #11 would take you out of the Fashanu/Alt range, but could still get you Bowers, one of the other Top WRs, or get you Latham or the OT from Oregon State. If you go from #4 to #11 you're looking at the Raiders 2nd and a 2025 1st.

 

So in theory, you could easily add a pair of 2's this year PLUS a pair of #1s next year. That would be an absolute COUP and we should really be hoping for that scenario.

 

Great work on laying out scenarios. 

 

I think its crazy though each time you bring up helping the Giants get their QB.   They aren't some random team in the NFC.  We play them twice a year and their fortunes effect us much more than name that random team.    The Giants have been mostly irrelevant since prime Eli.  I am not interested in helping them change their fortunes.  In spite of their down season, their FO IMO is pretty loaded.  And their roster is underrated. They got to fix their O line.   But I think no chance this or any FO is helping a division rival get their QB especially in cases where its in the top 10.

 

I've been consistent on the QB spot even when selling Howell weeks back.  That is, you run it back with Howell.  But on some odd off chance you are picking top 2, you likely take the QB.  So for those who remember any of my posts on that thread.  I have been super consistent.  I haven't changed my position one whit.  I thought it was beyond fantasy that we'd be picking that high back then.  Now it looks like at a minimum there is a real chance.  

 

I think at least 50-50 they take a QB if picking top 2.  Maye's upside is likely higher than Howell.  His billing is much bigger than Howell.   A new GM, a new coach with one of the most ballyhooed QB prospects in the draft in the last 10 years where you can have him on the cheap for 5 years -- hard pass?  Maybe.  But I think good chance they take the QB in that case.

 

To your point though even if they like a QB and like Daniels equally could they trade down just a little?  Maybe.

 

I am somewhat agnostic still as for what they should do.  Aside from two things.  No way I am helping the Giants solve their QB woes and no it doesn't change my mind if name that random poster here tries to reassure me that said hype prospect really sucks or whatever.  And the other is if they don't go QB and don't trade down, no way i am not taking Harrison if he's there at the pick.

[redskinss]

Hard to believe the draft is only 4 months away.

Damn the season flies by.

[Redwards]

59 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to Logan Paulsen scout the Rams, this game worries me some.

 

He thinks their secondary as to stopping big plays is almost as bad as this team.  Receivers wide open against their defense on the 2nd-3rd level.  3rd worst against the deep pass in the NFL.  We of course are the worst.

 

No pass rush aside from Darnold.  

Meh.

 

EB's scheme is effective at only one thing: taking our own receivers out of the game.   The spacing is a freaking joke and his play calling is just as bad.  I'm not worried about this game at all, especially with the Rams still having a legit playoff shot.  They are at home with something very real to play for.  Plus, they have a much better coaching staff.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Redwards said:

Meh.

 

EB's scheme is effective at only one thing: taking our own receivers out of the game.   The spacing is a freaking joke and his play calling is just as bad.  I'm not worried about this game at all, especially with the Rams still having a legit playoff shot.  They are at home with something very real to play for.  Plus, they have a much better coaching staff.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

We have a mock draft thread for these.

 

I know, I'm not trying to clog up this thread with mock drafts, but I was just laying out the scenarios based on the conversation around whether we pick #2 versus #4 versus #6 and how vastly different the trade value is at #2. In the future I can just lay out the picks, not the players/mock draft results.

 

@Skinsinparadise I am totally with you on this. I know I put the Giants as a trade-back partner from #4, but my hunch is we would simply draft a player at #4, or trade down with the Titans or the Raiders. The down-side there is that you take yourself out of the Alt/Fashanu/Harrison sweepstakes. I think it's worth highlighting that thought. Would this FO view another 2nd and 2025 1st being worth the potential difference of Alt/Fashanu or Latham/Fuaga/Nabers? If we had #2, I think the dream scenario in and of itself is the ability to choose between re-setting with Maye or trading back from #2 to #4 and still getting a top OT while adding premier picks. I would not want to hand the Giants Daniels or Maye ... or even Harrison for that matter. 

 

The way things stand today going into Week 15, we are in position to potentially draft either Fashanu or Harrison. The alternative is, if the cards fall in place for us and we are lucky enough to move to #2, you can still get that player by trading down to #4, but we'd be in a position to add a 2nd and a future 1st to do so, for doing nothing other than lucking into results that move us up from #4 to #2. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Redwards]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I hear you!

 

It would be SOOOOOO Redskins of us to somehow win this game on a last second 62 yard field goal.  

 

The Jets game is the one that I'm still very worried about.  But...there is zilch we can do as fans.  Just watch with fingers crossed, right?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Redwards said:

I hear you!

 

It would be SOOOOOO Redskins of us to somehow win this game on a last second 62 yard field goal.  

 

The Jets game is the one that I'm still very worried about.  But...there is zilch we can do as fans.  Just watch with fingers crossed, right?

 

True irony would be beating the Rams or Cowboys in a meaningless Week 18 game, while also losing to the Jets in Week 16. IF we are to win another game, it would actually be preferable to be the Cowboys or Rams ... if the Jets beat us then we are okay ... they'll get to 6 wins while we sit at 5, versus both having 5 wins and Jets winning the tie-break haha.

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[El Mexican]

16 hours ago, mac8887 said:

But with all the cap space and all the day 2 picks you don't think we could field a serviceable oline, while still getting a possible blue chipper at qb. What if we pull a Dwayne haskins get our qb and if there is a tackle we really like then trade back into the first and get him. Use the cap space on some serviceable ends, and maybe a guard. We could probably get back into the 1st without even using a future first

 

Well, the reality is that these "serviceable" linemen are not enough in today's NFL. We need the best of the best protecting the QB.

 

We have been incredibly lucky with Howell's health. But that luck can evaporate in a nanosecond if he keeps getting hit at this pace.  

[El Mexican]

15 hours ago, Conn said:

I’m aware. We have plenty of resources to rebuild the OL, a top-5 pick isn’t a cure-all for that position group. I want the best, most impactful player at that rare premium pick. And I also want various OL improvements. We can do both. If we trade down a bit, sure, take the OT. 
 

It will also be fun to have an OC who won’t exacerbate the negative impact of our worst position group out of pure stubbornness and lack of adaptability. It’s been hard to watch given we all knew this OL was ass in August. 

 

It's been a disaster, I agree.

 

But great linemen are a rarity, just as stud QBs. Start with the best tackle you can draft and go from there.  

[Koolblue13]

Intelligence and communication are just as important for IOL than measurables. Larson is not physically superior to Gates, but the OL improved overnight when he came in.

[Voice_of_Reason]

15 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

It's talked about a lot in the draft thread.  cliffs notes:  Fauga, Latham, Mims, Latham.  Maybe Morgan.  It's oddly deep -- in a good way.  Feels like how the TE crop was last year -- deep. 

Ok, I'll peruse the draft thread. But that didn't answer my question.  Take #4 vs. #1.  What's the difference?  Are they the same tier of player?  If not, then while it might be deep, it still has an elite player or players at the top.  You want to get the elite players not the deep good players.  

33 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Intelligence and communication are just as important for IOL than measurables. Larson is not physically superior to Gates, but the OL improved overnight when he came in.

It did for like a week or two. Now it's back to not knowing how to pick up blitzes and being a complete sieve.  

 

They have bad players across the OL.  Only one of them would probably start for other teams, and that's Cosmi.  Maybe Wylie at guard.  That's it.  Leno on just about every other team is a good swing backup tackle.  Paul and Charles probably don't make most teams.  Larson looks good at center because all of the players he has replaced over the last 2-3 years except Rouiller (when Rouiller got hurt) shouldn't be in the NFL playing center.

 

Btw Larson is hurt.  He was limited at practice yesterday.  So we might be seeing Gates again.  But Charles practiced.  So we might be seeing the entire starting OL from the beginning of the season: Leno, Charles, Gates, Cosmi, Wylie.  

[Redskins 2021]

It look like the top 3 are set the two Qb and Harrison assuming they all come out. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think at least 50-50 they take a QB if picking top 2.  Maye's upside is likely higher than Howell.  His billing is much bigger than Howell.   A new GM, a new coach with one of the most ballyhooed QB prospects in the draft in the last 10 years where you can have him on the cheap for 5 years -- hard pass?  Maybe.  But I think good chance they take the QB in that case.

You did hit something here which is important: taking a QB in the first re-sets the QB clock.

 

Howell's clock is already going to be year 3 of a 4 year contract, and if he is the guy, you have to extend him after 2024.  

 

Taking a QB in the first means you've re-set that back to zero, and there is absolutely merit to doing that for only that reason IF you believe the QB has a better upside than the one you have.  

 

I'm like you: I have absolutely no firm idea what they should do.  I want them to get the highest pick possible so they have the most number of options possible.  So, for that, I want them to lose and lose hard.  I would also like Howell to play well in those losses, because one way or another, he can be an asset to help re-build the team.

 

From that point on, it's going to be a REALLY tough decision on what to do.  

 

If they are picking top 2, they are either taking a QB or trading back 2-3 spots to pick up multiple future first round picks and picking an elite player still at the top of the draft.  I'd be completely fine with either scneario.  I MIGHT favor scenario B only because having future first round picks is such a luxury.  However, if you can reset the QB clock and get an elite prospect, there is a whole lot of merit in that as well.

 

It's almost a no-lose until you made the wrong choice scenario.  Either option would be totally fine, until Howell develops into a 10-12 year top 8-12 starter (ala Kirk) and Maye bombs because there is absolutely that possibility.  Then you look like an idiot.  The opposite could be true, Maye could turn out to be Herbert and Howell drifts around the league like Fitzpatrick for 10 years, and then you look like a genius.

[JSSkinz]

We need starting quality talent at DE, OT, LB, CB, and TE so the more picks the better off we'll be.

 

I'm curious what value moving out of the 2nd or 3rd pick could bring along with moving J Allen.

 

That's gotta be worth 5-6 picks in the first two rounds with 1-2 deferred to 2025,  am I way off on this?

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

You did hit something here which is important: taking a QB in the first re-sets the QB clock.

 

Howell's clock is already going to be year 3 of a 4 year contract, and if he is the guy, you have to extend him after 2024.  

 

Taking a QB in the first means you've re-set that back to zero, and there is absolutely merit to doing that for only that reason IF you believe the QB has a better upside than the one you have.  

 

I'm like you: I have absolutely no firm idea what they should do.  I want them to get the highest pick possible so they have the most number of options possible.  So, for that, I want them to lose and lose hard.  I would also like Howell to play well in those losses, because one way or another, he can be an asset to help re-build the team.

 

From that point on, it's going to be a REALLY tough decision on what to do.  

 

If they are picking top 2, they are either taking a QB or trading back 2-3 spots to pick up multiple future first round picks and picking an elite player still at the top of the draft.  I'd be completely fine with either scneario.  I MIGHT favor scenario B only because having future first round picks is such a luxury.  However, if you can reset the QB clock and get an elite prospect, there is a whole lot of merit in that as well.

 

It's almost a no-lose until you made the wrong choice scenario.  Either option would be totally fine, until Howell develops into a 10-12 year top 8-12 starter (ala Kirk) and Maye bombs because there is absolutely that possibility.  Then you look like an idiot.  The opposite could be true, Maye could turn out to be Herbert and Howell drifts around the league like Fitzpatrick for 10 years, and then you look like a genius.

 

It's a great summary of how I think too and the point I am trying to make here.

 

My only debate with some here is that there are some who state the course is obvious and clear.  And those who think the course is obvious and clear all seem to be in the mode of run it back with Howell and blow off the QBs in this draft. 

 

If they have a high pick, they are in great shape theoritically at least.

 

A.  you might be able to get a player who many (me included) think is the best player in the draft in Marvin Harrison.

 

B.  Arguably there are three Qbs with big time potential that our GM might fall for and one or two of them might be in range of their pick

 

C.  You got two IMO very good left tackles and likely will have your choice of them

 

D. Especially if the GM is sold on Howell, it might be prime real estate to trade down and add even more players.

 

All of these ideas excite me for different reasons.  I am good with any of them.  No hard take on one versus the other aside from if they are running this back with Howell take Harrison at their pick if he's there.

 

But yeah back to the QB question.  As I mentioned here the other day I read that Dak might get 60 million in his new contract.  That's going to reset these veteran contracts.  We got Howell for another 2 years cheap.  Lets' say he ends up good not great -- we are then in that Kirk, Carr debate about paying a good QB perhaps 40 million a year.  A rookie QB we got for 5 years cheap.  

Edited December 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

We need starting quality talent at DE, OT, LB, CB, and TE so the more picks the better off we'll be.

 

I'm curious what value moving out of the 2nd or 3rd pick could bring along with moving J Allen.

 

That's gotta be worth 5-6 picks in the first two rounds with 1-2 deferred to 2025,  am I way off on this?

 

Allen getting close to 30, with a big contract and coming off an off year I'd guess brings a 2nd at best.

 

As far as trading down depends if there is a bidding war for a QB.  If Maye is as good as his hype, they'd likely get a big haul.  And if Maye plays to his hype in the pros and Howell plateaus, our new GM will get roasted especially from this fan base..  So that would be an interesting start to his tenure.   

 

I'd already be out on the dude if he gets it wrong.  If you are passing over a ballyhooed QB as much as Maye has been -- you better nail that decision.  If he's wrong, I'd fire him without hesitation.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

10 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

We need starting quality talent at DE, OT, LB, CB, and TE so the more picks the better off we'll be.

 

I'm curious what value moving out of the 2nd or 3rd pick could bring along with moving J Allen.

 

That's gotta be worth 5-6 picks in the first two rounds with 1-2 deferred to 2025,  am I way off on this?

 

Depends on how far back we go. From #2 it would be more. Pick between Maye and Daniels. From #3, the team would need to like Daniels, presuming Maye goes #2. 

 

Regardless, I think moving back from a Top 3 pick 3-5 spots should get you a 2 and a future 1. Not sure what we would get for Allen, maybe a 2nd?

 

So to move Allen and the #2 pick you're talking about a pair of 2's and a future 1

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Ok, I'll peruse the draft thread. But that didn't answer my question.  Take #4 vs. #1.  What's the difference?  Are they the same tier of player?  If not, then while it might be deep, it

 

Of course its all subjective.  I've not watched all of them yet.

 

The main difference in skipping the top 2 choices is you are moving from LT to RT.  Alt and Fashanu are natural LTs.  Mims, Lathan, Fauga are RTs -- all high ceiling RTs.  Some would rank Guyton, Morgan in that group, too.   Fautanu is more likely a guard but he could play tackle, too.

 

So cliff notes is it LT or bust?  if so its those 2 early on.  If you are open to a RT, plenty of fish in the sea. 

 

2nd roundish:  LT, Patrick Paul, Saumataia

 

In short a lot of depth, a lot of good RTs and guards-centers in this draft.  So if you trade down and focus purely on the O line.  you can get a RT, guard -- and maybe a LT with potential.   If you want a high floor LT, IMO take Fashanu or Alt early.  

Edited December 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

To go from #9 to #1 the Bears got:
#1, #61, future 1st, future 2nd, DJ Moore. If we value DJ Moore as a 1st round pick, then the haul was a 3 1sts and 2 2nds

 

To go from #12 to #3 in 2021, the 49ers traded the Dolphins:

1st, 4th, 2 future 1sts .. so 3 1sts and a 4th

 

Commanders in 2012, to get from #6 to #2 for RGIII

1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st ... so 3 1sts and 1 2nd

 

Whether we are picking #2 or #3, I think that gives you a good sense on the type of return capital we can expect. The further down we go, the more we get, obviously. And if we are at #2 there is no doubt we'll have an offer like these on the table. 

 

When we went from #2 to #6 in 2012, we gave us our 1st and 2nd and then 1sts in the next two drafts. That's why I think if we end up at #2, and want to swap back with the Pats if they're at #4 or #5, we'd probably do it for a 1st and 2nd and a future 1st. Because the person who is there at #4 or #5 would be someone we'd likely consider at #2 if we didn't want a QB, with the exception of Harrison (assuming he goes 3rd to ARZ)

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

To go from #9 to #1 the Bears got:
#1, #61, future 1st, future 2nd, DJ Moore. If we value DJ Moore as a 1st round pick, then the haul was a 3 1sts and 2 2nds

 

To go from #12 to #3 in 2021, the 49ers traded the Dolphins:

1st, 4th, 2 future 1sts .. so 3 1sts and a 4th

 

Commanders in 2012, to get from #6 to #2 for RGIII

1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st ... so 3 1sts and 1 2nd

 

Whether we are picking #2 or #3, I think that gives you a good sense on the type of return capital we can expect. The further down we go, the more we get, obviously. And if we are at #2 there is no doubt we'll have an offer like these on the table. 

 

When we went from #2 to #6 in 2012, we gave us our 1st and 2nd and then 1sts in the next two drafts. That's why I think if we end up at #2, and want to swap back with the Pats if they're at #4 or #5, we'd probably do it for a 1st and 2nd and a future 1st. Because the person who is there at #4 or #5 would be someone we'd likely consider at #2 if we didn't want a QB, with the exception of Harrison (assuming he goes 3rd to ARZ)

 

If its a trade down, we'd want the NFL hype in reality to match the mock drafters hype about Maye if they picked 2.  Judging by what some have said including Bruce Feldman which I mentioned, the hype about Maye is real with the NFL will see.  Thereby, I'd think they'd get a big haul.

 

I don't envy the GM though in this situation in one sense.  That is, considering how rare its been for this team to be in position to take ANY ballyhooed QB early in the draft let alone do it without trading up -- if the GM sees the rare opportunity and blows it off and trades down and bypasses the QB.  Howell better be distinctly better than the QB he passed over.  Otherwise its a fatal call that should cost him his job.

 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If its a trade down, we'd want the NFL hype in reality to match the mock drafters hype about Maye if they picked 2.  Judging by what some have said including Bruce Feldman which I mentioned, the hype about Maye is real with the NFL will see.  Thereby, I'd think they'd get a big haul.

 

I don't envy the GM though in this situation in one sense.  That is, considering how rare its been for this team to be in position to take ANY ballyhooed QB early in the draft let alone do it without trading up -- if the GM sees the rare opportunity and blows it off and trades down and bypasses the QB.  Howell better be distinctly better than the QB he passed over.  Otherwise its a fatal call that should cost him his job.

 

 

 

The reality is probably less about Maye at #2 and what happens if we sit at #3 or #4. I would assume the Bears go Caleb and the Pats go Maye. Then the Cardinals probably go Harrison, Jr. at #3. 

 

That would leave us at #4 with Jayden Daniels on the board. If his hype is also real, then we are in the Lance position that the Dolphins were in 2021. And to get that type of draft haul from #4 we'd certainly need to move back to #10-12 range. I think you could still get a 1st, 2nd and 1st in that trade back, but it might be a bit more of a stretch. Maybe the 1st and 3rd and a future 1st? Would we take that to move off the Top OTs and Daniels? At least that's a bit of an easier decision for a new GM than passing on Maye at #2. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins