2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

[Rex Tomb]

1 hour ago, Rocky21 said:

How in the **** do we have the 4th worst RB room in the entire league?!

I agree wholeheartedly with a tweet in there: shame on JP for shilling Warren Sharp’s crap. Clearly very little research actually went into this ranking.  And Finlay speaks about it as though it’s Gospel.  I’m starting to dislike Finlay more and more.

[FootballZombie]

We are in the bottom 10 in terms of positional spending at RB this year.

I'm perfectly happy w/ the ratio of the cost/investment in our RBs and the return we get out of them.

 

We don't spend any kind of money and I believe Gibby is the highwater mark in terms of draft investment. We have assembled a stable of guys with a very diverse skillset. Between them all we can do everything that is needed at the position, with a good amount of overlap between them too.

 

Nobody is a worldbeater or anything, but you shouldn't expect that at our price point. We got depth, proven durability, youth and upside. I completely understand why any objective observer would rate them lowly, but I like the RB room a lot.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

We are in the bottom 10 in terms of positional spending at RB this year.

I'm perfectly happy w/ the ratio of the cost/investment in our RBs and the return we get out of them.

 

We don't spend any kind of money and I believe Gibby is the highwater mark in terms of draft investment. We have assembled a stable of guys with a very diverse skillset. Between them all we can do everything that is needed at the position, with a good amount of overlap between them too.

 

Nobody is a worldbeater or anything, but you shouldn't expect that at our price point. We got depth, proven durability, youth and upside. I completely understand why any objective observer would rate them lowly, but I like the RB room a lot.

 

I think with the RBs its simple.  Their starters averaged less than 4 YPC.  That sucks.   And the anayltics metrics diving deeper had this as one of the least effective running games in the league.

 

Now the analytics ranks our run blocking very poorly.  And IMO that's a major part of this.  They still thinks the O line stinks.  So their minds aren't changing on this.  I agree with them that the run blocking likely still stinks. But it might stink a little less.  And Robinson should be a bit more spry post gun shot.  I don't think the run blocking will be hot though.  The 2 additions -- Gates-Wylie are far from hot run blockers at least judging by their PFF scores.  The only good run blocker on this team is arguably Cosmi and who knows if he stays healthy.

 

1 hour ago, Rocky21 said:

How in the **** do we have the 4th worst RB room in the entire league?!

 

I like both Gibson and Robinson but a 3.7 YPC for Gibson and 3.9 Robinson doesn''t help their argument albiet I blame that on the O line.  

Edited July 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

19 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

We also had Wentz and TH playing QB, an OC who was a slave to his system and a bad OL.

 

This is where analytics have a really difficult time distinguishing cause and effect.  

 

The issue is Howell doesn't have a sample size to use analytics in comparison.

 

As far as their O line metrics, they expect it to still suck based on this new lineup versus factoring some big change coming.  I think they are right on that.  I think it will suck, too.

 

but I am reltaively high on Howell.  I do think he will be an improvement on Redacted and Wentz. 

 

The anayltics types were VERY down on  Redacted and Wentz last off season.  they aren't really up or down on Howell, they got a TBD vibe about him, which i get. 

 

Look is there a team more comically bad at evaluating QBs over the last few decades or so.  Have we heard well this time, its different, this time we got it right, plenty of times?  Sure.  I get the idea of not just giving this team the benefit of the doubt and instead want to see the movie play out before giving a 4 star review in advance of the screening.

 

 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Rewatched a bit of the Atlanta game and now watching the first Giants game.  With Robinson in the game defenses really clamp down the middle.  Robinson had some good chances on some plays to dart to the edges which looked fairly open but mostly didn't try on the plays I watched and instead ran into traffic, when he did it though he mostly faired well. 

 

I wonder with increased speed that changes for him (post gun shot).  But it makes me wonder about them supposedly really liking J. Gibbs and D. Achane (according to Keim) in this last draft.  Speedy backs who can hit that edge fast and take it to the house.  Gibson can do it to some extent but he's not as electric as those runners. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

People don’t like to hear it, but every fanbase in the league has a RB or backup RB who they think can be at least a Robinson/Gibson level talent with a little bit of improved runblocking. Our guys are replacement level talents until proven otherwise, and last season they produced below replacement level. And we didn’t improve the OL much that analytics can pinpoint. Liking the RB room more than others outside the fanbase is extremely common across the league, someone has to rank low and our efficiency and production blew. It’s really not something to get mad about and it was extremely well-researched, as far as these things go. The problem is you can’t account for “trust me, these guys are more talented than you think and run like their hair is on fire, they’re better than you think” with analytics lol. They need to do it to some degree to see it reflected in the numbers. They haven’t yet. We had a horrific run game last year. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Conn said:

People don’t like to hear it, but every fanbase in the league has a RB or backup RB who they think can be at least a Robinson/Gibson level talent with a little bit of improved runblocking. Our guys are replacement level talents until proven otherwise, and last season they produced below replacement level. And we didn’t improve the OL much that analytics can pinpoint. Liking the RB room more than others outside the fanbase is extremely common across the league, someone has to rank low and our efficiency and production blew. It’s really not something to get mad about and it was extremely well-researched, as far as these things go. The problem is you can’t account for “trust me, these guys are more talented than you think and run like their hair is on fire, they’re better than you think” with analytics lol. They need to do it to some degree to see it reflected in the numbers. They haven’t yet. We had a horrific run game last year. 

 

Agree.

 

I've mentioned previously I read the NY sports pages just about everyday.

 

I'll give a Giants example similar to what some whine about here.  Paris Campbell for example.   He had 623 yards last season.  That's OK but nothing crazy.    But Paris is hyped this off season in NY.  Fans seem jazzed.  He's still just 25.  He was more hyped than Terry was in that Ohio State offense.   Heck I recall some on the draft thread at tihe time hype Campbell and  I recall two different people say at that time Terry sucks.   Campbell put up those numbers in Indy with bad QB play.  And he's hyping about how Daboll plans to use him better.  And Daniel Jones > Ehilinger-Ryan at that stage of their careers.

 

So the Giants sign Campbell.  They draft Hyatt who some say was a steal, with some grading him as a first rounder.  They add Waller who is a stud when healthy.  Yet Sharp grades the unit 27th.    Shepard is back healthy.  Slayton had better numbers than any of our WRs sans Terry.  Wandale Robinson their rookie last year was coming on before he got hurt.   A lot of narratives involving potential in that group.

 

So the idea is he's not going to ride a narrative of hey Daboll will make these guys better or lets project Wandale Robinson if he didn't get hurt, etc -- even though Sharp seems to believe Daboll is a good coach, reading through his takes on that team.   He needs to see it play out versus riding on a what if.  And personally I think the Giants did a nice job upgrading that unit.  but I see Sharp's point, you can't grade up based on potential.  It needs to play out. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[philibusters]

The national guys cannot give any players the benefit of the doubt.  They have to skeptical of OTA and minicamp and training camp buzz.  They basically have to give everybody the benefit of the doubt or nobody the benefit of the doubt because it would be unfair to give some players and teams the benefit of the doubt and not give other players or teams the benefit of the doubt.

 

The past 3 years we have been 24th, 23rd, and 25th in scoring offense for example.  We are going to have to prove it before the national analysts recognize it and I am fine with that as long as they apply that standard to all 32 teams.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

People don’t like to hear it, but every fanbase in the league has a RB or backup RB who they think can be at least a Robinson/Gibson level talent with a little bit of improved runblocking. Our guys are replacement level talents until proven otherwise, and last season they produced below replacement level. And we didn’t improve the OL much that analytics can pinpoint. Liking the RB room more than others outside the fanbase is extremely common across the league, someone has to rank low and our efficiency and production blew. It’s really not something to get mad about and it was extremely well-researched, as far as these things go. The problem is you can’t account for “trust me, these guys are more talented than you think and run like their hair is on fire, they’re better than you think” with analytics lol. They need to do it to some degree to see it reflected in the numbers. They haven’t yet. We had a horrific run game last year. 

 

Gibson has produced though.  His AV totals for his three seasons are 6, 8, and 6.  For bad offenses that didn't produce much AV because of how poorly they ranked vs the league, those are good seasons, especially for a guy playing in a rotation.  The shorthand I've used is 6 AV  roughly = average to above average starter or high quality rotation player, and 8 AV = legitimately good starter.  Replacement level would be 3 maybe 4 AV or less in a healthy season.  I think it's fair to consider Gibby a high quality rotation player with good starter upside based on his production.

 

Robinson was replacement level last year, but there are mitigating factors.  His severe injury that took him months to get back from, the fact that he was a rookie, the terrible offense he played in where the run blocking and play calling were both really bad.  He doesn't have the explosive play making upside that Gibby has, but there are reasons for real optimism that he will be much better this season: a big season of experience under his belt, coming in healthy, a QB that can dictate a hat in the run game, a much more athletic IOL, better play calling and an OC who has an area of expertise in coaching running backs.

 

I can see Robinson and Gibby both having 7 or 8 AV seasons each, and 14-15 AV from your RB room would probably be upper third for the NFL.

[Skinsinparadise]

Both the Eagles and Cowboys had a corner in the top 10 and one in the honorable mention category.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/37773471/ranking-nfl-top-10-cornerbacks-2023-execs-coaches-scouts-make-their-picks-best-corners

 

Execs, coaches, scouts rank NFL's top 10 cornerbacks for 2023

[Voice_of_Reason]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Both the Eagles and Cowboys had a corner in the top 10 and one in the honorable mention category.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/37773471/ranking-nfl-top-10-cornerbacks-2023-execs-coaches-scouts-make-their-picks-best-corners

 

Execs, coaches, scouts rank NFL's top 10 cornerbacks for 2023

That’s probably fair.  
 

I like our group in the secondary.  So does Keim.  We’ll see how it plays out but it could be the sum is greater than the parts.

 

 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Voice_of_Reason

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

That’s probably fair.  
 

I like our group in the secondary.  So does Keim.  We’ll see how it plays out but it could be the sum is greater than the parts.

 

 

 

Agree.  My point wasn't Fuller and St. Juste belong in that group.  It's that both division rivals have some good bookend corners. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Walterfootball.  I don't take them too seriously.  They did have a phase where they continued to suck up to this franchise during the Bruce Allen era -- it came off like they dared to be different just to be different. 

 

The dysfunctional line seems outdated.  Can't wait until the league adjusts to the idea that the dysfunction is likely gone.

 

 

2023 Washington Redskins Analysis: The Redskins won't be projected to win many games because of their quarterback situation, but there are other reasons to be pessimistic about their outlook. Their offensive line is worse than it was last year, and the same thing can be said of their linebacking corps. The Redskins also have a tougher schedule this year. Besides, they are a dysfuctional organization, so it was going to be difficult for them to reach the playoffs anyway.

Projection: 5-12 (4th in NFC East)

Edited July 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[RVAskins]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Walterfootball.  I don't take them too seriously. 

I agree. I find it odd that they don't even touch on the fact the we got rid of the arguably one of the worst OC in the league and replaced him with someone who hopefully gets more out of the weapons we have. They talk about a dysfunctional organization with no mention that we are about to get a new owner who has a proven record as someone who puts the team first.

They really offer no insight. The last line tells me they had their minds made up about the team before they even gave it any thought.

[philibusters]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Walterfootball.  I don't take them too seriously.  They did have a phase where they continued to suck up to this franchise during the Bruce Allen era -- it came off like they dared to be different just to be different. 

 

The dysfunctional line seems outdated.  Can't wait until the league adjusts to the idea that the dysfunction is likely gone.

 

 

2023 Washington Redskins Analysis: The Redskins won't be projected to win many games because of their quarterback situation, but there are other reasons to be pessimistic about their outlook. Their offensive line is worse than it was last year, and the same thing can be said of their linebacking corps. The Redskins also have a tougher schedule this year. Besides, they are a dysfuctional organization, so it was going to be difficult for them to reach the playoffs anyway.

Projection: 5-12 (4th in NFC East)

 

The dysfunctional line seems out of place.   Seems like something you would see in an informal hot take of FS1 or ESPN, whereas a team preview seems more formal and a comment like that is just something you wouldn't put in without elaborating.  

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, RVAskins said:

I agree. I find it odd that they don't even touch on the fact the we got rid of the arguably one of the worst OC in the league and replaced him with someone who hopefully gets more out of the weapons we have. They talk about a dysfunctional organization with no mention that we are about to get a new owner who has a proven record as someone who puts the team first.

They really offer no insight. The last line tells me they had their minds made up about the team before they even gave it any thought.

 

They have made strides over the years as to getting some legit draft gossip.  Aside from that, its basically a fan site.

 

They for years were oddly optimisitc about this team and more specifically Bruce Allen. That was tough for me to forget considering Bruce had almost no fans aside from them and some stragglers on this board. 

 

I do think this team is "meh".  Nothing to be excited about it at least in terms of 2023.  But I am excited about this team in the context of 2024 because we IMO have some tools to set it up for the kill in 2024.

 

But the national take that this team is somewhere from bad to sucking, I don't share.  Now in the scheme of things it would be better if they are right -- team stinking -- versus people like me expecting mediocre.  Another 8-9 season doesn't do much for their drafting status whereas 5-12 certainly would.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[tmandoug1]

How many first round picks on the offensive side of the ball last year? How many on the offensive side of the ball this year? Should see major improvement to those numbers....26th maybe? 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I would hope a head coach's decision to go for it on 4th down factored in the skills (or lack thereof) of the players on the field. Lions and Eagles went for it a lot and had a great EPA from doing so? Well they also have pretty good offensive lines.

 

It looks like the left column is a volume of total EPA added bar rather than a rate of EPA added per decision to GoForIt bar. As such, maybe that's one reason we were 8-8-1 compared to Kliff Kingsbury's 4-13. He went for it 41 times and only converted 18 (43.9%). Ron went for it 25 times but converted 12.

 

Weirdly, Sean McVay only went for it 19 times but converted an absurd 78.9% of those tries. I guess those might have been lower leverage situations? Same with Andy Reid who only went for it 12 times, but converted 9 of them (75%). On the flipside, Zac Taylor was 3 for 12 on conversions, but his added EPA probably suggests he only did it in higher leverage situations.

 

Lovie Smith is all the way at -10 EPA, yet he converted 50% of them. That's wild. Maybe some he failed were deep in his territory, and he never did it to get into FG range? Hmm, maybe what I'm trying to visualize with my "leverage" term might not be field position, but something more like going for a deeper pass. Not just a 2 yard catch on 4th and 1 from the 50 yard line. Maybe a 20 yard catch on 4th and 1 from the 50 yard line, which if it's a quick 3 and out afterwards still puts you in FG range.

15 minutes ago, tmandoug1 said:

How many first round picks on the offensive side of the ball last year? How many on the offensive side of the ball this year? Should see major improvement to those numbers....26th maybe? 

 

Carson Wentz was a 1st round pick. Howell is a 5th. So that's a fall off by 1 at least.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I also think I agree with most here about our RB room and the outsiders views of it. It makes sense and can't blame them.

 

Personally I worry Gibson has lost some of that insane burst and athleticism he had as a rookie. Still athletic but not as much as before.

 

I do think Robinson can still get better, whereas Gibson probably won't. Our new RB pick should help. Immediately upgrades the try hard but not quite good enough duo of Patterson and Williams as depth.

 

I get why some rank Howell towards the bottom at QB. But dead last? Who even is the Cardinals QB? Kyler Murray won't be back from his ACL until most of the season is done. Maybe it'll be 37 year old Colt McCoy?

 

Does Matthew Stafford have a functioning elbow? Rumor has it they tried to dump him to anyone possible to save cap space. His elbow might be cooked.

 

What about Trey Lance? He looked awful. Purdy can't play yet.

 

We're all assuming Sean Payton can turn Russell Wilson around. But what if the 35 year old that's also 5'10 and relies on scrambling can't do it anymore? He was a disaster last season.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

I would hope a head coach's decision to go for it on 4th down factored in the skills (or lack thereof) of the players on the field. Lions and Eagles went for it a lot and had a great EPA from doing so? Well they also have pretty good offensive lines.

 

It looks like the left column is a volume of total EPA added bar rather than a rate of EPA added per decision to GoForIt bar. As such, maybe that's one reason we were 8-8-1 compared to Kliff Kingsbury's 4-13. He went for it 41 times and only converted 18 (43.9%). Ron went for it 25 times but converted 12.

 

 

44% to 48% conversion rate for us.  I don't think Greenberg's point was Rivera should have gone or not gone for it more.  I think his point was the idea that he's this major risk taker.  As we talked about here, he didn't go for a field goal in a crucial game against the Giants and that was the difference in the game.  There was another game where he oddly punted in a big spot versus went for it.

 

But agree it could be him being aware of his poor personnel.  He IMO is bringing the rodeo back, a kicker he apparently doesn't trust in big spots, and the garbage O line.  While its good he's perhaps self aware that they aren't good.  I'd prefer it if he actually fixed it.  

 

10 hours ago, tmandoug1 said:

How many first round picks on the offensive side of the ball last year? How many on the offensive side of the ball this year? Should see major improvement to those numbers....26th maybe? 

 

The vibe I get it is they think Bieiniemy cures all. 

 

It reminds me of the day when some here wanted Kirk gone and said that Colt could do the same things that Kirk did because of Jay's magic system.   Kirk was simply a function of Jay's system -- a system that just about any QB could thrive in. 

 

I used to joke when reading those posts that people gave the vibe that any of us fools here as a layman could throw 5000 yards with Jay because of his apparently plug and play system where just about any QB could put up big numbers with it. 

 

The irony is some of those who made the point weren't even Jay fans but they believed he just had the right system for any QB as if that's not even a big deal to do.  I would say if Jay's system is that magical he should be in the Hall of Fame now.

 

I feel the same way if Bieiniemy has this cure all system.   Where we can scheme around an O line or name that challenege.  I am only being parly sarcastic.  I am high on Bieniemy.  but I feel bad about all this pressure exerted on him.   I don't believe ANY coordinator has this magical system that overcomes you name it.  My favorite example of that is look at McVay last year when the talent of that team waned some.  

 

But on the off chance, Bieiniemy has Marvel like Superpowers and turns the pumpkin into a carriage then I'll be beyond impressed -- in that case he'd definitely earn being the next head coach and in short order.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Curl doesn't make the list, not even as an honorable mention.  The top 2 are my man crushes from that draft, M. Fitzpatrick and D. James.

 

Without our divison, in the honorable mentions -- Kearse from Dallas, McKinney with the Giants.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/37773477/ranking-nfl-top-10-safeties-2023-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-back-end-defenders 

 

Execs, coaches, scouts rank NFL's top 10 safeties for 2023

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

37 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Curl doesn't make the list, not even as an honorable mention.  The top 2 are my man crushes from that draft, M. Fitzpatrick and D. James.

 

Without our divison, in the honorable mentions -- Kearse from Dallas, McKinney with the Giants.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/37773477/ranking-nfl-top-10-safeties-2023-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-back-end-defenders 

 

Execs, coaches, scouts rank NFL's top 10 safeties for 2023

 

McKinney? Besides the 5 interceptions in 2021, hasn't he been poor? Don't actually know, just was under the impression he hasn't been as advertised.

[Skinsinparadise]

28 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

McKinney? Besides the 5 interceptions in 2021, hasn't he been poor? Don't actually know, just was under the impression he hasn't been as advertised.

 

I know from reading the NY papers, the Giants brass is high on him. Smart player.  High intangibles.

 

I liked him too before the draft, I mentioned going to an Alabama game and focusing mostly on him when watching the bama defense.  I liked him versus the pass albiet many draft geeks hyped him more as a run-stopper back then.

 

As for his career, as to PFF grades he had two good seasons and one mediocre one which was this season but he did miss half the year.