Election 2024 & Presidential Cage Match: Dark Brandon 46 vs Felonious Farty 45

[The Evil Genius]

22 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Also the only state capital without a McDonalds.

 

I suspect the massive population of..checks notes...7500 people in Montpelier is ok with that. 

[tshile]

I think McDonald’s not having a market in your area worth existing in, is probably a good sign about the people in said market 

 

 

[Captain Wiggles]

Nevermind the fact that most rural counties had a 37% higher rate of firearm deaths than the most urban counties from 2011 to 2020. 

 

 

[The Evil Genius]

4 minutes ago, tshile said:

I think McDonald’s not having a market in your area worth existing in, is probably a good sign about the people in said market 

 

 

 

It also talks about how small business friendly Montpelier projects itself. 

[tshile]

4 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

Nevermind the fact that most rural counties had a 37% higher rate of firearm deaths than the most urban counties from 2011 to 2020. 

 

 

Quote

From 2011 to 2020, the most rural counties had a 46% lower rate of gun homicide deaths than the most urban counties but a 76% higher rate of gun suicide deaths, according to Reeping’s analysis.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/map-gun-death-rates-lower-cities-than-rural-counties-rcna81462

 

in terms of violence against other people, there’s an unfortunate fact that sort of gets in the way of what you’re trying to say. 
 

it helps to read the whole article. 

2 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

It also talks about how small business friendly Montpelier projects itself. 

Well I was thinking they just wouldn’t eat there

 

but I’d they specifically go out of their way to keep McDonald’s out that’s even better

 

[tshile]

To be fair maybe it’s an issue that I don’t generally count gun suicide as a gun violence problem. I count it as a suicide problem. 
 

i think the two issues are not at all related. Although I understand why pro-gun-control people prefer to lump them all together as it makes their numbers bigger or, in this case, allows them to pretend gun violence is a bigger problem is rural communities than cities. 
 

it’s the same reason we now have the term “mass shooting” that includes any shooting with more than 2 people. Even though everyone associated “mass shooting” with indiscriminate targeting of random people on a public place of gathering. It makes their numbers look bigger and, for those that can’t see what’s going on, their arguments more salient. 
 

but no when someone says gun violence and the threat it poses, I don’t spend a second thinking about people that kill themselves. They pose no threat to me. The solutions to those problems are different. Who it affects is different. Their causes are different. 

Edited September 7, 2023 by tshile

[PeterMP]

43 minutes ago, tshile said:

i just think he’s right - inner city violent/gun crime, in my assumption, is a far bigger threat to society that school shootings, in terms of number of people hurt or killed. 
 

I also think he’s right about re-integrating felons. I’m not a fan of restoring gun rights, but restoring rights is clearly a leftist-driven agenda item (although they only seem to care about the right to vote 😂)

 

Which was really the only point I was making.

 

It seems to me that urban violence has become sort of a catch phrase and even a dog whistle for the GOP.  It seems to be heavily tied to the idea of re-instating top down and aggressive policing which has declined the last few years.

 

And for people that supposedly also support small government, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  And so it also seems to me to have xenophobic/racist under tones mixed with the politics of fear.  Those people in those places make things unsafe, and we need to do something about them/those places.  And I can't go to those places because they aren't safe (I have an in-law that won't go to their nearby urban center even the afternoon/evening hours for a meal or to shop because it isn't "safe" while in reality in the area where she'd go the crime rate is actually really low.  Other parts of the urban area, the crime rate isn't, but those aren't places where she or I'd go, especially at the times of day most of the crime occurs.  Violent crime rates in urban areas as an average is very dependent on place/time.)

 

I've got no problem with the federal government helping in terms of supplying resources, funds, knowledge, etc. to urban areas, but that what we should be discussing at the Presidential level what to do to decrease crime in urban areas by a party that also believe in small government and local control doesn't make much sense and seems disingenuous to me.  Let voters in urban areas decide the best way to police where they live and deal with urban crime.

 

(The above is not really directed at you, but the comment and the way at least in the initial post it was suggested where the effort was to emphasize one over the other and your comment caught my attention.)

 

Urban violent crime is a problem.  Clearly, there are more victims of urban violent crime than something like school shootings.

 

But I also don't think it necessarily has the same emotional and societal impact and so really then financial impact.  And when you think about a threat vs. just number of victims, I'm not sure it is really greater.  And certainly not clearly "by the numbers".

 

While violent crime rates spiked some a few years ago and are higher than they were, they're still lower than they were through the most of the 70s, 80s, and early 90s and somehow society survived.

Edited September 7, 2023 by PeterMP

[tshile]

1 minute ago, PeterMP said:

But I also don't think it necessarily has the same emotional and societal impact and so really then financial impact.  And when you think about a threat vs. just number of victims, I'm not sure it is really greater.  And certainly not clearly "by the numbers".

I agree with everything you said. Again - I was just pointing out what he said seems to be correct if not very close to correct. It’s certainly a little more up to interpretation as you outline in this part. 
 

but it’s summarily dismissed because of who said it. 
 

🤷‍♂️ 

 

As much as republicans use urban crime to distract or change conversation, with seemingly no real proposal outside of aggressive policing to do anything about it (I would argue poverty is the main driver and if we really cared we could probably put a huge dent in it rather easily), democrats downplay it and pretend it’s not a big deal; or that anyone who brings it up is just doing the dog whistle thing you mentioned. 
 

Quote

… brushed aside Cuomo’s description of a mass school shooting, saying, “That case that you described is not a real case that presents itself very often, compared to real-life violence between a lot of violent criminals in cities who are breaking a lot of other laws.”

that’s the quote. Yes, by the numbers, it seems to me he’s correct. Just because he’s loony toons in general doesn’t mean he doesn’t occasionally say something that’s correct. 

[EmirOfShmo]

 

Huckabee: 2024 will be last election ‘decided by ballots rather than bullets’ if Trump loses over legal cases

 

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) on Wednesday said 2024 will be the last election “decided by ballots rather than bullets” if former President Trump doesn’t win the presidential race because of his various legal battles.

In the latest episode of his show on TBN, Huckabee argued the legal woes now facing Trump are part of a politically motivated scheme from the Biden administration, an argument touted by many in the former president’s orbit.

“If these tactics end up working to keep Trump from winning or even running in 2024, it is going to be the last American election that will be decided by ballots rather than bullets,” Huckabee warned in his opening monologue.

Huckabee accused President Biden and his team of trying “to make sure that Donald Trump is not his opponent in 2024″ and “to destroy Trump in the courthouse rather than at the ballot box.” He also alleged the Justice Department, the IRS and the FBI are “conspiring to hide the Biden family crimes, while all the time being obsessed with charging Donald Trump with crimes.”

 

https://news.yahoo.com/huckabee-2024-last-election-decided-201910814.html

[tshile]

“Crime and gun violence is more prevalent in cities than school shootings are in the whole country” seems like a pretty obvious statement no one (that pays attention) could disagree with. 
 

i, personally, think both are worth trying to do something about. 
 

although to be honest, speaking to your part about ideological consistency and letting cities govern themselves @PeterMP, I don’t give two ****s about the cities. I don’t live in them. They can do what they want. 
 

so, if I had to choose only one to tackle, it’d be schools. 

[Captain Wiggles]

17 minutes ago, tshile said:

 

i think the two issues are not at all related. Although I understand why pro-gun-control people prefer to lump them all together as it makes their numbers bigger or, in this case, allows them to pretend gun violence is a bigger problem is rural communities than cities. 

 

Yeah cuz who really gives a **** about saving the lives of human beings rught? 😉

[tshile]

7 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

 

Huckabee: 2024 will be last election ‘decided by ballots rather than bullets’ if Trump loses over legal cases

God I wish they’d shut the **** up and do it already. 
 

im eager for the ones that break down in tears of prison food and prison sentences to try something. Tired of the **** talking. Do it already. 

4 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

 

Yeah cuz who really gives a **** about saving the lives of human beings rught? 😉

 

 

i care a lot about it. Although it definitely makes sense that this is all you’d have to say about it. 
 

but no people picking up a gun and killing themselves is different than picking up a gun and killing others. 
 

it’s ok if you don’t get it, some people struggle to get things sometimes 🤷‍♂️ 

Edited September 7, 2023 by tshile

[Captain Wiggles]

8 minutes ago, tshile said:

it’s ok if you don’t get it, some people struggle to get things sometimes 🤷‍♂️ 

 

Thanks. Same to you fella. 🤷‍♂️

[tshile]

You’re the one that came in here claiming it must be because I don’t care about people dying

 

just treating you the way you act 

[Captain Wiggles]

38 minutes ago, tshile said:

 

but no when someone says gun violence and the threat it poses, I don’t spend a second thinking about people that kill themselves. They pose no threat to me. 

 

This you @tshile?

Edited September 7, 2023 by Captain Wiggles

[tshile]

9 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

 

This you @tshile?

Yes. 
 

when someone talks about the threat gun violence poses to the community, I think about people who point guns at other people and pull the trigger. 
 

people who kill themselves are in a totally different conversation. Totally different causes, solutions, impacts, etc. 

 

suicide is complicated, to me, because I believe people should be allowed to commit suicide. But I also recognize suicide can be a result of trauma (from family, strangers, or society), drug use, or abuse.  So it’s very complicated to parse it all out and I don’t have all the answers but I’m always interested in listening to exprets talk about it. 
 

but they do not pose any threat to me. (Outside of being concerned a family member might go down that path)

 

i realize you think you’re being clever and pulled a “gotcha” but all it reveals is that if you’d bother to actually engage in conversation you could get to this information. Maybe you’d change my mind or id learn something. 
 

instead you try to be clever and look stupid 🤷‍♂️ 

Edited September 7, 2023 by tshile

[The Evil Genius]

Guys, you're both lucky to be 4". 

 

Give it a rest. 

[Jumbo]

3 hours ago, Fergasun said:

It may be too early for the polls to be meaningful, but it does demonstrate that, "the economy sucks", "Biden is too old",  and "let's punish/blame the Democrats for COVID" is effective to a large part of the population.

 

"In an overall sense, the characteristics of thinking and behavior in the bulk of humanity can be a lot more uncomfortable than  comforting depending on your standards."

 

(From the ES moderators manual)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Captain Wiggles]

Just now, tshile said:

i realize you think you’re being clever and pulled a “gotcha” but all it reveals is that if you’d bother to actually engage in conversation you could get to this information. Maybe you’d change my mind or id learn something. 

 

I have engaged in plenty of conversations with you. In fact we've had this conversation before about the inclusion of suicides in deaths by guns. 🤷‍♂️

[tshile]

1 minute ago, Captain Wiggles said:

 

I have engaged in plenty of conversations with you. In fact we've had this conversation before about the inclusion of suicides in deaths by guns. 🤷‍♂️

Yet your entrance into this one was to say I just don’t care about the lives of human beings?

 

petermp came in here and challenged what I said. I thought we had a good conversation. It ended with me saying I basically totally agree with him. 
 

compare that with how ours went. Where you start off by making up the idea that I don’t care about people. Then tried to take a sentence totally out of context 

 

like I said - it’s how you act. You posted trolly nonsense and got the response it deserves. 🤷‍♂️ 

[Cooked Crack]

 

[The Evil Genius]

 

 

[tshile]

4 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

In the original tweet, he followed up saying that they did several different polls and this was for one of them. Then he posted the methodology for the specific poll that was posted here. 

Here:

https://x.com/stevekornacki/status/1699758290949800403?s=46&t=055ahI1j2Kazf04gPvC3GA

 

And follow up here which shows that for that specific poll it was an even makeup:

https://x.com/stevekornacki/status/1699758875463877010?s=46&t=055ahI1j2Kazf04gPvC3GA

 

so yes. It does pay to read the fine print. Correctly. 

Sorry idk why my links aren’t embedding with those  

[tshile]

It is amazing how ubiquitous misinformation has become. Both sides just see and hear what they want to. 
 

also someone should tell Mike Roger he doesn’t exist. 

[TheGoodBits]

13 minutes ago, tshile said:

In the original tweet, he followed up saying that they did several different polls and this was for one of them. Then he posted the methodology for the specific poll that was posted here. 

Here:

https://x.com/stevekornacki/status/1699758290949800403?s=46&t=055ahI1j2Kazf04gPvC3GA

 

And follow up here which shows that for that specific poll it was an even makeup:

https://x.com/stevekornacki/status/1699758875463877010?s=46&t=055ahI1j2Kazf04gPvC3GA

 

so yes. It does pay to read the fine print. Correctly. 

Sorry idk why my links aren’t embedding with those  

Even so, the weighting with an even split of Republican to Democrat self identification seems lazy. Where’s that from? Just pulled an even split to make it fair?
In 2020 party identification was 48% Dem 43% GOP. I’m open to the idea the electorate won’t look the same this time but unless there is some sort of scientific reasoning behind weighting it evenly, the poll seems less than useful. 

Edited September 7, 2023 by TheGoodBits