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2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread


Going Commando

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1 hour ago, freakofthesouth said:

 

Good intel here.  I love me some Ballage, dude could be great.

 

The PFF's guy take is that he's per se down on the bigger name RBs but he philosophically isn't a believer in taking RBs early in the draft.  

 

I was just looking at the WP on twitter doing a write up on Guice.  He seems to like him a lot, among his comments

 

Love the way Guice finishes his runs. Incredible contact balance, very hard to bring down. Arm tackles wont do it. He'll drag guys along with him too.

 

Guice just refuses to go down. No idea how he stays on his feet sometimes, like on this play. So many chances for him to get tackled, but he keeps his balance and keeps pumping his legs for every extra yard

 

1 hour ago, freakofthesouth said:

 

Hard to argue with the Vea and R Smith love.  Both are outstanding and will make a difference, and the point about R Smith protecting you in the nickel, is that against the run?  

 

The pass -- he thinks he's a rare well rounded MLB can do it all. 

 

1 hour ago, freakofthesouth said:

 

I have heard some negatives on Vea though in terms of his production, work ethic, that kind of thing, but i still think he would be great, especially if he can get after the passer which I had also heard some criticism there.  But yeah big athletic dude.  a presence.

 

Yeah he is blown away by the dude.  He doesn't see him as just a traditional run stuffing nose.  He thinks he can do it all.

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@Skinsinparadise thats good to know re Vea.  I mean I like him too, and his talent it there.  Just playing devils advocate- i will find some more info on this but there are some that feel his is overrated, and sometimes takes plays off.  In his defense I have seen D Payne do that as well.  Plus the pac 12, I mean they have good talent, but it's not the SEC.  I just wonder how he would do against professional graters.  Probably pretty good!

 

My point with avoiding DT in the 1st is just that the team has many needs, and DT is probably the 1st thing they need to fill.  There are however deeper options in the draft, there's great depth at DT in the draft and we have the coaching to wait until a later selection (maybe even 2nd), plus many FA options exist.  It will depend on how they feel about Vea/Payne if they arent active with the position come next month.

 

I just don't feel like it's the same situation with WRs. Mostly overpriced cast offs dominate the meager WR FA market and we have a big need there as well, to me it almost has to be WR in the 1st, although I will concede that DJ Chark is becoming more and more interesting to me and could be had in the 2nd.  DJ Moore is intriguing as well but to me they are not day one contributors but that remains to be seen.

 

Re R Smith and the nickel, he has great speed and great coverage skills (in college), so that should translate. I worry about his size honestly at 220 and change.  having that properly rounded QB Mike LB is crucial.  again many options in FA as well as we are all discussing.

 

So i like these players, I just think there are a number of ways to go to fill the need and get solid production; with WR, not as many options.

 

I do think Jonathan Allen will have a more impactful career that any of the 1st round DTs (i know not the same position) but still lets not forget we just got "the guy" and he didnt even play 5 games.  Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, freakofthesouth said:

 

 

I do think Jonathan Allen will have a more impactful career that any of the 1st round DTs (i know not the same position) but still lets not forget we just got "the guy" and he didnt even play 5 games.  Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

 

 

 

I am a big Allen guy but he's not a true nose.  The Giants couldn't stop the run in 2015.  They sign Damon Harrison and all of a sudden they are really good at it.  The Eagles run defense was great this year, some say that was about adding Jernigan to Cox.

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I'm warming to the idea of trading right out of the first. It may be a fitting way to celebrate the 10 year anniversary of the great draft of 2008. Get me multiple 2nd rounders.

 

Clearly the result needs to be better than a wanna be model come musician, a weed addict who can't keep his eyes open, and a poorly constructed grooming utensil.

 

 

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4 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

I'm warming to the idea of trading right out of the first. It may be a fitting way to celebrate the 10 year anniversary of the great draft of 2008. Get me multiple 2nd rounders.

 

Clearly the result needs to be better than a wanna be model come musician, a weed addict who can't keep his eyes open, and a poorly constructed grooming utensil.

 

 

I am agreeing with you to an extent. I want out of that 13th spot and pick up an extra second. Put us somewhere between 25-32 in the 1st. Eyeball that board and see whats there. The more I do this data thing and check out where players are being drafted with production the more value I see in the second. I only see one back going in the first and zero 3-4 dlineman. That will result in a bonanza come second round and I want us sitting square there waiting for value to fall in our lap.

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I think there is gonna be a lot of blue chips there and a lot of bust bait. 

 

The 4 big DL are all blue chip, can't go wrong picks; Vea, Payne, Bryan and Hurst. 

 

If somehow elite talent like Chubb, James or Nelson fall because of QB/RB surge, no brainer IMO.

 

I just see us going WR or something out of left field like QB and just miss a sure thing. 

 

I named 7 guys who really can't miss. There's gonna be 3 QB's gone by our pick, probably 4 and possibly 5. Barkley also gonna be gone.We just can't go reaching for WR, RB or CB. The skill positions are always harder to predict success for. We need a plug and play blue chipper. The bigger the better

 

 

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  1.  

    Mark Bullock Retweeted Kennedy Paynter

    With Barkley, Guice & Michel, all are very good and it depends on scheme fit for me. Barkley highest upside but needs offense built around him. Michel is the best pure runner in terms of mental processing, tempo and setting up blocks. Guice has amazing contact balance and power.

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1 hour ago, wilco_holland said:

If we go DT I'm not even sure I want Vea or Payne. I really like Hurst a lot and Bryan of Florida intrigues me. He looks like very hybrid player who's best football is ahead. 

Seriously... Vita Vea can play in the NFL and be effectively immediately. What would make you think he wouldn't be an asset in the middle??

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58 minutes ago, Bonez3 said:

Seriously... Vita Vea can play in the NFL and be effectively immediately. What would make you think he wouldn't be an asset in the middle??

 

It's not that I don't think he can play and be effective. I just question if he is better then the others. 

 

I think Payne is really good against the run with maybe pass rush talent. Can improve. 

 

Vea looks really all round but there aren't a lot of players that size, who really add a lot in passrush. If he would be a Haloti Ngata type, it's amazing. Even he only had 4 seasons with more then 2,5 sacks. 

 

Hurst his quickness us crazy. If you can get him in a system where he can shoot gaps. He will be a force but against the run less effective. 

 

When I look at Bryan I see a lot to like. High effort side like to side line. Reads the game well. Athletic. But his pure power is questionab. Can he train that or will lineman pure overpower him on plays in the NFL. 

 

So you have two better run stoppers. Two with more pass rush talent. What do you then want. We might need first one more but not sure. 

 

 

 

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So here is a rundown of running back production but first I want to address the list on the D-Lineman. While watching the guys after seeing the production stats one guy stood out over all of the others and that was Harrison Phillips. I believe that guy to be a better player than Vea, Payne, and Bryan. Guy is not getting the love at all from mock drafts. He is not as strong as the other guys but he is so shifty that he is able to beat double teams more than the other three. He has an uncanny ability to break double teams on the regular with some nifty moves that the other guys cant. He is a guy we can put in the rotation and supply plenty of pressure in the middle. A true 3 down player way more than the other three.

 

Onto the running backs. I really feel like there is only one first rounder in Barkley. Jones from USC may sneak into the back end but I believe the rest can be had later. I am off the Chubb train after watching him. That is Perine part 2. No thanks. Jones, Michel, Johnson, Guice, should all be there in the second. I like Johnson the most still but Jones is a close second. My boom guy is Akrum Wadley. Put up massive numbers against stout competition. The guy is electric. The only problem is he cannot be a bell cow and is much like Thompson which we already have. I also like the way Penny runs. I actually love it. Power, burst, and wiggle. May go a lot earlier than a lot of people think.

 

Looking at the class from last year you can see why with production value that they had go where they went. Fournette had nasty stats and still put up numbers. That is why I am not a fan of Guice. Wondering if he is a product of the system and he is my bust pick if there was one along with Cubb. Looking at Rob Kelley you can see why the guy was not drafted. You can see it in the pros too as he constantly takes the wrong lane. His vision is non existent. He can easily be replaced with almost any back in this draft. I think the top end running backs were better last year but I believe this will be the overall better year for a back just due to the sheer number of quality out there much like the 3-4 lineman. Hope you all enjoy.

 

Running Back Rush Yds Rec Yds Total Worth School SOS  
Saquan Barkley 57.4 16.7 31.8 105.9 Penn State 12  
Sony Michel 31.6 3.6 20.2 55.4 Georgia 8  
Nick Chubb 34.7 1.1 21 56.8 Georgia 8  
Kerryon Johnson 45.5 5.9 25 76.4 Auburn 11  
Derrius Guice 46.3 4.6 25.7 76.6 LSU 38  
Ronald Jones 59.8 4.4 25.6 89.8 USC 27  
Akrum Wadley 61.2 14.2 34.1 109.5 Iowa 3  
Rashaad Penny 68.3 7 45.8 121.1 San Diego St. 90  
Royce Freeman 45.2 6.6 28.5 80.3 Oregon 58  
Bo Scarbrough 16.9 4 11.3 32.2 Alabama 22  
               
               
               
               
Rob Kelley 16.7 1.3 6.9 24.9 Tulane 86  
Sam Perine 34.4 2.5 16.1 53 Oklahoma 30  
Clinton Portis 53.4 4.5 26.5 84.4 Miami    
Dalvin Cook 67.1 14.2 37.1 118.4 FSU 5  
Leonard Fournette 30.1 6.4 19.4 55.9 LSU *Injured           7  
Christian McCaffery 58.9 15 40 113.9 Stanford 13  
Alvin Kamara 22.3 12.6 17.1 52 Tennessee 22  

 

 

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11 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

I'm warming to the idea of trading right out of the first. It may be a fitting way to celebrate the 10 year anniversary of the great draft of 2008. Get me multiple 2nd rounders.

 

Clearly the result needs to be better than a wanna be model come musician, a weed addict who can't keep his eyes open, and a poorly constructed grooming utensil.

 

 

lol, the great draft of 2008.  Lets draft Devin Thomas, Fred Davis and Malcolm Kelly again.   

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WR D.J. CHARK, LOUISIANA STATE

Chark can affect an offense in a number of ways. As a wide receiver, Chark has shown an ability to line up at multiple spots and produce. In 2017, Chark played 174 snaps at left wide receiver, 202 snaps at right wide receiver, and 143 snaps in the slot. Chark’s 2.92 yards per route run ranks No. 18 among all FBS draft-eligible wide receivers. Chark showed he is one of the premier deep threats in the draft class as he had 14 deep catches — targeted 20 or more yards downfield — which tied him at No. 8 among all FBS draft-eligible wide receivers and his 572 yards by way of deep passes ranks No. 6 among FBS draft-eligible wide receivers. Chark also boasts four career rushing touchdowns and he can be used effectively on end-arounds. Chark also returned two punts for touchdowns in 2017. Chark showcased his versatility against the top draft-eligible talent at the Senior Bowl as he caught five of seven targets for 160 yards and one touchdown, including 65 yards after the catch. Chark also forced two missed tackles as a runner and made a special-teams tackle. Chark finished the game with an 85.6 overall grade.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-the-most-versatile-offensive-weapons-in-the-2018-draft

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15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

WR D.J. CHARK, LOUISIANA STATE

Chark can affect an offense in a number of ways. As a wide receiver, Chark has shown an ability to line up at multiple spots and produce. In 2017, Chark played 174 snaps at left wide receiver, 202 snaps at right wide receiver, and 143 snaps in the slot. Chark’s 2.92 yards per route run ranks No. 18 among all FBS draft-eligible wide receivers. Chark showed he is one of the premier deep threats in the draft class as he had 14 deep catches — targeted 20 or more yards downfield — which tied him at No. 8 among all FBS draft-eligible wide receivers and his 572 yards by way of deep passes ranks No. 6 among FBS draft-eligible wide receivers. Chark also boasts four career rushing touchdowns and he can be used effectively on end-arounds. Chark also returned two punts for touchdowns in 2017. Chark showcased his versatility against the top draft-eligible talent at the Senior Bowl as he caught five of seven targets for 160 yards and one touchdown, including 65 yards after the catch. Chark also forced two missed tackles as a runner and made a special-teams tackle. Chark finished the game with an 85.6 overall grade.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-the-most-versatile-offensive-weapons-in-the-2018-draft

 

4.39 Approx 40 per nfldraftscout.com

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On 2/16/2018 at 4:25 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

PFF guy on 106.7.  Some of his takes

 

He thinks some of the next tier QBs like Lauletta will be better than the first tier.  He likes Lauletta and charted all of his games.

 

For RB, he's rather go next tier in the draft for the position than the top tier guys.  He's not a big Guice or Michel guy.  He'd rather draft someone later in the draft like Freeman, Ballage.    He said he was a big Kareem Hunt guy last year before the draft.

 

Deep threats he likes later in the draft Texas Tech -- Keke Coutee. 

 

He loves Vea.  No brainer pick for the Redskins at 13.  He has quick feet, has power, can do everything.  He's not just a run stuffer, can rush the passer.  He's a rare cat.

 

Roquan Smith -- he loves too.  If he's a Redskins fan, one of these guys is who you want: Vea is 1, Smith is 1A.    What makes him special is he can cover.  He can do it all.  He protects you in the nickel.  

 

Davenport, he likes but not loves, thinks he's a bit raw. 

We need NT/LB/S in the worst way. I want Vea then an LB then a S don’t care how you get them the middle is awful

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 On Guice, he's my version of Dalvin Cook last year.  They are different type of runners.  But almost every time I watched Cook, he just seemed so explosive -- so I couldn't let that go last off season in spite of the combine and the other criticisms. So I stuck with him.  Same thing with me as to Guice, he just seemed to be a beast when I watched his games.  Besides him as a runner -- love the dude's feistiness-attitude.  As Cooley likes to say on offense he's desperate to see them add some angry guys with attitudes -- and if they do so it could have a positive ripple effect on the team.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000816965/article/first-look-scouting-lsu-rb-derrius-guice

Biggest takeaway: Penn State's Saquon Barkley is going to enter the 2017 CFB season as the top running back in the country, but Guice belongs in his company. He's an explosive runner with excellent balance and a tenacious style. He isn't quite as powerful as his former teammate Fournette, but he has a little more wiggle and elusiveness. I see a little bit of LaDainian Tomlinson in his running style, but he really reminds me of a young Frank Gore. He's a tough guy to get on the ground.

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2018/02/14/pfw-nfl-draft-newsletter-sample-mosher-charts-the-top-rbs/a6fjmrs/#//

No. 2 - Derrius Guice, LSU

(Games charted - Alabama, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, Florida)

Average number of defenders in the box - 7.25

Average number of blockers in the box - 7.10

Of the five running backs charted, LSU’s Derrius Guice saw, on average, the most defenders in the box as well as the most blockers in the box. Defenses loaded up to stop Guice, as he was the team’s best weapon and needed to be accounted for on every snap. However, LSU also played a part in creating stacked boxes for Guice, as he rarely ran out of 10 and 11 personnel. Guice played in what we would call a traditional “NFL-offense,” as LSU used a ton of 12 and 21 personnel to run the ball.

While running out of more traditional boxes may have hurt Guice’s college statistics, it prepared him more for what he is going to see in the NFL. Guice saw eight defenders in the box on nearly 24 percent of his carries, averaging more than 6.75 yards per carry. He saw eight or more defenders in the box on a staggering 31.8 percent of his total rushes, by far the most of the top backs in this class.

The most impressive stats for Guice come when you compare the number of defenders in the box versus the number of blockers in the box. When Guice saw an even box (same number of blockers as defenders) in 2017, he averaged an incredible 8.4 yards per rush on 75 carries. Assuming Guice can find himself on a team that runs a ton of inside zone out of 12 or 21 personnel, he should thrive in the NFL against six- and seven-man boxes.

Guice isn’t the receiver that Saquon Barkley is, nor is he the pass protector, but as a pure runner, you can make the case that his skill set is better suited for the NFL game. He is more likely to be a consistent runner at the next level, as he rarely loses yardage despite the extra defenders in the box.

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@fordranger76 i am so diggin on pretty much everything you’re saying right now.  So the stats you’re producing, that’s like a market share kinda thing right??  Sorry just wanna be clear.  I love this approach because these are just like, tangible statistics that are being analyzed... I too have seen that VV just isn’t showing the production.  Everyone loves him, he’s flashy and a behemoth, but can he be productive? 

 

Interesting to hear and your points re H Phillips as he seems to fit that more versatile guy that the skins like, can rush the passer and play the run, and he has shown his ability to do so by making solo tackles... among other things... I read somewhere that the worst run d was when we were in nickel, so is the biggest need an NT or are we talking about an interior pass rushing specialist a la Jonathan Allen?  That seems to be the trend NFL in this passing league... Also notable the value of WRs is greater in said league.

 

R Kelley’s time needs to run it course. I agree completely that he clearly misses open lanes and has poor vision.  I mean dang I like the guy but we gotta talk R Kelley.  I can see them adding an RB in the later rounds because it’s such a deep class this year.  How does Ballage settle in here in the table?  So many great late round talents, why not burn a 5 or a 6 on one and see how it goes?  nyhiem Hines maybe?  He will go earlier, but depth for sure.

 

also in the DT mold Tim Settle is a guy I like to watch.  It’ll be interesting to see how Torrian Gray’s VT roots will influence the draft...

 

editing in this gem from Keim on the nickel run D:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/35642/jonathan-allen-alex-smith-can-help-redskins-improve-four-ugly-numbers

Quote

It really matters when the Redskins are in nickel; they allowed an NFL-worst 6.47 yards per carry. But, overall, this stat matters because it’s the worst thing the Redskins do defensively. They ranked in the top half on third downs; in the red zone; net yards per pass attempt; sacks per pass attempt. A big key to improving this defense is stopping the run.

 

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Really like Guice but his running style is so violent that I worry about how long he'll last in the NFL. Don't get me wrong, I love a hard nosed smash mouth RB who relishes contact but those guys don't tend to last as long unless they're very big backs and Guice is pretty moderately sized. Also really liking Ronald Jones and how damn fast he hits the hole and can stop on a dime. Also, for a 6'0 guy he seems able to lower his pads pretty well. 

 

On another note, can someone please explain why so many are high on Payne? Yeah he's a pretty good DT but his stats are between poor and mediocre. He isn't much of a pass rushing threat (just 3 sacks in 3 years) or a TFL threat (just 5 in 3 years). Compare his stats to Jonathan Allen...it's absolutely night and day. If you're taking a DT in the 1st round you'd really want him to be more of a pass rushing threat as well as a run stuffer, especially with the more gap shooting system we tend to use as a base package. I think he'd be a huge reach at 13.

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    Receiving Rushing Scrimmage
Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
Career Texas A&M         229 2796 12.2 26 21 121 5.8 0 250 2917 11.7 26
*2015 Texas A&M SEC FR WR 13 80 1009 12.6 7 11 54 4.9 0 91 1063 11.7 7
*2016 Texas A&M SEC SO WR 13 83 928 11.2 9 8 35 4.4 0 91 963 10.6 9
*2017 Texas A&M SEC JR WR 12 66 859 13.0 10 2 32 16.0 0 68 891 13.1 10

 

    Kick Ret Punt Ret
Year School Conf Class Pos G Ret Yds Avg TD Ret Yds Avg TD
Career Texas A&M         44 936 21.3 1 37 814 22.0 6
*2015 Texas A&M SEC FR WR 13 20 385 19.3 0 14 341 24.4 2
*2016 Texas A&M SEC SO WR 13 6 173 28.8 0 13 282 21.7 3
*2017 Texas A&M SEC JR WR 12 18 378 21.0 1 10 191 19.1 1

 

 

0 fumbles in 331 touches.  12.2/ catch, 5.8/ carry.  32 total touchdowns.

 

 

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@freakofthesouth  Yeah its more or less the market share thing. It's kind of amazing what you find while digging through the stats and what it can do is lead you to prospects film and wondering how they are acquiring the stats. Really have to keep SOS in mind doing them though. All college teams are not created equal thats for sure. Regarding Vita. When I watched a highlight tape I was really impressed. Power and speed for a big guy like that. I wanted bad. Watching cut ups of his individual plays? Not so much. Yes there are times he breaks a double team and shows an immense amount of power but he is slow. I mean slow. No burst against better lineman. And oh yeah he takes a ton of plays off. Just have to watch full game tape to see it. Out of all of the NT I have watched he is by far the laziest of the bunch.

 

Phillips is the guy or type of guy that the Skins are probably looking at. I really don't think they want that big NT in the middle. They want to get 3 downs out of the guy. Bryan is probably the next best to Phillips early on but is really raw. He gets high on engaging the lineman and gets pushed back sometimes. However when he gets set and low you can see his power. He is raw but I see the potential of a 3 down guy. I really really want Phillips though out of them all. He can split the double so subtle that he looks slow doing it. But he isnt. He just splits them time and time again with a sneak dip of the shoulder and gets home. He reminds me of someone cutting through a packed mall at Christmas time wading through the crowds at record speed haha. I have not looked at Settle all that much yet but he is a huge and big dude. Again his stats look productive so there is something to him. I just dont think he will be a Skins type lineman.

 

I have not looked at Ballage yet simply due to the sheer amount of runningbacks. After the combine I will update to see some of the lower tier guys that make a splash there. My problem with the backs though is I believe now is the time to get a stud. They are there and we can get one. I think the later round approach has been done to death by the Skins so I really want them to aim high. I would love to see the trade back scenario play out to get another 2nd or 3rd or hell both.

 

@mistertim The Payne love is confusing once you look at his stats and his tape. He tore up Georgia. But go back and watch it. He was taking an undersized center and simply mauling him. As soon as they slapped a double team on him it all stopped. No where to be found again. Same thing happens on a lot of his game tape. Can be invisible at times. He does not do well against double teams at all but people love him. I think because its a big boy from Bama. People love those guys. People say well he is eating blocks. Well I got news for everyone. Every other NT I graded had better stats than him and also guess what? All faced double teams just as much as him. That Bama defense is stacked to the gills. He stands out as a sore thumb and JAG. I would not take the guy until the 5th at earliest and yes I am dead serious.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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@fordranger76 really solid stuff.

 

i recall the team sayin, when asked about NT last camp, that they want guys that can play anywhere on the DL, which lends itself to them kicking inside in nickel and being versatile.  To me I agree that H Phillips would be a great fit and sort of follow that same mold.  Coming from Wisconsin right, his competition level is decent. I worry some about era from the pac 12 in the 1st round, but I don’t have a lot of intel to back that up... VV is all flash and no real production to lean on.  Also you have the two guys from Ohio state that can be effective inside, then also like Rasheem green... like I said I dig settle, even Trenton Thompson has shown out well in the sec no less.  Ideally I see two DL additions while maybe letting go of McClain which might make sense: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/positional/

 

re RB I am totally with you that there is wonderful talent this year and that a great RB could be had in the early rounds.  It would be a reach to snag say, Guice in the 1st. If Saq falls then yeah, but that’s Probably not going to happen... 2nd round you have a handful of backs that could be there.  I think teams value speed too much to have RJ fall to us in the 2nd, but if that happens we should pull the trigger.

 

then there’s the obligatory conversation re run blocking and our backs.  They have had very little room to operate.  I think a major acquisition on the interior d line would go a long way for the backs we have.  I watched a lot of tape on Perine last year and I do think he can really make a difference.  Best 4 minute back in the country they said when he was coming out.

 

i just don’t know if they will go after an RB at all given the signing of Bibbs and the current ‘depth’ they have at the position.  I want them to bring someone in tho!  I still gotta drop names like John Kelly, and even bo Scar, gimme one of those guys in the 4th.

 

i agree that a trade back would be great.  The good news is we’re just in front of the cardinals and someone might want a lamar Jackson or josh Allen and w’re sitting in a great spot.  If we fill WR in FA then I would be more for the trade.  Like last year, WR might go earlier than folks think.

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13 hours ago, Otis Wonsley Posse said:

We need NT/LB/S in the worst way. I want Vea then an LB then a S don’t care how you get them the middle is awful

So, one of Vea/Hurst/Roquan Smith/Derwin James certainly going to be there...If we mess this up I'll be pissed

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