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The Brexit Thread


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1 hour ago, MartinC said:

Worth noting that (broadly) pro remain parties in the UK won a higher share of the vote and more seats than the Brexit party + UKIP.

How do you figure?  Only if you discount both the Labour and Conservative parties which are certainly ambiguous but officially pro Brexit (The parties themselves split over hard, soft or no Brexit, however the hard and soft Brexit combined make up majorities in each though).

Edited by nonniey
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I think Labour is pretty much "no Brexit" with a thin "soft Brexit" exterior.

 

Corbyn is moving towards full support of a second referendum, while other high ranking members have already called for it.

 

There's no real reason to push a 2nd referendum unless you feel the first might have been decided wrongly.  Combined with the fleeing of people from Labour to pro-Remain parties, it suggests the party leaders may have miscalculated the popularity of Brexit in their own caucus, and that the party line may thus be "wrong."

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26 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

I think Labour is pretty much "no Brexit" with a thin "soft Brexit" exterior.

 

Corbyn is moving towards full support of a second referendum, while other high ranking members have already called for it.

 

There's no real reason to push a 2nd referendum unless you feel the first might have been decided wrongly.  Combined with the fleeing of people from Labour to pro-Remain parties, it suggests the party leaders may have miscalculated the popularity of Brexit in their own caucus, and that the party line may thus be "wrong."

 

Corbyn is a Eurosceptic dating back to the 70s. Brexit partially is also a cluster**** of his own making.

 

The UK is better off with Labour losing power to Lib Dems, who were ballsy enough to campaign on "Bollocks to Brexit". Corbyn still cant bring himself in alignment with the liberal/left of the country that wants nothing to do with Brexit.

 

Something like 70-80% of the Labour base favors a second referendum and he still can't be a rational voice on this issue because he himself is not a believer in the EU.

Edited by No Excuses
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On 5/28/2019 at 12:49 AM, nonniey said:

How do you figure?  Only if you discount both the Labour and Conservative parties which are certainly ambiguous but officially pro Brexit (The parties themselves split over hard, soft or no Brexit, however the hard and soft Brexit combined make up majorities in each though).

 

Nice breakdown here

 

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/05/lord-ashcroft-my-eu-election-poll-most-former-tory-voters-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party-at-the-next-election.html

 

It's a complex picture. But broadly although Labours official policy is 'soft" Brexit that was a position taken by a small number of people around the leader and within their National Executive Committee. The majority of their MPs are against Brexit and the majority of people who voted for them are against Brexit. The opposite is true of the Conservatives - the majority of people who voted for them are for a version of Brexit. Labour have now come out in favor of a second referendum if a General Election is not called (which it will not be).

 

You can consider the Labour party and vote now broadly pro remain.

 

The Brexit party picked up pretty much all the vote that used to go to UKIP, along with hard liners who had previously voted Tory as their vote collapsed. The Labour vote also collapsed and some went to Brexit party but most went to to the Lib Dems (pro remain).

 

There was a 5% swing to the Brexit party over the results last gained by UKIP and that is almost all a result of the Conservative vote imploding. So nothing dramatic.

 

Overall of people who voted in both the Referendum on Brexit in 2016 and voted in these Euro election 50% favor remaining in the EU and 45% favor some form of Brexit (the balance did not vote).

 

On seats there are 37 broadly pro remain MEPs against 33 broadly pro Brexit.

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