How Kyle's Future and the Skins' Read-Option Future Are Linked

[Lavarleap56]

LL: QB's are more vulnerable on scrambles because once they get out of the pocket they are flying solo in chaos. A coordinator has every defender accounted for with a blocker except the free defender & the FS. When the read option is run right the QB is 1 on 1 with the FS. I will take those odds all day...

1) Is there a RB on earth who wouldn't rather run in an open field than through a line? Why would it be different for a scrambling QB?

2) You constructed a perfect blocking scenario that rarely happens. If it did, why bother running the QB? You could have the RB against the FS which is a better match-up. You would never lose a game.

In 2009 Clady was playing under J,McDaniels. New offense & QB changed a lot of things for Clady.

That was my point. Shanahan used Cutler's mobility in a scheme that made Clady look super. So, if Mike could do that for Clady, he could use Griff to do it for Trent and his O-line mates.

So, if the read-option is absolutely the most effective way Kyle has ever seen to protect a QB, how do we explain that the 2012 Skins, using the read-option, allowed three times as many sacks (33) as the 2008 Broncos (11) which didn't use the read-option?

Kyle's selling snake oil, IMO.

Robert wasn't running through the line on the read option, and you can't compare him to a RB running through the line. The differance is a RB is running within the structure of the play vs a QB who is scrambling when everything breaks down after 4-5 seconds, totally different scenarios.

I described a blocking scenario that works as planned a lot more times than you will admit. It's not a rare occurrence, 100% no, but not rare. The onus is on Robert to run when the RO is open to do so, then it's on him to protect himself by slidding or getting out of bounds period.

Your Clady point is flawed as I've said. The scheme didn't make him look super, he is a premier LT that didn't play well for a new coach, system, & a average QB in Orton. Kyle is running the same stuff they've always ran with the addition of a RO package (13% of called plays in the 2012

offense)..

I get that you don't like the RO portion of the offense but it's not going anywhere in 2013. Fact is the NFL is at a point where adapting to the college talent is at a premium in a win now league. The influx of legit dual threat QBs are proving that the traditonal offenses aren't the only way to do things within the current rules. 20 years from now the RO could be a traditonal staple like the HB dive..

[Jumbo]

Good post, LL. I expect relatively minor adjustments re: RG3 usage (mostly on Robert's end), not major shifts. I except we are going to use more personnel (weapons) on offense than last year, and that will add to our potency and options and will also give DC's more things to worry about. I think we may be actually innovative yet again and not just tweaking last year's scheme to protect RG3. Argh. Want to play! lol

[Oldfan]

Pedro: Honest about his physical state, what else?

 

My point was that his physical state was visible to millions.

[pjfootballer]

Mike Shanahan has to be the only coach who has 3 superbowl rings yet still is disrespected left and right like he hasn't accomplished anything in this league. The guy has put several players in the hall of fame and won more than he has lost yet people call him "egotistical"?

I was about to say the same thing. He helped Steve Young win a Super Bowl. Helped Elway get to 4 Super Bowls (Winning 2 as a Head Coach)

And he has come in and changed the culture of a team that was the laughing stock of the league. But he still needs another Super Bowl to be considered for the HOF??? Come on now...

I want my coach to have an ego. Who wants Richie Kotite running your team? But if course he has to have limitations. Don't want Buddy Ryan types either.

[Jumbo]

**EDIT**

If in the future, you want something done before you post, just PM me.  Doing this is trivial once you have the data.

 

Cool offer. Can I consult with you about this redhead? I keep struggling with the basic math.

[CrypticVillain]

 

Mike Shanahan has to be the only coach who has 3 superbowl rings yet still is disrespected left and right like he hasn't accomplished anything in this league. The guy has put several players in the hall of fame and won more than he has lost yet people call him "egotistical"?

I was about to say the same thing. He helped Steve Young win a Super Bowl. Helped Elway get to 4 Super Bowls (Winning 2 as a Head Coach)

And he has come in and changed the culture of a team that was the laughing stock of the league. But he still needs another Super Bowl to be considered for the HOF??? Come on now...

I want my coach to have an ego. Who wants Richie Kotite running your team? But if course he has to have limitations. Don't want Buddy Ryan types either.

True.

I know people don't like this word a lot... but Shanny has a certain swagger about him. He is borderline ****y, but he's still aware to the fact that he isn't the ****.

 

I will never forget how blown I was when he hired him as coach. But that is my dude now. I am so glad we hired him.

Oh yeah, as far as the read-option being bad/good and whatnot, I just think that it is effective. And if it continues to work, people will run it.

 

With that being said, I think it is going to be even more important to have two good QB's on your roster.

[Lavarleap56]

Good post, LL. I expect relatively minor adjustments re: RG3 usage (mostly on Robert's end), not major shifts. I except we are going to use more personnel (weapons) on offense than last year, and that will add to our potency and options and will also give DC's more things to worry about. I think we may be actually innovative yet again and not just tweaking last year's scheme to protect RG3. Argh. Want to play! lol

Thanks, I totally agree with a lot of this. The pistol & the RO are still going to be used regularly in the 2013 offense but new personnel allows for more offensive creativity. Guys like Reid, Thompson, & even Paul in year 2 will be used to create mismatches & to make life easier on RG.

Fans think running the traditonal Shanny offense would be easy with RG, and they question why we don't since Cousins had great success with it vs Cleveland. It comes down to how a defense perceives the QB under center for the Redskins. Mcnabb & RG haven't been able to really utilize the swap boot action because the backside rusher respects them as a run threat, QB gets his head around and has a DE in his face - See Ware vs RG in 2012 or Chi/GB vs Mcnabb in 2010. When Beck, Grossman, & Cousins were under center the backside rushers don't key on the QB since they don't respect them as a run threat, coincidentally the swap boot pa worked a high percentage of the time like it did back in Shanahans Denver days.

If defenses can negate the swap boot than it limits a majority the pa offense the Shanahans are known for, so they had to come up with another way to get it done & that's the Pistol & RO sets. It's more about Shanahan evolving his offense vs running a offense just because. Mike is a lot of things but stupid is not one of them, the guy knows offense.

People like to criticize the PA offense & say it's a crutch that is used to help RG, but it's more about allowing the Shannys to pick apart & manipulate a defense how they see fir than a crutch.. Shanny is a Bill Walsh guy and Walsh at one point preached that PA was one of the most dominant tools in a offenses weaponry.

[Jumbo]

Yup on the swap/boot observations (and another typical great post) and I have been seeing this off-season/season as Kyle and Mike just starting to be in a position to really play with their box of toys and forming long term (and creative) plans, and not getting ready to "retro"-change the table they're setting them upon. Intelligent and informed adjustments with safety in mind, yes, but RG3 will continue to be a mobile fear factor well beyond the norm, overall. Now I admit that may be fairly labeled the "optimist" view. There are counter-arguments to be made about Mike's ego and history that reasonably allow for skepticism. I acknowledge that--and that's related to what I posted about Mike's legacy. While KS is OC, I am wagering that's Mike's overall intelligence will trump some ego-driven desire to "unnecessarily risk" RG3, or "abuse" him via play-calling, as the better path to follow to achieve his goals.

[Oldfan]

PeterMP: In the end, the data supports the idea that the difference between RGIII getting hit more on called runs vs. scrambles beyond the LOS is likely large enough that is it non-random, while getting hurt is completely consistent with it being random.

 

So, the data support the idea that Robert is more likely to get hit on designed runs than on scrambles. 

 

However, while the data doesn't support it, logic supports the idea that there is likely a correlation between hits and injuries. But, more to the point of my thread,  it is unlikely that the counter-intuitive claim of the Shanahans that the read-option is safer for a QB than pass plays (on a per-play basis) will ever be supported by data.

 

20% hits on pass plays

70% hits on designed runs

 

Would you agree?

[Oldfan]

LL: Your Clady point is flawed as I've said. The scheme didn't make him look super, he is a premier LT that didn't play well for a new coach, system, & a average QB in Orton. Kyle is running the same stuff they've always ran with the addition of a RO package (13% of called plays in the 2012 offense)..

Cutler and the Shanahan scheme made the entire line look super in pass pro in 2008.

 

You are arguing that a good scheme had no effect on Clady's performance, but a bad scheme did. And, Orton's immobility and Cutler's mobility had no effect on the degree of difficulty Clady faced in protecting them. That reasoning doesn't add up for me.

 

I get that you don't like the RO portion of the offense but it's not going anywhere in 2013. Fact is the NFL is at a point where adapting to the college talent is at a premium in a win now league. The influx of legit dual threat QBs are proving that the traditonal offenses aren't the only way to do things within the current rules. 20 years from now the RO could be a traditonal staple like the HB dive.. 

 

We disagree, but I respect your opinion on the game in any case. 

[Lavarleap56]

PeterMP: In the end, the data supports the idea that the difference between RGIII getting hit more on called runs vs. scrambles beyond the LOS is likely large enough that is it non-random, while getting hurt is completely consistent with it being random.

So, the data support the idea that Robert is more likely to get hit on designed runs than on scrambles.

However, while the data doesn't support it, logic supports the idea that there is likely a correlation between hits and injuries. But, more to the point of my thread, it is unlikely that the counter-intuitive claim of the Shanahans that the read-option is safer for a QB than pass plays (on a per-play basis) will ever be supported by data.

20% hits on pass plays

70% hits on designed runs

Would you agree?

Leading question based on half of the facts.. Shannys are correct that the Read Option play keeps the QB safer as they've stated. They also stated immediately after that Robert has to do a better job protecting himself. Kyle also specifically spoke about the Read Option play pass being safer & the cleanest pockets he's ever seen, and he's correct. Robert took hits in the traditonal pass game all year as the stats show in the OP, but he stayed clean passing out of the RO for most of the season.

[Oldfan]

Jumbo: I also could easily see any hungry GM/owner looking at Kyle's positives and rationalizing away another serious Griffin injury, even if it appears that Kyle makes some questionable calls that seem like putting Griffin at "extra risk", as Griffin simply being unable to maintain his health in this sport at a tough position after two serious previous injuries. 

 

Your QB has an outstanding skillset as a passer with great mobility;

He's fast, but he shows little skill as a runner;

He looks like he's going to hurt himself when he slides;

He had reconstructive surgery on both knees;

Yet, you used him on designed runs and he suffered another knee injury.

 

And you think you are qualified to be my head coach? Erm, Jumbo...

[Oldfan]

LL: Leading question based on half of the facts.. Shannys are correct that the Read Option play keeps the QB safer as they've stated. They also stated immediately after that Robert has to do a better job protecting himself. Kyle also specifically spoke about the Read Option play pass being safer & the cleanest pockets he's ever seen, and he's correct. Robert took hits in the traditonal pass game all year as the stats show in the OP, but he stayed clean passing out of the RO for most of the season.

 

I've already debated these "facts." I try to avoid repetition in these exchanges.

[PeterMP]

I was looking for more stats related to the RO vs. non-RO and decided to do some looking with respect to the SeaHawks, and I found few interesting things:

 

1.  Wilson claims SeaHawks don't really run RO much, but look like they do:

 

http://profootballzone.com/nfl/russell-wilson-claims-the-seahawks-dont-run-the-read-option-that-much/

 

2.  SeaHawks coach says the don't run Wilson into the middle of the field like the Redskins do RGIII:

 

"If you look at what Washington is doing or Carolina, the quarterback is part of it," Cable said of those running games. "He's going to go in there and keep it and run down there in what we call the briar patch."

 

That's not in Seattle's plans. Never has been. Because even when Wilson became a larger part of the run game over the final month of the season – averaging 52 yards rushing and scoring four touchdowns over the final five regular-season games – there were limits to his freedom. He wasn't to go up in that briar patch.

 

"We weren't going to run him up in the there because in my opinion ... that's foolish," Cable said. "We're fortunate enough to have a franchise guy. Those are special dudes, so take care of him, and that's what we'll do."

 

http://mynorthwest.com/422/2306436/Seahawks-balancing-risk-and-reward-with-readoption

 

 

3.  Some stats seem to back that up.

 

http://thesidelineview.com/columns/nfl/nfl-believes-readoption-here-stay

 

When the SeaHawks do run RO, Wilson keeps the ball fewer times (maybe it isn't really RO, and the called play is a handoff and he doesn't really have an option unless he wants to essentially ignore the play call), and when he does run it, he runs into the middle less.

 

(I did try and do some statistics with these, but there are issues where they give numbers as % and what I really want is absolute values.  But based on my doing the math backwards, which ended up including some rounding neither of them come up as significant though him keeping the ball fewer times is pretty close (if you extrapolte the same numbers for both teams over 10 games, it is significant, but at that point in time it isn't really based on the data (they didn't collect data over the whole season).).  In addition, this is where you can really get in trouble in terms of sport stats because maybe the numbers are baised in particular ways because of the teams they played, the field conditions of the games, or something else.  I think this is clearly a case where more data (the whole season) would be better.)

 

**EDIT**

I should point out the guy that did the stats seems to be disconnected from the Sea Hawks coach, and the idea that the don't run Wilson into the middle.  If the person that did the stats has any issue with the idea of running RGIII into the middle, it isn't expressed in the piece.

[Oldfan]

Jumbo: I am wagering that's Mike's overall intelligence will trump some ego-driven desire to "unnecessarily risk" RG3, or "abuse" him via play-calling, as the better path to follow to achieve his goals.

 

I'd like to think that also. But, the Shanahan rhetoric that I've read on the topic seems to be aimed at pinning the blame on their player, both for what happened and what needs to be done to correct it. It seems they've convinced the majority in this forum of that. But, I don't see it that way. I see a shared responsibility.

 

So, I don't have your confidence in the Shannies..

[NoCalMike]

I don't remember many RO plays where the design of the play had RGIII running in the "briar patch"  From my memory they mostly had him going around the corner and then from there he would either go out of bounds or cut back into the field.

 

Seems if he cut down on making his own decision to cut down on cutting back into the middle of the field, then it wouldn't look that much different than Wilson/Seahawks RO plays.

 

Also, Kyle Shanahan has been successful designing a top offense without the aid of the RO....in Houston.

[Lavarleap56]

LL: Leading question based on half of the facts.. Shannys are correct that the Read Option play keeps the QB safer as they've stated. They also stated immediately after that Robert has to do a better job protecting himself. Kyle also specifically spoke about the Read Option play pass being safer & the cleanest pockets he's ever seen, and he's correct. Robert took hits in the traditonal pass game all year as the stats show in the OP, but he stayed clean passing out of the RO for most of the season.

I've already debated these "facts." I try to avoid repetition in these exchanges.

Where at? Haven't seen it...

I was looking for more stats related to the RO vs. non-RO and decided to do some looking with respect to the SeaHawks, and I found few interesting things:

1. Wilson claims SeaHawks don't really run RO much, but look like they do:

http://profootballzone.com/nfl/russell-wilson-claims-the-seahawks-dont-run-the-read-option-that-much/

2. SeaHawks coach says the don't run Wilson into the middle of the field like the Redskins do RGIII:

"If you look at what Washington is doing or Carolina, the quarterback is part of it," Cable said of those running games. "He's going to go in there and keep it and run down there in what we call the briar patch."

That's not in Seattle's plans. Never has been. Because even when Wilson became a larger part of the run game over the final month of the season – averaging 52 yards rushing and scoring four touchdowns over the final five regular-season games – there were limits to his freedom. He wasn't to go up in that briar patch.

"We weren't going to run him up in the there because in my opinion ... that's foolish," Cable said. "We're fortunate enough to have a franchise guy. Those are special dudes, so take care of him, and that's what we'll do."

http://mynorthwest.com/422/2306436/Seahawks-balancing-risk-and-reward-with-readoption

3. Some stats seem to back that up.

http://thesidelineview.com/columns/nfl/nfl-believes-readoption-here-stay

When the SeaHawks do run RO, Wilson keeps the ball fewer times (maybe it isn't really RO, and the called play is a handoff and he doesn't really have an option unless he wants to essentially ignore the play call), and when he does run it, he runs into the middle less.

(I did try and do some statistics with these, but there are issues where they give numbers as % and what I really want is absolute values. But based on my doing the math backwards, which ended up including some rounding neither of them come up as significant though him keeping the ball fewer times is pretty close (if you extrapolte the same numbers for both teams over 10 games, it is significant, but at that point in time it isn't really based on the data (they didn't collect data over the whole season).). In addition, this is where you can really get in trouble in terms of sport stats because maybe the numbers are baised in particular ways because of the teams they played, the field conditions of the games, or something else. I think this is clearly a case where more data (the whole season) would be better.)

1.Skins never ran RO with RG running up the middle. They did run a basic QB draw inside the 15 yard line occasionally.

2.Seattle ran Wilson up the middle off RO vs us in the playoffs a few times.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I don't remember many RO plays where the design of the play had RGIII running in the "briar patch"  From my memory they mostly had him going around the corner and then from there he would either go out of bounds or cut back into the field.

 

Seems if he cut down on making his own decision to cut down on cutting back into the middle of the field, then it wouldn't look that much different than Wilson/Seahawks RO plays.

 

Also, Kyle Shanahan has been successful designing a top offense without the aid of the RO....in Houston.

 

Agreed. I am obviously forgetting some of his carries, but my perception of the RO was that either Morris would take it up the gut or Griffin would take it around the corner. I guess it might come down to how the Seattle coach is defining "briar patch" on the football field. Is right around the tackle/tight end still "middle" if Griffin doesn't take it very wide?

[Lavarleap56]

Jumbo: I am wagering that's Mike's overall intelligence will trump some ego-driven desire to "unnecessarily risk" RG3, or "abuse" him via play-calling, as the better path to follow to achieve his goals.

I'd like to think that also. But, the Shanahan rhetoric that I've read on the topic seems to be aimed at pinning the blame on their player, both for what happened and what needs to be done to correct it. It seems they've convinced the majority in this forum of that. But, I don't see it that way. I see a shared responsibility.

So, I don't have your confidence in the Shannies..

It's not that the Shannies have convinced anyone, it's that film from the 2012 season backs them up. I'm looking at the RO in SF & Seattle as well as DC, Pretty clear RG needed to be safer byn slidding or going out of bounds. It's really not an argument when you look at the league results along with the skins results.

[Oldfan]

LL: 1.Skins never ran RO with RG running up the middle.

 

Here are the stats [Credit to PeterMP]

 

http://thesidelineview.com/columns/nfl/nfl-believes-readoption-here-stay

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Those stats boil down to Griffin running "up the middle" once per game. Keeping in mind that we don't really know what "up the middle" means it's tough to really feel like we're putting him in "the briar patch" too much.

 

To elaborate, when I multiplied the number of times we ran the RO per game x the % the QB kept the ball x the % he ran up the middle with it, it came out as:

 

Griffin 1.20

Wilson 0.35

Kaepernick 0.20

 

So, about once per game our QB took it up the middle. Wilson did it once every third game and Kaepernick once every fifth game. Yes, that's a difference, but I don't know if 16-17 carries vs. 5-6 carries over the course of 16 games is a material difference.

[Oldfan]

LL: It's not that the Shannies have convinced anyone, it's that film from the 2012 season backs them up. 

 

The majority of this forum has been convinced by rhetoric not film study.

 

I'm looking at the RO in SF & Seattle as well as DC, Pretty clear RG needed to be safer byn slidding or going out of bounds.

 

Why is that point relevant? Have I or anyone else in this thread denied that Robert could do better at protecting himself?

[Lavarleap56]

LL: 1.Skins never ran RO with RG running up the middle.

Here are the stats [Credit to PeterMP]

http://thesidelineview.com/columns/nfl/nfl-believes-readoption-here-stay

Again... Did not run RG off RO between the Guards or up the middle.

[Lavarleap56]

LL: Your Clady point is flawed as I've said. The scheme didn't make him look super, he is a premier LT that didn't play well for a new coach, system, & a average QB in Orton. Kyle is running the same stuff they've always ran with the addition of a RO package (13% of called plays in the 2012 offense)..

Cutler and the Shanahan scheme made the entire line look super in pass pro in 2008.

You are arguing that a good scheme had no effect on Clady's performance, but a bad scheme did. And, Orton's immobility and Cutler's mobility had no effect on the degree of difficulty Clady faced in protecting them. That reasoning doesn't add up for me.

I get that you don't like the RO portion of the offense but it's not going anywhere in 2013. Fact is the NFL is at a point where adapting to the college talent is at a premium in a win now league. The influx of legit dual threat QBs are proving that the traditonal offenses aren't the only way to do things within the current rules. 20 years from now the RO could be a traditonal staple like the HB dive..

We disagree, but I respect your opinion on the game in any case.

When did I say anything about Cutler or Ortons mobility? Never brought it up. I implied Orton wasn't as good of a qb as Cutler, and his game may have contributed to Clady giving up more sacks that he did in 2008. A lot of reasons you could point to that are not scheme related which make the original argument weak.

[PeterMP]

Those stats boil down to Griffin running "up the middle" once per game. Keeping in mind that we don't really know what "up the middle" means it's tough to really feel like we're putting him in "the briar patch" too much.

 

To elaborate, when I multiplied the number of times we ran the RO per game x the % the QB kept the ball x the % he ran up the middle with it, it came out as:

 

Griffin 1.20

Wilson 0.35

Kaepernick 0.20

 

So, about once per game our QB took it up the middle. Wilson did it once every third game and Kaepernick once every fifth game. Yes, that's a difference, but I don't know if 16-17 carries vs. 5-6 carries over the course of 16 games is a material difference.

 

Mostly, that depends on other variables that I don't know (is a run up the middle more likely to get a person a hurt), and how it is connected to other things (is it part of a larger orginational theme where the Sea Hawks are harping on Wilson to stay near the side line and then calling plays that call for him to go into the middle less symptomatic of that and the Redskins much less so).

 

Or is it meaningless and mostly based on who they played in the games the stats are based on some other factor.

 

I didn't really go into it with a bias one way or another, but first, I saw the quote by the Sea Hawks coach, and then the stats, and it least makes an interesting narrative.