How Kyle's Future and the Skins' Read-Option Future Are Linked

[Oldfan]

Some 2012 stats recently published in the Washington Post:

 

Griffin was hit 152 times; 

 

He was hit 49 times out of 70 plays (70%) designed to use his ability to run either zone-read options or quarterback keepers. 

 

Compare that to 18 hits on 50 scrambles (36%) beyond the line of scrimmage on passing plays; 

 

Compare it also to 85 hits on 423 plays (20%) when in the pocket or behind the line of scrimmage.

 

Pass plays and scrambles both should have a higher gain per-play than the designed runs. These numbers indicate that the Read-Option and QB Keepers hold significantly more risk to Griffin PER-PLAY than other types of plays.

 

Counter One: The sample size is too small, so the stats are unreliable.

 

It would be better to have a 1,500 hit sample, but we can't wait ten years to make this decision. The 152 hit sample is big enough that it can't reasonably be ignored.

 

Counter Two: Griffin wasn't injured on the read-option.

 

That single event can be dismissed as likely to be the product of Chance.

 

Counter Three: All hits don't indicate the same risk. The Shannies are experts. They have told us that Robert will take less punishment on each hit in the read-option than on other plays.

 

Mike and Kyle are experts, but they aren't impartial experts. Their claims are counter-intuitive and, as such, they would need some statistical evidence to back them up. Because of the many subjective variables involved, it's highly unlikely they will ever be able to produce that evidence. 

 

Even if their unsupported claim is true, they won't persuade impartial minds in the Court of Public Opinion that they aren't simply rationalizing what they decided to do regardless of the risk.

 

Counter Four: Maybe Mike and Kyle don't care about the Court of Public Opinion.

 

Mike Shanahan cares very much about his reputation. That's why he has seized media opportunities to publish his preferred stats to tell us how well his offense did last year. I think he badly needs and wants a Super Bowl win without Elway to make a bid for consideration for the HOF.

 

But, it's Kyle's future that will likely decide how much risk will be taken with Robert's health. Kyle doesn't need a Super Bowl win to compete for a head coaching job soon. All he needs is to keep the offense humming and to use the media to separate himself from his father's weaknesses as a job candidate (annual defensive problems and wanting full control). RG3 can help him do that without using him on read-options or keepers.

 

The one thing that could destroy Kyle's future is to become seen as partly responsible  for another Griffin knee injury that happens on a RO or on a keeper. If it happened on another kind of play, Kyle's future would be unaffected.

 

Mike's a high roller. He might go "all in" with Griffin as a runner if it was only his future involved. But, it seems unlikely that Mike Shanahan, the father, would concur in that decision.

 

[Mahons21]

Another great OP from OF, why am I not surprised.

Well done sir.

I was fully aboard the r/o train, and while I still don't want to scrap it, you make some valid points in your argument that no doubt make me more worrisome than I had been before.

I do think you go a little over the top with this Mike is an egomaniac argument, which you've made before, but I applaud the rest.

[BobGriffin]

My counter would be without the read option Griffin would get hit more frequently in the pocket due to an increased pass rush (no fear of RO allows DEs to rush harder). Those hits are often times worse. When running the RO  correctly and keeping it, RG3 has every opportunity to get to the ground or out of bounds. The only designed runs that got shots that were hard were when we ran the triple option and when we ran draws, but we pretty much didn't call those anymore towards the end of the season.

[Oldfan]

Another great OP from OF, why am I not surprised.

Well done sir.

I was fully aboard the r/o train, and while I still don't want to scrap it, you make some valid points in your argument that no doubt make me more worrisome than I had been before.

I do think you go a little over the top with this Mike is an egomaniac argument, which you've made before, but I applaud the rest.

 

Thank you.

 

As for Mike's ego, I think I understand the man well, because, like him, I've had to do battle with the Ego just as he has. I see his progress, but I see when he still falls short too. I'm not judging him harshly. I'm explaining him.

[Oldfan]

My counter would be without the read option Griffin would get hit more frequently in the pocket due to an increased pass rush (no fear of RO allows DEs to rush harder). Those hits are often times worse. When running the RO  correctly and keeping it, RG3 has every opportunity to get to the ground or out of bounds. The only designed runs that got shots that were hard were when we ran the triple option and when we ran draws, but we pretty much didn't call those anymore towards the end of the season.

 

The read-option isn't the best way to slow down a rush. There are several ways to use Griffin's mobility to cut down on sacks and hits in the passing fame. Jay Cutler was sacked only 11 times, an NFL low, in 2008 and his O-line was no better than this one.

 

Claims that hits are harder on other types of plays need to be supported somehow.

[illone]

Those numbers are more griffins fault than kyle's.

Once he learns to slide and get out of bounds safely it wil bring those numbers down considerably. The read option is here to stay.

[PlayAction]

Oldfan "The one thing that could destroy Kyle's future is to become seen as partly responsible  for another Griffin knee injury that happens on a RO or on a keeper. If it happened on another kind of play, Kyle's future would be unaffected."

 

It might destroy Kyle's future with Dan Snyder but I don't think it will have any, or much of any, influence on other teams. JMHO.

[Oldfan]

Those numbers are more griffins fault than kyle's.

Once he learns to slide and get out of bounds safely it wil bring those numbers down considerably. The read option is here to stay.

 

It's easier to slide and to get out of bound on scrambles than it is on read-options -- which explains why he took twice as many hits per-play on the latter. 

PlayAction: It might destroy Kyle's future with Dan Snyder but I don't think it will have any, or much of any, influence on other teams.

 

Seem like other teams would be concerned with the quality of his decision-making. What am I missing?

[Hitman21ST]

It's easier to slide and to get out of bound on scrambles than it is on read-options -- which explains why he took twice as many hits per-play on the latter. 

 

How do you figure? On the read option, Griffin has a better view of the defense and in general is exposed to smaller players (DBs vs LBs and DL). On scrambles, he has to work his way through everyone, and there is a greater chance of a blindside hit.

[Oldfan]

Hitman: How do you figure? On the read option, Griffin has a better view of the defense and in general is exposed to smaller players (DBs vs LBs and DL). On scrambles, he has to work his way through everyone, and there is a greater chance of a blindside hit.

 

On scrambles, the rush defenders are typically behind the QB and other defenders have dropped in coverage. There's more open field.

 

If you don't accept that, then how would you explain why Griffin was hit 70% of the time on plays designed to use his running ability and just 36% of the time on scrambles?

[illone]

Griffin will be a better player this year, dont you think?

Why would it be the playcallers fault that the ball carrier doesnt protect himself? Guys like Kaepernick and Wilson know how to do this quite well and griffin is a superior athlete to both of them. If griffin wants to avoid contact he certainly can.

Kyle's future is not tied to the health of rg3 unless its found out that kyle specifically told him to try to run someone over.

[Oldfan]

Griffin will be a better player this year, dont you think?

Why would it be the playcallers fault that the ball carrier doesnt protect himself? Guys like Kaepernick and Wilson know how to do this quite well and griffin is a superior athlete to both of them. If griffin wants to avoid contact he certainly can.

Kyle's future is not tied to the health of rg3 unless its found out that kyle specifically told him to try to run someone over.

 

Griffin needs to do a better job of protecting himself than he did in 2012 and the Shanahans need to do a better job of using him in the offense. That shared responsibility seems to be the most recent theme coming from RG3 and the Shanahans.At the end of last season, it seemed to me that the Shanahans were not accepting responsibility at all. But, I didn't read all their comments. I could easily have missed something.

[TheItalianStallion]

Does "red option" include option pitches like those we ran vs Cincy? What are the breakdown of hits on those?

 

Do you have the stats for hits he took after the bye vs before? Seemed like he was taking less hits during the 7-0 streak.

[Oldfan]

Does "red option" include option pitches like those we ran vs Cincy? What are the breakdown of hits on those?

 

Do you have the stats for hits he took after the bye vs before? Seemed like he was taking less hits during the 7-0 streak.

Sorry, can't help you with more of a breakdown.

[HeluCopter29]

Does "red option" include option pitches like those we ran vs Cincy? What are the breakdown of hits on those?

 

Do you have the stats for hits he took after the bye vs before? Seemed like he was taking less hits during the 7-0 streak.

 

We also ran a lot of the "triple option" that seemed to get him hit a lot.  After week 4 he seamed fine to me.

 

I would also point out that not all hits are created equal.  It seamed like while he might have gotten hit more on the read option the true monster shots were coming when he was scrambling.  Ultimately those monster shots are what's gonna do him in.

[KCClybun]

The zone-read/read-option isn't the best way to slow the pass rush, huh...

 

...Let's see what Kyle Shanahan, the actual coordinator with actual years of NFL experience and not just pre-conceived notions older than Methusula has to say.

 

The zone read is something that I learned going through the year that I think really helped us. It’s the least pass rush I’ve ever seen as a coordinator — guys just sitting there scared to death, just watching everybody, not moving. I really enjoyed sometimes, actually, being able to drop back and not have four guys just teeing off on the quarterback, all trying to hit him in the pocket.

 

“I go crazy thinking about blitzes every week, how we’re going to pick all this stuff up. About halfway through the year, I’m starting to realize we’re not getting any of these blitzes I used to see. It takes a lot of stuff you used to worry about, you don’t get. The threat of a quarterback running makes defenses play sound. It makes them play 11 on 11 as opposed to 11 on 10 like they’d been doing my whole career that I’ve seen. And so just the threat of a quarterback who can run, especially in the running game with the zone read and everything, whether that’s working or not, just the threat of it opens up everything else.

 

 

As for the way the Broncos called plays for Jay Cutler in 2008, I think you'll find (if you actually go and find games and watch them instead of relying on faulty memory) that they didn't actually boot him or roll him out that much. In Denver, Jay spent a lot of his time in a spread, shotgun attack that featured a lot of quick passing, almost like a Tom Brady style of offense. Jay moved the pocket, but he usually did himself.

 

For all intents and purposes, Cutler wasn't running the typical Shanahan offense in '08. He did in '06 and '07 when Mike was still calling plays, and then Bates became the play caller and the offense shifted to one that was a lot more shotgun heavy and a lot less reliant on play action bootlegs, waggles and rollouts.

 

And as for whether or not Kyle Shanahan's future depends on whether he keeps running the read-option or not or Griffin getting hurt again, it's worth saying again that Bruce Arians has gotten his quarterback sacked, on average, 45+ times a season every time he's been a coordinator. Arians couldn't keep Tim Couch, Kelly Holcomb, or Ben Roethlisberger healthy for 16 games most of the time they were there. He got a rookie quarterback sacked 41 times.

 

 

And he STILL got a head coaching job, and a league wide reputation as a quarterback whisperer.

 

Kyle will be fine. 

[Hitman21ST]

 

On scrambles, the rush defenders are typically behind the QB and other defenders have dropped in coverage. There's more open field.

 

If you don't accept that, then how would you explain why Griffin was hit 70% of the time on plays designed to use his running ability and just 36% of the time on scrambles?

 

Fair enough, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is easier to slide or get out of bounds. It's easy to slide no matter the play call.

 

One explanation could be on plays that are designed for him to use his running ability, he subconsciously wants to fight for more yards. He had stated that he needed to get out of bounds or slide sooner during the season. Which means that he was able to, but he chose to stay in and try to get more yards. What it doesn't mean is that it was harder to get out of bounds.

 

While on scrambles, he's already in "alert" mode (ie play breaks down, just get something) and when a defender shows up he gets out of bounds.

 

But to say that it's "easier" to slide or get out of bounds on a scramble isn't true.

[skinfan2k]

Clearly OF hasn't watched any football.  the read-option forces the line to watch the football and where it goes.  In a traditional pro set, you don't need to watch the ball and you can attack upfield. 

 

Here's a video from Brian billick that explains the strength of the read-option

 

[O.S.F]

Do you have the stats for hits he took after the bye vs before? Seemed like he was taking less hits during the 7-0 streak.

He got better in the 2nd half of the season, according to (another great breakdown) John Kiem in this article http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/robert-griffin-iii-took-152-hits-in-2012-heres-how-that-number-can-be-reduced/2013/07/27/fdb66a3a-f577-11e2-a2f1-a7acf9bd5d3a_story.html

[Hogs Ahead]

Wonder what it would look like if added Kaep and Wilson's stats in. Certainly would be a better sample size and reduce variation from outside influences.

[Oldfan]

NLC: The zone-read/read-option isn't the best way to slow the pass rush, huh...

 

...Let's see what Kyle Shanahan, the actual coordinator with actual years of NFL experience and not just pre-conceived notions older than Methusula has to say.

 

If you don't give a damn about how often your QB gets hit (70% hit rate), Kyle's right, the read-option is a good way to slow down the rush. But, if you do care, then it sucks.

 

Besides, how do you explain the 33 sacks allowed last year? Shanahan didn't need the read-option in 2008 to register an NFL leading 11 sacks allowed in 2008.

 

You quoted Kyle and hyped his experience then omitted this one, in the same article, from someone with many more years NFL experience than Kyle:

 

Not everyone associated with the Redskins is buying into the Shanahans' theory. Team radio analyst and former 'Skins quarterback Sonny Jurgensen has a simple message for Griffin: "Quit running."

 

“As a quarterback, you make your living throwing the football," Jurgensen said during an interview with the Washington Post. "If you make your living running the football, you're gonna play 10 games a year. Quit running. Run when necessary; get out of bounds."

 

As for the way the Broncos called plays for Jay Cutler in 2008, I think you'll find (if you actually go and find games and watch them instead of relying on faulty memory) that they didn't actually boot him or roll him out that much.

 

Cutler was in the shotgun a lot and he was on the move a lot with both planned and ad lib rolls.His mobility was key. My point stands. You don't need the read-option to help protect your QB. The 11 sacks, first in the NFL in 2008, proves it. In 2012, with the read-option slowing the rush, the Skins allowed 33. That was12th in the NFL, and three times as many as Shanahan's 2008 Broncos.

 

...Bates became the play caller and the offense shifted to one that was a lot more shotgun heavy and a lot less reliant on play action bootlegs, waggles and rollouts.

 

So, you're saying it was the Bates' magic with the shotgun that used a lightweight ZBS line to allow only 11 sacks for the season. He didn't need the read-option, he didn't use Jay's mobility. Damn, we need Bates here now! That man is a Football genius!  
 

Wonder what it would look like if added Kaep and Wilson's stats in. Certainly would be a better sample size and reduce variation from outside influences.

 

Agreed. A bigger sample would be great.

skinfn 2K: Clearly OF hasn't watched any football.  the read-option forces the line to watch the football and where it goes.  In a traditional pro set, you don't need to watch the ball and you can attack upfield. 

 

 As near as I can tell, you are trying to support NLC's point about the zone-read's influence on the pass rush and I have already dealt with that. It's an unnecessary risk.

[KCClybun]

I get that your gimmick is to pick a stat you like to formulate an argument and stick to it, but do you treat 08 like its a perfect illustration of your point while ignoring the 27 sacks given up by the Broncos in '07 and the 30 given up by them in '06.

And I still don't think you get how the ZBS works, but what else is new...

[Oldfan]

NLC: I get that your gimmick is to pick a stat you like to formulate an argument and stick to it, but do you treat 08 like its a perfect illustration of your point while ignoring the 27 sacks given up by the Broncos in '07 and the 30 given up by them in '06.

 

I treat the 2008 Broncos as a perfect illustration of my point because they're a perfect illustration of my point. How many perfect illustrations does one need?

 

And I still don't think you get how the ZBS works...

 

If you have questions, please ask. I'm here to help.

[KDawg]

A few things:

1) one of the reasons I'd want my backside edge defender attacking the mesh point at the quarterbacks midline, besides that it forces the QB to make an even faster decision, is that I can still generate a pass rush off the backside on the play action stuff. Having that guy sit and read would be silly, and from the comments that NLC posted by Kyle Shanahan, it seems a lot of teams took the "fundamental" defense approach and failed.

2) Hitman,

Saying Griff isn't exposed to DL/LB on read option is a bit off base, at least in my opinion. Scrape exchanges and athletic players keep those positions in play. I also think you discount the ability of DBs, specifically safeties, to come downhill quickly. Even of the read is correctly made, it doesn't necessarily protect The QB from those other players.

[Redskins Diehard]

Some 2012 stats recently published in the Washington Post:

 

Griffin was hit 152 times; 

 

He was hit 49 times out of 70 plays (70%) designed to use his ability to run either zone-read options or quarterback keepers. 

 

Compare that to 18 hits on 50 scrambles (36%) beyond the line of scrimmage on passing plays; 

 

Compare it also to 85 hits on 423 plays (20%) when in the pocket or behind the line of scrimmage.

 

Pass plays and scrambles both should have a higher gain per-play than the designed runs. These numbers indicate that the Read-Option and QB Keepers hold significantly more risk to Griffin PER-PLAY than other types of plays.

 

Counter One: The sample size is too small, so the stats are unreliable.

 

It would be better to have a 1,500 hit sample, but we can't wait ten years to make this decision. The 152 hit sample is big enough that it can't reasonably be ignored.

The fact that you can't wait long enough to get a reasonable sample size does not make the sample size you have more relevant. Either 152 stands on its own...or it doesn't.  

Counter Two: Griffin wasn't injured on the read-option.

 

That single event can be dismissed as likely to be the product of Chance.

Can it? Because you said so? The problem with that statement is that it isn't even a single event. Both of his injuries...100% of them...took place on scrambles. It would be nice to have 20 injuries to study but we don't have time to wait for that so we need to make a definitive assertion based on the sample size we have.

The "college style" option we ran early in the season should never be run again. However, a hobbled Griffin near the end of the season was able to run the read option and take a straight line to the first down stick. If he can run that play and take what is there and either get out of bounds or slide then I have no problem with it. If he is going to try and get 9 yards with a hit instead of 7 without then we need to retire it.