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CSN - Over or under for the 2013 Redskins


Larry

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Really would have liked to comment in the Breaking News section, but I guess this is where it should go.  

CSN - Over or under for the 2013 Redskins

 

The author basibally pulls out 4-5 "lines" for the Skins, next year (out of his Philly, near as I can tell), then gives his opinion on why he thinks the Skins will be over or under the line which he, himself, picked. 

 

I don't have any problem with any of his reasoning.  (Although I'm really crossing my fingers on his prediction that RG3 will play more than 13.5 games.  I HOPE he's right.) 

 

He picks Morris to be under 1500 yards.  His reasoning is that Morris won't be worse than last year's 1650, but he predicts that RG3 will be throwing more, and that the Skins will be utilizing a backup (who hasn't been chosen, yet), and therefore predicts that Morris will have fewer carries. 

 

Thought people might like to agree/disagree with his predictions.

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"Under: It is safe to say that his 120 rushing attempts for 815 yards will stand as Griffin’s career highs until he retires sometime around 2030. If he rushes for 500 yards that’s about 31 yards per game and that seems about right. That’s enough to keep the defense off balance, especially if he pops a 40-yarder every few weeks."

Am I the only one who read "until he retires in 2030" and started chanting RGIII RGIII imagining him behind center for the next 17 seasons!

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I'll buy that. As Kyle continues evolve and build upon thr offense we can expect greater variation. To AlMo's biggest credit was his ability to stay healthy. I gotta believe had Helu been healthy the training camp battle could have went very differently. Even if he had still won the battle. Helu would've gotten on the field for 3rd and longs. And we would've seen more swing passes out of the backfield along w/ screen plays. That's being said w/out bringing in a change of pace back.

As far as RGIII's yardage I hope he doesn't have to top this mark. I'd like to see him hit the 4,200-4,500 yd passing mark w/ 25-30 tds. Keeping his picks under 7. A healthy Davis and Garcon plus some minor contributions from these rookies will boost the O even more.

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I don't disagree with any of them, but that doesn't mean I don't think he'll be wrong.

 

I think Morris could break 1500 yards again this year, even with Griffin passing more and the backup back taking carries. My reasoning: Morris now has a full year under his belt in our system - he said he had never really run something like that until he came to the Skins. His vision can only get better and he can work on making people miss and getting more yards per carry. With the second back presumably seeing the field more, that keeps Morris fresher with more burst. Also, with Griffin becoming a better passer, that means defenses have to respect that and back off, opening more lanes and more room for Morris. Finally, our defense is going to be better (they can't be worse than last year), thus getting the ball back to our offense a little faster. More possessions mean more carries.

 

If Fred can stay healthy, I think 55 catches is an easy goal. Like Tandler said, he had 59 through 12 two years ago. More throwing means more catches for everyone. If he can make it to 59 with Grossman and Beck in 12, he should be close to 80 on the season from Griffin.

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As much as I would like to see the offense duplicate their success, I'm far more interested in what the defense does to respond to their hideous effort in regular season 2012. If they can even rank somewhere in the middle, that would take a lot of pressure off of our burgeoning young offense.

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I'll buy that. As Kyle continues evolve and build upon thr offense we can expect greater variation. To AlMo's biggest credit was his ability to stay healthy. I gotta believe had Helu been healthy the training camp battle could have went very differently. Even if he had still won the battle. Helu would've gotten on the field for 3rd and longs. And we would've seen more swing passes out of the backfield along w/ screen plays. That's being said w/out bringing in a change of pace back.

As far as RGIII's yardage I hope he doesn't have to top this mark. I'd like to see him hit the 4,200-4,500 yd passing mark w/ 25-30 tds. Keeping his picks under 7. A healthy Davis and Garcon plus some minor contributions from these rookies will boost the O even more.

I think Kyle orginally planned to use Helu as the I back in certain pistol forms and likely a guy who could work the slot.  When he went down (and was never healthy to begin with), Kyle used the WR to play this role (at first Banks then Moss and Morgan later).  Davis getting injured and Garcon's nagging foot also saw our offense move in a direction different than what Kyle had hope.  I don't think the 2012 offense was what Kyle envisioned last September.  If those guys stay healthy (or someone else steps up), we still may mostly only see what Kyle envisioned last year.

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I think Kyle orginally planned to use Helu as the I back in certain pistol forms and likely a guy who could work the slot.  When he went down (and was never healthy to begin with), Kyle used the WR to play this role (at first Banks then Moss and Morgan later).  Davis getting injured and Garcon's nagging foot also saw our offense move in a direction different than what Kyle had hope.  I don't think the 2012 offense was what Kyle envisioned last September.  If those guys stay healthy (or someone else steps up), we still may mostly only see what Kyle envisioned last year.

 

With a healthy Helu, our third down percentage should be one of the best in the league.

 

Helu, Davis, Reed, Garcon, Morgan/Moss/Hankerson/Robinson/Paulsen

 

We can start out in an Ace formation, then completely change the look to 5 wide, having everyone as a threat. Or we could do the reverse. That's not even counting runs with Griffin.

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