Yahoo/AP: Tough ID laws could block thousands of 2012 votes

[ABQCOWBOY]

It's in the thread.   Multiple times.   Estimates range from 7-12 percent of all eligible voters.   Studies were done by the US Department of Elections, various universities and so on.  

 

This is what I mean by Ferrous Cranus.  You have your own "facts," and you are not swayed from them, and if someone points out that they are wrong, 15 minutes later you are saying the exact same thing as if no one had ever considered the question.   It's very frustrating.

 

Umm, what?

 

http://www.propublica.org/article/everything-youve-ever-wanted-to-know-about-voter-id-laws

 

So hear is a link that would seem to suggest that data on exactly how many people might or might not have valid ID varies greatly.   It does not seem as if there are is a lot of hard data on this at all. 

 

This is why I'm asking.  You may want to describe me as "Ferrous Cranus" but I think that's a bit too self serving and convenient.  

[Larry]

Why do Democrat pundits and politicos have such a hard time with this debate?

 

Why cant they "win" it?

 

Oh "I'm preventing voter fraud" is certainly a good sales pitch. 

 

It's like "I support our troops".  Anybody who argues against (whatever you're pushing) is . . . . ?

 

----------

 

And, a big part of it is the "Well, I simply cannot agree that there are people who don;t have their driver's license in their wallet.  I have to show mine every time I use my credit card (because I wrote "See ID" on my credit card, right next to the words "Not Valid Unless Signed") 

 

And the "It wasn't hard for me to renew my license.  I just got my birth certificate and passport out of the safe deposit box, and showed them." 

[Duckus]

Why do Democrat pundits and politicos have such a hard time with this debate?

 

Why cant they "win" it?

 

The messaging is insanely hard.

 

The argument for Voter ID seems extremely reasonable. Every single person I know has an ID. If I needed to get an ID, I would get one today. It is simple!

If you ask most American's what percentage of people don't have an ID - my guess is you would get answers like 1-2%. 

 

It is hard for most American's to actually understand the level of poverty some people face. It is the same reason reason food stamps and welfare is a boogie man - it is hard for most American's to actually understand the level of poverty some people face daily. 

[Predicto]

Why do Democrat pundits and politicos have such a hard time with this debate?

 

Why cant they "win" it?

 

Because, as noted in this thread, the overwhelming majority of people do not live a life without government issued photo IDs, and can't imagine doing so, and they assume that everyone else lives the same sort of life they do, and if they don't its just because they don't care.  "THEN GO GET ONE."  

 

We don't have such a thing as a federal government ID automatically issued to everyone, they way they do in many other countries.  We probably should, but we don't.  You have an ID if you drive a car, which many millions of people never do.    

 

Meanwhile, of course, everyone is against "voter fraud" (even if it doesn't ever actually happen this way).  Who could oppose showing ID to vote?  It's just common sense, isn't it?  

 

This is a perfect example of the worst of American "common sense."  Our gut feeling about they way things ought to be in order to prevent a non-existent problem is more important than actually disenfranchising millions of voters who are different than us.

[Larry]

Who are the Millions you refer to? I'm simply asking, where are these numbers coming from?

Well, here's a post from Predicto, from way back on Halloween:

Depends on what you consider provable.  

 

As discussed above, the Brennan Center at NYU did a huge study on voter fraud of this sort, by individuals sneaking in to vote, and essentially found that it doesn't happen.  

 

 http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/The%20Truth%20About%20Voter%20Fraud.pdf

 

Studies indicated that nearly 11 percent of all eligible voters don't have photo IDs, mostly the poor, elderly, young and minorities. 

 

http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/d/download_file_39242.pdf

 

 

Meanwhile, North Carolina's Secretary of State did a study and found that 138,425 people participated in the 2012 election who did not have a photo ID, in that one state alone.   None of those people would be permitted to vote under a strict voter ID law.   that's over 100,000 disenfranchised people in one medium sized state that has never had a single documented case of "fake voter walking into the polling place" voter fraud.  

 

http://www.democracy-nc.org/downloads/SBOE-DMVMatchMemoApril2013.pdf

 

 

That isn't going to be sufficient proof for deejaydana, of course.

[ABQCOWBOY]

Well, here's a post from Predicto, from way back on Halloween:

 

 

Well, here's a post from Predicto, from way back on Halloween:

 

 

 

I read this.  In fact, I posted a link with all of this info and more just a few minutes ago.  

 

From the article:

 

State figures also can be hard to nail down. In Pennsylvania, nearly 760,000 registered voters, or 9.2 percent of the state's 8.2 million voter base, don't own state-issued ID cards, according to an analysis of state records by the Philadelphia Inquirer. State officials, on the other hand, place this number at between 80,000 and 90,000.

 

So what's the truth?  

[Kilmer17]

I guess this issue get to the core debate of our times- How much power does an elected official have?  IE- If we elect people, and support them by reelecting them, that support and initiate election reforms including voter ID laws.  And if polling shows people supporting the laws.  Then what should we do?

 

My suggestion is still that we make it easier, both monetarily and bureaucratically, to obtain one.

[twa]

 

 

It is hard for most American's to actually understand the level of poverty some people face. It is the same reason reason food stamps and welfare is a boogie man - it is hard for most American's to actually understand the level of poverty some people face daily. 

 

 

both of which require ID, as does housing assistance

 

why are Dems wanting people to starve and be homeless?

[ABQCOWBOY]

I guess this issue get to the core debate of our times- How much power does an elected official have?  IE- If we elect people, and support them by reelecting them, that support and initiate election reforms including voter ID laws.  And if polling shows people supporting the laws.  Then what should we do?

 

My suggestion is still that we make it easier, both monetarily and bureaucratically, to obtain one.

 

IMO, it would make a lot of sense for the Left to support something like this.   It would then give a position that could provide cover for the immigration - Closed Boarders fight that is sure to come.  

 

To me, it's a no brainer but then again, I'm characterized as "Ferrous Cranus."

[Predicto]

http://www.propublica.org/article/everything-youve-ever-wanted-to-know-about-voter-id-laws

 

So hear is a link that would seem to suggest that data on exactly how many people might or might not have valid ID varies greatly.   It does not seem as if there are is a lot of hard data on this at all. 

 

This is why I'm asking.  You may want to describe me as "Ferrous Cranus" but I think that's a bit too self serving and convenient.  

 

We get tired of repeating ourselves, and doing the work to repeatedly prove that the sky is blue, just to have the same question asked again ten times in the same thread.

 

Go back to post 721 in this thread.  Start there.  Look at the NYU study, and took at the North Carolina state government report.  

 

Then look up the 2005 bipartisan Federal Elections Commission Report, which found that millions of eligible voters lack photo ID.

 

them maybe read this, and try to understand why millions of people don't have those IDs even though you can't imagine being without one

 

http://www.npr.org/2012/01/28/146006217/why-new-photo-id-laws-mean-some-wont-vote

 

 

Look, I can understand if you want to argue about what is fair or necessary in a law, but no study anywhere questions the simple fact that millions of Americans who are eligible to vote do not have IDs.   They may squabble over whether it is 7 percent or 12 percent or something, but even 2 percent is several million people.   

I guess this issue get to the core debate of our times- How much power does an elected official have?  IE- If we elect people, and support them by reelecting them, that support and initiate election reforms including voter ID laws.  And if polling shows people supporting the laws.  Then what should we do?

 

My suggestion is still that we make it easier, both monetarily and bureaucratically, to obtain one.

 

 

I agree with that, and once we have done that, we can start to demand those IDs at the polls.

 

Doing it in reverse, i.e., demanding the non-existent IDs now (and probably never getting around to the other part) - that's what is actually happening.

[ABQCOWBOY]

We get tired of repeating ourselves, and doing the work to repeatedly prove that the sky is blue, just to have the same question asked again ten times in the same thread.

 

Go back to post 721 in this thread.  Start there.  Look at the NYU study, and took at the North Carolina state government report.  

 

Then look up the 2005 bipartisan Federal Elections Commission Report, which found that millions of eligible voters lack photo ID.

 

them maybe read this, and try to understand why millions of people don't have those IDs even though you can't imagine being without one

 

http://www.npr.org/2012/01/28/146006217/why-new-photo-id-laws-mean-some-wont-vote

 

 

Look, I can understand if you want to argue about what is fair or necessary in a law, but no study anywhere questions the simple fact that millions of Americans who are eligible to vote do not have IDs.   They may squabble over whether it is 7 percent or 12 percent or something, but even 2 percent is several million people.   

 

We do to. 

 

None of this is a reason for why eligible voters SHOULD NOT have a valid picture ID.   I've already said that I thought measures should be taken to insure people who do not have the capacity to obtain a Valid ID be helped.   Nobody seems to even want to entertain that concept. 

[The Evil Genius]

IMO, it would make a lot of sense for the Left to support something like this.   It would then give a position that could provide cover for the immigration - Closed Boarders fight that is sure to come.  

 

To me, it's a no brainer but then again, I'm characterized as "Ferrous Cranus."

 

Why would it be the responsibility of the left to get behind a national ID program when it's primarily a conservative driven belief (right now) that everyone should have one to vote? Shouldn't the conservatives be the one to lead the national ID program if they want to also make it a requirement to vote?

 

Or is that belief really rooted in the notion that they (conservatives) can disenfranchise a certain segment of voters (as some have alluded to)? Hard to tell.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I read this.  In fact, I posted a link with all of this info and more just a few minutes ago.  

 

From the article:

 

State figures also can be hard to nail down. In Pennsylvania, nearly 760,000 registered voters, or 9.2 percent of the state's 8.2 million voter base, don't own state-issued ID cards, according to an analysis of state records by the Philadelphia Inquirer. State officials, on the other hand, place this number at between 80,000 and 90,000.

 

So what's the truth?  

 

So it is somewhere between 100,000 and a million in one state.

 

What's that mean nationally? 5 million? 10 million?

 

It's a lot of goddamn people. That's the point.

[ABQCOWBOY]

I agree with that, and once we have done that, we can start to demand those IDs at the polls.

 

Doing it in reverse, i.e., demanding the non-existent IDs now (and probably never getting around to the other part) - that's what is actually happening.

 

Do you agree that only US Citizens should be allowed to vote?

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

We do to. 

 

None of this is a reason for why eligible voters SHOULD NOT have a valid picture ID.   I've already said that I thought measures should be taken to insure people who do not have the capacity to obtain a Valid ID be helped.   Nobody seems to even want to entertain that concept. 

 

I'm not opposed to a federal ID program. Institute that. Provide the funding. Make sure everyone has one and then come back to me on the voting ID law.

 

I can't wait until the Christian conservatives start talking about Revelation and the Mark of the Beast when you start this program.

[Larry]

From the article:

 

State figures also can be hard to nail down. In Pennsylvania, nearly 760,000 registered voters, or 9.2 percent of the state's 8.2 million voter base, don't own state-issued ID cards, according to an analysis of state records by the Philadelphia Inquirer. State officials, on the other hand, place this number at between 80,000 and 90,000.

 

So what's the truth?

What difference does it make, to a person who's claiming that it's zero? 

 

I just read your link, and it does make a point that I've speculated about, for a while. 

 

The Brennan analysis cited 11% of eligible voters.  People who supposedly were entitled to vote.  But not necessarily people who would vote.  A lot of the demographics cited by Brennan, elderly, students, poverty, are also demographics where lots of people simply don't vote, anyway. 

 

It's hard to come up with a good number as to how many of those people who don't have the ID would have voted. 

 

But that, also, gets to a point I was going to make, after you admitted that requiring people to jump through a hoop makes things more difficult. 

 

This is America.  Where it doesn't take much at all for people to just decide to eff it, and stay home. 

 

If the forecast says there's a chance of rain, a noticeable fraction of voters will stay home. 

 

Frankly, even a trivial increase in difficulty voting, will likely cause millions of Americans to just not bother. 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Why would it be the responsibility of the left to get behind a national ID program when it's primarily a conservative driven belief (right now) that everyone should have one to vote? Shouldn't the conservatives be the one to lead the national ID program if they want to also make it a requirement to vote?

 

Or is that belief really rooted in the notion that they (conservatives) can disenfranchise a certain segment of voters (as some have alluded to)? Hard to tell.

 

I explained that earlier.  If you get behind this, that provides a defensible position for Democrats on Board Issues.   This fight is coming.  If you get behind ID's, that a better option, IMO.

[Predicto]

I read this.  In fact, I posted a link with all of this info and more just a few minutes ago.  

 

From the article:

 

State figures also can be hard to nail down. In Pennsylvania, nearly 760,000 registered voters, or 9.2 percent of the state's 8.2 million voter base, don't own state-issued ID cards, according to an analysis of state records by the Philadelphia Inquirer. State officials, on the other hand, place this number at between 80,000 and 90,000.

 

So what's the truth?  

 

 

So it is somewhere between 760,000 and 80,000 voters in Pennsylvania.  Even if it is only 80,000 in Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania is has approximately 12 million residents, or about 1 in 25 of 315 million US population.  So multiply 80,000 by 25 to extrapolate to the entire USA, and you get  2 million eligible voters who don't have IDs   That is a very low estimate, but it is still 2 million voters.  Can we move on now? 

 

 

also from your article:

 

"There are "very few documented cases," said UC-Irvine professor and election law specialist Rick Hasen. "When you do see election fraud, it invariably involves election officials taking steps to change election results or it involves absentee ballots which voter ID laws can't prevent," he said.

An analysis by News21, a national investigative reporting project, identified 10 voter impersonation cases out of 2,068 alleged election fraud cases since 2000 – or one out of every 15 million prospective voters."  

 

So why is this a real problem again?  A problem that requires disenfranchising AT LEAST 2 million voters (and maybe many times more than that) vs 10 actual documented cases of voter impersonation? 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I explained that earlier.  If you get behind this, that provides a defensible position for Democrats on Board Issues.   This fight is coming.  If you get behind ID's, that a better option, IMO.

 

Pardon me. But I think you are on the Spectrum so I'm not going to take your advice on the proper way to go about building consensus on political positions that I support.

[ABQCOWBOY]

I'm not opposed to a federal ID program. Institute that. Provide the funding. Make sure everyone has one and then come back to me on the voting ID law.

 

I can't wait until the Christian conservatives start talking about Revelation and the Mark of the Beast when you start this program.

 

Because that's how you intend to get legislation done?   Larry, you know what's coming in this next election.   Doesn't it make more sense to work to get this done, as opposed to the bigger, much more sensitive issue of Board Closer and all the rest?

[Larry]

Do you agree that only US Citizens should be allowed to vote?

 

Look!  The merry go round's coming around again! 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Pardon me. But I think you are on the Spectrum so I'm not going to take your advice on the proper way to go about building consensus on political positions that I support.

 

 

Well, I suppose you can continue to do business the same way but I don't think it will work. 

[Predicto]

We do to. 

 

None of this is a reason for why eligible voters SHOULD NOT have a valid picture ID.   I've already said that I thought measures should be taken to insure people who do not have the capacity to obtain a Valid ID be helped.   Nobody seems to even want to entertain that concept. 

 

 

I'll entertain that concept.  Once it is done and all the federal IDs have been issues, come back to me with the voter ID laws and I will happily jump aboard.  

 

But that's not what this thread is about.  

[ABQCOWBOY]

Look!  The merry go round's coming around again! 

 

But no answer.  Is it about insuring old, poor, young and whomever else can vote who are legally allowed to vote or is it not?

[The Evil Genius]

To be fair, if the the 5-20 telephone calls a week and the thousands of pounds of junk mail over the period of 3 months haven't turned off a lot of voters yet, who really knows what effect future deterrents like mandatory ID will have.

 

The masters have won.