Arm Strength, Accuracy, Mechanics, |Hand Size, and the Modern (post 2003) Passing Game

[Riggo-toni]

I'm admittedly a couple years late with this post, since much of it is an indictment of QBs that have been part of the last decades QB carousel. As Oldfan noted in posts a few years back, this is now a passing league, but successful passing attacks in recent years are quite different in certain respects from pass happy teams like Air Coryell or Bill Walsh teams. The combination of hybrid LB/DEs like Freeney and Orakpo along with zone blitzes and stunts up the center from guys like Justin Tuck, combined with renewed emphasis on the 5 yard no contact rules, have combined to force teams into producing a successful intermediate passing game. The bread and butter of modern offenses to my eyes seems to be the midrange passing game - 10 to 15 yards out looking for holes in the zone, while the dink and dunk WCO (particularly variations of the bubble screen) and the long ball are only thrown in on occasion to keep the D honest. In today's NFL, the primary ingredients needed for a great QB are velocity and accuracy.

When it comes to arm strength, distance is only a smaller part of the equation. Velocity is far more important, and yet most people completely overlook it. Gibbs became enamored with Jason Campbell because he could launch the ball downfield with a nice arc on it. Undoubtedly he had illusions of recreating the Mark Rypien era - a QB with one of the greatest deep balls in history who struggled greatly under 15 yards. This just isn't the mold of a 21st century passer. Campbell had distance strength, but no velocity strength at all. Combine that with a slow release and terrible accuracy, and you get a guy who can't fulfill the greatest requirement of a successful modern passer - threading the needle. Leftwich, Campbell, Alex Smith and a host of others can probably throw the ball farther than Drew Brees, but what makes guys like Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady so elite is their ability to fit the ball in tight spots. Brady and Rodgers have the rare combination of both elite throwing distance and high velocity. The fact that Rodgers is also mobile means that he may even surpass Brady as the best QB in the league if he stays healthy. Peyton is above average at both, but his exceptional vision and accuracy make him a future HOFer. McNabb has both, but very questionable accuracy, ESPECIALLY in the intermediate passing game - I'm always grateful that it took years for Andy Reid to realize what a lousy fit McNabb was for all the dinking and dunking.

A quick release is also a huge plus, if not a prerequisite. The bubble screen to Santana Moos, which was so dangerous with Brunell in '05, was impossible for Campbell. By the time he made his read and got through his throwing motions, the defender was already there. Add that to his propensity for inaccuracy, and the coaches wisely shelved the play for fear of a pick-6. In a preseason game last year I remember Beck throwing a quick slant to a WR and thinking to myself, "So simple, and yet Jason Campbell never made that kind of a throw." Beck seems to have a quick release, decent velocity (from what little I've seen...may I add I'm waiting until Tues to be able to watch the Steelers game when it gets re-aired), but is reportedly limited in terms of distance. Grossman has distance, average velocity, decent accuracy, and a reasonably quick release. My concern with him, however, is his hands. I don't think he gets a decent enough grip on the ball, and as a result, his passes all too often tend to float. A little arc on deep balls is fine with speedy guys like Santana Moss, but doesn't bode quite as well in the 10-20 yards range. If my theory about Grossman's small hand-size is correct, this means the situation will be worse in wet conditions when it's tougher to grip the ball. From what glimpses I caught of Grossman during his tenure with the Bears, the anecdotal observations I made seem to bear this out. In the beginning he was lighting things up, but once teams got film on him, coaches starting telling their DBs to look back more for the ball, and a lot of wounded ducks started piling up into interceptions. Of course, he was playing for the Bears, who evenmade a monkey out of Jay Cutler.... Still, I think it's something to keep an eye on during preseason - is he putting too much air under short to intermediate throws. Stay tuned....

[Weganator]

I'm admittedly a couple years late with this post, since much of it is an indictment of QBs that have been part of the last decades QB carousel.

As Oldfan noted in posts a few years back, this is now a passing league, but successful passing attacks in recent years are quite different in certain respects from pass happy teams like Air Coryell or Bill Walsh teams. The combination of hybrid LB/DEs like Freeney and Orakpo along with zone blitzes and stunts up the center from guys like Justin Tuck, combined with renewed emphasis on the 5 yard no contact rules, have combined to force teams into producing a successful intermediate passing game.

The bread and butter of modern offenses to my eyes seems to be the midrange passing game - 10 to 15 yards out looking for holes in the zone, while the dink and dunk WCO (particularly variations of the bubble screen) and the long ball are only thrown in on occasion to keep the D honest. In today's NFL, the primary ingredients needed for a great QB are velocity and accuracy.

When it comes to arm strength, distance is only a smaller part of the equation. Velocity is far more important, and yet most people completely overlook it. Gibbs became enamored with Jason Campbell because he could launch the ball downfield with a nice arc on it. Undoubtedly he had illusions of recreating the Mark Rypien era - a QB with one of the greatest deep balls in history who struggled greatly under 15 yards. This just isn't the mold of a 21st century passer.

Campbell had distance strength, but no velocity strength at all. Combine that with a slow release and terrible accuracy, and you get a guy who can't fulfill the greatest requirement of a successful modern passer - threading the needle. Leftwich, Campbell, Alex Smith and a host of others can probably throw the ball farther than Drew Brees, but what makes guys like Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady so elite is their ability to fit the ball in tight spots. Brady and Rodgers have the rare combination of both elite throwing distance and high velocity. The fact that Rodgers is also mobile means that he may even surpass Brady as the best QB in the league if he stays healthy. Peyton is above average at both, but his exceptional vision and accuracy make him a future HOFer. McNabb has both, but very questionable accuracy, ESPECIALLY in the intermediate passing game - I'm always grateful that it took years for Andy Reid to realize what a lousy fit McNabb was for all the dinking and dunking.

A quick release is also a huge plus, if not a prerequisite. The bubble screen to Santana Moos, which was so dangerous with Brunell in '05, was impossible for Campbell. By the time he made his read and got through his throwing motions, the defender was already there. Add that to his propensity for inaccuracy, and the coaches wisely shelved the play for fear of a pick-6. In a preseason game last year I remember Beck throwing a quick slant to a WR and thinking to myself, "So simple, and yet Jason Campbell never made that kind of a throw." Beck seems to have a quick release, decent velocity (from what little I've seen...may I add I'm waiting until Tues to be able to watch the Steelers game when it gets re-aired), but is reportedly limited in terms of distance.

Grossman has distance, average velocity, decent accuracy, and a reasonably quick release. My concern with him, however, is his hands. I don't think he gets a decent enough grip on the ball, and as a result, his passes all too often tend to float. A little arc on deep balls is fine with speedy guys like Santana Moss, but doesn't bode quite as well in the 10-20 yards range. If my theory about Grossman's small hand-size is correct, this means the situation will be worse in wet conditions when it's tougher to grip the ball. From what glimpses I caught of Grossman during his tenure with the Bears, the anecdotal observations I made seem to bear this out. In the beginning he was lighting things up, but once teams got film on him, coaches starting telling their DBs to look back more for the ball, and a lot of wounded ducks started piling up into interceptions. Of course, he was playing for the Bears, who evenmade a monkey out of Jay Cutler.... Still, I think it's something to keep an eye on during preseason - is he putting too much air under short to intermediate throws. Stay tuned....

Decent read.. Figured I would format it for all future readers...

[darrelgreenie]

In today's NFL, the primary ingredients needed for a great QB are velocity and accuracy.

When it comes to arm strength, distance is only a smaller part of the equation. Velocity is far more important, and yet most people completely overlook it.

I'm not sure why you think people overlook velocity when it comes to arm strength?

When they measure arm strength at the combine they measure by radar a QB throwing a 20 yard comeback one of the staple measures for NFL arm strength.

I think Beck is a better thrower/passer then a lot of the media gives him credit for being.

(probably because the media present at training camp largely has no idea how to judge what they're looking at)

From watching him in Miami and in last year's preseason I think his ability to throw with a quick release, accuracy and velocity are evident.

His velocity was also verified by radar at the combine at IIRC 61 mph, putting him only slighty behind Jay Cutler and in the same ball park as Joe Flacco in terms of velocity.

And of course with velocity comes distance.

[WyomingRedskin]

I'm guessing this was typed before the Steelers game and you have not seen the game yet?

[skinfan2k]

Bubble screens will be back in full force this year and i think one of the ways Banks will get into our offense. I can see a lot of reverses, quick pitches, and a lot of quick screens passes this year for him

[darrelgreenie]

BTW-

I would love to read your comments and take about the differences between Beck and Rex in this thread:

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?348966-Who-is-the-more-physically-gifted-QB-Rex-Grossman-or-John-Beck&p=8414181#post8414181

Your OP involves some of the kind of analysis I was hoping for in that thread.

-HTTR

[herrmag]

Decent read.. Figured I would format it for all future readers...

Thank you. Seriously, no offense to Riggo, but that was previously unreadable until you did that.

[TheItalianStallion]

When it comes to arm strength, distance is only a smaller part of the equation. Velocity is far more important, and yet most people completely overlook it. Gibbs became enamored with Jason Campbell because he could launch the ball downfield with a nice arc on it. Undoubtedly he had illusions of recreating the Mark Rypien era - a QB with one of the greatest deep balls in history who struggled greatly under 15 yards. This just isn't the mold of a 21st century passer. Campbell had distance strength, but no velocity strength at all.

You have it backwards. He had a good intermediate ball but an inaccurate deep ball.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

You have it backwards. He had a good intermediate ball but an inaccurate deep ball.

He was inaccurate intermediate as well. Remember how many times our receivers were forced to jump for every pass cause Campbell threw too high on a comeback route? Campbell killed our receiver YAC.

[DC_BearsFan]

This is the whole eye test thing, Grossman cant be a solid NFL caliber QB at only 6"1, elite Qbs must be 6'4 or taller, forget about Drew Brees, he doesn't count...

[TheItalianStallion]

He was inaccurate intermediate as well. Remember how many times our receivers were forced to jump for every pass cause Campbell threw too high on a comeback route? Campbell killed our receiver YAC.

I don't have the stats right in front of me but his comp% from 2008-9 on passes which traveled 10-29 yards thru the air was among the better in the league, maybe even top 10, can't remember for sure.

At the risk of this becoming a Campbell thread, any responses to this post will be addressed via PM.

[MartinC]

I think NFL coaches have always defined arm strength in terms of velocity - throwing a deep out has always been the acid test of if a QB has an NFL arm. It's fans who generally confuse arm strength with the distance a QB can throw - there are probably lots of us on ES who with a bit of a run and a good step into the throw can launch a football 50 yards plus. I doubt there are many though who can throw a 20 yard out from the opposite hash on a line.

I agree that the intermediate passing game is critical in the modern NFL and it's the bedrock of our passing game. Modern pass rushes make it very hard to protect on seven step drops and the speed of defenses make it tough to consistently get YAC out if a short passing game. It was noticeable that when we throw deep it's almost always off some kind of roll out, we rarely drop straight back if we want to throw vertically.

The issue of hand size is interesting. They measure QBs hands at the combine so again it's a known factor. The general theory is that small hands affect grip on the football and hamper ball security. I'm not sure that they will cause the football to float generally but it would seem logical there is more chance of the ball coming out of the hand incorrectly so you may see a few more ducks with Grossman than a QB with bigger hands. Hand size is given as one of the reasons Rex has a tendency to fumble.

[SkinsFTW]

You have it backwards. He had a good intermediate ball but an inaccurate deep ball.

He's saying he hoped too. It didn't work out since Candle was no where near as accurate deep as Rypien.

[PCS]

Not bad,(Thanks Weganator),but I'll have to get back to you about the hand size thing. Guys with the small hands tend to learn how to grip the ball a bit differently early on so the ball comes out okay. I also agree with what one QB said last year in an article I read about what today's QB's thought they and those after them would need in todays game. He stated that todays QB needs to be able to throw with a variety of motions. From over the top to sidearm. This due in large part to the way defenses come at the QB and tend to get in their way.

[Oldfan]

Interesting thread.

Here are a few thoughts on mechanics:

hand size:

I have taught sons , grandsons, and other people’s boys to throw a football. Small hands make it impossible to teach a good grip. The QB can’t put enough space between the palm and the ball; they have to keep the hand underneath the ball; and they have to grip too tightly with the fingers which hinders the relaxation of the wrist.

I can’t confirm your “floating” theory from my experience, but small hands most certainly are a disadvantage.

arm strength:

When people use this term, some use it as being synonymous with velocity; others use it referring to distance. I think we need those terms to mean different things, so I use it referring to distance. I use “velocity” when the ball is thrown on a line.

I think velocity is generally an underrated factor while arm strength is generally overrated.

quick release:

This is another term which is hard to define. To me, “quick release” starts at ground level. I’m thinking: How long does it take this guy to come off his first read and move his feet to throw to his second? Short, compact motions are quicker.

I think the quick release is very important in today’s game.

[fnkdctr(007)]

Decent read.. Figured I would format it for all future readers...

Copy editor to the stars.

I think its read and react. Predict the spot in the zone and attack. Grossman might just be hitting his stride.

[ouvan59]

He was inaccurate intermediate as well. Remember how many times our receivers were forced to jump for every pass cause Campbell threw too high on a comeback route? Campbell killed our receiver YAC.

I think that had more to do with him delivering the ball late. He was so damn slow with his reads that receivers were almost always well out of their breaks when the ball got there and the defensive backs had time to recover.

[Skins Wingman]

Gibbs became enamored with Jason Campbell because he could launch the ball downfield with a nice arc on it.

this is where i stopped reading.. campbell threw the flattest deep balls. his ball had no arc, giving the receivers no chance to adjust. dont know what you were watching

[Oldfan]

this is where i stopped reading.. campbell threw the flattest deep balls. his ball had no arc, giving the receivers no chance to adjust. dont know what you were watching

To my eyes, Campbell threw a beautiful deep pass before Al Saunders and Jim Zorn overhauled his mechanics. While their work helped him considerably overall, he lost his touch on the deep ball.

[martytheman]

He was inaccurate intermediate as well. Remember how many times our receivers were forced to jump for every pass cause Campbell threw too high on a comeback route? Campbell killed our receiver YAC.

Not to mention the fact that the ball was never EVER delivered in stride, intermediate or long. The receiver ALWAYS had to basically stop and wait on the ball to get there, and the ball would be batted away or the poor guy would be blown up, or both.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Once of Rex's issues is his little baby hands, right?

Or am I thinking of someone else.

[TheItalianStallion]

To my eyes, Campbell threw a beautiful deep pass before Al Saunders and Jim Zorn overhauled his mechanics. While their work helped him considerably overall, he lost his touch on the deep ball.

Similar to my observation. He connected on deep balls at a good clip in 2006, and even 2007, though there were a couple of his infamous 5 yard overthrows of Moss that year. However he struggled with the intermediate stuff. In 2008-9, his intermediate stuff improved dramatically, though his deep ball tanked. He actually did appear to put more arc on the deep ball last year with the Raiders. I noticed this on numerous occasions, including a couple where the receiver had a small part of their 2nd foot on the chalk despite ample opportunity to get in in-bounds.

[darrelgreenie]

Campbell's deep ball accuracy was likely effected by the pass protection.

After getting hit a ton its possible that he was rushing his deep ball throws.