Homer: A statistical look at just how bad Redskins' offensive line is

[TheLongshot]

You had to make the McNabb deal happen. Too much value for too little cost. What were you going to do otherwise? We're then talking Sam Bradford (if they could pull it off), Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, or someone like that. In other words, forget about Trent Williams most likely.

I understand the "value" there, but the value would make more sense for a team with more pieces to work with. Fact is, by the time we have the pieces to take advantage of a veteran like McNabb, he's likely going to be done. Hell, he might be done already for as much as I know. I mean, how do you make that decision in the wake of saying that you are going to convert to a 3-4 defense? Most knew after that announcement that there would need to be more talent upheaval on the defense because not everyone was going to fit into it. That has ended up being true.

Personally, you take the hit. If you don't find your QB in the draft, you roll with Campbell or Grossman for a year and look in next year's draft, knowing that the first year is probably going to be a wash. The problem is, coaches want to win. This is why I don't like coaches in charge of selecting players because most of them will more often than not will choose the "win now" move more often than not. We need a long-term plan to build this team into a perenial winner. McNabb isn't going to do that.

We are going to be fortunate if he gets one good year under him and make a hot run to the playoffs. But, I don't want a one-and-done team. I want a team that is a winner in most years. I think that is what most of us want.

[darrelgreenie]

So if you’re wondering why the Redskins have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns (13 to 11), is converting only 27 percent of their third downs or has had 12 different running backs on the roster this season, it’s because the offensive line is failing.

I agree that our OL is a work in progress at best and i understand what you're saying.

But, if we're going to be fair the rest of the offense from the OC to the QB haven't been on point.

And i don't mean that as a knock in anyway b/c i think both Kyle and McNabb have proven in their own right what they're capable of doing.

But, the OL was worse last year yet the passing game was better in every meaningful metric.(TD to INT, 3rd down conversion, RZ, YPA, comp %, QB rating).

While our OL isn't good last year's was probably worse.

The biggest failure of Mike Shanahan in my opinion was his inability to manage expectations. He took over a four-win team. Had he come in, tempered expectations and admitted that there was a lot of work to be done before the Redskins can earn a seat back at the grown-up's table, I truly believe this season would have been much easier to stomach.

I agree and you would hope that as fans that follow this team closely we wouldn't need to be told the actuality.

But, I think Shanahan is oblivious to and thinks very little of fan and media perception and it never even occured to him.

Another good article and as alway nice photos on flickr.

[authentic]

I'm hoping that this team can somehow grab another OL starter and a QB to groom for the future in this draft. That plus some smart FA moves (more OL, DL, and WR help) would make me thrilled going into year 2. There would be a nice, comfortable feeling of patience if we had a young QB learning the Shanahan system in the background.

yup, thats exactly the way i see it as well.

[illone]

I don't think it's Mike Shanahan's job to temper my expectations, or anyone elses. My expectations are my own choice, not his. If I choose to expect more than what is reasonably possible or doable for this team, that's my own stupid prognostication based on limited information.

I don't assume many rational thinking fans assumed Mike to come in here and fix this mess overnight. I was excited when he brought McNabb in and drafted Trent, but I also knew 8 wins would be a huge improvement for this squad knowing it was going to be 2-3 fat boy heavy drafts for this oline to compete with the best of them.

[Annonymous Source]

Okay, fine. We can agree to disagree on Shanahan's initial comments at his introductory press conference, but the problem with your argument is the team could still rebuild without Shanahan ever have to say a word. The Eagles got rid of McNabb, Westbrook and everyone else over the age of 30 and are already back in good shape for the foreseeable. Teams like Tampa Bay and Kansas City also opted to fully embrace a youth movement in the last few years and, related news, both are currently 7-4. All Shanahan did was delay the inevitable a year because he thought he could work some sort of magic with an over-the-hill roster.

Those teams only got rid of all of their veterans because they knew that they had the capability of getting enough talented young guys in to make a coherent team. The Redskins got rid of massive numbers of veterans in the offseason, and then realized that there wasnt anybody out there to replace them with. Arguing about weather Shannahan intended to rebuild is an unproductive discussion, instead look at what the end result is. This franchise is clearly in transition.

great read as always.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

When you say that "everything wrong with the burgundy and gold comes down one glaring weakness – the offensive line," you are guilty of overstatement. If you had said that the O-line is the weakest unit on a team that doesn't have a strong unit, I would agree.

If your overstatement had been the only flaw in your argument, I would not have bothered to reply. My main criticism with your piece is that you decided to place blame for the O-line problem on Vinny Cerrato when it belongs to Joe Gibbs. While I think that Joe is a great guy and Vinny's a weasel, fairness dictates that I defend Vinny in this case.

When Gibbs came back in 2004, he identified the O-line as its strongest unit. He reaffirmed that position again late in the 2005 season when Portis's running propelled the team into the playoffs. In December of 2007, I authored a thread predicting that the O-line would be our weakest unit in 2008 because of the age and injury history of the linemen. Most posters agreed with me, but there were some who debated the idea.

For three drafts, 2004-5-6, Joe Gibbs traded draft picks for vets and got little in return. Joe neglected the O-line in the draft BECAUSE it was his strongest unit at the time. The truth is that Vinny passed over just one highly rated O-lineman in his two years in charge of the draft. He passed on Oher to draft Orakpo. I would have done the same.

Trading draft picks for vets is a win-now policy. That failed policy (2004-6) caused the O-line weakness. Trading draft picks for Brown and McNabb last offseason continued that flawed policy.

Nice post. Defending Vinny isn't popular and makes me sick sometimes, but this is a very accurate representation of what went on. What Gibbs realized was that his OL would be a strength for the 4-5 years he planned on coaching the team. He had a couple very good players and a couple decent role players right in their primes. The 2005-2006 seasons confirmed that our OL was our strength during Gibbs' second stint in Washington...not to the dominating extent it was in the 1980s, but it was still our best and most consistent unit. So, he tried to sprinkle in the skill players to put us over the top (Lloyd, Randle-El, Duckett, etc.).

Everyone got old right around the same time and we are left with trying to rebuild the entire OL instead of being able to slide in some rookies to play with some still-effective veterans.

[authentic]

I don't think it's Mike Shanahan's job to temper my expectations, or anyone elses. My expectations are my own choice, not his. If I choose to expect more than what is reasonably possible or doable for this team, that's my own stupid prognostication based on limited information.

^^This!! I think most reasonable fans where happy because bringing in Shanny and Bruce symbolized stability and a real PLAN for the future. Sure we wanted them to be competative. But logic would suggest that nothing substantial was going to happen this season. Perhaps in 2011 or 2012, but definately not this season.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I don't think it's Mike Shanahan's job to temper my expectations, or anyone elses. My expectations are my own choice, not his. If I choose to expect more than what is reasonably possible or doable for this team, that's my own stupid prognostication based on limited information.

I don't assume many rational thinking fans assumed Mike to come in here and fix this mess overnight. I was excited when he brought McNabb in and drafted Trent, but I also knew 8 wins would be a huge improvement for this squad knowing it was going to be 2-3 fat boy heavy drafts for this oline to compete with the best of them.

That's my main point...no coach can temper expectations and then look his players in the eye and tell them he expects them to go win a game on the field. You could argue that this is one downfall to having your coach also be your main personnel guy...since a GM can say those things without having the one-on-one interaction with the players.

In the end, I agree with the point...we seem stuck between rebuilding and trying to hold our own. I've been in favor of a dramatic rebuild for years now, so I'd love nothing more than to see a team like Detroit or Houston or Cleveland or St. Louis has. To be honest though, I think we'll be there in a couple years...we'll just have some of our guys a little more grown up when the new QB takes over the reigns.

[TheLongshot]

When you say that "everything wrong with the burgundy and gold comes down one glaring weakness – the offensive line," you are guilty of overstatement. If you had said that the O-line is the weakest unit on a team that doesn't have a strong unit, I would agree.

If your overstatement had been the only flaw in your argument, I would not have bothered to reply. My main criticism with your piece is that you decided to place blame for the O-line problem on Vinny Cerrato when it belongs to Joe Gibbs. While I think that Joe is a great guy and Vinny's a weasel, fairness dictates that I defend Vinny in this case.

When Gibbs came back in 2004, he identified the O-line as its strongest unit. He reaffirmed that position again late in the 2005 season when Portis's running propelled the team into the playoffs. In December of 2007, I authored a thread predicting that the O-line would be our weakest unit in 2008 because of the age and injury history of the linemen. Most posters agreed with me, but there were some who debated the idea.

For three drafts, 2004-5-6, Joe Gibbs traded draft picks for vets and got little in return. Joe neglected the O-line in the draft BECAUSE it was his strongest unit at the time. The truth is that Vinny passed over just one highly rated O-lineman in his two years in charge of the draft. He passed on Oher to draft Orakpo. I would have done the same.

Trading draft picks for vets is a win-now policy. That failed policy (2004-6) caused the O-line weakness. Trading draft picks for Brown and McNabb last offseason continued that flawed policy.

I think people ignore the fact that Vinny had a large role in building the OL that Gibbs had, with Jansen being the only guy he inherited. You can nail Vinny for not drafting linemen, but I think it is more of the larger problem of changing offensive philosophies and finding skill players to fit the new philosophies. That's something you can blame Snyder for.

I'm one of the guilty ones who thought we could get a few more years out of the guys we had, tho I did see the need to draft OL in 2007, probably the first year where I would have considered drafting an OL high. Instead, we had no picks to spend on a lineman, which forced Wade to move to guard with Dock leaving and the team to reup Jansen instead of drafting a young replacement for him.

[darrelgreenie]

Unfortunately, I think Shanahan compounded things by trading for McNabb. I thought at the time that it was a big mistake to do that, and I still stand by that. Not only does it deny the reality that we would be fortunate if the OL was decent, it also sets expectations whether you want to or not.

I understood the pick although i didn't neccessarily agree.

I think the gamble with McNabb centers on how fast Shanhan/Allen think they can build a contending team around him.

The plus with McNabb is that if you put the pieces around him you know that he can produce at a high (pro-bowl) level.

And unless that happen quickly like in the next 2 years i didn't think we'll be in position to benefit from McNabb because of the state of the team.

You had to make the McNabb deal happen. Too much value for too little cost. What were you going to do otherwise? We're then talking Sam Bradford (if they could pull it off), Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, or someone like that. In other words, forget about Trent Williams most likely.

Since we're in re-building/re-tooling mode anyway you roll with Campbell and trade down in the 2nd for McCoy (20/20 hindsight now but the Shanahan's liked him coming out) and you still get Trent Williams w/ the 1st.

[wrecker]

This year's team under Shannahan, with last year's schedule, makes the playoffs. We were utterly atrocious with a cake walk schedule and still managed to win just 4 games. Last year's team, playing this years schedule? I really believe we would be picking #1 overall.

How can you say that? We lost to the Lions and Rams this year and got blown out by biblical proportions by the Eagles on national television at home. At least last year we squeaked by the Rams.

We still play to the level of competition as we did last year. We still have lack of execution. We still have critical drops, trips and penalties at the worst possible times.

It is still 50/50 if we can hold onto a lead at the end of a game. We still cannot score in the red zone. Whenever we try a trick play it doesn't work. Our QB is still getting the snot knocked out of him.

LOS still can't catch. Fred Davis is still not getting enough touches. Malcom Kelly is still hurt. We still do not have a receiver over 6 feet tall. We still do not have a reliable running back behind Portis.

The similarities by far outweigh the differences with this team from last year to this year. I see very little difference besides our defense going from top ten last year to last in the league this year.

[themurf]

I don't think it's Mike Shanahan's job to temper my expectations, or anyone elses. My expectations are my own choice, not his. If I choose to expect more than what is reasonably possible or doable for this team, that's my own stupid prognostication based on limited information.

I don't assume many rational thinking fans assumed Mike to come in here and fix this mess overnight. I was excited when he brought McNabb in and drafted Trent, but I also knew 8 wins would be a huge improvement for this squad knowing it was going to be 2-3 fat boy heavy drafts for this oline to compete with the best of them.

You're right. Mike Shanahan and the Redskins don't HAVE to do anything. But like I said in my previous post, if the Redskins would pay a little more attention to how the Capitals do business, it would make life easier for everyone at Redskins Park and -- more importantly -- for 'Skins fans. Whether we're talking about his introductory press conference or the handling of Donovan McNabb's benching, it's clear Shanahan and friends do not have all the answers. They just carry themselves as if they do.

All of that unnecessary drama could be avoided if someone within the organization thought about being open and honest. Or maybe, if they ensured their message was getting out to their fanbase/consumers. Or if they paid more attention to feedback from fans. They don't have to go out and sign or trade for every player a person on ES starts a thread about. They just need to show a minimal effort to make fans feel connected. That small gesture won't only temper expectations, it'll also greatly reduce the ****ing and moaning about the cost of tickets and parking/the lackluster gameday experience/the losing record year after year, etc.

So yeah, they don't have to do any of that. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't do it.

[Commander PK]

This

Getting this team back to respectability is going to take some time. This mess wasn't created in one season, and it's going to take longer than that to fix it.

[KDawg]

Shanahan screwed up in saying we were going to compete. I've been saying this for months. When you give a reason for expectations, you give the fans a reason to think we should have them. Then when it turns out there shouldn't have been ANY expectations, fans are going to be angry.

Go into it with the stated goal being rebuilding. Then, when you win, it's bonus. When you lose, it's not something to be all that alarmed about.

This was on Shanahan. He doesn't have to say anything... Yet he chose to say we were going to be competitive. Fundamental error on his part.

[Commander PK]

Yet he chose to say we were going to be competitive. Fundamental error on his part.

but in his defense a bit, we have been competitive. In every game we have played but one. The problem, is every game seems to come down to a 50/50 chance.

[KDawg]

but in his defense a bit, we have been competitive. In every game we have played but one. The problem, is every game seems to come down to a 50/50 chance.

Yes. We have been competitive. However, if he had tempered expectations us being competitive would have meant a lot more to more of us.

And let's be honest, we're seeing a Redskin team that is doing the same things our teams have done for the last several years. Play up to good competition and down to bad competition. Sure, there's an improvement in record (and coaching, and FO) but it looks the same.

[AzSkinsFan63]

Let''s not forget the defensive line is playing a 3-4 without a real nose tackle and missing a few speedy line backers that can make tackles in the open field., (In other words not whiff).

The real sad part about the Skins O-line is that usually a bad O-line either run blocks well and can't pass block or vice versa. This interior stinks at both..

[authentic]

Yes. We have been competitive. However, if he had tempered expectations us being competitive would have meant a lot more to more of us.

And let's be honest, we're seeing a Redskin team that is doing the same things our teams have done for the last several years. Play up to good competition and down to bad competition. Sure, there's an improvement in record (and coaching, and FO) but it looks the same.

I understand your point. But the problem is that this year's team is not a rebuilding roster, not with (Portis, Al, Daniels, Rabach, Brown, Galloway, Hicks...etc). I think Murf correctly diagnosed it by stating that, he went into this thinking that he could do SOME rebuilding but then glue together a playoff roster at the sametime. Obviously that strategy didn't work. Though, it wasn't much else he could do with limited draft picks and a putrid FA class.

[KDawg]

I understand your point. But the problem is that this year's team is not a rebuilding roster, not with (Portis, Al, Daniels, Rabach, Brown, Galloway, Hicks...etc). I think Murf correctly diagnosed it by stating that, he went into this thinking that he could do SOME rebuilding but then glue together a playoff roster at the sametime. Obviously that strategy didn't work.

If you've read my threads on this forum, you should know I fully agree that we're doing this the wrong way.

But I STILL would have given more of the benefit of the doubt if he had said we were rebuilding... Of course, then I probably would have expected us to pull the trigger on sitting the old farts a little faster too...

I think a lot of us KNEW that strategy wouldn't work. It never does for this team. We've NEVER hit the reset button here with Snyder. And we've been in purgatory because of that.

[rookieskin]

If we draft anyting other than OL and maybe 1 DL NT in the first 3 rounds we are idiots.

We have 1 O lineman right now.

I am so sick of seeing big name lineman come in and fail to work out.

Let's draft the trench talent and add the pieces once we have the frame and engine built.

You don't pick the tires and colors before the engine is built.

[authentic]

If you've read my threads on this forum, you should know I fully agree that we're doing this the wrong way.

But I STILL would have given more of the benefit of the doubt if he had said we were rebuilding... Of course, then I probably would have expected us to pull the trigger on sitting the old farts a little faster too...

I think a lot of us KNEW that strategy wouldn't work. It never does for this team. We've NEVER hit the reset button here with Snyder. And we've been in purgatory because of that.

Ok, i see what you're saying.

[Frostx08]

The biggest failure of Mike Shanahan in my opinion was his inability to manage expectations. He took over a four-win team. Had he come in, tempered expectations and admitted that there was a lot of work to be done before the Redskins can earn a seat back at the grown-up's table, I truly believe this season would have been much easier to stomach.

The reason the Capitals are treated like royalty is because the owner and the general manager have been completely open and honest since the day the decided to rebuild the franchise. Ted Leonsis calls it transparency, and says he owes it to paying customers to be upfront and honest.

Shanahan, it seems, is trying to win now and build for the future - but you can't really have it both ways. Don't try to slap a band-aid on a decade-long problem by signing Joey Galloway. Embrace the goodwill Redskins fans are showing you and do your best to get some youth in the lineup. At the same time, tell your fanbase that's what you're doing. Honesty goes a long way towards building that patience.

Instead, on the first day Shanahan took over the job, he thumbed his nose at the idea of rebuilding. Even went as far as to say he hates the word. Here's his direct quotes from his introductory press conference:

On if Redskins fans should brace for a rebuilding period:

“That’s always tough because I always hate to use the word rebuilding. I think any time you win four games that’s going to happen. People are going to talk about rebuilding and doing the things that it takes to be the best team possible. I’ve got very high standards just like everybody in this organization. I can’t tell you how long it’s going to take, but I can guarantee you one thing – we’ll get better every day and hopefully it won’t be long until we’re back to where this organization has been.”

On how much of a rebuilding process there will be along the offensive line:

“Well like I said, I’m going to have to evaluate that over the next few weeks and I’ll be able to give you a better answer after looking at all the film and talking to some of these guys. What we’re going to do is take a look at our personnel before we decide exactly what we will do offensively, defensively, and on special teams. That’s part of it. As we talked about before, we’ll be working hard every day to improve our talent level, to improve the competition so we can get back to where we’ve been.”

I have my critiques when needed....so by no means is Shanahan perfect at all. However, I can't really agree with your premise that he was supposed to say "hey we're rebuilding". Common sense should tell everyone that there's work to be done.....but at the same time what would Shanahan be saying to the rest of his players if he said that?

I've heard several fans use that argument, Chad Dukes on the radio included included. Saying that the reason for certain expectations was because we were supposedly in win now mode. Common sense should have told any fan that we had work to be done...but that we were simply trying to take a step forward. When you believe you can win now...you believe you can win a Super Bowl. If you're a fan and you didn't expect us to win a SB....then you should have expected at least another offseason to make even more moves. I went into this season optimistic and cautious...but not ridiculously unrealistic

In other words, you're a new coach...you want to bring in a winning attitude to an organization plagued by failure for years and years. How does essentially saying "our players suck...we're rebuilding and we're gonna eventually cut the bums" leadership?? He wanted to establish a winning attitude and culture for the team. In essence, this year was a trial period...to see who may be a gem and who isn't. I say this while still questioning many of Shanny's moves(Willie Parker, Larry Johnson, Joey Galloway...cutting Brandon Banks)

[Dick Edds]

I honestly don't care what our record is, or if we lose to the Giamts twice. I just want to see us improve each week for the next five weeks and be in these games till the end. Dumb down the playbook if you have to ... re-insert the wildcat with Banks... use Fred Davis at the split end position with Cooley on the field at the same time. It's time to try some other things (including benching RABACH). I seriously think he is the weakest link, don;t care if he recognizes coverages, doens't matter if he gets to the next level when he's blown-up and tossed like a rag doll on every play. Put Dock back out there and bench Rabach, and shuffle the LG/C/RG spots if you have to. Do SOMETHING different.

[Coach Janky Spanky]

Vinny tried to collect more draft picks? Um ... when? Where were the rest of us?

As much as I hate Vinny, he did get us 10 picks in 2008. That draft just turned out to be a monumental bust, drafting receivers and a punter and Chad Rinehardt instead of real O-Lineman.

As far as drafting O-line, just look at the jets. I think 3 out of their 5 starters were first or second round picks (could be wrong on that one). And not only do we need to pick O-lineman on the first day from now on, but we need to draft O-lineman every single year. That's what the good teams do -- keep supplementing them year-in and year-out with 3rd, 4th, or 5th rounders. That's how you get to a place where the lines are no longer a weakness and you can really start going after the skill positions.

As far as rebuilding -- I desperately wish we had more picks, and I'm still ambivalent on giving up 2 picks for McNabb...but rebuilding can happen in today's NFL a lot faster than it could in the past. One of the main problems was that last offseason the Free Agency pool was so limited because of the CBA situation, and that really hurt us. Look at the Pats, for example, who were apparently rebuilding the past year or two, while still winning games (granted, they haven't been criminally mismanaged for the past decade...and then again, their defense isn't great). With Free Agency, it's possible to do it more quickly than traditionally has been the case in the past.

[Conn]

You had to make the McNabb deal happen. Too much value for too little cost. What were you going to do otherwise? We're then talking Sam Bradford (if they could pull it off), Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, or someone like that. In other words, forget about Trent Williams most likely.

I'd forget about Trent Williams if it meant Sam Bradford. Easily. Every time. Have you seen the kid play? If healthy, he's the real deal. He's arguably playing better than McNabb, with even less WR talent. However, he does have Steven Jackson and a decent OL.

At the same time--this is what I would've done.

Do whatever it takes to get Bradford. Use the 2nd round pick you'd still have to draft a LT...like the Rams did. In the 4th round, draft Bruce Campbell, who was still there, rather than Perry Riley. Trade Cooley for a 3rd rounder, or a future 2nd (Or, conversely, actually build your new offensive system around using both TE's).

Stick with the 4-3 until NEXT year, if you even still want to make the switch, when you can add the talent you need to run it well. That also gives you one more year to wait for the D-Coordinator you REALLY want running the 3-4 (aka not Haslett). Oh, and it just might make one of our biggest assets, Haynesworth, more useful and less of a media whore.

All of a sudden, we're looking at a team with a young franchise QB, just as much youth brought in on the OL, if not more. And a defense that we're fit to run, at least for another year.

We'd be looking younger, it would look like we're rebuilding...and man, we'd probably be just as competitive, if not more.

And yes, we'd be sacrificing the fact that Trent Williams looks like he could be an All-Pro in the future. But looking around the league, a QB like Sam Bradford can make up for having a good OL, instead of a great one.

Just my thoughts on what my ideal scenario would have been.