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Homer: A statistical look at just how bad Redskins' offensive line is


themurf

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(photo by Brian Murphy)

What if, to steal a phrase from the immortal Denny Green, the Washington Redskins are who we thought they were?

What if they really are an 8-8 team at best? What if the cupboard was truly so barren when general manager Bruce Allen and head coach Mike Shanahan took over that it really was going to take multiple seasons to turn this franchise into something resembling respectability?

On this week’s episode of Skinscast, I was down on the Redskins. Like, really down. As in, I went on record as saying that if someone could guarantee that Washington would win two of their last five games – which would mean a 7-9 season – I said I’d take it in a heartbeat.

My thought process is that there are so many areas of concern on this roster that there’s little reason to believe this team is capable of putting together a streak like 2005 or 2007 to sneak into the postseason.

Think about it – Shanahan is a two-time Super Bowl winning coach who has a history of turning ordinary running backs into 1,000-yard rushers seemingly overnight.

His son, Kyle, was the man behind the Houston Texans’ dynamic passing attack that just one season ago was best in the NFL.

His quarterback, Donovan McNabb, is a six-time Pro Bowler who easily ranks among the best at his position over the last decade.

And yet, the Redskins offense is terrible. They rank 21st in the league in yards, 25th overall in points per game and give little reason to believe when the game is on the line that they’re capable of doing anything remotely special.

Did the head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback all suddenly forget how to play football? Did they lose their mojo simply by coming to town? Are the Redskins really that cursed?

Let’s be honest – what we’re seeing has nothing to do with the team lining up against Washington week in and week out. No, everything wrong with the burgundy and gold comes down one glaring weakness – the offensive line.

Look, it’s no secret that the former regime openly neglected the offensive line. Why draft a guard when a receiver or safety is still on the board? People don’t buy jerseys of offensive linemen, so why even bother?

Skill positions are much more enjoyable to watch film of, so it was easy for Vinny Cerrato to pause his Saturday morning cartoons to watch highlights of a raw Michigan State receiver tearing up the Big 10. I mean, doesn’t that sound way more fun than watching two fat bodies do battle in the trenches?

People don’t pay attention to that. They’d much rather see a cornerback take an interception to the house or pass catcher turn on the burners during a 40-yard bomb. So year after year the Redskins used the precious few draft picks they held onto on glamour positions. And now the franchise is paying the price.

I, by no means, claim to be an NFL talent evaluator or scout. I’m simply a guy who has stood on the sidelines for six seasons now watching the Redskins up close and personal.

As best as I can tell, the Redskins currently have one and a half offensive linemen that they can build off of.

Obviously tackle Trent Williams, the team’s top pick in the 2010 draft, is a keeper. He’s had an up and down inaugural campaign as he’s been asked to take on some of the best pass rushers the NFL – Mario Williams, Ndamukong Suh and Jared Allen in particular had little trouble getting to the quarterback – has to offer, but it’s clear the kid has skill. The longer he’s around, the better he’ll be.

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You mean the lack of a running game doesn't have anything to do with Parker or Johnson?! Someone e-mail this to Mosley! :)

Great work, as always Murph!

Looking ahead to the draft, the Skins currently sit about the 14th pick. Assuming they pull 2 more wins out their arse (by no means a given!), a 7-9 record last year netted the 10-12 pick in the 1st round. We so desperately need interior lineman, and as usual, the top linemen are tackles. Do they take another tackle such as Anthony Costanzo? Or someone liek Akeem Ayers to pair with Orakpo on the defensive side?

Ideally, they would trade back for a Rodney Hudson and/or hope a Mike Pouncey or Steve Wisnewski falls to us in the 2nd? It's going to be a very interesting off-season. One I actually have some hope for!

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Bottom line is: we need to be patient and the FO rebuild this team in their image.

The biggest failure of Mike Shanahan in my opinion was his inability to manage expectations. He took over a four-win team. Had he come in, tempered expectations and admitted that there was a lot of work to be done before the Redskins can earn a seat back at the grown-up's table, I truly believe this season would have been much easier to stomach.

The reason the Capitals are treated like royalty is because the owner and the general manager have been completely open and honest since the day the decided to rebuild the franchise. Ted Leonsis calls it transparency, and says he owes it to paying customers to be upfront and honest.

Shanahan, it seems, is trying to win now and build for the future - but you can't really have it both ways. Don't try to slap a band-aid on a decade-long problem by signing Joey Galloway. Embrace the goodwill Redskins fans are showing you and do your best to get some youth in the lineup. At the same time, tell your fanbase that's what you're doing. Honesty goes a long way towards building that patience.

Instead, on the first day Shanahan took over the job, he thumbed his nose at the idea of rebuilding. Even went as far as to say he hates the word. Here's his direct quotes from his introductory press conference:

On if Redskins fans should brace for a rebuilding period:

“That’s always tough because I always hate to use the word rebuilding. I think any time you win four games that’s going to happen. People are going to talk about rebuilding and doing the things that it takes to be the best team possible. I’ve got very high standards just like everybody in this organization. I can’t tell you how long it’s going to take, but I can guarantee you one thing – we’ll get better every day and hopefully it won’t be long until we’re back to where this organization has been.”

On how much of a rebuilding process there will be along the offensive line:

“Well like I said, I’m going to have to evaluate that over the next few weeks and I’ll be able to give you a better answer after looking at all the film and talking to some of these guys. What we’re going to do is take a look at our personnel before we decide exactly what we will do offensively, defensively, and on special teams. That’s part of it. As we talked about before, we’ll be working hard every day to improve our talent level, to improve the competition so we can get back to where we’ve been.”

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The biggest failure of Mike Shanahan in my opinion was his inability to manage expectations. He took over a four-win team. Had he come in, tempered expectations and admitted that there was a lot of work to be done before the Redskins can earn a seat back at the grown-up's table, I truly believe this season would have been much easier to stomach.

The reason the Capitals are treated like royalty is because the owner and the general manager have been completely open and honest since the day the decided to rebuild the franchise. Ted Leonsis calls it transparency, and says he owes it to paying customers to be upfront and honest.

Shanahan, it seems, is trying to win now and build for the future - but you can't really have it both ways. Don't try to slap a band-aid on a decade-long problem by signing Joey Galloway. Embrace the goodwill Redskins fans are showing you and do your best to get some youth in the lineup. At the same time, tell your fanbase that's what you're doing. Honesty goes a long way towards building that patience.

Instead, on the first day Shanahan took over the job, he thumbed his nose at the idea of rebuilding. Even went as far as to say he hates the word. Here's his direct quotes from his introductory press conference:

On if Redskins fans should brace for a rebuilding period:

“That’s always tough because I always hate to use the word rebuilding. I think any time you win four games that’s going to happen. People are going to talk about rebuilding and doing the things that it takes to be the best team possible. I’ve got very high standards just like everybody in this organization. I can’t tell you how long it’s going to take, but I can guarantee you one thing – we’ll get better every day and hopefully it won’t be long until we’re back to where this organization has been.”

On how much of a rebuilding process there will be along the offensive line:

“Well like I said, I’m going to have to evaluate that over the next few weeks and I’ll be able to give you a better answer after looking at all the film and talking to some of these guys. What we’re going to do is take a look at our personnel before we decide exactly what we will do offensively, defensively, and on special teams. That’s part of it. As we talked about before, we’ll be working hard every day to improve our talent level, to improve the competition so we can get back to where we’ve been.”

You nailed it again, Murf. It's tough because Shanahan is a man with two Super Bowl rings, he doesn't want to rebuild. He thinks he can just come in and do his magic. This season he found out the hard way he can't do that, and there's a long way to go.

Now, in offseason I do expect them to make a concerted effort to get younger, I think we'll see a similar 'cut day' like we did last year with Ladell, Rock, Randle El, etc.

Assuming there's football next year, this coming offseason he'll have more to work with in terms of quality free agents, he'll have (a little) more draft picks than he has last year (with the expectation that he'll try and get as many as possible). And don't discount his ability to get quality undrafted free agents as he did this past year.

Ultimately 2010 was a year he thought he could band-aid, like you said, but he found out what happens when you do. The problem was much deeper than the last 2 years, it was a decade long problem that could not be fixed in 1 year. Fans were willing to give him time, but then he traded for McNabb and Jamaal Brown and essentially told the fans to get ready for some instant improvement, and while the team has improved from a year ago (not a difficult feat), this was still not a playoff team.

It'll take more time.

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Ultimately 2010 was a year he thought he could band-aid, like you said, but he found out what happens when you do. The problem was much deeper than the last 2 years, it was a decade long problem that could not be fixed in 1 year. Fans were willing to give him time, but then he traded for McNabb and Jamaal Brown and essentially told the fans to get ready for some instant improvement, and while the team has improved from a year ago (not a difficult feat), this was still not a playoff team.

This is the only thing I think I disagree with. I think we're more improved over last year, but our level of competition is much, much higher this year. This year's team under Shannahan, with last year's schedule, makes the playoffs. We were utterly atrocious with a cake walk schedule and still managed to win just 4 games. Last year's team, playing this years schedule? I really believe we would be picking #1 overall.

---------- Post added December-2nd-2010 at 09:47 AM ----------

This offensive line is FUGLY.

Rabach gets blown up every time he plays. I'm not sure if he's regressed or if he has a nagging injury but every game he looks over matched.

I would be all for keeping him on as a backup to a young center. I think Rabach knows what he is doing, is tougher than nails, and would be a great mentor. He just can't physically do it anymore.

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The biggest failure of Mike Shanahan in my opinion was his inability to manage expectations. He took over a four-win team. Had he come in, tempered expectations and admitted that there was a lot of work to be done before the Redskins can earn a seat back at the grown-up's table, I truly believe this season would have been much easier to stomach.

I understand that line of thinking, but how often do NFL teams truly admit that they aren't going to be competitive? I understand that, with lowered expectations, sitting at 4-4 at the bye and 5-5 in late-November would have looked great. But, many of us still believe that looks great because we realized that this team wasn't going to win a division this year. However, I don't expect the coaches or the GM to state that. How can you say that and then stand up in front of your players and attempt to get the best out of them week in and week out? I'd be shocked if Shanahan truly believed we'd win more than 8 games this season. Shocked.

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I think you've hit the nail on the head here and I really hope Shanahan recognizes this, takes it to heart and if I had to pick from the two, I'd say I hope he really plans accordingly to rebuild/retool the roster. It would be nice to have that and complete honesty like, as you said, Ted Leonsis gives his fans. I think you're exactly right that fans right now would still be a little excited if Shanahan had been a little more honest at the onset but instead we were all thinking division title - of course a win over a hyped Dallas team week 1 in which we only gave up one score definitely didn't hurt to have us all thinking championship!

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good article. But I would add that there's three things wrong with this team (Oline, Dline, lack of playmakers on offense). When you look around the league, compared to the Skins, we resemble something to the effect of the football version of the D-league.

---------- Post added December-2nd-2010 at 11:07 AM ----------

All we can hope for is that we are able to trade down with our 1st and 2nd round picks this year to aquire additional picks. From what i keep hearing, the '11 draft class is supposed to be loaded with talent. It would be nice to see what we can do there.

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Ultimately 2010 was a year he thought he could band-aid, like you said, but he found out what happens when you do. The problem was much deeper than the last 2 years, it was a decade long problem that could not be fixed in 1 year. Fans were willing to give him time, but then he traded for McNabb and Jamaal Brown and essentially told the fans to get ready for some instant improvement, and while the team has improved from a year ago (not a difficult feat), this was still not a playoff team.

It'll take more time.

Actually, it isn't a decade-long problem. Gibbs actually put together a good team. Problem is, he did it by sacrificing the future and the lack of draft picks from the trades he made finally caught up with us under Zorn. Vinny tried to stem the tide by collecting more draft picks, but he failed to bring in the talent necessary.

Unfortunately, I think Shanahan compounded things by trading for McNabb. I thought at the time that it was a big mistake to do that, and I still stand by that. Not only does it deny the reality that we would be fortunate if the OL was decent, it also sets expectations whether you want to or not. Trading two high picks for an aging QB can't be looked at as anything but a win now move, no matter what is said. Course, Shanahan didn't do much to calm that down by saying that fans shouldn't lower their expectations.

Course, we now are still looking at a draft next year where we yet again are missing picks in the middle of the draft. It is what got us into this hole in the first place and unfortunately, it hasn't changed with the new regime.

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I understand that line of thinking, but how often do NFL teams truly admit that they aren't going to be competitive? I understand that, with lowered expectations, sitting at 4-4 at the bye and 5-5 in late-November would have looked great. But, many of us still believe that looks great because we realized that this team wasn't going to win a division this year. However, I don't expect the coaches or the GM to state that. How can you say that and then stand up in front of your players and attempt to get the best out of them week in and week out? I'd be shocked if Shanahan truly believed we'd win more than 8 games this season. Shocked.

Okay, fine. We can agree to disagree on Shanahan's initial comments at his introductory press conference, but the problem with your argument is the team could still rebuild without Shanahan ever have to say a word. The Eagles got rid of McNabb, Westbrook and everyone else over the age of 30 and are already back in good shape for the foreseeable. Teams like Tampa Bay and Kansas City also opted to fully embrace a youth movement in the last few years and, related news, both are currently 7-4. All Shanahan did was delay the inevitable a year because he thought he could work some sort of magic with an over-the-hill roster.

Actually, it isn't a decade-long problem. Gibbs actually put together a good team. Problem is, he did it by sacrificing the future and the lack of draft picks from the trades he made finally caught up with us under Zorn. Vinny tried to stem the tide by collecting more draft picks, but he failed to bring in the talent necessary.

Unfortunately, I think Shanahan compounded things by trading for McNabb. I thought at the time that it was a big mistake to do that, and I still stand by that. Not only does it deny the reality that we would be fortunate if the OL was decent, it also sets expectations whether you want to or not. Trading two high picks for an aging QB can't be looked at as anything but a win now move, no matter what is said. Course, Shanahan didn't do much to calm that down by saying that fans shouldn't lower their expectations.

Course, we now are still looking at a draft next year where we yet again are missing picks in the middle of the draft. It is what got us into this hole in the first place and unfortunately, it hasn't changed with the new regime.

Vinny tried to collect more draft picks? Um ... when? Where were the rest of us?

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The biggest failure of Mike Shanahan in my opinion was his inability to manage expectations. He took over a four-win team. Had he come in, tempered expectations and admitted that there was a lot of work to be done before the Redskins can earn a seat back at the grown-up's table, I truly believe this season would have been much easier to stomach.

The reason the Capitals are treated like royalty is because the owner and the general manager have been completely open and honest since the day the decided to rebuild the franchise. Ted Leonsis calls it transparency, and says he owes it to paying customers to be upfront and honest.

Shanahan, it seems, is trying to win now and build for the future - but you can't really have it both ways. Don't try to slap a band-aid on a decade-long problem by signing Joey Galloway. Embrace the goodwill Redskins fans are showing you and do your best to get some youth in the lineup. At the same time, tell your fanbase that's what you're doing. Honesty goes a long way towards building that patience.

Instead, on the first day Shanahan took over the job, he thumbed his nose at the idea of rebuilding. Even went as far as to say he hates the word. Here's his direct quotes from his introductory press conference:

On if Redskins fans should brace for a rebuilding period:

I agree for the most part with what you are saying. But, when you look at the situation, he was really stuck in an awkward predictament.

-Last year the team was 4-12 and needed to improve (not only the record, but the culture of the team).

-He recognized that he couldn't improve by any measure with JC at the helm, so he felt compelled to seek after the best available option to replace JC (McNabb).

-Due to the status of the labor agreements, the 2010 FA class was futile. Thus he wasn't able to acquire young, desirable, talent to supplement the roster.

-He didn't have enough draft picks to address all of the holes on the roster. BTW, trading away this year's 2nd for McNabb didn't help either (but i guess he had to do what he had to do). Plus we already used our 3rd for Jarmon.

*I think there are many more other ways to look at the situation of last offseason, but one thing is for sure, THIS IS NOT HIS KIND OF TEAM. As a matter of fact, i'm willing to believe that there will be another roster purge similar to what we saw last March on the eve of FA.

-Portis

-Sellers

-Rabach

-Carlos

-Daniels

-Rocky

-Heyer

-Moss (if he decides he wants to sign a lucrative contract)

-Haynesworth

-Golston

-Holliday

-Hicks

I wouldn't be surprised if non of these players return, even Fletcher, as much as i like him.

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Actually, it isn't a decade-long problem. Gibbs actually put together a good team. Problem is, he did it by sacrificing the future and the lack of draft picks from the trades he made finally caught up with us under Zorn. Vinny tried to stem the tide by collecting more draft picks, but he failed to bring in the talent necessary.

Unfortunately, I think Shanahan compounded things by trading for McNabb. I thought at the time that it was a big mistake to do that, and I still stand by that. Not only does it deny the reality that we would be fortunate if the OL was decent, it also sets expectations whether you want to or not. Trading two high picks for an aging QB can't be looked at as anything but a win now move, no matter what is said. Course, Shanahan didn't do much to calm that down by saying that fans shouldn't lower their expectations.

Course, we now are still looking at a draft next year where we yet again are missing picks in the middle of the draft. It is what got us into this hole in the first place and unfortunately, it hasn't changed with the new regime.

You had to make the McNabb deal happen. Too much value for too little cost. What were you going to do otherwise? We're then talking Sam Bradford (if they could pull it off), Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, or someone like that. In other words, forget about Trent Williams most likely.

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great write-up as usual Murph ... can't say i disagree with anything ... already looking forward to next year's draft. We'd be much closer to being back where we need to be if Shanny hadn't decided that we needed to completely overhaul the defense. I do see them in a lot of 43 looks as of late. And in my uneducated opinion it's not about the system, its about how you use the players you have. It's hard to grasp when you see teams like the Giants and Eagles have consistent success with their defenses and they run the 4-3. It's not about systems, again, it's about how you use the talent you have ... you can't look at a Greg Blache 43 defense and say "well we just can;t get enough turnovers in this system" ... I think that's a cop out and a more direct result of his lack of aggressiveness. Greg Williams defense doens't have problems creating turnovers in a 43.

One other thing that bothered me was that Big Al didn't get into the game till like the 2nd quarter. When he was in there he seemed to blow them up and get some good pressure on Favre and Co. Why are we still dealing with Big Al this way? Why is he not in there from the start.?

Like you said, if expectations were tempered a bit better this would be easier to stomach. I think the biggest part about rebuilding is that as a fan, we can accept that we are less talented that many other teams and accept the losing. But those team like the Bucs, Lions, Rams, etc. .... while their records may not be much better than ours. They are improving as the season goes on ... whereas we are regressing (seems like every year). This is what is most frustrating to me. It's not that we beat Dallas on a holding call. It's that we hit our peak in weeks 3-6 every year ... then all of the injuries to all of our old bodies starts to add up, and we are left with nothing in the cupboard as far as depth.

HAIL to a new CBA and next year's draft!

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Unfortunately, I think Shanahan compounded things by trading for McNabb. I thought at the time that it was a big mistake to do that, and I still stand by that. Not only does it deny the reality that we would be fortunate if the OL was decent, it also sets expectations whether you want to or not. Trading two high picks for an aging QB can't be looked at as anything but a win now move, no matter what is said. Course, Shanahan didn't do much to calm that down by saying that fans shouldn't lower their expectations.

Course, we now are still looking at a draft next year where we yet again are missing picks in the middle of the draft. It is what got us into this hole in the first place and unfortunately, it hasn't changed with the new regime.

In regards for McNabb, what else was he going to do? We know he could have any amount of success with Jason. And as mentioned before, the FA class were slim pickings, and absolutely NOTHING available as for as starting QBs. The only mistake i think they made was trading for Brown. Not that i think he's a bad player, but that they took a gamble on a player coming off of season ending hip surgery.

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That's my boy, that murf guy, I follow him on the twitter, and tweet him occasionally, no responses! Lol.

It's okay, he's big time, I'm not. I understand hah.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

But yeah, in regards to the "Vinny collected draft picks", Longshot was referring to everyone's favorite draft class, the 2008 class ;). You know, the one that yielded a backup tightend, a wide receiver that was cut, and the other that has injury problems.

And oh yeah, a safety with tackling issues, another safety who has injury problems, a corner who got traded, a lineman that got cut, a QB who is no longer in the NFL, and a punter that should have never been drafted.

That hurt to describe.

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I'm hoping that this team can somehow grab another OL starter and a QB to groom for the future in this draft. That plus some smart FA moves (more OL, DL, and WR help) would make me thrilled going into year 2. There would be a nice, comfortable feeling of patience if we had a young QB learning the Shanahan system in the background.

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Murphy: ...Let’s be honest – what we’re seeing has nothing to do with the team lining up against Washington week in and week out. No, everything wrong with the burgundy and gold comes down one glaring weakness – the offensive line.

Look, it’s no secret that the former regime openly neglected the offensive line. Why draft a guard when a receiver or safety is still on the board? People don’t buy jerseys of offensive linemen, so why even bother?

Skill positions are much more enjoyable to watch film of, so it was easy for Vinny Cerrato to pause his Saturday morning cartoons to watch highlights of a raw Michigan State receiver tearing up the Big 10. I mean, doesn’t that sound way more fun than watching two fat bodies do battle in the trenches?...

When you say that "everything wrong with the burgundy and gold comes down one glaring weakness – the offensive line," you are guilty of overstatement. If you had said that the O-line is the weakest unit on a team that doesn't have a strong unit, I would agree.

If your overstatement had been the only flaw in your argument, I would not have bothered to reply. My main criticism with your piece is that you decided to place blame for the O-line problem on Vinny Cerrato when it belongs to Joe Gibbs. While I think that Joe is a great guy and Vinny's a weasel, fairness dictates that I defend Vinny in this case.

When Gibbs came back in 2004, he identified the O-line as its strongest unit. He reaffirmed that position again late in the 2005 season when Portis's running propelled the team into the playoffs. In December of 2007, I authored a thread predicting that the O-line would be our weakest unit in 2008 because of the age and injury history of the linemen. Most posters agreed with me, but there were some who debated the idea.

For three drafts, 2004-5-6, Joe Gibbs traded draft picks for vets and got little in return. Joe neglected the O-line in the draft BECAUSE it was his strongest unit at the time. The truth is that Vinny passed over just one highly rated O-lineman in his two years in charge of the draft. He passed on Oher to draft Orakpo. I would have done the same.

Trading draft picks for vets is a win-now policy. That failed policy (2004-6) caused the O-line weakness. Trading draft picks for Brown and McNabb last offseason continued that flawed policy.

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great write-up as usual Murph ... can't say i disagree with anything ... already looking forward to next year's draft. We'd be much closer to being back where we need to be if Shanny hadn't decided that we needed to completely overhaul the defense. I do see them in a lot of 43 looks as of late. And in my uneducated opinion it's not about the system, its about how you use the players you have. It's hard to grasp when you see teams like the Giants and Eagles have consistent success with their defenses and they run the 4-3. It's not about systems, again, it's about how you use the talent you have ... you can't look at a Greg Blache 43 defense and say "well we just can;t get enough turnovers in this system" ... I think that's a cop out and a more direct result of his lack of aggressiveness. Greg Williams defense doens't have problems creating turnovers in a 43.

Bro. i think you got it!!!!! This is a thing that i rarely see others admit to. For the past several games we've been running ALOT of 4-3, we are still bad on defense. But then as you've said, When you look at the Giants, Eagles, Ravens....(Those consistantly good/great defensive units) they always appear to stay the course because of personel. Speaking of the Ravens they've had multiple coordinators and schemes, yet they still remained at or near the top of the league year in and year out.

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