The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Destino]

Just now, Hersh said:

 

Would you attach a draft pick to the Wall contract and dangle him to the Knicks? They have the cap space. 

Only as a last resort.  If he comes back and plays like a star I think the Knicks or some loser would trade us a pick.  Remember some teams are starved for stars and they need a reason for fans to show up.  If Wall plays well, someone will want him.

[Hersh]

16 minutes ago, Destino said:

Only as a last resort.  If he comes back and plays like a star I think the Knicks or some loser would trade us a pick.  Remember some teams are starved for stars and they need a reason for fans to show up.  If Wall plays well, someone will want him.

 

I would definitely offer up Wall to the knicks without a pick first, but I figure most teams are going to be hesitant given the injuries. 

[philibusters]

You never know but I just cannot see any team trading Wall unless we do a heck of a lot to sweeten the deal.  Wall set to make 41 million this upcoming season, 44 million in 20-21, and 47 million in 21-22.   

 

Its not a 25 million a year contract you are trying to trade.  You are trying to trade the fourth highest paid player in the league... https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/players.html  If I am an owner, unless the Wizards are paying a good portion of that, I am not touching Wall.  There is no way his star power is enough to bring in 130 million extra over 3 years, he is going to lose you money and not help you win.  Wall is untradeable.  

 

Even when Wall was in his prime averaging 23 ppg and 8 assists per game, his scoring was inefficient enough that he wasn't worth that money.   Given all the injuries the odds that he can be the same player he was in his prime is very small.   The Wizards I think can hope that he is a 19 ppg 8 apg type player and that gets them to the 6th, 7th, or 8th seed.

 

It was a bad contract, before the injuries, when the Wizards thought the salary cap would be going higher than it did.

 

In fairness to Wall he has been a good teammate and excellent ambassador to the city.  I think he is a good guy.   And before the injury he was a heck of a player (though more like top 30 than top 10 player).  

 

I don't see how the Wizards realistically rebuild in the next couple years.  I think maybe the realistic avenue is you try to make the team as good in the short term as possible so they make the playoffs (albeit probably as a 6th, 7th, or 8th seed) and then look to rebuild in a couple years when you are not buried under Wall's contract.

Edited October 29, 2020 by philibusters

[Hersh]

I generally agree that Wall is nearly untradable, but the Wiz can take back some contracts. Easy to bring back about $45 million in contracts from the Knicks spread over two years depending on how they want to build. 

 

Another team that might be really interested in Wall and in desperate need of star power, the Charlotte Hornets. Wall and Wagner for Batum and Rozier. Save $25 million for 2021-22 and $47 million in 2022-23. 

 

Really, if Wall is traded, Beal probably goes too. There would probably be a good bidding war for Beal. 

 

For Beal, I'd call up Minnesota and start with the number 1 pick, plus Jarrett Culver and James Johnson (for salary cap purposes) plus another 1st rounder next draft minimum. 

 

None of this will happen and the Wiz will settle in for about a .500 record and lose in 6 in the first round. 

[Dont Taze Me Bro]

LOL John Wall.........he's ****ing done.  Pray to the Knicks god they take him and him and his horrible contract.   Mofu is done.  

[abdcskins]

3 hours ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

Gary was squeaky clean.  He never cheated.  The Rudy Gay recruiting was really shady.  The Post did a remarkable 3 part series on why MD fell off after the title.  Basically, Gary refused to play the game.  He chose Gilchrist over Deron Williams.  Obviously bad in hindsight, but Gilchrist was really good and led them to the ACC tournament win.  Its not like he sucked.  

 

 

 

 

Oh for sure Gilchrist was great. Should have stayed for his senior year though (like a lot of players). I remember that ACC tournament win, that was magnificent.

Edited October 29, 2020 by abdcskins

[Going Commando]

5 hours ago, Hersh said:

For Beal, I'd call up Minnesota and start with the number 1 pick, plus Jarrett Culver and James Johnson (for salary cap purposes) plus another 1st rounder next draft minimum. 

 

Your Wall and Beal trades are what the Wizards should do.  In the sober light of day, starting over with assets is the most likely path to improvement.  The only way they can break through their ceiling now is for Wall to beat the odds of an Achilles rupture, and that's not an actionable building plan.

 

What would you do with the #1 pick in this draft?  Use it?  Who would you pick, assuming Wall and Beal are gone?

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Your Wall and Beal trades are what the Wizards should do.  In the sober light of day, starting over with assets is the most likely path to improvement.  The only way they can break through their ceiling now is for Wall to beat the odds of an Achilles rupture, and that's not an actionable building plan.

 

What would you do with the #1 pick in this draft?  Use it?  Who would you pick, assuming Wall and Beal are gone?

James Wiseman....although in general, I hate this draft.

[philibusters]

I was looking at what could theoretically be a deal between the Knicks and Wizards for John Wall and I just don't see a deal.

 

If i was the Knicks front office even if you packaged Wall with the 9th overall pick I would pass because an average of 44 million of the next 3 years would completely hamper the Knicks ability to rebuild much like its hampering the Wizards ability to rebuild.   They would be locked out of the free agent amarket.  

 

I was looking for a bad contract on the Knicks in the ball park of 15 to 20 million dollars.  In that scenario we could take their 20 million dollar bad contract and they take Wall and our 9th pick.  They don't have any.  The only guy they are obligated to for that much money is Julius Randle and averaged 19ppg and 9 rpg so he is not a bad contract and they probably see him as part of the rebuild as he is only 25.  Without being able to take a smaller bad contract, I don't think a trade with Wall will work.

 

  If you really wanted to start the rebuild now, you would trade Beal.  However, that is dangerous.  Like say you traded Beal for a top 3 draft pick.  The problem you have is rookie deals in teh NBA are three years.  So the rookies deal would end at the same time Wall's deal ends and if the Wizards are going to be really bad, there is a real possibility the rookie just heads to a greener pasture.

[Hersh]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Your Wall and Beal trades are what the Wizards should do.  In the sober light of day, starting over with assets is the most likely path to improvement.  The only way they can break through their ceiling now is for Wall to beat the odds of an Achilles rupture, and that's not an actionable building plan.

 

What would you do with the #1 pick in this draft?  Use it?  Who would you pick, assuming Wall and Beal are gone?

 

I'm good with Wiseman, Tobin or Edwards. Probably go with whomever has the most potential on D as I'm not worried about their offensive games.  I would ask Charlotte is they wanted to trade up if I didn't have a consensus pick in the organization to pick up a future asset. I saw the CBS mock at Tyrese Haliburton at 9 whivh would give the Wiz a nice replacement for Wall and that would be solid foundation with loads of cap space within a year and another high draft pick. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Hersh

[Going Commando]

17 minutes ago, philibusters said:

If you really wanted to start the rebuild now, you would trade Beal.  However, that is dangerous.  Like say you traded Beal for a top 3 draft pick.  The problem you have is rookie deals in teh NBA are three years.  So the rookies deal would end at the same time Wall's deal ends and if the Wizards are going to be really bad, there is a real possibility the rookie just heads to a greener pasture.

 

Rookies hit RFA instead of UFA.  You can match any offer sheet they sign.  If you want to keep a rookie for a second contract, you can.  And as far as I know, no rookie has ever turned down a max extension offer from the team that drafted then.

 

The timeline of extensions isn't what I'd worry about in a full rebuild.  It's getting the draft pick a finding super stars with them.  It's incredibly tough.

[philibusters]

24 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Rookies hit RFA instead of UFA.  You can match any offer sheet they sign.  If you want to keep a rookie for a second contract, you can.  And as far as I know, no rookie has ever turned down a max extension offer from the team that drafted then.

 

The timeline of extensions isn't what I'd worry about in a full rebuild.  It's getting the draft pick a finding super stars with them.  It's incredibly tough.

 

I didn't realize that was how it worked, but that makes sense.

 

Like you said, though the part of the rebuild is hitting on your draft picks.   Since 2010 the Wizards have had 8 first rounders scattered throughout the first round.  This is what they have done:

 

1.  John Wall

2.  Lazar Hayward

3.  Jan Vesely

4.  Bradley Beal

5.  Otto Porter

6.  Jerian Grant

7.  Troy Brown

8.  Rua Hachimura

 

Their biggest hits have been early first rounders (Wall was the 1st overall pick, Beal the 4th, and Porter the 3rd).   Vesely is the only other lottery pick of the bunch (6h overall).  The other guys were all mid to late first rounders.  Hayward was the last pick of the first round.   So realistically you need high picks to build through the draft, hence why tanking is more common in the NBA than NFL.

 

If they keep the team together and barely get into the playoffs and get say the 15th or 16th pick, they are realistically looking at getting players like Troy Brown, Rua Hachimura, and Jerian Grant.   Okay role players, but not players you can build around around.

 

Comparing the WFT to the Wizards rebuild, I actually think its easier to rebuild the WFT in the next three years.   

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

Comparing the WFT to the Wizards rebuild, I actually think its easier to rebuild the WFT in the next three years. 

 

Definitely.  The NFL is the home of the rapid turnaround.  it takes four or five years for NBA draft picks to fully develop, then another couple before the special ones get championship good.  The only way to quickly turn around an NBA roster is to get lucky in free agency really.  And then have the assets to bring in disgruntled superstars in trades.

[Renegade7]

 

[philibusters]

One of the problems with having the 9th pick vs. say the 4th pick is there is so much more uncertainty about who will be available at your pick.  If we get Okungwo and hes our first choice that is great, but a lot of it is out of our hands.

[Going Commando]

We seem to be his floor in most of the mocks I've read, but several have him going earlier.  I like his skill set but the one concern I have is that his rebounding was inconsistent and it averaged out to be a little disappointing on the year.  Defense is easier when your rim protector is also a dominant glass cleaner, and I don't think that's him.  The ideal is getting a Rudy Gobert, unbelievable that he went so late in his draft.

[Going Commando]

I know this class is widely considered bad, but I kind of like some of the power forwards I've been perusing.  This was my read on the top players at the position:

 

1) Toppin - super explosive above the rim player with elite second bounce.  Very high cut looking athlete, but good upper body strength for playing through contact.  Good hands.  Fast.  Comfortable perimeter game.  Surprisingly confident handle.  He's got some Blake Griffin to his game except he's much lankier and doesn't rebound nearly as well.  If he rebounded and had a normal sized neck such that he measured 6'10 or 6'11 instead of 6'9, it kind of feels like he'd be the top player in the class.  He's got an NBA offensive game.

 

2) Okongwu - Also super explosive and second bounce looks elite.  Pretty strong for a 19 year old.  Rim protector tools.  Reasonably fast.  Hands look pretty good.  Paint-bound, which is a little bit of an issue since he gives up a ton of size compared to NBA fives.  He needs to either get a lot stronger or develop a face up game to cope, but neither of those should be out of reach for him.  He's going to get bullied on post ups too at first, so it may take time for him to become a legit good NBA PF/C but he's such an explosive athlete that he is a worthwhile project.

 

3) Jalen Smith - Not particularly explosive.  Below the rim player primarily with an ordinary looking first step, but he's quick and runs the floor well.  Very fluid looking game where he does pretty much everything on offense well.  Skinny looking, but with decent height and length for a 4/5 hybrid.  I think he might struggle with the size of NBA 5s though.  Looks like a high IQ player.  Boxes out regularly and rebounds well.  Has a team-friendly, efficient game but he's not the caliber of athlete that Toppin and Okongwu are, and he's probably getting dinged for being a jack of all trades, master of none type.

 

4) Achiuwa - Defensive specialist who was probably my favorite fit for us in particular because of this.  Very good strength for a college 4.  Elite motor.  Outstanding hips and feet, has no problem sliding and mirroring smalls after switches.  Length is pretty good and has great timing on his shot contests and defends without leaving the floor too much.  Smart rim protector more so than demonstrative shot blocker.  Respectable below the rim finishing game but he's definitely not the hyper explosive above the rim talent that Toppin and Okongwu are.  He's also got a very limited offensive game that doesn't have any face up element and only a small back to basket element.  He's not going to be much of an offensive player early in his career, but I think he's the best defensive player in the class this year.

[philibusters]

As a Maryland fan, I familar with Jalen Smith's game.   Jaeln Smith was a great Terp and will be a solid pro but not sure he has enough upside to justify taking him at 9.   I think Steve McQueen's take on Smith is pretty accurate.   He has a nice offensive skill.  Shot the ball well from 3 (32 for 87 as a sophomore which is 36.8%)  Shot 111 for 148 on free throws (75%).  He will play with the team on offense.  Willing passer.  He is a nice piece for a team.    On defense, he is not super athletic, but he plays good team defense.  Mark Turgeon, his college coach at Maryland, always has teams that are fundamentally sound on defense and rebounding.  That said, he thin (particularly in the lower body) and not super athletic so while he'll play good team defense and hustle he is not a player like Achiuwa that will upgrade your defense.

 

Comparing him to 3 other Maryland bigs who were drafted in the past 10 or so years.

 

1.  Bruno Fernando:   Jalen Smith does more things offensively than Bruno.  Bruno was just as good in the  post player as Smith, maybe a tad bit better and could shot 12 foot jumpers, but his offensive skill set was a lot less broad than Smith.  Jalen Smith has a better handle and outside shot than Bruno.  Bruno was a more athletic defender and probably brought a tad more on that end though they were both high effort guys on defense, Bruno was just a little thicker and stronger playing post defense.  Like Jalen Smith, Bruno was a mature guy who you wouldn't hesitate to bring onto a team.

 

2.   Diamond Stone:  Diamond Stone like Jalen Smith was a skilled beow the rim player, but the difference between Stone and Smith is the maturity.  Diamond Stone was only at Maryland for a year before he declared for the NBA and while he wasn't a bad kid, I think he frustrated those in the program with his immaturity.  It does not surprise me that he has been stuck in the developmental league.

 

3.   Jordan Williams:  He left after the 2010-2011 season after his junior year.  He also had maturity issues.   He was a really good back to the basket player and had the traditional big body, but he was only 6'7.  Despite being 3 inches shorter he was probably a better back to the basket player than Jalen Smith but his offensive skill set wasn't as diverse and he didn't play as hard within the team defense.   He still got drafted in the first round (but given that players like him are becoming less common, I doubt he would in 2020.)   I believe he in jail now for beating up a 15 year kid (drug related) though he might be out now.  I think he got like a year.   Like Stone he had maturity issues at Maryland 

 

4.  Alex Len at 7'0 was a traditional 5.  Honestly he was good not great at Maryland.  He got drafted more on potential than production because he wasn't anywhere near the 5th best player in college basketball his sophomore year (his last before he went pro).   

Edited November 1, 2020 by philibusters

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

 

[philibusters]

Just read an article about the Warriors cannot trade the second overall pick.  They offered it to the Wizards for Beal and to the Suns for Booker, but it s considered a weak draft and nobody is taking the bait.

[Going Commando]

People don't trust the top tier.  From what I've read, the concerns are that Wiseman can't play defense and Ball can't shoot and Toppin profiles like a tweener who will be defensively limited like a Blake Griffin type, except that Blake was a banger who could dominate the glass and Toppin doesn't rebound.  He's a face up forward that can also do some work in iso post ups.  The Israeli kid interests people but he's not the prospect Doncic was so he's a wild card.  Edwards can score but gives a team nothing defensively.

Edited November 6, 2020 by stevemcqueen1

[abdcskins]

Bruno was stronger and has better footwork/post moves than Jalen.  Jalen gets bodied rather easily.  I would get frustrated with his shot selection at times.  He is a better shooter and has much more range than Bruno though.  Quicker too.  I'd say he has a fairly high motor.  I definitely would not reach for him at 9.  

 

I've been over John Wall for a while now.  If we could trade him that would be fantastic, but I highly doubt anyone would do that.  What a horrible contract.  Maybe the worst ever for this franchise.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

 

[Going Commando]

I think we're going to have to let him go.  This is what we drafted Rui for.  Two offensive minded PFs is just too tough to cope with on D, and we should still have enough firepower to cope with the loss of one of them.  Trust Rui to get better and expand his range to the NBA line.

 

I'm feeling unusually optimistic about a potential turn around for the Wizards right now.  I think it's all of the Onyeka Okongwu projections we're getting.  He feels like the perfect fit of need and upside for us.  He's our chance to get Bam Adebayo and build a Miami-style team, and I'm praying he's still there at nine.

 

The other big move I want to see us make is get back into the first round for Precious Achiuwa.  If we can draft him and Okongwu, then we can build a defense.  Standard four big rotation of those two and Rui and Bryant = offensive and defensive versatility with a TON of energy.  Pair that with Troy Brown and you should be able to get stops and keep the ball moving around on the other end.  Keep the floor open and spaced and have enough ball handling to avoid Beal facing a lot of trapping.

 

The wild card is John.  If we build that foundation for defense in the front court, and John truly commits to defending, then he becomes very valuable again and we could go from a horrible defense to a powerful one and start competing.  Even if it's only for 50-60 games a year, if you're getting defense from him down the stretch, that changes the ceiling of the team.

 

And the other big factor with John is his off the ball play.  If he commits to being an asset away from the ball, then the line up flexibility will be good.  We'd have four quality shot creators and be able to spell Beal way more effectively, and then maybe Beal's defensive effort improves too without sacrificing our offensive potency.

 

John is probably never going to be what he was in 2017 again, but he can evolve into something between Goran Dragic and Jrue Holiday, and that would be championship level point guarding.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I think we're going to have to let him go.  This is what we drafted Rui for.  Two offensive minded PFs is just too tough to cope with on D, and we should still have enough firepower to cope with the loss of one of them.  Trust Rui to get better and expand his range to the NBA line.

 

 

I don't see why it has to be an either or situation.

 

The Wiz brass believes Rui is as a much a SF (or will eventually be) as he is a PF.