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BRAVEONAWARPATH

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Seems like there are multiple directions we can go with this pick that would make many, if not most, happy. So instead of that, here's my question:

Who at #3 would make you UNhappy?

Drummond.

I really think it's between MKG and Robinson. If MKG is gone at #2, there isn't any way Ted is going to let a DC native slip by. Robinson would help this team immensely.

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TRob should be the pick in a vacuum. He's the one who makes the most sense making no other significant acquisitions. Make some big moves and it could be Barnes.

---------- Post added June-3rd-2012 at 10:35 PM ----------

Beal at three is a big wasted opportunity. I wouldn't be thrilled about that pick. He's not a top three talent.

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TRob should be the pick in a vacuum. He's the one who makes the most sense making no other significant acquisitions. Make some big moves and it could be Barnes.

---------- Post added June-3rd-2012 at 10:35 PM ----------

Beal at three is a big wasted opportunity. I wouldn't be thrilled about that pick. He's not a top three talent.

Taking a SG that high is a bit of a reach, IMO. And I like Beal, too.

He's in my top-3, for now. But the more I think about it, the more I wouldn't mind Harrison Barnes as our 3rd option. For me, it's all about MKG and Robinson.

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Taking a SG that high is a bit of a reach, IMO. And I like Beal, too.

He's in my top-3, for now. But the more I think about it, the more I wouldn't mind Harrison Barnes as our 3rd option. For me, it's all about MKG and Robinson.

I watched a lot of Beal this season and I believe he's being overrated by ESPN. A SG who's a tad short for the position and doesn't create with the ball isn't a top three value period. Like Samuels said, not in any draft. The league is full of veteran FA spot shooting wings. Cartier Martins. What Beal does at a special level is rebound and hustle and he's also got a pretty strong frame and he's an above average athlete. That'd be terrific if he was a 6'9 or 6'10 forward. But as a 6'4 shooting guard, that does not increase his value enough to place him in the top three.

He's extremely projectable with a clear NBA position coming off a solid season for a freshman while the other SGs are coming off years where there were some struggles. I think that's why he's getting overrated. But he is not special. You can't take a SG that high if he's not special.

I liked Beal when he was under the radar and looking like a pick in the 8-14 range. I thought he could be a steal around there because he seems likely to have a successful NBA career and it's nice to find any sort of contribution in that range. But he's really bad value in the top three.

I agree about Barnes. I feel like people have swung too far the other way on him. He would be a more valuable pick at three than Beal. The shooting ability is about the same, he's more NBA ready, and he's a lot bigger with a bit of a front court mentality too. He does everything on the court at least at a fair level, some things he does very well. He's only slightly above average athletically, but he's got a high skill level as a shooter and passer. He understands how to play, understands how to move around the court. He defends pretty well, and he rebounds fairly well. Nothing blows you away, but his shooting ability projects to be really good at the next level and he's got a clear NBA role.

Barnes is a bit of a disappointment if he's the only acquisition we make. But if Barnes + a major FA move or trade leads to an offseason coup.

If you've got as many trade chips as we do, it doesn't make sense not to cash them in before their value is gone. Rashard probably needs to be traded. We'll have some redundant players after the draft. No point in keeping five forwards who have 0-2 years playing experience. Nene offers redundant value now that Seraphin has emerged with a very similar skillset. We should make a play for a major acquisition. Dwight should not be off our radar. We're stupid if we're not talking to the Magic about a deal. Doesn't mean we should make a deal now. But I'd like to hear we were at least in the conversation before the deadline.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wizards-insider/post/ted-leonsis-i-dont-want-to-be-in-the-lottery-anymore/2012/05/31/gJQAUHHT4U_blog.html

We won’t be trading the third pick in the draft. I think we have to potential to add two players in the draft. That would be nine players. We have Nene. We now have to figure out what to do with the other vet spots. Who are we going to trade? Who are we going to buyout? What are we going to do in the offseason with free agency. So it will be very, very busy. But fundamentally, the way we are going to get better is the young players are going to step up.

Hopefully he isn't BS'ing. Trade has to be Lewis, buyout or amnesty has to be Blatche. Both need to be off the team next year. With Lewis they can wait but his expiring contract is a great tool to take acquire a player from a team looking to shed salary. I hope Ted isn't cheap about this. It's a very valuable chip on the roster and can be a massive salary clearing tool for another team.

Edited by No Excuses
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Also meant to say that I agree RA, for me it's down to MKG and TRob as the best picks for us. But MKG is not NBA ready, his shooting ability limits his value for us tomorrow. TRob would make an immediate impact. He's the one I want for us to make that big impact in both the short and the long term. Plus when all other considerations are equal, his position makes him more valuable than MKG. It'd be so nice to get a beast of a power forward who rebounds and runs the floor and always plays in fifth gear. Throw in the fact that he actually has some handles and seems like he can develop a mid range face up game and he becomes extremely valuable. Put Wall and TRob together and start dealing some players to get a major upgrade at 2, 3, or 5. That'd be a really nice big 3.

I don't think Harrison Barnes will start to slip very far in the draft, but if he did, he'd be someone I would want us to trade back into the draft for. If we took TRob at 3 and Barnes made it to 6 or 7, I'd really try and trade for him. Draft picks start to get really low value at that point when the guys teams are in love with are all gone.

---------- Post added June-4th-2012 at 08:08 AM ----------

They will do everything they can to keep him. They aren't just going to give up on signing someone who was the centerpiece of the Chris Paul trade just because he didn't play many games there. Aminu plus the 10th pick sounds like a great haul for CP3...

Yes they are building a new era around Davis, but this isn't football like they are quarterbacks or something. They are two different players and NO wants to build around both of them. Plus, they just offered him a contract extension but Gordon wants to test FA. He's restricted so NO will match.

I doubt they plop down a max or near max contract on someone who only played 9 games for them last year. He hasn't been a factor for them. The trade was to get something back in return for Chris Paul rather than have him walk for nothing, not necessarily to go out and get Eric Gordon. I doubt the Hornets max him out or match a near max offer. Then again, I doubt anyone offers him that kind of money. He wouldn't be worth it.

I'm not convinced it's in their best interest to sink all of their cap money into Gordon for the next several years. Chris Kaman should be brought back and you've got to keep the deck clear four years from now to offer a max extension to Davis so you can't get into any long term entanglements right now.

If the Hornets offered him a 4 year 50 million dollar deal like the rumors suggest, then I have a hard time seeing anyone else beat that offer, assuming it's still on the table. The length of the contract might be a problem for Gordon, but the Hornets shouldn't go any longer. Especially not if they're paying him 12.5 million a year.

---------- Post added June-4th-2012 at 08:10 AM ----------

Also winning the Davis lottery significantly hurts Gordon's contract leverage with NO. They don't need to pay for him to be their franchise player any more. That 4 year, 50 million dollar extension was reportedly offered in January. His injury and the Davis lottery ticket probably lowers his price tag quite a bit.

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Drummond.

I really think it's between MKG and Robinson. If MKG is gone at #2, there isn't any way Ted is going to let a DC native slip by. Robinson would help this team immensely.

You think the Celtics or Lakers would pass on Drummond, potentially the center piece of a championship team in order to play it safe and get an immediate starter who may develop into a "good" starter who can contribute immeidately?.

Part of me says go safe with Robinson, we are the Wizards after all.. The other half of me says, keep swinging for the stars with Drummond; one of these days we are going to connect.

If I was Ted thouth, I would overhaul my organizations player development staff.... Or creat one because really it doesn't seem like one exists. Ernie finds these guys, but doesn't seem to be able to shepard them into being productive players. The coaches really are concerned with the games and productive players and are judged on W&L's. Seems like our young-uns are always left to their own devises, ridiculed in the press for being knuckle head 18 yo's, loose faith and confidence and ultimately slep out of town to the jeers and booing of our fans. This hasn't happenned once, or twice; this happens about every year.

That's not on the players; because it hasn't been just one player. That consistancy really points to our organization. It's the only think constant... I would hire a big named vet ( maybe Karem Abdul Jabbar who has been looking for an NBA job, and who is respected, thoughtful, and knows what it takes to be sucessful in this league; a true professional ) and have that guy work with Drummond and my developmental projects. I would dedicate 8-10 minutes of playing time a game to them; such that they would get that time weather they sucked or not.

I would commit the organization to developing them by creating a parrellel track for my 18-20 year olds, so my crusty vets don't destroy their confidence, so my coach with one leg out the door doesn't throw them to the wolves too early, so the organization can start to build the ability to develop great prospects into great players and good prospects into good ones.... If Kwame Brown had Karem to tutor him and deflect Jordan and Charles Oakly's mental and physical abuse, he would not have been a bust in the NBA. I've always believed that.

I think in the NBA anytime you can get a difference maker, you have to take that chance because the difference makers in this league just don't come around that often. The can't miss difference makers like Dunken come around even less. Your Organization must make the most of every opprotunity... Ours just hasn't done that.

Edited by JMS
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I just talked to a good friend who works at the arena. He said he is hearing rumors of a Rashard Lewis for Boozer deal. Chicago wants out of his contract. Offensively and on the glass thats a huge pickup if it happens.

Also said he has talked to bball FO members casually and they love Barnes and TRob.

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You think the Celtics or Lakers would pass on Drummond, potentially the center piece of a championship team in order to play it safe and get an immediate starter who may develop into a "good" starter who can contribute immeidately?.

Part of me says go safe with Robinson, we are the Wizards after all.. The other half of me says, keep swinging for the stars with Drummond; one of these days we are going to connect.

If I was Ted thouth, I would overhaul my organizations player development staff.... Or creat one because really it doesn't seem like one exists. Ernie finds these guys, but doesn't seem to be able to shepard them into being productive players. The coaches really are concerned with the games and productive players and are judged on W&L's. Seems like our young-uns are always left to their own devises, ridiculed in the press for being knuckle head 18 yo's, loose faith and confidence and ultimately slep out of town to the jeers and booing of our fans. This hasn't happenned once, or twice; this happens about every year.

That's not on the players; because it hasn't been just one player. That consistancy really points to our organization. It's the only think constant... I would hire a big named vet ( maybe Karem Abdul Jabbar who has been looking for an NBA job, and who is respected, thoughtful, and knows what it takes to be sucessful in this league; a true professional ) and have that guy work with Drummond and my developmental projects. I would dedicate 8-10 minutes of playing time a game to them; such that they would get that time weather they sucked or not.

I would commit the organization to developing them by creating a parrellel track for my 18-20 year olds, so my crusty vets don't destroy their confidence, so my coach with one leg out the door doesn't throw them to the wolves too early, so the organization can start to build the ability to develop great prospects into great players and good prospects into good ones.... If Kwame Brown had Karem to tutor him and deflect Jordan and Charles Oakly's mental and physical abuse, he would not have been a bust in the NBA. I've always believed that.

I think in the NBA anytime you can get a difference maker, you have to take that chance because the difference makers in this league just don't come around that often. The can't miss difference makers like Dunken come around even less. Your Organization must make the most of every opprotunity... Ours just hasn't done that.

We are NOT the Celtics or Lakers. Our situation is COMPLETELY different than them. If Drummond was being drafted into a vet-laden team which had the infrastructure to develop young talent, then DC would be ideal. With the NBA-ready talent available (yes, READY) between picks 1-5, passing on a sure-bet starter like MKG, Robinson, Beal, Barnes, etc would be foolish. We have holes to plug immediately, and the four guys that I mentioned above would be an instant upgrade to our rebuild.

*Samuels....if we trade for Boozer, what do you think that would mean for our draft? If we took him, I think we'd be looking at drafting a SF or SG. Top 3 would go MKG, Barnes, and Beal.

Taking a SG in the top-3 in today's NBA is like taking a RB in the top-5 in today's NFL. You can find value later on in the draft and I think it owuld be a waste

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wizards-insider/post/ted-leonsis-i-dont-want-to-be-in-the-lottery-anymore/2012/05/31/gJQAUHHT4U_blog.html

Hopefully he isn't BS'ing. Trade has to be Lewis, buyout or amnesty has to be Blatche. Both need to be off the team next year. With Lewis they can wait but his expiring contract is a great tool to take acquire a player from a team looking to shed salary. I hope Ted isn't cheap about this. It's a very valuable chip on the roster and can be a massive salary clearing tool for another team.

Nothing he said strikes me as BS because all of it plays out as the logical conclusion to arrive at.

Blatche needs to go. I can't see us arriving at a roster where he works for us.

But I don't know if we need to trade Shard and take back a big contract. Who are we going to trade him for? Might make more sense for us to use him to clear salary ourselves.

Our options will be limited if trade Shard. We might have to take back several smaller, bad deals as a way to level things out. I don't like that. We need to make sure that Singleton, Vesely, Booker, Seraphin, and Crawford all have secure roster spaces plus Nene, Wall, and the third pick are all a given. Getting back a bunch of unmovable nickels and dimes wouldn't be useful. We've already got to deal with Blatche's contract as is.

Here are some guys who break the 13 million threshold to look at.

1.) Dwight (19 million) - yeah this would be the ideal of all scenarios involving a Shard trade. They're going to want more than Shard's expiring deal in return though. Which means your'e probably throwing in a bunch of our young chips and/or draft picks for this. Or Nene and change. And Nene and change means we're trying to trade off some 35 million dollars in contracts. We'd have to take back half their roster and their bad contracts in return for that. It wouldn't be worth it. We'd be crippled with the same problems Orlando is facing right now. I do not want to take back Hedo Turkoglu's and Jason Richardson's contracts to get Dwight.

I don't see how a Dwight deal built around Shard's contract gets pulled off unless Orlando is incredibly desperate.

2.) Bosh (17.5 million) - not sure how available he is. But if the Heat wanted to dump salary to get workable depth, a Bosh for Shard deal would be the way to do it. I doubt it would take any other major pieces to pull this off. Bosh would be a good fit for us if we got a rebounder to pair with him. He and Nene/Seraphin don't rebound well enough to be our front court. Hell if you trade for Bosh, it'd make sense to draft TRob and just go big and play Bosh at SF. He'd be a better shooter than any other SF we'd have on the roster and we wouldn't sacrifice our ability to scrap in the paint. TRob is laterally quick enough to guard a lot of SFs.

3.) Pau Gasol (19 million) - Could be a solid option and he's clearly available for the right price. Would bring a lot offensively. But feels a bit like he duplicates too much of what Nene brings. Wouldn't be a bad move, but seems like we'd be treading water some. He's also a declining talent.

4.) LaMarcus Aldridge (13 million) - it'd be nice, but I don't see them dealing him at all.

5.) Zach Randolph (16.5 million) - doubt he's available. Also trading for him seems like asking for trouble. If I'm going to go after a streaky headcase, I'd honestly rather have the cap space to go after DeMarcus Cousins in a few years.

6.) Rudy Gay ( 16.5 million) - no thanks. Way too much money for what he brings to the table.

7.) Igoudala (14 million) - he'd be nice but he's only got a year left and it's a player option. I'd also expect Philly to keep him.

8.) No thanks to Paul Pierce (~17 million).

9.) And definitely no thanks to Amare Stoudemire (~20 million). Cap space would be more valuable than all of those guys. Amare would cripple our cap situation for years. Carmelo would be nice, but I can't see the Knicks dealing him at all.

10.) No to Joe Johnson (19.7 million) - his salary is horrifically bad and he's got four years left. The cap space would be better than him. He'd cripple us. Amare would be better than him. At least he has one year less on his deal.

11.) Danny Granger (13 million) - he'd also be nice but I have a hard time seeing Indiana deal him. They've got a good thing going right now. Also he's only got two years on his deal. It'd be a rental.

12.) Al Jefferson (15 million) - his deal is expiring too. Can't consider him without an extension or else it's a backwards move.

13.) Emeka Okafor (~13.5 million) - no thanks.

14.) Carlos Boozer (~15 million) - would be terrible. Luol Deng (13 million) wouldn't be the end of the world, but I don't know that he'd be available and he's only got two years on his deal.

15.) Both Andrew Bogut and David Lee (each about 13 million) would be bad deals. Bogut less so since he's only got two years on his deal. Again, the cap space would be better than either though.

16.) Kevin Love (13.6 million) - they're not dealing him.

17.) Dirk (~21 million) - they're not dealing him either.

--------------------

I'm not really seeing anyone to build a deal around Rashard with unless we take back a whole bunch of medium sized pieces. That's not appealing. I suppose it wouldn't be bad to get a couple of nice one or two year rental players like Granger or Iggy but I doubt their teams are dealing them. If we can't get a big name like Dwight or Bosh or Pau out of that kind of deal, I think we're best off just letting Shard's contract expire and taking the 23 million in cap space for ourselves.

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You think the Celtics or Lakers would pass on Drummond, potentially the center piece of a championship team in order to play it safe and get an immediate starter who may develop into a "good" starter who can contribute immeidately?

By the time Drummond is ready, Wall would be gone.

The team that should draft Drummond is Charlotte. They are going to suck for the next four years regardless of what happens in this draft. They have all the time in the world to take long-term projects.

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I just talked to a good friend who works at the arena. He said he is hearing rumors of a Rashard Lewis for Boozer deal. Chicago wants out of his contract. Offensively and on the glass thats a huge pickup if it happens.

Also said he has talked to bball FO members casually and they love Barnes and TRob.

Please no to Boozer. That would be a horrible deal.

Boozer has 3 years and about 16 million per on his contract.

Not only would that let Chicago off the hook and allow them to make a huge run at Dwight once he hits free agency and basically cement their foot on our throats from now until God knows when.

It'd tie up a ton of our cap space on a guy who does not offer that large an improvement over Booker moving forward. Boozer isn't that great any more and he's only getting older. We can't make this deal.

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Taking a SG in the top-3 in today's NBA is like taking a RB in the top-5 in today's NFL. You can find value later on in the draft and I think it owuld be a waste

If they are even thinking of taking Beal, they should drop back and take Lamb or Rivers. I just don't think any franchise can justify taking guards in the top three in two out of three years. One of them would have to be named Derrick Rose for that to make sense.

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But I do like to hear that TRob and Barnes are two of our favorite picks. Those two are probably the ones who make the most sense for the organization with the roster as is.

I doubt Drummond even becomes an issue for us in this draft. I assume he'll go second. If not, then I assume Charlotte will want to build around a guy like MKG. Either way, they'll want a young franchise type player with a lot of upside to be their centerpiece.

Point being, TRob should be there for us at 3. He's the pick that makes the most sense and I hope he's the one we'll take.

Unless we go out and do something foolish like trade for Boozer. Ugh. TRob plus cap space is better than Boozer plus Barnes.

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I just talked to a good friend who works at the arena. He said he is hearing rumors of a Rashard Lewis for Boozer deal. Chicago wants out of his contract. Offensively and on the glass thats a huge pickup if it happens.

Also said he has talked to bball FO members casually and they love Barnes and TRob.

I'd honestly rather go for Amare. Amare still has a chance to turn it around. He's been battling a lot of off court issues lately and maybe a change in scenery will help him.

Bring in Amare and save the amnesty. If he sucks, just amnesty him. But it's worth the risk imo.

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I just talked to a good friend who works at the arena. He said he is hearing rumors of a Rashard Lewis for Boozer deal. Chicago wants out of his contract. Offensively and on the glass thats a huge pickup if it happens.

Also said he has talked to bball FO members casually and they love Barnes and TRob.

Doesn't make much sense to swap Rashard for Boozer. It would be cheaper and more productive to just buyout Lewis.

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Boozer + Barnes + Nene + Wall is a team whose ceiling is probably about a fourth or fifth seed in the East and we'd have very limited avenues for improvement.

If we're making a deal with Shard's contract, we need to swing big. It's 23 million dollars in cap space. That's almost half your cap! We need to get a star back like Bosh, Pau, or Dwight. Or we need get a couple of valuable smaller pieces back in return for such a valuable chip.

Or we need to cash it in ourselves and use all of our payroll to take a risk on a gifted up and coming player like Eric Gordonm or make a run at someone like James Harden where their current team can't afford to match a big deal.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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I'd honestly rather go for Amare. Amare still has a chance to turn it around. He's been battling a lot of off court issues lately and maybe a change in scenery will help him.

Bring in Amare and save the amnesty. If he sucks, just amnesty him. But it's worth the risk imo.

That could be smart. But the only way I'd take Amare off of New York's hands would be if they took Blatche in return.

We'd be doing them a huge favor in a Shard for Amare swap. We'd be majorly letting them off the hook for their dumb ass cap management, giving Amare his deal and then amnestying Chauncey Billups when he only had two years on his deal... They'd owe something better in return.

---------- Post added June-4th-2012 at 10:29 AM ----------

It will be interesting if NO is willing to match a big contract offer to Eric Gordon. I think they will.

Their old offer of an extension in January was for 4 years and 12.5 million per. I have a hard time seeing anyone beat that offer for Gordon. If that deal is still on the table, then I don't really see NO getting any competition for him.

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I'd honestly rather go for Amare. Amare still has a chance to turn it around. He's been battling a lot of off court issues lately and maybe a change in scenery will help him.

Bring in Amare and save the amnesty. If he sucks, just amnesty him. But it's worth the risk imo.

NO!!!!

Amare is WASHED. On top of it all, his contract will be viewed as the WORST in the NBA as soon as Shard's is off the books.

I'd also say No to boozer as well. I don't get why we'd take on close to 30+ mil in salary JUST to dump Rashard (who expires 2 years earlier).

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That could be smart. But the only way I'd take Amare off of New York's hands would be if they took Blatche in return.

We'd be doing them a huge favor in a Shard for Amare swap. We'd be majorly letting them off the hook for their dumb ass cap management, giving Amare his deal and then amnestying Chauncey Billups when he only had two years on his deal... They'd owe something better in return.

Their old offer of an extension in January was for 4 years and 12.5 million per. I have a hard time seeing anyone beat that offer for Gordon. If that deal is still on the table, then I don't really see NO getting any competition for him.

That is possible.

Let's be honest, amnestying Blatche is a huge waste because he doesn't make a lot of money. It's really to just get him off the team. But the amnesty is meant for a contract that's destroying your cap freedom.

NY was dumb with their amnesty and used it on Billups. If we can pawn off Blatche and Lewis and take on Amare with the amnesty in hand, then we really have nothing to lose. I think Amare crumbled under the NY spot light.

---------- Post added June-4th-2012 at 10:33 AM ----------

Can't do that. You can't trade for a player and then amnesty him.

But NY did that with Billups?

And Orlando with Arenas?

Edited by No Excuses
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But NY did that with Billups?

And Orlando with Arenas?

The player has to have been on the team during the 2011-2012 season.

First year of the new CBA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap#Amnesty_clause

Each team is allowed to waive a player without having their salary count toward the salary cap or luxury tax. One player can be waived prior to the start of any season through 2015–16, but each team is restricted to one "amnestied" player during that time. Only players signed prior to 2011–12 are eligible
Edited by BRAVEONAWARPATH
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The problem with an Amare deal is the Knicks really have no other tradable assets to work with to incentivize a deal for us. Like I said before, I'm not making that deal unless they take back Blatche because I'm not going to get stuck with two players I will probably need to amnesty.

But the Knicks hardly have a team under contract for next year and their draft picks are lousy. My math isn't certain, but I don't think they have enough players under contract for next season to make up the 4-6 million dollars in salary short fall to make an Amare for Shard + Blatche trade work.

Shard's contract is for 23,790,000 next season. Blatche's is for 7,118,502. That's 30,908,502 million in salary we're trying to get rid of next year which would put any team over the luxury tax. My math could be wrong but I'm pretty sure the 125% + 100,000 rule means we need to take back at least 23,281,376.5 in salary. Seems pathetic, but I don't know if the Knicks can get there without signing some people first. Even still, they're not really going to want to gut every decent young cheap piece (like Shumper) they have in the process.

An Amare deal would be very hard to make work right now. We can't take on the risk of having both him and Blatche under contract.

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