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The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc


BRAVEONAWARPATH

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Any one of the Porter/Shabazz/Noel/Zeller/Bennett will make me happy. I feel like it HAS to be one of those 5 guys.

That is why I want us to try and get a second top 10 pick. I don't if it is just me, but it just feels like this draft will have more talented picks in the top 10 than the last couple of drafts.

That is assuming nobody goes back...

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Have you guys been checking NBA.com's rookie ladder? Beal is siting at #2. Behind Lillard and in front of Waiters. Harrison Barnes on the other hand has fallen out of the top ten. They update it a lot

Anthony Davis should probably be #1. His advanced metrics are fantastic and no other rookie playing starters minutes has better numbers. Andre Drummond does but he's playing role player minutes.

Davis's #s suggest he's a future superstar. The only thing putting a damper on his season are the injuries which have kept him out of a fair amount of games. Otherwise I think he would be the run away ROTY.

I think Lillard has been pretty good, but his ROTY campaign is fairly weak IMO. John had a better rookie season and he didn't win. Lillard is also older than John... And he came onto a team with a well established starting line up and an AS big man who has arguably been the best PF in the league this season. I think Lillard was accurately drafted. In three or four years, I doubt Lillard is considered one of the five best players in the class. I don't think he'll get substantially better than he already is.

---------- Post added March-2nd-2013 at 10:55 PM ----------

Any one of the Porter/Shabazz/Noel/Zeller/Bennett will make me happy. I feel like it HAS to be one of those 5 guys.

Yeah. Though, I'm not really feeling Bennett. I think I would take Porter ahead of him and I think Porter will be available when we pick. I think we end up picking 6th or 7th. At that spot, I'm guessing Noel and Zeller would be gone. Muhammad probably would be too, but you never know. That's a good range for Porter. I think when you factor in need, fit, and draft range, Porter is our guy.

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I think Lillard has been pretty good, but his ROTY campaign is fairly weak IMO. John had a better rookie season and he didn't win. Lillard is also older than John... And he came onto a team with a well established starting line up and an AS big man who has arguably been the best PF in the league this season. I think Lillard was accurately drafted. In three or four years, I doubt Lillard is considered one of the five best players in the class. I don't think he'll get substantially better than he already is.

You can't base one's ROY candidacy on what players before him did, you can only compare to what other rookies this year are doing. In that metric, Lillard has been the runaway favorite, he's had a little dip lately, but he's been a good bit better and more consistent than the other rooks.

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Anthony Davis should probably be #1. His advanced metrics are fantastic and no other rookie playing starters minutes has better numbers. Andre Drummond does but he's playing role player minutes.

Davis's #s suggest he's a future superstar. The only thing putting a damper on his season are the injuries which have kept him out of a fair amount of games. Otherwise I think he would be the run away ROTY.

I think Lillard has been pretty good, but his ROTY campaign is fairly weak IMO. John had a better rookie season and he didn't win. Lillard is also older than John... And he came onto a team with a well established starting line up and an AS big man who has arguably been the best PF in the league this season. I think Lillard was accurately drafted. In three or four years, I doubt Lillard is considered one of the five best players in the class. I don't think he'll get substantially better than he already is.

Scoring matters and per game matters more than any other measurement. Davis, with 12.5ppg, simply isn't putting up enough points to pass Lillard. Plus his minutes are down the last two months and his production per game as dropped as a result.

---------- Post added March-2nd-2013 at 11:32 PM ----------

According to Jim Boeheim, Otto is the best player in the country...and you know what?

He may be right.

Otto Porter vs Rutgers: 28pts, 8 boards, 3 ast, 3 Blk, 3 Stl.

Plus his name is Otto which would give the Wizards another unusual name to add to the collection. A front court of Otto, Nene, and Emeka. lol

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Scoring matters and per game matters more than any other measurement. Davis, with 12.5ppg, simply isn't putting up enough points to pass Lillard. Plus his minutes are down the last two months and his production per game as dropped as a result.

You're right. It does matter for these awards. But they shouldn't base it on just that. In an ideal world they would actually go deeper to try and find the best rookie who will go on to be the best player from the class, so that in five years, it doesn't seem stupid that Emeka Okafor won the award over Dwight Howard. I think that's what is going to happen this year. In 2004-2005 Dwight's advanced metrics suggested he was going to be a much, much better player than Okafor. Really they showed he already was. And that's eventually what happened. But Emeka played more MPG and scored 3.1 more PPG and won the award despite that being the only statistical category he led Dwight in.

Usually the NBA gets the ROTY award correct and they identify the best player in the class very early, although not always. 2009 was probably thrown off because of Tyreke's improbably good season and Blake Griffin's injury.

I see basically no chance that Lillard is considered the best player from this class in three years. Davis will be. And I expect Drummond and Beal to be substantially better than Lillard.

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I'm going:

1. Noel

2. Oladipo

3. Porter

4. McLemore

5. Zeller

Oladipo, to me, has freakish potential given his unique blend of high-level athleticism and BBIQ. With his 6-11 wingspan, he won't have problems playing SF.

If McLemore is sitting there when we pick though, we have to pick him.

I would avoid Shabazz. He seems like another guy who is going to put up empty numbers in the NBA - kind of like a rich man's Nick Young.

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If Odalipo can play SF I would take him even if we had the 1st overall selection, I think he is a complete beast and I love watching him, he will be a great player in the NBA. I also obviously like Otto Porter and would be excited to have him on board with us, I like his offensive game and of course the rebounds, which are very good considering he is about 19 years old. He could add some weight to his frame and beef up for the NBA but besides that he looks like a homerun pick.

Shabazz and Noel is where things get interesting. Shabazz is a volume scorer with I think a bit of a selfish/ego disposition to him, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Teams want a guy who wants the ball at the end of the game and they want a guy who can step up and also have unwavering confidence in himself, which describes Shabazz to a T (MJ and Kobe have the exact same mentality, it's what winners naturally possess). I wouldn't call Shabazz a chucker in the vein of Crawford or Young, because his FG% is pretty decent, especially from 3. I wouldn't be torn up about picking him since it would give this team a new found offensive game. I think Shabazz is a gamble, to be honest. He could be really good or really bad, in general.

Noel just tore an ACL, and he also needs to add strength to his frame because he is pretty lanky for his size right now. He has great potential and it is very rare to get a defensive big man with his skill set, even if he will never really be an offensive juggernaut.

My rankings for our short list would be:

1. Victor Oladipo

2. Otto Porter

3. Nerlens Noel

4. Shabazz Muhammad

5. Ben McLemore

6. Anthony Bennett

We shouldn't fall below 6th in the draft posistion.

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Wall is playing very under control tonight. No dumb mistakes. I love it. I just hope he doesn't try to do too much towards the end of the game, just like vs the Knicks.

Philly has been trying to guard Beal and Webster tight and it's opened up some really nice driving lanes for Wall.

It's so nice having wings that are a legit threat and force you to play some D on them.

Nice alley oop layup by Ves. This lineup is actually pretty good.

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Wall can beat most guys one on one to the rim even if they lay off him a bit. It's the big man and/or the weak side help that shuts him down. With Beal and Webster shooting so well it's worse to leave them open behind the 3 point line than lay off them so you can help stop the drive.

Next step is getting a really good scoring big man that can force that opposing center to guard him tight. Then you have to guard everyone and someone is going to get open and score.

Though that kind of construction seems really dependent on the PG's dribble penetration and ability to score one on one.

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