John Clayton ranks the QBs

[Chachie]

Not bad...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview10/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=5489176

The Golden Age of NFL Quarterbacks continues to evolve.

Bubble screens make it easier for quarterbacks to continue drives through the air. More talent is moving into the slot in three-receiver sets, giving quarterbacks even more passing options. The increased use of shotgun formations and no-huddle offenses gives quarterbacks more control than ever and turns fourth quarters into thrilling roller coaster rides.

For the past couple of years, I've preached how the league is divided into teams with elite quarterbacks and those without them. To win in this league, you must have an elite quarterback. Without one, the season can be long and frustrating.

In ranking the league's starting quarterbacks, I have three categories. The first is the Elite level, which includes quarterbacks who can carry teams into the playoffs. An elite quarterback is one who can complete better than 60 percent of his passes, has the potential to throw for 4,000 yards and has fourth-quarter comeback ability. I am criticized for putting Baltimore's Joe Flacco in this category with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, but he absolutely belongs. In two seasons, Flacco has the numbers (6,584 passing yards, 61 percent completion percentage) and three road playoff victories to back up my ranking. You'll probably be more interested in who I don't have in this group.

The next category is what I call the Chad Pennington Division. Pennington, a former starter who's now a backup with the Dolphins, doesn't have the strongest arm but he once was good enough to take a team to the playoffs with a good surrounding cast or a favorable schedule. The quarterbacks who fit this mold include Denver's Kyle Orton, who I think has a very small chance even now to end up in the elite group.

The third category I call the Hit-Or-Miss Division. It is filled with young QBs -- hello, Mark Sanchez and Kevin Kolb -- who easily could climb my ladder or veterans who have reached their ceiling (Jake Delhomme) and have no chance of moving up.

In the Pennington and Hit-Or-Miss divisions, I rate the chances those QBs have to reach elite status. Some have a greater chance than others because they have not reached their ceiling. Others (Alex Smith, Byron Leftwich) have hit their head on the ceiling and have no chance to reach elite status.

THE ELITE

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

Analysis: At 34, Manning doesn't show any signs of slowing. He sets the agenda for modern NFL quarterbacks with the no-huddle and three-receiver offenses and generates 12-win seasons as easily as he completes passes. Under Manning, the Colts have won 12 or more games for seven consecutive seasons.

Arrow is pointing: Up

2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Analysis: I resisted the urge to put Drew Brees ahead of him, but Brady, with three Super Bowl rings, is still the master. The knee injury slowed him a little in 2009 (4,398 yards, 28 TD passes), but I expect his numbers to be much better this season.

Arrow is pointing: Flat

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Analysis: The combination of Brees and Sean Payton is scary. Brees is a master at finding the open receiver, and Payton is one of the best playcallers in the business.

Arrow is pointing: Up

4. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Analysis: With two Super Bowl rings, Roethlisberger ranks with the elite of the elite quarterbacks in the league. His suspension is a wakeup call, but as a quarterback, he's almost impossible to stop when he rolls out of the pocket and when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter.

Arrow is pointing: Flat

5. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings

Analysis: It's amazing to think Favre had his best season at age 40. Even though he says this is his final year, Favre loves the game and can still play it at a high level.

Arrow is pointing: Slightly down

6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Analysis: This could be the season Rodgers passes Favre as the best quarterback in the NFC North. His arm is strong and he finally learned how to win games in the fourth quarter. Rodgers has had a scintillating preseason. (By the way, NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert and ESPN national columnist Gene Wojciechowski debate the merits of Rodgers and Favre here.)

Arrow is pointing: Up

7. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Analysis: He's the biggest reason the Chargers stay ahead of the other AFC West teams. A great leader, Rivers is fearless throwing to tight end Antonio Gates and other pass-catchers even when they appear to be covered.

Arrow is pointing: Up

8. Tony Romo sits to pee, Dallas Cowboys

Analysis: Now that Romo sits to pee has won a playoff game, watch out. The only thing that could prevent him and the Cowboys from playing host to a Super Bowl an aging offensive line faltering.

Arrow is pointing: Up

9. Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins

Analysis: Mike Shanahan offers McNabb play-action options he didn't have with the Eagles' pass-heavy offense. With McNabb at the helm, the Redskins could be one of the surprise teams in the NFC.

Arrow is pointing: Spinning as he adjusts to a new offense

10. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

Analysis: The additions of Terrell Owens, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley could allow Palmer to relive his 4,000-yard days. Marvin Lewis prefers running the ball, but Palmer would love for the Bengals' offense to open up.

Arrow is pointing: Up

11. Eli Manning, New York Giants

Analysis: Despite recording his first 4,000-yard passing season in 2009 and already owning a Super Bowl ring, Manning doesn't get the respect he is due. He lacks the fiery leadership of his brother, but he continues to improve each season.

Arrow is pointing: Flat

12. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Analysis: With the Ravens' problems in their secondary, Flacco may be asked to throw more, which is fine by him. Anquan Boldin will help him working from the slot and Donte' Stallworth could help to stretch the field on occasion when he returns from injury.

Arrow is pointing: Up

13. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Analysis: Like Flacco, Ryan should have a breakthrough season. Most top quarterbacks come into their own in their third season, and Ryan has studied every top quarterback trying to improve his game.

Arrow is pointing: Up

14. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Analysis: Schaub finally moved into the elite group by staying healthy and throwing for a league-high 4,770 yards in 2009. (By the way, that was 270 yards more than Peyton Manning had last season.) The next step for Schaub and the Texans? Win in the AFC South and make the playoffs for the first time.

Arrow is pointing: Up

(see link for other categories...)

[Mr. Sinister]

Elite shouldn't be a word that gets thrown around often, meaning that it should only apply to 3-5 QB's.To me, elite means that with this QB on your team, you would instanmtly be considered a title contender. Manning, Brees, and Brady are the obvious top 3, then I'd go with Rivers and Favre. Fell free to chew me out if you wish.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Note to John Clayton: If you're going to rate a QB who ranked 7th in passer rating (two years in a row) and 1st in yards as the 14th best QB in the league, you need to explain why you have him so low, not talk him up.

[ACW]

Elite shouldn't be a word that gets thrown around often, meaning that it should only apply to 3-5 QB's.To me, elite means that with this QB on your team, you would instanmtly be considered a title contender. Manning, Brees, and Brady are the obvious top 3, then I'd go with Rivers and Favre. Fell free to chew me out if you wish.

Elite: the three you mentioned and MAYBE Big Ben.

[darklight1216]

Note to John Clayton: If you're going to rate a QB who ranked 7th in passer rating (two years in a row) and 1st in yards as the 14th best QB in the league, you need to explain why you have him so low, not talk him up.

Schaub has played 16 games how many times in his career? With one winning season in seven years and no post-season experience to speak of, I'm not particulary bothered by his ranking though I wouldn't be offended if he were ranked higher either.

Elite shouldn't be a word that gets thrown around often, meaning that it should only apply to 3-5 QB's.To me, elite means that with this QB on your team, you would instanmtly be considered a title contender. Manning, Brees, and Brady are the obvious top 3, then I'd go with Rivers and Favre. Fell free to chew me out if you wish.

I agree. "Elite" denotes a top five quarterback, in my book, but whatever... If he wants to call nearly half of the league's starters "elite" that's fine. This still kind of resembles a free country.

[Chachie]

Elite shouldn't be a word that gets thrown around often, meaning that it should only apply to 3-5 QB's.To me, elite means that with this QB on your team, you would instanmtly be considered a title contender. Manning, Brees, and Brady are the obvious top 3, then I'd go with Rivers and Favre. Fell free to chew me out if you wish.

No chewing from me. I agree. I still think the article has merit though. I dig the system he used but you're right. He should have made the "elite" more elite.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Schaub has played 16 games how many times in his career? With one winning season in seven years and no post-season experience to speak of, I'm not particulary bothered by his ranking though I wouldn't be offended if he were ranked higher either.

He's been in the league 6 years, and in that time he's played 16 games exactly as many times as Donovan McNabb, if you want to go there. In spite of the fact that Schaub was a back-up for the first three of those seasons. He's thrown enough passes to qualify for the passing title 3 times, which is one more than Messrs. Rodgers, Flacco or Ryan, who each are ranked higher than Schaub on that list.

And if we're silly enough to judge QBs solely on thier teams' success, then I would question the lacking or miserable post-season resumes of Rodgers, Romo sits to pee, Palmer or Ryan, rather than Schaub who has led his team to a total 19-18 record in the toughest division in football.

In fact, I wonder how a supposedly knowledgable writer like Clayton can rank Palmer, who is 4 years removed from having a season as good as Schaub's worst as a starter, 4 spots higher. That just defies any kind of reason.

Still, if Clayton had used Schaub's two injury-shortened seasons, or lack of playoff appearances, as a basis for ranking him so low, that at least would have been something. But to simply rank such a statistically accomplished passer so low without providing justification is just crap writing. Which was my point in the first place.

[darklight1216]

He's been in the league 6 years, and in that time he's played 16 games exactly as many times as Donovan McNabb, if you want to go there. In spite of the fact that Schaub was a back-up for the first three of those seasons. He's thrown enough passes to qualify for the passing title 3 times, which is one more than Messrs. Rodgers, Flacco or Ryan, who each are ranked higher than Schaub on that list.

And if we're silly enough to judge QBs solely on thier teams' success, then I would question the lacking or miserable post-season resumes of Rodgers, Romo sits to pee, Palmer or Ryan, rather than Schaub who has led his team to a total 19-18 record in the toughest division in football.

In fact, I wonder how a supposedly knowledgable writer like Clayton can rank Palmer, who is 4 years removed from having a season as good as Schaub's worst as a starter, 4 spots higher. That just defies any kind of reason.

Still, if Clayton had used Schaub's two injury-shortened seasons, or lack of playoff appearances, as a basis for ranking him so low, that at least would have been something. But to simply rank such a statistically accomplished passer so low without providing justification is just crap writing. Which was my point in the first place.

My mistake, I prematurely counted this season... although I might still be able to say it after this year too.

The "toughest division in football" fielded two of the worst pass defenses in the league last year (and the best was 14th). Couple that with arguably the best receiver in the league and Schaub should put up good stats.

It's true that the players you mentioned don't have great post-season records, but I was emphasizing the fact that he hasn't even made it to the playoffs. Even the (other) porcelain passer who also plays in a tough division has done that more than once. The playoffs were one of Clayton's criteria, after all.

(Alot of people bristle at judging qbs by success, but it's not as though passing yards/tds/ints aren't affected by all of the other players on the field.)

I know that Schaub led the league in passing yards once, and that's all fine and well, but you could argue Schaub up or you could argue him down, as far as I'm concerned. He's not that special, he's not bad, it doesn't matter to me.

Clayton's reason for that rating might simply be that he thinks the other 13 are better.

[MusicCitySkin]

There are only three elite quarterbacks in my opinion, and they are Manning, Brady, and Brees. Guys that can lead teams to the big dance and win despite any shortcomings on the rest of the team. I don't count Rapelisberger because I think he relies on the talent around him for success. Last year kind of proved that.

I see potential elite status for Rodgers, Schaub, and Rivers, but they have to get to the big dance and prove they can win despite negatives on the rest of the team.

Below the elite class are the great ones. Favre, McNabb, and Rapelisberger. QBs that can succeed with enough of a supporting cast to go with them. Still fully capable to going all the way, just with some help. Definitely the next best thing to an elite QB.

[fsunoles0021]

Below the elite class are the great ones. Favre, McNabb, and Rapelisberger. QBs that can succeed with enough of a supporting cast to go with them. Still fully capable to going all the way, just with some help. Definitely the next best thing to an elite QB.

hahahaha McNabb!?!? This isn't 2004, sir. Those days are far behind him.

[Hubbs]

hahahaha McNabb!?!? This isn't 2004, sir. Those days are far behind him.

Yeah, he didn't go 10-4 last year and make the NFC Championship the year before that.

Oh wait...

[ExoDus84]

hahahaha McNabb!?!? This isn't 2004, sir. Those days are far behind him.

You fail as a troll, and as a football fan. You really think Mcnabb hasn't had success since 2004?

[HailGreen28]

You fail as a troll, and as a football fan. You really think Mcnabb hasn't had success since 2004?

To be fair, McNabb's probably on the downside of his career, and he's already hurt this preseason.

I am soooooo hoping he leads us to a surprise Superbowl victory though. Can you imagine the reaction of all Philly Eagle fans, if that happens?

[ExoDus84]

To be fair, McNabb's probably on the downside of his career, and he's already hurt this preseason.

I am soooooo hoping he leads us to a surprise Superbowl victory though. Can you imagine the reaction of all Philly Eagle fans, if that happens?

Man, that would be amazing. Not only because it would mean a skins superbowl, but the pure outrage and self-loathing in Philly would be incredible. I would seriously go to every eagles message board on the web and post a shiny picture of Mcnabb holding the lombardi in his skins uni. :evilg:

[pjfootballer]

Speaking of Eagle fans, where are they all? Haven't seen the regulars in here in a while.

[Potato Sack]

I'm ok with that list, with the exception of where Phillip Rivers ranks. He should be higher.

[TheItalianStallion]

:laugh: @ Matt Ryan being "elite." This is a guy whose career best yardage is around 3,400. Regarding the bit where the 3rd year is the "breakout year," not only did Ryan not really improve over his 2008 performance, he actually looked worse in some respects. He definetely has potential, but at this stage in his career, he's proven 2 things: Jack and :pooh:

[Rufus T Firefly]

My mistake, I prematurely counted this season... although I might still be able to say it after this year too.

The "toughest division in football" fielded two of the worst pass defenses in the league last year (and the best was 14th). Couple that with arguably the best receiver in the league and Schaub should put up good stats.

It's true that the players you mentioned don't have great post-season records, but I was emphasizing the fact that he hasn't even made it to the playoffs. Even the (other) porcelain passer who also plays in a tough division has done that more than once. The playoffs were one of Clayton's criteria, after all.

(Alot of people bristle at judging qbs by success, but it's not as though passing yards/tds/ints aren't affected by all of the other players on the field.)

I know that Schaub led the league in passing yards once, and that's all fine and well, but you could argue Schaub up or you could argue him down, as far as I'm concerned. He's not that special, he's not bad, it doesn't matter to me.

Clayton's reason for that rating might simply be that he thinks the other 13 are better.

The stat about pass defenses is a but cherry-picked. The division had 2 top 10 pass Ds in each of Schaub's first two years in the division. And the point was about how good the division has been, with the clear best team in football over that stretch, the 13-3 Titans and a year where Houston's 8-8 was only good enough for last place.

Yeah, he has Andre Johnson, plus the good (when healthy) Owen Daniels. But he also has no support from the running game, a mediocre O-Line and no other receivers of any note.

Schaub has a winnig record in Houston. Considering his defense didn't make the top 20 in two of his three years there, same with his running game, that's pretty impressive. To judge solely by their teams' W-L record, and then to use the arbitrary cutoff of playoffs or not, would be the ultimate in shallow, logic-impaired reasoning.

Again, to use the Palmer comparison. He's not been in Schaub's statistical league as a passer for the last several years. And he has a worse W-L record. But, for one year, he got one more win than Schaub (thanks to a top 10 rushing attack and defense). That one win luckily got him into the playoffs, where he promptly lays an egg. That justifies him being 4 spots higher? Ridiculous.

And, one more time, my point was about Clayton's writing. We can guess and argue at his reasons, but we shouldn't have to. If you're going to do something counter-intuitive like say the guy who led the league in passing yards is the 14th best QB, you say WHY. That is basic, and I would expect it from a first year journalism student. For a supposed Hall of Fame caliber reporter like Clayton, it's terrible writing.

[darklight1216]

^ Palmer is definitely over-rated, but profootballreference has his w/l record at 42-39. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PalmCa00/splits/

It's not amazing (nothing about Palmer is) but that's a little better than the 19-18 record that you said Schaub has in his division. That is, of course, if PFR is correct and they might not be...

[Rufus T Firefly]

^ Palmer is definitely over-rated, but profootballreference has his w/l record at 42-39. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PalmCa00/splits/

It's not amazing (nothing about Palmer is) but that's a little better than the 19-18 record that you said Schaub has in his division. That is, of course, if PFR is correct and they might not be...

I was referring to just the three year period where Schaub has been a starter. In that time, he is 19-17, Palmer is 17-19.