deejaydana Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I know everyone is going to be raving that the Jets/Steelers will be a really low scoring affair. I'm putting $150 on the over (38.5) as I see both teams putting up some points just like in the Ravens/Steelers game this past weekend. The defenses will wear down and give up some ground come the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deejaydana Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Jets/Steelers game just changed to Pitts -4. May have to take the road team. I don't see how this is anything but a really close game. Will see what happens during the week. The money line for the Pack is now -190 (insane). You could risk $950 to win $500. Time to pull out the parlays bettors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ill probably take that moneyline on green bay anyways. I just dont like the line. Jets moneyline might get a look as well, although im reticent to bet on both road team, and both 6 seeds no less. For me i think im going to have to take pitt/gb or bears/jets. I just cant see both road teams winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyLight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Took both teams that won yesterday and just played the overs in both games today. F-u man, I can't believe I passed the overs AND had the complete misread on ATL. Week 2: 2-1 -$165 Total: 5-2 +$320 Thinking about a mortgage payment on the Bears +3.5 and a car payment on the ML, thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deejaydana Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'd like to hear some of the seasoned bettors on here on how to approach this if you don't like the spreads. The additional .5 of a pt is just huge in each of these games. I'm thinking of doing parlays only on bets on just the first half pt totals. Any other suggestions? (and thanks for the input already illone AND congrats on last weekend, we both cleaned up but you had the stones to throw down more than I did). Still, 4-0 feels damned good by the close of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jthor99 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like Pittsburgh and the over. And still researching the GB/Chicago. Cutler's numbers in the "big games" are actually pretty decent from what Colin Cowherd pointed out today. I like GB because I think they will force Cutler into some bad reads, but Green Bay just reminds be a lot of the Saints last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyLight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .5 is huge....but never buy the hook. The reason why I love CHI, is because everyone loves GB. I look at +3.5 with an undervalued team at home, with a defense that has their number, and a special teams factor that's going to dictate field position. I would take this bet at +3, +2.5, and +2. But say the line was +3, buying the hook would be essentially betting that the game was going to be exactly a THREE POINT differential...at the cost to you! If you don't like the line, pass it. Parlays at this time of the year are fun if you have strong feelings on up to two aspects of the game. For example, I would entertain a $50 bet (1/2 unit for +230) on the CHI +3.5 and NJY/PIT OVER 38.5. That's just because the **** that we can pull from is so small. Keep parlays precise. I tend to stay away from parlays, because I've see some of my friends get CRUSHED on "can't misses". You know, picking 5 ML locks, hitting 4 on Sunday, with MNF yet to go and have the 5th pick get absolutely blown off the field. As a general rule,when I play parlays it's for fun and at low risk; they are fun to hit. Teasers? Ugh. No talent, less reward. Halves are good; basically because I see them as statistically relevant, especially during the regular season. You can identify a quarter through the season on which teams come out firing or struggle to make proper adjustments in the second half. I typically play halves week 4-8 pretty heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Green Bay just reminds be a lot of the Saints last year. I just made a bet: Green Bay to win it all. +175 $200 to win $350 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I like Pittsburgh to win it all at +225, Illone where did you get that money line at ? Just a heads up www.sportsbook.com has the packers at +200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deejaydana Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Still haven't decided where I'm going to lay money down for tomorrow. I don't like playing just the lines on the winner/loser in either of these contests. Will post before the games manana tho'. Any leanings out there folks? Give me your completely objective analysis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyLight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 CHI +3.5 $500 (-110) CHI ML $250 (+170) NYJ / PIT OVER 38 $100 (-110) Well, I guess I'll know by 6:30 if I'll even be making a wager on the super bowl....PASSING NYJ +4. Good luck everyone! Any leanings out there folks? Give me your completely objective analysis... See my quote above. Also, if you haven't been listening to sports radio, I'll fill you in: Aaron Rodgers is the BEST. QUARTERBACK. EVVAH! JAY CUTLER IS A RISK TAKING GUNSLINGER! The only thing that bothers me is that the Bears / Falcons play a very similar defense...which could be problematic...to my bank roll. **EDIT** I'm a moron, 61% are on the Packers, let's win some ****ing cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyLight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think I'm going to vomit. Or just drink as much Natty as possible. Here's to discretionary spending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdcskins Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm such a ***** for not betting on the Packers -3.5. All week long I was telling people Pack are gonna crush while the Bears offense sputters. But I didn't pull the trigger. O well...better not to bet than bet and possibly lose. Game ain't over either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyLight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ah yes, Todd Collins. The kiss of death. (I would love for TC15 to respond to this thread.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deejaydana Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So I just finished 10-0 for the past three weekends. Took the Pack and bought the .5 pt today and played the Jets/Steelers over (which just came thru at the very end). Hoping I can continue this hot streak for the Super Bowl. Threw down $300 already on GB because I think the in-door track setting will benefit them more than it does the Steelers. -2.5 on the spread. Hope you guys did well also today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jthor99 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'll take Pittsburgh. I just can't bet against Big Ben on the biggest stage of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 2-0 for weekend... I can't believe Pitt is underdog, esp. after Chi showed that a good D can slow the Pack...Gotta wait and see what develops on this line. I was guessing Pitt to be fav???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deejaydana Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2-0 for weekend... I can't believe Pitt is underdog, esp. after Chi showed that a good D can slow the Pack...Gotta wait and see what develops on this line. I was guessing Pitt to be fav???? Go back and look at Big Ben's stats in that Jets game. Not solid in the least. This will be a tight game and I anticipate the game being a "pick em" by gameday. The line has already dropped from 3.5 to start down to 1.5 pts today. I'm holding off my bet (for GB) until right before game time. I anticipate a 1 pt or zero spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yea, I expect the spread to improve before game time so any green bay backers would be wise to wait. I actually think they cover the three points. I dont think this game will be very tight at all really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jthor99 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Go back and look at Big Ben's stats in that Jets game. Not solid in the least. This will be a tight game and I anticipate the game being a "pick em" by gameday. The line has already dropped from 3.5 to start down to 1.5 pts today. I'm holding off my bet (for GB) until right before game time. I anticipate a 1 pt or zero spread. This is why today I'm leaning Steelers. I just can't see Big Ben putting up another poor performance on a stage that he did particularly well last time on. But, I'm certainly waiting to put in my bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gotta go with Packers in this game. They have the passing game to exploit Pitt's pass defense. if you look at who Pitt struggled against this year, it was Nola, and Pats. Both teams have dynamic passing games and were able to move the ball through the air. I feel like Rodgers will be able to do the same thing, especially given the extra week to prepare and given that the pack have more weapons on offense than Saints/Pats. I'm sure Pitt will make things interesting, but Green Bay has the defense to exploit Pitt's makeshift oline. If this was a bigger spread I'd be inclined to take Pitt, but Vegas is correct with this number. I think pack win by at least 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deejaydana Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gotta go with Packers in this game. They have the passing game to exploit Pitt's pass defense.if you look at who Pitt struggled against this year, it was Nola, and Pats. Both teams have dynamic passing games and were able to move the ball through the air. I feel like Rodgers will be able to do the same thing, especially given the extra week to prepare and given that the pack have more weapons on offense than Saints/Pats. I'm sure Pitt will make things interesting, but Green Bay has the defense to exploit Pitt's makeshift oline. If this was a bigger spread I'd be inclined to take Pitt, but Vegas is correct with this number. I think pack win by at least 4. I'm complete agreement here illone. I think the move to a 'track type' setting in Dallas favors GB much more than it favors Pitt. Raji should makes things uncomfortable for Pouncey, who has a high ankle sprain. The situational angles on the game are almost dead (both tough defenses, strong QBs, etc) even here but I just see the Packers getting better by the week. And ask yourself this? Would Pittsburgh have won 3 straight road games in the AFC the way the Pack did to get to this point? I say no way. If Pittsburgh struggles anywhere on defense---and it's hard to detect any flaws in that incredible defense---it's against a spread type offense. I see the Packers by 7 points in this game. Just haven't decided how to play it & the line, barring some crazy betting coming in, seems like it's now settled at -2.5. I think it should be a great game but with Capers, a red hot Rodgers and great cover corners and young studs on defense throughout the lineup, I'm betting GB. Now, how much? I'm up about $1500 on the season and feel like letting it all ride on this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Btubes18 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Line was at -2.5 (GB) last night. I am going to wait to see if it moves more. I like GB in this match up, steelers secondary can easily get exploited, and I think GB defense is very very good. If it moves to (-1), I will deifnitely be taking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Unless some whale like Walters hammers the line, I doubt it does much until much closer to gametime. Pretty even action on both sides right now. If someone has a good reason to take Pitt please try to talk me out of green bay. I cant find any good reasons to back Pitt in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The scene in 'Two for the Money' with Pacino and McConnaghey when he flips the coin to come up with his Super Bowl lock.... I'm about there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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