illone Posted July 31, 2010 Author Share Posted July 31, 2010 2-1 again with the baseball system. Hope you guys are getting in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted August 1, 2010 Share Posted August 1, 2010 Hope you guys are getting in on this. What you are trying here is effectively a Martingale, which exchanges a very good chance of a small victory for a very small chance of a devastating loss. That's fine as far as it goes, but it doesn't really affect your overall expected return on the bets. Either you're getting more right than you're not or not. If, for instance, the Pirates go on a 10 game winning streak, and assuming you follow your system strictly, you'll get crushed. It's highly unlikely, but that's the point. Expected Value= amount of return * probability of return. Over the long haul, lowering the probability and raising the amount (in this case, of loss) will still lead you to the same expected return at the end. It'll just be 99 small wins coupled with 1 huge loss (or whatever the numbers are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted August 1, 2010 Author Share Posted August 1, 2010 What you are trying here is effectively a Martingale, which exchanges a very good chance of a small victory for a very small chance of a devastating loss. Sounds good:ols: At the end of the day, gambling is gambling. You can't put lipstick on a pig and expect much. That said, this system has been making money. I'm not buying my own island anytime soon, but I'm up close to $300 profit betting $10 per game. I understand your point, but I'm having fun and making money so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted August 1, 2010 Share Posted August 1, 2010 I understand your point, but I'm having fun and making money so . Sounds great to me. I'm just a bit of a math geek, and I wanted to be sure that you understood that varying the size of your bets (in this case, in a Martingale) does not actually change your long term expected return. You could do just as well (or poorly) over time by making the bet a flat sum every time, whether it's a win or a loss. This way just has bigger swings. The key is the underlying bet. You seem to be relying on the idea that the gambling community as a whole has undervalued just how bad the Pirates suck, and so the line is always wrong. If you're right, you'll make money (though not if you share this too much ). If you're wrong, no system will increase the expected return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosher Ham Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 Yeah, I like that Green Bay game too. Something about it keeps me interested. I might have to go with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostic Hog Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 Week one I am loving the Skins as a home doggie.Getting 3.5? C'mon, with the cowboys depleted oline I think the Skins have a legit shot in that game. TREND: Skins are 9-24 against the spread at home in the first month of the season. (courtesy the info I got from my book just this weekend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted August 3, 2010 Author Share Posted August 3, 2010 TREND: Skins are 9-24 against the spread at home in the first month of the season. (courtesy the info I got from my book just this weekend). Let's look at how they fare when faced with a home underdog situation in week one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoggLife Posted August 20, 2010 Share Posted August 20, 2010 Good point, but I wonder if my credit card company will allow me to do that? I had problems the last time I tried Most bet site bill under Furnature and other type of companies to get around that =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoggLife Posted August 21, 2010 Share Posted August 21, 2010 All my pick: Minn +4 Car +7 Mia -3 Atl -2.5 Det +7 Cinci +5.5 Cleve +3 Den +2.5 Indi -3 Tenn -6.5 G.B. -1 S.F. -2.5 Arz -4 Wash +3.5 Balt +3 S.D. -5.5 I agree the 1st few weeks are the easiest bets and you can get up quick on the season. My 7 for sure bets are: Mia -3 Indi -3 Tenn -6.5 G.B. -1 S.F. -2.5 Wash +3.5 S.D. -5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoggLife Posted August 21, 2010 Share Posted August 21, 2010 Man I love betting like you Illone. I actually do something simular when playing Blackjack. I wish I would have known your system at the beginning of the baseball season. I will do it next season for sure. I know teams get better so I will have to change the 3 teams that you have this season. Thanks for the heads up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosher Ham Posted August 21, 2010 Share Posted August 21, 2010 I agree the 1st few weeks are the easiest bets and you can get up quick on the season. My 7 for sure bets are: Mia -3 Indi -3 Tenn -6.5 G.B. -1 S.F. -2.5 Wash +3.5 S.D. -5.5 Pretty solid. I like : At New Orleans -4 Minnesota 51 At NY Giants -7 Carolina 41 Miami-3 At Buffalo 37.5 Atlanta -2.5 At Pittsburgh 38 At Chicago -7 Detroit 42.5 At New England -6 Cincinnati 43 At Tampa Bay -2.5 Cleveland 36 ---Nothing. At Jacksonville -1.5 Denver 39.5 ---Nothing Indianapolis -3 At Houston 46.5 At Tennessee -7 Oakland 41 Green Bay -1 At Philadelphia 44.5 San Francisco -2.5 At Seattle 38 Arizona -3.5 At St. Louis 40 Dallas -3.5 At Washington 41.5 ---Staying clear, but I do like the Skins in this game. At NY Jets -3 Baltimore 37 San Diego -6 At Kansas City 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoggLife Posted August 21, 2010 Share Posted August 21, 2010 Thanks I pick my ticket then switch 3 random games. You will never pick a perfect ticket so if you switch 3 random games it really helps. At least it helps me. Our picks are pretty close except one game I am totally against is I think the Colts will beat Houston by 10 Good luck! This is my favorite all time thread here at ES!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosher Ham Posted August 21, 2010 Share Posted August 21, 2010 Thanks I pick my ticket then switch 3 random games. You will never pick a perfect ticket so if you switch 3 random games it really helps. At least it helps me. Our picks are pretty close except one game I am totally against is I think the Colts will beat Houston by 10 Good luck! This is my favorite all time thread here at ES!!! You're welcome. This year I am going to make some stretch picks on certain weeks. But some locks. Regarding your seven locks 5 of them I am pretty damn sure about. The Redskins being the other that could go either way (And that is mostly my paranoia about betting on my own favorite team). That Colts/Texans game... I feel like the Texans will win outright. :point2sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoggLife Posted August 21, 2010 Share Posted August 21, 2010 I will make a side bet on that with you. After the game the loser has to come to this thread and call the other one Big Daddy. So if I lost I would just post "Kosher Ham is Big Daddy". And I will be giving you the 3 points if you take the bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosher Ham Posted August 21, 2010 Share Posted August 21, 2010 I will make a side bet on that with you. After the game the loser has to come to this thread and call the other one Big Daddy. So if I lost I would just post "Kosher Ham is Big Daddy". And I will be giving you the 3 points if you take the bet! Sounds good to me. Especially with the points at home. Big Daddy Kosh...I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoggLife Posted August 21, 2010 Share Posted August 21, 2010 =) that is a pretty simple bet. Me and my friends here in person get some really crazy ass stuff that probably cant be posted about =) I like the bet and cant wait for you to bow down suuuuuuuucka!!!!!!! This might be a seaon long thing we have started here. I might see you calling me Big Daddy every week till Febuary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted September 2, 2010 Author Share Posted September 2, 2010 Some college action tonight. Utah -3 (-110) Risking 55 to win 50 Current bankroll - 450 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckus Posted September 2, 2010 Share Posted September 2, 2010 me personally.. never had those problems...just use a site that is big and active. I also dont like sites that have withdraw system where you have to pay a fee so the current site that I use will let you withdraw free once a week via check. It took them a 1-1.5 week to arrive after I requested it. Its a pretty good turn around i think. Which site is that? I am looking to start this year but I don't want to pay $25 or so to withdraw any money. A place with no fees would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jde88 Posted September 2, 2010 Share Posted September 2, 2010 Some college action tonight.Utah -3 (-110) Risking 55 to win 50 Current bankroll - 450 May I ask why you like Utah in that game? Just wondering because I like Pitt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted September 3, 2010 Author Share Posted September 3, 2010 Pushed Utah. bankroll remains at 450. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted September 7, 2010 Author Share Posted September 7, 2010 Green Bay - 3 (even) Risking 200 to win 200. Bankroll +450. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjinhan Posted September 7, 2010 Share Posted September 7, 2010 Which site is that? I am looking to start this year but I don't want to pay $25 or so to withdraw any money. A place with no fees would be great. bookmaker.com they are running some good promotion for beginners like deposit $100 and get $100 bonus but the roll is 20x... which means if you deposit $100 then you need to bet $2000 before you can withdraw... it sucks if you want to make a quick buck but if you are in the for the whole season and you are just wanting to get started then is a good deal.. more than likely you will lose all your money so who cares about the roll.. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjinhan Posted September 7, 2010 Share Posted September 7, 2010 Green Bay - 3 (even)Risking 200 to win 200. Bankroll +450. yeah i am loving GB... as usual I am startin my bankroll with only $200... almost tempted to try to double up with one bet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjinhan Posted September 7, 2010 Share Posted September 7, 2010 man i wanted to put down more money on this parlay but trying to stay in control.. I might put down a slimmed down version of this bet later in the week Parlay Wager - 1 Parlay of 5 Teams: Risking $25 to win $939.25 MIAMI -3-115 ATLANTA -2-110 GREEN BAY -3+105 SAN FRANCISCO -3-105 WASHINGTON +170 Bankroll: $200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjinhan Posted September 7, 2010 Share Posted September 7, 2010 bump to gather more interest... we need to get a good community to be active here.. so we can help each other make some $$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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