Blizzard of 2009: accumulation map up; schools/fed gov't closed Monday

[Sticksboi05]

So just like last year, we made a separate thread for the March 1, 2009 storm for better organization so now that we have the first official Winter Storm Warnings up, here we go again. Heck of a way to start the winter.

STORM FORECAST:

Roanoke and southwestern VA: 12-18 inches

Washington DC/Baltimore: 12-24 inches

There will be times tomorrow where you won't be able to see out of your house more than a couple feet. High winds and it's gonna be cooold. This is the real deal folks. This thing is producing flooding rains in Florida.

If you are in the mid atlantic and not near VA beach, over a foot is likely.

Also, expect thundersnow!!! Ain't seen that since '03.

--------------------

So like last year, we'll keep you updated and once the white stuff starts falling, we'll take observations and pictures to look back on. As of now, this looks like a SECS to MECS and it's not even actually winter yet! Excited?!

[wantarace17]

i'd say 12-18 inches for areas west of dc and blizzard like conditions

[TheGoodBits]

Thanks for the jinx! Really, thanks. I've got travel plans for Saturday evening, I need there to be no snow.

[TimmySmith]

Thanks for the jinx! Really, thanks. I've got travel plans for Saturday evening, I need there to be no snow.

Good luck, some early models are showing 20+ inches.

[Sticksboi05]

Thanks for the jinx! Really, thanks. I've got travel plans for Saturday evening, I need there to be no snow.

If you can travel in snow coming down over an inch per hour, good luck.

[TheGoodBits]

If you can travel in snow coming down over an inch per hour, good luck.

Nah, I'm pretty much screwed. I have my last exam at Mason on Saturday morning, so I was hoping to leave right after that. There's a pretty good chance the exam will be postponed until Monday, so I'm gonna be stuck here regardless.

[Sticksboi05]

If today's NAM runs are even close to verifying, we are in for over a foot of snow in DC.

And more good news, today's EURO run backed up the 12Z NAM. So, basically, prepare to get blasted.

[Burgundy Burner]

In South Jersey, depending on the models...either 12 to 15 or 18 to 24. Either way...zap!

[Sticksboi05]

The very reliable EURO and short range NAM now show a powerful MECS up the coast. Not kidding, this needs to be watched tonight because we may be looking at a MONSTER.

[Boots]

Sorry, but what's a MECS?

[Popeman38]

Sorry, but what's a MECS?

SECS: Significant East Coast Snowstorm

MECS: Major East Coast Snowstorm

HECS: Historic East Coast Snowstorm

[Sticksboi05]

SECS: Significant East Coast Snowstorm

MECS: Major East Coast Snowstorm

HECS: Historic East Coast Snowstorm

Precisely. Examples...

SECS: March 1, 2009

MECS: February 2006, Jan 2000

HECS: Blizzard of 96, Pres. Day 2003

[Sticksboi05]

Oh my god. 18Z NAM is a HECS. Measuring in feet.

Here's the accumulation map:

[TheGoodBits]

Oh my god. 18Z NAM is a HECS. Measuring in feet.

When you say feet, how many we talking? and where is a link to said predictions?

[Sec325]

Oh my god. 18Z NAM is a HECS. Measuring in feet.

how reliable is this? should i be making a trip to the grocery store?

[Sec325]

WOW! that map shows 18-19 inches here in manassas...how accurate have these maps been in the past being this close to the storm?

[Sticksboi05]

Here's the 18Z NAM snowfall amounts...insane..but let's see what the 0Z runs say tonight.

[Sticksboi05]

how reliable is this? should i be making a trip to the grocery store?

I'd wait. The runs tonight which use new data will be very telling but there is going to be a major snowstorm. Just how much is the question.

[Sticksboi05]

When you say feet, how many we talking? and where is a link to said predictions?

1-2 or more but again, we've gotta see more model runs to confirm that this is a possible HECS.

[Titaw]

so southern MD can get anywhere between 8-18 inches? I can't read these things, ugggh this is soo frustrating, the one time I DON'T want it to snow and it seems like it's gonna dump on us.

My prediction for Southern MD: Freezing rain then 2 inches

[Sticksboi05]

so southern MD can get anywhere between 8-18 inches? I can't read these things, ugggh this is soo frustrating, the one time I DON'T want it to snow and it seems like it's gonna dump on us.

My prediction for Southern MD: Freezing rain then 2 inches

Freezing rain out of the question because that implies that the warm air would penetrate the upper atmosphere. If it isn't snow, it'll be plain rain but that's only an issue at this point for very eastern areas near the coast.

After tonight's 0Z runs, we should have the storm pretty figured out. The 0Z runs begin at 8:30, then 10:30 then 1 AM.

[Gracelander]

Personally i'm hoping for some snow, I want to finally use the 4 wheel drive feature in my truck.

[Big Weirdo]

jinx

.....

[grhqofb5]

Freezing rain out of the question because that implies that the warm air would penetrate the upper atmosphere. If it isn't snow, it'll be plain rain but that's only an issue at this point for very eastern areas near the coast.

After tonight's 0Z runs, we should have the storm pretty figured out. The 0Z runs begin at 8:30, then 10:30 then 1 AM.

SO what did the 830 OZ run say?

[Johnny Punani]

I heard we are going to get some snow. I doubt it... lol