Thinking Skins Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 :doh: its frustrating trying to do a table :doh Anyway... I wanted to see how well Jim Zorn's offense did as a first year HC. There have been many statements made both criticizing and showing the potential of this offense. Instead of repeating some of these same arguments, I figured I would see how some well respected offensive coordinators and coaches have done throughout the past few decades. I tried to only include the 90s and 2000's because the game changed a lot in those two decades. I did, however, include two coaches from the 80's: Joe Gibbs and Jimmy Johnson. The table below is a listing of a few coaches and coordinators and the stats of their team's offensive stats in that coach's (coordinator's) first year in a particular city (from http://www.pro-football-reference.com). I realize that there are a lot of things I'm ignoring by just comparing stats (like the age on the roster, the experience of the starting QB, whether the run was setting up the pass or the pass setting up the run, etc, whether it was a WCO, Run & Shoot, Air Coryell), but there are also some common things that OCs have to establish in their first years, like - getting belief in the system - adjusting the terminology - finding a QB - different WR routes - different OL blocking All in all, I found our offense very comparable to three teams: - 2002 Chargers - 2003 Jaguars - 2006 Redskins Whats also interesting is that each of these three teams had instability at QB either in the year mentioned above, or in the following year (Brees benched for Flutie, Leftwich benched for Gerrard, and of corse Brunell benched for Campbell). So does this mean that next year we'll see Campbell benched for Collins or Brennan? Our offensive stats are also comparable to the 2008 Ravens, so maybe this means that Joe Flacco isn't so safe either. Also notice how Zorn's initial offense compares to Andy Reid, Steve Mariucci, Jon Gruden, and even Bill Bellicheck's initial offense. I know its easy to scream "the roof is on FIRE", but I don't think we're in a dire position just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalhead Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 Very interesting table of info! Great work on putting it together. The '02 Chargers appear to be the closest comparison....not bad company, I'd say. Despite how inept our offense appeared, it did put up numbers in every category except passing TD's - but had BY FAR the fewest INT's. This does force one to step back and take a look at the final output and statistics at season's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsMaster88 Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 Some rational analysis on ES without calling for the heads of Zorn, Campbell, or Portis??? Amazing. Nice job putting together all of the stats from the teams. Shows that while we definitely have room to improve, it isn't hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc97 Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 Post like this show me that there are SOME intelligent and rational Redskins fans out there.:applause: I think a big problem is because the Redskins team has so much history and because it's so deeply rooted in the community that people have a hard time accepting anything less than the Super Bowl and perennial playoff caliber teams that we had in the 80's. Like Metalhead said, this offense posted fairly good numbers in every category but TDs/Points Scored, and I think that a lot of that has to do with redzone play and lack of big plays this year. All of this being said, all is not lost, and we've seen what this team can do when things are working cohesively when they managed to go into Dallas and Philly and get big wins in both games. Now they just need to find a way to get things firing on all cylinders and keep it that way all season. -Rob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 Regardless of your individual view on any of TS's observations, this is the kind of effort that is so apprecited in a thread-starter. Per the topic, To me, rational minds have neither been celebrating any indications of early genius (as many posters were at 6-2) nor calling "off with his head, he's an idiot and an awful motivator/personality" (as many posers are now) during this season. He had bright spots and failures. Neither came in a vacuum. Since, IMO (unlike most), he did not clearly show utter incompetence or any notable brilliance (both being rarely defined in a rookie HC season) it will take next year before we can more competently evaluate a key factor: his learning and growth curve. One can only hope events make that task clear and simple one way or the other. A major problem with being mired in mediocrity as an average, with flashes of great-to-suck tossed in randomly, is that it makes problem-solving regarding coach/player personnel that much more of a challenge. It's one reason the expensive (but often poorly applied) band-aid approach has been so often employed by our organization, IMO. Obviously, the hypothetical availability of someone like Cowher would be hard to ignore. But other than such considerations, an intelligent final verdcit on Zorn is still forming. But this may be one of the most "challenging" organizationl/media/fanbase situations for such an untested rookie to find success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 I'm not full of hope about Zorn but I haven't given up on him either. I DO recall how much criticism Gibbs and Saunders got last year up until the point where a certain injury happened and a certain offense started to look like a competent, even GOOD offensive squad. All because of one change. So long as Zorn has the freedom of movement to make decisions he wants and so long as he has not wedded himself to any particular path as determining his success, then we might see real progression and improvement. But so far, he seems to have rubbed some people the wrong way (not just Portis) and has NOT demonstrated that he has the flexibility necessary to succeed as a head coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted January 11, 2009 Author Share Posted January 11, 2009 Regardless of your individual view on any of TS's observations, this is the kind of effort that is so apprecited in a thread-starter. 'preciate it. Obviously, the hypothetical availability of someone like Cowher would be hard to ignore. But other than such considerations, an intelligent final verdcit on Zorn is still forming. But this may be one of the most "challenging" organizationl/media/fanbase situations for such an untested rookie to find success. Honestly, this is kinda what made me do the table. I kinda assume that we would've had a similar defensive performance no matter who was hired as the coach. So the problem with this team would likely come from installing an offense. So what I initially wanted to do was look at how somebody like Cowher's offense did in his first year as a HC. And then the names kept adding on to the point that I just started comparing our actual results to the offenses of some well respected coaches (coordinators) throughout the league. Another thing that isn't too easy to see from the table is that most of the teams that did a lot better than us, already had established QBs. Even the 2008 Ravens who are getting a lot of hype for their record, don't have an offense thats too different than ours. They did score more points than us though, and we need to work on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 Doesn't the Redskins defense make the greatest argument that consistency and chemistry is sometimes more important then talent and flash? With the exception of 2006, we have had a top defense the last five years, and have done so without a very good D-line in any of those seasons. Isn't it worth a consideration that running the same scheme year after year with the core group of defenders has allowed them to get better and better, and made it an easier time getting draft picks and Free Agents ready to contribute into the scheme sooner than later? Why isn't this same thought process practiced when it comes to our offense? Quite the opposite I have observed. If we aren't a Top 10 offense, half of our fan base is willing to blow it all up at the end of the season and start from the drawing board again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 NCM, Well, Gibbs was willing to blow 2005 up and I'd say that if we kept Saunders (whose run adjustments and pass offense have always proven to be good) and went with consistency, we'd be a lot better. But you can't just go with what doesn't work. Otherwise, they'd never fire anyone or draft players to replace aging or inferior talent. Also, please explain how our D was so damn good in 2004, the first year of their playing with Williams schemes? Or why in 2006 we went nosediving (there were a few reasons, I believe, besides injury and Archuleta and losing Ryan Clark) ?? You FIND SOMETHING that is very good or great THEN you go with that. 10 years of Drew Bledsoe was not going to net the Patriots of 01 or the Cowboys of a little later, the SB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 Thinking Skins--Honestly, this is kinda what made me do the table. I kinda assume that we would've had a similar defensive performance no matter who was hired as the coach. So the problem with this team would likely come from installing an offense. Another thing that isn't too easy to see from the table is that most of the teams that did a lot better than us, already had established QBs. Even the 2008 Ravens who are getting a lot of hype for their record, don't have an offense thats too different than ours. They did score more points than us though, and we need to work on that. Indeed. I have pointed out, numerous times, that no matter what you want to say about the beauty of Gibbs or Williams skill-sets, we were up and down with two years of the very-similar (and worse) kinds of issues we had this year, minus the "respect for the coach dealio" which doesn't seem to show in the W/L comparison or the other like-matters of the bad years under discussion (Gibbs II to now). Think about it. In 2004, 2006, 2008, We had the similar (enough) poor records. Throughout those same years, and even 2005, 2007, we had notably inconsistent line performance. Throughout those years we had QB problems. Throughout those years we had impressive defenses that still folded at the worst times, sometimes horribly so, even while racking up excellent year-end stats and getting honestly deserved kudos. Throughout those years we had struggles with having a consistent hot #1 WR as well as a solid #2. Throughout those years we had a stud RB and a quality TE who often tallied the stats and played excellent, but it was not enough to change the bottom line. Throughout those years we had consistent issues with kicking (punt & FG). Throughout those years we tried changing these things with paying dearly for other talent that sometimes helped but more often didn't, giving up numerous draft picks and much cap room (damage debatable) along the way. Throughout those years we had issues with prima-donnas, media vs. organization distractions, player vs. player distrcations, and player vs. team disrtactions all adding to internal controversy that can affect the play. Throughout those years, in both skill execution and the basics ala numerous and maddeiningly stupid penalities, we seem to get indications of more than a few players turning in different levels of play in some games based as much on their "mood" about various "team issues" (I frame it as inconsistent focus and drive) instead of being governed by a high-quality professional level of discipline being your default position for EVERY game, and only physical injury or wear being an acceptable excuse for notable drop-offs in such performance. I'll stop there, but every one of those issues I noted have been displayed clearly on the field by our team whether untested rookie HC Jim Zorn led the team, or HOF legend/superstar-dream-team coaches led the team. So one of things I continue to say when I give all those observations (as there are many points to discuss about all those matters besides the HC position), is that to declare many of these same woes are proof that Zorn is a "fail" already is far too simplistic. It is more a case of mixing valid criticism with serious scapegoating. Even "locker room issues", as I just reminded, that have been given SO much play currently in denigrating Zorn, existed in one form or another under the coaches that preceded him. But he didn't finish 4-12, nor can he smile about 8-8. He has much to correct and much to learn. What a shock. Even going into a situation that didn't so resemble an asylum, he would. But here, he'll need it get it right against the odds and do so asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Let me add that the team tried to improve punting for good with the acquisition of the best punter in college football and he busted out (he may be back one day, who knows.) I agree with Jumbo that many of those same issues being discussed existed previously, just depended on the year/week. I'm not overly enthused about him but I think we should give him next year to show something of relative long-term value to the team. But honestly, I just think that almost ANYONE who wants to put forth the effort will succeed if they get 2-3 things fixed with this team (and really fixed.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horton_Predator48 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Regardless of your individual view on any of TS's observations, this is the kind of effort that is so apprecited in a thread-starter. Per the topic, To me, rational minds have neither been celebrating any indications of early genius (as many posters were at 6-2) nor calling "off with his head, he's an idiot and an awful motivator/personality" (as many posers are now) during this season. He had bright spots and failures. Neither came in a vacuum. Since, IMO (unlike most), he did not clearly show utter incompetence or any notable brilliance (both being rarely defined in a rookie HC season) it will take next year before we can more competently evaluate a key factor: his learning and growth curve. One can only hope events make that task clear and simple one way or the other. A major problem with being mired in mediocrity as an average, with flashes of great-to-suck tossed in randomly, is that it makes problem-solving regarding coach/player personnel that much more of a challenge. It's one reason the expensive (but often poorly applied) band-aid approach has been so often employed by our organization, IMO. Obviously, the hypothetical availability of someone like Cowher would be hard to ignore. But other than such considerations, an intelligent final verdcit on Zorn is still forming. But this may be one of the most "challenging" organizationl/media/fanbase situations for such an untested rookie to find success. I agree it's a great post. Good to see some quantitative data to back up some points. I'm not sure if Cowher is the answer. I don't think any new coach is going to be the answer. I think the answer is giving someone more than two to three years to win a Super Bowl. Look at Cowhers record. 1 Super Bowl win in 15 years with 5losses in the AFC championship game. Great resume, but only one ring. It takes time and a little luck to win the big one and a fancy name is not going to get it done. The more and more I think about the big picture, all that matters is winning the Super Bowl. It's great to make it to the playoffs, but if you can't seal the deal, it's the same as not making it at all. I would give Zorn five years and then re-evaluate. Eagles fans were just about to kick Andy Reid and McNabb out of town, no look at them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailGreen28 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 I'll stop there, but every one of those issues I noted have been displayed clearly on the field by our team whether untested rookie HC Jim Zorn led the team, or HOF legend/superstar-dream-team coaches led the team. QFT. And so much truth seems to be in the other stuff you said.As an aside: In Gibbs last year we had a solid bend-not-break D, and an O that had trouble throwing the long bomb. This year Zorn worked with basically the same guys that Gibbs did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Well right, and lets not forget in 2008 Zorn was installing a WCO, with the personnel suited for a Joe Gibbs offense. Zorn drafted guys who he thought would help and they didn't see much playing time as rookies, but Fred Davis and Kelley showed flashes they can contribute. Thomas, well lets list that as incomplete. When you bring in a new offense, one of the most essential things is to get the personnel that makes the offense work. How could anyone expect Zorn to do that in one offseason, let alone make everyone on the team a WCO expert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddub52 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Who are the Bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie5 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Your chart hurts my baby head, but this is an excellent post. Time should have convinced pretty much everyone by now that Zorn's first season -- especially given his dual head coach/offensive coordinator duties -- was, well, a first season. We saw signs that he can be a hell of playcaller and signs that he still has lots to learn. There will those who insist that the dual job thing is too much for any rookie head coach these days and they'll point to the 3 rookies HCs who had better records this year (one still coaching) -- all 3 had individual coordinators so they focused solely on head coaching. I think there's something to that, but I also think, looking long-term, if Zorn is the offensive coordinator I think he can be (and he obviously thinks he can be), we could have a serious gem. Redskin fans have grown so accustomed to having a zillion different coaches for every possible discipline that we don't know what to make of a guy who wears, in effect, three large hats. Let's give it a chance. Aside from changing the offensive system, Zorn has had to, as head coach, change the culture of a team where the previous head coach deferred to his veterans. That created, as we've seen, something of an entitlement assumption in the locker room. Zorn has shown that he's not willing to go status quo with that; let's see if he sticks to his guns. He might lose a star player or two but he might gain a whole, unified team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMONEY Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 One thing I thing Zorn needs to do is get a lil motion going in his offense. I remember reading some of the Skins players were glad not to be running as much motion because it makes them tired. I'm what? I mean running motion can allow a Qb to read a defense to know if their in man or zone. Also it can allow for a WR stop right at the end of the line when the ball is hiked to pick up a blitz or help in pass blocking. I mean it does a lot to me. Thats just one aspect where he can improve. I think the Skins need to get an o-line too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightbird Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 How dare you post a new thread with relevant research and critical thinking! I demand a new thread about us trading Chris Horton for a 1st round pick and then drafting Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree while offering Mike Leach $10 million per year to serve as a "special assistant." Who is this ES imposter!?!?!?!? JK -- nice post, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 How dare you post a new thread with relevant research and critical thinking!I demand a new thread about us trading Chris Horton for a 1st round pick and then drafting Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree while offering Mike Leach $10 million per year to serve as a "special assistant." Who is this ES imposter!?!?!?!? JK -- nice post, thanks. Some days I look at the Stadium, and I just want to start a whole string of new threads where the title is just some clown's name: Clive Bartloe Jazille Banty Loland Pilligrew Darrin McCoy Lance Pottman Korneeleeus Rashid Ben Cranshaw and just let those be the whole first page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtwray67 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Zorn is lacking in credentials...and with his career is tied to the success of Jason Campbell this will be his only head coaching job. How can anyone be excited about this football team? I can't express properly my anger, disappointment, and hatred with the current state of the Skins without being offensive. These bums need to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtwray67 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 No, some bum named Sherman Smith is the so called offensive coordinator. Very offensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 Zorn is lacking in credentials...and with his career is tied to the success of Jason Campbell this will be his only head coaching job. How can anyone be excited about this football team?I can't express properly my anger, disappointment, and hatred with the current state of the Skins without being offensive. These bums need to go! I'm sure Philly fans felt the same way about Andy Reid. :doh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 No, some bum named Sherman Smith is the so called offensive coordinator. Very offensive. See, when you put it in those terms, "very offensive", I'm inclined to think he actually IS behind running the offense which more often then not results in the very same feeling. Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 I honestly wonder how much of Zorn's problem was just the players not picking up the playbook fast enough (similar to the problem Saunders had). What it really seems like is that - with a few exceptions, where the starting QBs were already pretty experienced guys - most first year head coaches and guys who are installing an offense don't get much done in their first year. Case and point, Zorn said the WCO takes 3 years to master, but I wonder how long it takes for players to master any offense, again with the exception of having a QB like Brett Favre or Peyton Manning. This is one of the reasons that I've been real big on drafting DT - because I think that just like 2008, the defense will be key to our winning games in 2009 (remember that we could've won two more games (Rams and SF) had the defense held on the last drive, i.e. had they had a pass rush, i.e. had we had a DT to collapse the pocket). If we can have a dominant defense that stays ranked in the top 10, then it'll help with some of the growing pains we can expect from the continued instillation of Zorn's offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 See, when you put it in those terms, "very offensive", I'm inclined to think he actually IS behind running the offense which more often then not results in the very same feeling.Hail. I wonder if this was a problem too. Because Smith is the offensive coordinator, but Smith is actually coordinating an offense that Zorn designed. So I wonder how long it actually took Smith to sit and understand all the implications of Zorn's offense. Hopefully that can be something that gets better this coming year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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