K-Rods A Met!!!

[Metskins]

Does the name Bobby Thigpen mean anythiing to you? This is overspending on a Yankeeian scale.

You simply don't know what you're talking about.

[Metskins]

Hahahaha. The Mets suck.

Phillies World Series Champions. Lidge > K-Rod

Season Series Last Year:

Mets 11 Phillies 7

Not even close.

[rincewind]

You simply don't know what you're talking about.

How's that?

[Metskins]

How's that?

They got a good deal. I'm not saying they're going to win the World Series because of him, but they got him for less than the Reds paid for Fransisco Cordero last season. And Bobby Thigpen? This guy is not a one hit wonder.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

I expected him to get more. It's actually a good sign that salaries won't balloon again. (Until The Yankees give Sabathia 135 million).

And the Nats give Tex 200 mil or whatever :doh:

Season Series Last Year:

Mets 11 Phillies 7

Not even close.

I'm sorry dude but that's pathetic.

Phils = WS Champs

Mets = Watching from home

That's all that matters. And **** Philly (and NY)

[Metskins]

And the Nats give Tex 200 mil or whatever :doh:

I'm sorry dude but that's pathetic.

Phils = WS Champs

Mets = Watching from home

That's all that matters. And **** Philly (and NY)

I wasn't trying to compare the two. It's all I've got to hang my hat on.

Kind of like the year the Skins beat the Cowboys twice but the Boys still won the Super Bowl. It takes a little bit of the sting off.

And by the way, HOW'S GILBERT ARENAS WORKING OUT??

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

And by the way, HOW'S GILBERT ARENAS WORKING OUT??

I don't know. He hasn't played yet. Get back to me if he sucks when he's back in a few weeks.

BTW, who is your team?

[LApunkrocker72]

I'm a lifelong Angels fan. And while it is a little sad to see K-Rod leave, I think letting K-Rod go makes good business sense for the Angels. $37 M is too much for a closer and plus the Angels already have a heir apparent in Jose Arrendondo.

[Spaceman Spiff]

This is what I was trying to say earlier:

Don't believe me? Check out this study by Dave Smith of Retrosheet. He researched late-inning leads over 73 seasons, from 1944 to 2003, and an additional 14 seasons prior to that span. What he found is that the winning percentage for teams who enter the ninth inning with a lead has remained virtually unchanged over the decades. Regardless of the pitching strategy, teams entering the ninth inning with a lead win roughly 95 percent of the time. That was the exact rate in 1901 and that was the rate 100 seasons later. In fact, the rate has varied merely from a high of 96.7 percent in 1909 to a low of 92.5 percent in 1941.

But I know what you're thinking. That study applies to all leads, including big ones. But what about the slim leads, the ones defined as "save situations"? Glad you asked. Because Smith looked at those leads as well. And what he found is winning rates for those leads have also remained constant -- one-run leads after eight innings have been won roughly 85 percent of the time, two-run leads 94 percent of the time and three-run leads about 96 percent of the time.

And:

"Whitey Herzog had a lot of success with a closer by committee," Beane says. "Although now that I think back on it, I'm not sure they called it 'closer by committee' back then. I think then it was just called 'using your bullpen wisely.' Then closers became 'specialists.'"

And.....:

The restricted role of closers not only is an inefficient use of their talent, it renders them useless during a prolonged losing streak because the team never has a lead in the ninth inning to protect. Putz "saved" 40 games last year with a 1.38 ERA, was named the team's best pitcher by the local writers and the reliever of the year by the league. Yet when Seattle was in the midst of losing 13 of 14 games in late August and early September to tumble from the wild-card lead to hopelessly out of playoff contention, Putz pitched only twice. So when the team was floundering at a make-or-break point of the season, its supposed best pitcher -- the league's alleged best reliever -- was of no help because the Mariners were not in official and proper "save situations."

To not use your best pitcher for almost two weeks when the season is going down the drain because the stars were not properly aligned? I'm sorry but that's just messed up.

AND.....

The job of protecting ninth-inning leads that history shows are almost always successfully protected is simply is not as hard as people make it to be. Time and time again we see pitchers who struggled as starters become unhittable closers (Mariano Rivera, Eric Gagne, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon are recent examples), and yet we still pretend the job is so difficult, demanding and onerous that you need the pitching talent of Sandy Koufax, the philosophical makeup of the Dalai Lama and the courage of Rosa Parks.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/080805

Read the whole thing, its a great article and drills home why closers are bull****.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I don't know. He hasn't played yet. Get back to me if he sucks when he's back in a few weeks.

BTW, who is your team?

You know, that team that's selling the farm in hopes they can get LeBron in a couple years

[Metskins]

I don't know. He hasn't played yet. Get back to me if he sucks when he's back in a few weeks.

BTW, who is your team?

Actually, I'm a Wiz fan. Maybe I took a cheap shot, but I couldn't resist.

[TheDoyler23]

Read the whole thing, its a great article and drills home why closers are bull****.

That's because they are bull. Unless you have the best or top 3ish in the league, the difference between the 8th best closer and the 18th is probably a game over the course of the season. That, and millions of dollars.

[Spaceman Spiff]

That's because they are bull. Unless you have the best or top 3ish in the league, the difference between the 8th best closer and the 18th is probably a game over the course of the season. That, and millions of dollars.

And, as Lidge has shown, you can float anywhere on that list.

[Metskins]

That's because they are bull. Unless you have the best or top 3ish in the league, the difference between the 8th best closer and the 18th is probably a game over the course of the season. That, and millions of dollars.

The Mets had 29 blown saves last year....29!!!!!!!!! This should help.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

You know, that team that's selling the farm in hopes they can get LeBron in a couple years

Ugh.

Actually no. We don't have enough coming off the books in 2010 to make a run at Lebron.

I'd puke myself to death if we did get him though.

Ugh.

But really, I want us to tank to get Blake Griffin.

And we're about to make a nice move tonight: The Grizzlies lottery protected pick (from the Juan Carlos Navarro trade) back to the Grizzlies for 6' 5" 20-year-old PG Javaris Crittenton. I'm all about it.

Alright, back to baseball and the rich getting richer...

[Spaceman Spiff]

The Mets had 29 blown saves last year....29!!!!!!!!! This should help.

Bad bullpen management. Read the article.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Ugh.

Actually no. We don't have enough coming off the books in 2010 to make a run at Lebron.

I'd puke myself to death if we did get him though.

Ugh.

But really, I want us to tank to get Blake Griffin.

And we're about to make a nice move tonight: The Grizzlies lottery protected pick (from the Juan Carlos Navarro trade) back to the Grizzlies for 6' 5" 20-year-old PG Javaris Crittenton. I'm all about it.

Alright, back to baseball and the rich getting richer...

Ah, I was assuming he was a Knicks fan.

I haven't been watching the Wiz like I used to though, and I dunno why that is.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

I haven't been watching the Wiz like I used to though, and I dunno why that is.

Because they suck? Lol.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Because they suck? Lol.

I hate admitting that, but probably.

I used to get so mad after watching Wizards games. With the Orioles, its expected, and at least the Skins limit it to Sundays so its a once a week thing.

However with the Wizards, multiple times a week and failure to address the need of a legit low post presence and first round bounces....ugh, I just got tired of it.

[Big Weirdo]

Season Series Last Year:

Mets 11 Phillies 7

Not even close.

Bwahahahaha!! Nice.

The "We Beat you in the season series" argument. Thats classic.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

I hate admitting that, but probably.

I used to get so mad after watching Wizards games. With the Orioles, its expected, and at least the Skins limit it to Sundays so its a once a week thing.

However with the Wizards, multiple times a week and failure to address the need of a legit low post presence and first round bounces....ugh, I just got tired of it.

I feel ya.

Although Skins loss, despite being only once a week, kill me more than Wiz losses do. I think because they play so few games each loss is that much more heavier. 5.125 times heavier (82/16)

You seen McGee at all? That legit low-post presence thing may very soon be a thing of the past. Perhaps the best draft pick of my 25 years. No bull****.

[DCSaints_fan]

Bad bullpen management. Read the article.

Really how did you know? Did the Mets just not use Wagner properly this year?

I'm not sure I agree with his analysis. he's probably right that the "closer" should be used more often, and not just in save situations. Alot of smart teams already do this - they will bring him in the 8th inning of things get too hot. The Yankees do this alot with Rivera.

And it may not be logical, but you can't assume that the closer's performance is going to be the same no matter when he plays. Some pitchers might just relish being the guy to seal to deal. Its like with Alfonso Soriano not batting leadoff. For some reason he just doesn't bat as well when he doesn't bat first. Doesn't make sense, but its what it is.

As for that 95%-85% thing. Those are league-wide averages. Some teams do much better, some do much worse. You want to be one of the better teams.

The same argument can be made for hitters too. I don't have a link handy but there have been calculations done that show that very high priced players like A-rod, etc. will only win you a few games more than the average player at the given position. But all those "few games" add up, and in the case of the Mets, if they were only a few games better last year, they make the playoffs.

Is K-rod worth what he is going to be paid to the average team? Probably not. But the Mets aren't an average "moneyball" team. They have fairly deep pockets and don't have to consider market inefficiencies to a degree vs. team like the A's.

[Heidenreich]

The Mets had 29 blown saves last year....29!!!!!!!!! This should help.

But the Mets CLOSER didn't have 29 blown saves last year.

The way baseball statistics are now, you can Blow a save in the 5th or sixth inning.

So while K-Rod might make things slightly better in the ninth inning (and it's not like Wagner was Jose Mesa out there), there will still be plenty of blown saves in the middle innings by the Mets quality relief arms like Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoenweise, and Luis Ayala.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I feel ya.

Although Skins loss, despite being only once a week, kill me more than Wiz losses do. I think because they play so few games each loss is that much more heavier. 5.125 times heavier (82/16)

You seen McGee at all? That legit low-post presence thing may very soon be a thing of the past. Perhaps the best draft pick of my 25 years. No bull****.

But it sucks man, I've always prided myself on sticking with my teams through thick and thin. For some reason I couldn't do it with the Wizards.

I've seen some McGee and I've checked box scores. He's good, they need to give him more minutes though. 4-15, let him play more.

Really how did you know? Did the Mets just not use Wagner properly this year?

I'm not sure I agree with his analysis. he's probably right that the "closer" should be used more often, and not just in save situations. Alot of smart teams already do this - they will bring him in the 8th inning of things get too hot. The Yankees do this alot with Rivera.

And it may not be logical, but you can't assume that the closer's performance is going to be the same no matter when he plays. Some pitchers might just relish being the guy to seal to deal. Its like with Alfonso Soriano not batting leadoff. For some reason he just doesn't bat as well when he doesn't bat first. Doesn't make sense, but its what it is.

As for that 95%-85% thing. Those are league-wide averages. Some teams do much better, some do much worse. You want to be one of the better teams.

The same argument can be made for hitters too. I don't have a link handy but there have been calculations done that show that very high priced players like A-rod, etc. will only win you a few games more than the average player at the given position. But all those "few games" add up, and in the case of the Mets, if they were only a few games better last year, they make the playoffs.

Is K-rod worth what he is going to be paid to the average team? Probably not. But the Mets aren't an average "moneyball" team. They have fairly deep pockets and don't have to consider market inefficiencies to a degree vs. team like the A's.

League averages yes, some good, some bad...thats' why it's an average.

Heidenreich put it better than I could though.

But the Mets CLOSER didn't have 29 blown saves last year.

The way baseball statistics are now, you can Blow a save in the 5th or sixth inning.

So while K-Rod might make things slightly better in the ninth inning (and it's not like Wagner was Jose Mesa out there), there will still be plenty of blown saves in the middle innings by the Mets quality relief arms like Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoenweise, and Luis Ayala.

[DCSaints_fan]

But the Mets CLOSER didn't have 29 blown saves last year.

The way baseball statistics are now, you can Blow a save in the 5th or sixth inning.

No, you can't, not going by the official definition of save which is the last pitcher to pitch in the 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead. Earlier innings aren't save opporunities. You might be thinking of a "hold".

Edit: Well I was wrong, you could potentially get a save as early as the 6th inning. (If the pitcher finishes the game). No one uses their bullpen like that though.

So while K-Rod might make things slightly better in the ninth inning (and it's not like Wagner was Jose Mesa out there), there will still be plenty of blown saves in the middle innings by the Mets quality relief arms like Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoenweise, and Luis Ayala.

Perhaps, but like I said before, if K-rod makes a 5 game difference in the Mets win total, the Mets would have made the playoffs last year (and the year before)