Football Outsiders: Adding star WR rarely improves team

[Dirk Diggler]

Can't say I'm surprised here...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3363588

Adding star WR rarely improves team

By Aaron Schatz

Football Outsiders.com

When it comes to NFL wide receivers, the watchword of the day is "disgruntled." Chad Johnson is unhappy in Cincinnati and has demanded a trade. Anquan Boldin is unhappy in Arizona and has also demanded a trade. At least we know Boldin is unhappy about money; nobody seems to know why Johnson wants out of Cincinnati.

In recent years, adding a disgruntled wide receiver has provided the final piece of the puzzle for a number of Super Bowl contenders. Trading for Terrell Owens helped the 2004 Eagles finally advance to the Super Bowl. Trading for Randy Moss transformed the New England offense and led to a 16-0 regular season. It's no wonder numerous teams have contacted Cincinnati and Arizona, trying to talk trade.

However, if the Bengals and Cardinals give in to the trade demands, it may not mean as much as people think. NFL teams that add a star wide receiver don't actually have a very good record of improvement.

Of course, there is no precedent for a consistent wide receiver of Johnson's caliber changing teams. Johnson was third in the NFL last year with 1,440 receiving yards, and has five straight seasons with at least 1,200 receiving yards. No wide receiver in NFL history has ever changed teams after two straight 1,200-yard seasons, let alone five. No wide receiver has ever changed teams after five straight 1,000-yard seasons, and only two changed teams after four (Owens and Muhsin Muhammad).

Each of the teams that lost a 1,200-yard receiver suffered except for the 2005 Panthers, but that's a special case -- they lost Muhammad, but they also got Steve Smith back from the broken leg that cost him nearly all of 2004, and he moved right back into the No. 1 receiver role.

Meanwhile, the teams that added these receivers generally didn't get any better. By far the biggest improvement came from the 2005 Bears, but that had a lot more to do with defense than it did with signing Muhammad. Of these six wide receivers, Laveranues Coles was the only one who gained 1,000 yards in his first season with his new team.

Loosen the restrictions to get a bigger group of receivers, and the analysis gives pretty much the same result: Teams that lose a top receiver usually decline, but despite what we've seen in recent years from Owens and Moss, the average team that gains a top receiver doesn't improve.

For example, let's look at a group that would include not only Johnson but also Boldin: receivers who gained 1,000 yards the previous season or a combined 2,000 yards the previous two seasons. Twenty-eight receivers qualify for a total of 31 seasons, since three receivers did it twice (Coles, Tony Martin and Keenan McCardell). Note that Moss counts only when he went from Minnesota to Oakland, not when he went from Oakland to New England, because of his poor 2006 season.

The 31 teams that lost these receivers dropped from an average of 7.3 wins to an average of 6.6 wins. But the 31 teams that picked up these receivers also dropped slightly, from an average of 7.9 wins to an average of 7.8 wins.

Even if we look at the teams with the biggest improvement, it is hard to say that the new receivers made a big difference. The 2004 Chargers had already turned things around by the time they picked up McCardell at midseason. The 2002 Colts bounced back because Edgerrin James returned from his ACL injury, not because they added Qadry Ismail. Brett Perriman had nothing to do with the 1997 Chiefs going 13-3; he caught just six passes and Kansas City released him after five games. I already mentioned Muhammad above. Of the five receivers whose new teams gained four wins or more, the only one who really had a major impact was Tony Martin joining the 1998 Falcons, who didn't have a 1,000-yard receiver the year before.

One reason these players haven't been more important to their new teams is that 1,000-yard receivers who change teams have usually tended to be very good No. 2 receivers like Boldin, rather than superstars like Johnson. Only 15 of these 31 receivers led both their old team and their new team in receiving yards. This group had a slightly positive effect, with teams that picked up these players going from an average of 7.7 wins to an average of 8.1 wins.

As I said earlier, no player with Johnson's pedigree has ever changed teams in the offseason. Just because guys like Derrick Mason and Yancey Thigpen weren't major difference-makers when they changed teams, that doesn't mean Johnson couldn't transform an offense that desperately needed a No. 1 receiver (hello, Jacksonville). Obviously, this analysis doesn't do a good job of measuring the transformative power of Owens in Philadelphia or Moss in New England. Owens helped the Eagles win more playoff games, not more regular-season games. Moss and the 2007 Patriots don't even show up in the analysis because he was so bad in Oakland.

On the other hand, Owens and Moss have each switched teams twice, and neither one made as much of a difference the other time. The Cowboys signed Owens and went from 9-7 to … 9-7. Even after trading for Moss, the Raiders' offense was still a joke.

Nothing guarantees Johnson will help carry his new team to the Super Bowl the way Owens and Moss did for the Eagles and Patriots. Odds are that the loss of Johnson or Boldin will hurt Cincinnati or Arizona more than the addition will help their new teams.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

This article doesn't prove or disprove anything. Over the past 4 years 2 teams that did trade for one went to the super bowl but..........Mcardell, Martin and Muhammed, come on, this guy wasted too much of his life researching this mularkey.

[inmate running the asylum]

Right or wrong, I happen to like articles where the writer puts in some hours on research, and to at least make his point.

Instead of 80% of the posts on this board, where the poster has nothing meaningful to say but a 2-second, off-the-wall comment, with no facts to back anything up.

[TheLongshot]

Owens helped the Eagles win more playoff games, not more regular-season games.

I think they mean the other way around. I mean, he only played in the Superbowl in the postseason for them. He didn't help them win more playoff games. They did that without him.

Jason

[SkinSabbath]

Moss and the 2007 Patriots don't even show up in the analysis because he was so bad in Oakland.

Moss went to the Patriots, and they went 16-0! Don't tell me a star WR doesn't improve the team. Oakland's bad deal does not TRUMP what the patriots did when adding Randy Moss.

In this argument, the MOST RECENT evidence is COMPLETELY IGNORED.He changed their ENTIRE offense, and a STAR WR would help the Redskins in the same way.

Oakland's deal DOES prove that we shoud NOT be trading TWO 1st round picks for an unhappy guy. We can get him for much cheaper once he actually FOLLOWS THROUGH with his holdout, and starts wasting cincy's cap space.

:2cents:

[pointyfootball]

I know when the Eagles lost James Thrash, Todd Pinkston and Freddie, they struggled offensively.

[pointyfootball]

Moss went to the Patriots, and they went 16-0! Don't tell me a star WR doesn't improve the team. Oakland's bad deal does not TRUMP what the patriots did when adding Randy Moss.

In this argument, the MOST RECENT evidence is COMPLETELY IGNORED.He changed their ENTIRE offense, and a STAR WR would help the Redskins in the same way.

Oakland's deal DOES prove that we shoud NOT be trading TWO 1st round picks for an unhappy guy. We can get him for much cheaper once he actually FOLLOWS THROUGH with his holdout, and starts wasting cincy's cap space.

A star receiver helps a team that is ALREADY good, not a "fair-to-middlin'" team. It's too easy to take a team's best option out of a game for a WR, who is SO dependent upon the play of the OL, QB and other receivers, to make a significant impact. The reason the Pats did so well was they were solid across all portions of their offense. When part of that broke down, in the San Diego game and in the SuperBowl, Moss mattered little.

The other thing regarding Moss (and TO when he was in Philly), is that I think those two actually made their teams just the slightest bit lazy. Their offense rarely had to fight, scratch and claw their way to score points. DMac and Brady could just chuck it down the field at will for huge chunks of yardage. Then, when that wasn't an option, they had difficulty adjusting.

[elkabong82]

The article, while having good intentions, doesn't actually mention any star receivers that went to another team, and that team bombed. The writer also tries to downplay the record improvement of teams that brought in star WRs to further support his case. However, the teams that brought in star WRs recently have already had good records, and didn't have a lot of room to imporve, record-wise.

In other words, the writer had good intentions, but it seems like he had his conclusion before doing the research and is coming up with "odd" points to bolster his conclusion.

[SkinSabbath]

A star receiver helps a team that is ALREADY good, not a "fair-to-middlin'" team.

In my opinion ( :2cents: ) The Skins ARE GOOD. A playoff team. With an up -and-coming young QB, highlight-reel HB, veteran Offensive Line... And a solid receiver corps, they're only missing 1 thing ==> a BIG #1 WR

All i'm saying is it worked for them (16-0), and it can work for us this year.

I agree that you can't try and build your team around a WR, but The Skins are not in the "building" stage anymore... We're in the "Getting the one piece we need to get to the championship game" stage

:point2sky

[Mursilis]

In my opinion ( :2cents: ) The Skins ARE GOOD. A playoff team. With an up -and-coming young QB, highlight-reel HB, veteran Offensive Line... And a solid receiver corps, they're only missing 1 thing ==> a BIG #1 WR

All i'm saying is it worked for them (16-0), and it can work for us this year.

I agree that you can't try and build your team around a WR, but The Skins are not in the "building" stage anymore... We're in the "Getting the one piece we need to get to the championship game" stage

:point2sky

Do you not watch the games, homer? The 'skins haven't even put together back-to-back winning seasons in what, 8 years? (It's getting hard to remember even). One piece from a championship? You've got to be kidding. We haven't even won our division in forever, let alone a championship. The way this team bounces around between winning and losing years, it's looking to be a down year anyway. You need to take off the homer goggles and take a realistic look at the situation. Adding one WR, even an elite one, isn't going to do jack. Lots more pieces are needed.

[elkabong82]

Do you not watch the games, homer? The 'skins haven't even put together back-to-back winning seasons in what, 8 years? (It's getting hard to remember even). One piece from a championship? You've got to be kidding. We haven't even won our division in forever, let alone a championship. The way this team bounces around between winning and losing years, it's looking to be a down year anyway. You need to take off the homer goggles and take a realistic look at the situation. Adding one WR, even an elite one, isn't going to do jack. Lots more pieces are needed.

Umm, did you actually watch the '07 season? Before you write the Skins off as some low-level team, remember that we were competitive in every single game last year, save for the Pats. We beat the Superbowl champs in thier house when playoffs were on the line for both teams, we beat Dallas once and came within one play of beating them twice, we were head to head with Green Bay, etc. The games we did lose, except the Pats, came down to the last drive.

Playoffs 2 of the last 3 seasons is very good, just cause it wasn't "back-to-back" doesn't mean the team is terrible. In fact, you take away the injuries of '06, and that's a potential playoff squad right there. The Giants made the playoffs at 8-8 in '06, we could have won 3 or more games extra with a fully healthy squad, IMO.

Division winning doesn't matter so long as you make the playoffs. The Giants should have proven that to you already.

You need to take off the hater goggles, and realize that the same team that made the playoffs is returning all their starters, and has 9 picks in the draft to infuse youth at key depth positions. We have a top 10 D, and the O is what needs to improve. Adding an elite WR, coupled with some O-line depth and a D-lineman in the draft could absolutley put us over the top. You care to elaborate on this multitude of starters we need? Not depth, but actual starters. So far we need a WR to come in and start, maybe a DE, that's it. The depth in certain areas is an issue, but like I said, that's why we have the draft. Our starters, more or less, are good to go.

[pjfootballer]

It's been so long since we've won the SB that the players from that team are about ready to collect Social Security.

[pjfootballer]

In my opinion ( :2cents: ) The Skins ARE GOOD. A playoff team. With an up -and-coming young QB, highlight-reel HB, veteran Offensive Line... And a solid receiver corps, they're only missing 1 thing ==> a BIG #1 WR

All i'm saying is it worked for them (16-0), and it can work for us this year.

I agree that you can't try and build your team around a WR, but The Skins are not in the "building" stage anymore... We're in the "Getting the one piece we need to get to the championship game" stage

:point2sky

Please see below.

Do you not watch the games, homer? The 'skins haven't even put together back-to-back winning seasons in what, 8 years? (It's getting hard to remember even). One piece from a championship? You've got to be kidding. We haven't even won our division in forever, let alone a championship. The way this team bounces around between winning and losing years, it's looking to be a down year anyway. You need to take off the homer goggles and take a realistic look at the situation. Adding one WR, even an elite one, isn't going to do jack. Lots more pieces are needed.

Kool-Aid. Oh Yeah!!! I agree with you.

[pjfootballer]

Umm, did you actually watch the '07 season? Before you write the Skins off as some low-level team, remember that we were competitive in every single game last year, save for the Pats. We beat the Superbowl champs in thier house when playoffs were on the line for both teams, we beat Dallas once and came within one play of beating them twice, we were head to head with Green Bay, etc. The games we did lose, except the Pats, came down to the last drive.

Playoffs 2 of the last 3 seasons is very good, just cause it wasn't "back-to-back" doesn't mean the team is terrible. In fact, you take away the injuries of '06, and that's a potential playoff squad right there. The Giants made the playoffs at 8-8 in '06, we could have won 3 or more games extra with a fully healthy squad, IMO.

Division winning doesn't matter so long as you make the playoffs. The Giants should have proven that to you already.

You need to take off the hater goggles, and realize that the same team that made the playoffs is returning all their starters, and has 9 picks in the draft to infuse youth at key depth positions. We have a top 10 D, and the O is what needs to improve. Adding an elite WR, coupled with some O-line depth and a D-lineman in the draft could absolutley put us over the top. You care to elaborate on this multitude of starters we need? Not depth, but actual starters. So far we need a WR to come in and start, maybe a DE, that's it. The depth in certain areas is an issue, but like I said, that's why we have the draft. Our starters, more or less, are good to go.

I sort of agree with you on some points, but when some of us point out to another poster who has Lombardi's in their eyes and have been blinded by it's shiny exterior, it's for their own good. The popular misconception in here is when some people say that we need to use the draft to get better, is that we think the team stinks. Not true. I know the Redskins don's stink. I know we have a roster full of good players, but adding one player will not get us to the next level. What I'm trying to say is some people think we're one player away, when the reality is, we are a mediocre team that needs more than one player. We're not a terrible team, but much closer to average then we are championship worthy.

[[[ghost]]]

By star WRs, I thought he'd mean stars.

Most people don't think 1,000 yards= star. I think 1300 +9 Tds = star.

Just me, I guess.

[Mursilis]

Umm, did you actually watch the '07 season? Before you write the Skins off as some low-level team,

Where'd I say low-level? We're not the Cards, Raiders, or the Lions - I know that well enough.

Playoffs 2 of the last 3 seasons is very good, just cause it wasn't "back-to-back" doesn't mean the team is terrible.

5-11 doesn't make the case for "not terrible" very well. I never said the 'skins were CONSISTENTLY bad (bad teams don't go to the playoffs, as you've said), but they're not consistently good, either. Some of the wins, as well as some of the losses, were very close last year. Truly good teams show up CONSISTENTLY. This year is going to say a lot about what kind of team this is.

In fact, you take away the injuries of '06, and that's a potential playoff squad right there. The Giants made the playoffs at 8-8 in '06, we could have won 3 or more games extra with a fully healthy squad, IMO.

Pure speculation.

Division winning doesn't matter so long as you make the playoffs. The Giants should have proven that to you already.

Agreed.

You need to take off the hater goggles, and realize that the same team that made the playoffs is returning all their starters, and has 9 picks in the draft to infuse youth at key depth positions.

Not a hater, just a realist.

We have a top 10 D, and the O is what needs to improve. Adding an elite WR, coupled with some O-line depth and a D-lineman in the draft could absolutley put us over the top. You care to elaborate on this multitude of starters we need? Not depth, but actual starters. So far we need a WR to come in and start, maybe a DE, that's it. The depth in certain areas is an issue, but like I said, that's why we have the draft. Our starters, more or less, are good to go.

Depth is EVERYTHING in the NFL, and that's especially true given the age of this team. We've already got two starters (Rogers and McIntosh) coming back from serious injuries, and it's questionable whether either will be ready by opening day. You can also bank on at least two OL guys missing multiple games, as well as at least one WR. Who knows what else will happen? Maybe you see a "one-player-from-a-championship" team, but all I see is a bunch of ????.

[Mursilis]

Kool-Aid. Oh Yeah!!! I agree with you.

Thanks. Funny that you and I are 30+, and the two posters I've taken issue with are under 30. I'm guessing we both remember TRULY good 'skins teams, teams that were playoff contenders year-in and year-out, like the Colts and Pats are now. Those old 'skins teams were rightly called dynasties, but anyone seeing a 'skins dynasty now is just drinking the Kool-Aid.

[Peregrine]

I think what it comes down to is, as nice as it is to have a big tall fast dominant WR, even the best WR only touch the ball 6 times a game. Can they do extra things with those 6 touches? Yes. But it still is only 6 touches.

[robotfire]

Obviously, this analysis doesn't do a good job of measuring the transformative power of Owens in Philadelphia or Moss in New England. Owens helped the Eagles win more playoff games, not more regular-season games.

Weren't the Eagles 14-2 that year, and wasn't Owens injured for the entire playoffs that year (except for the Super Bowl)? It seems to me the ONLY thing Owens did was help win regular season games.

[Seabee1973]

I think this season will be a struggle for the skins as they find their Identity, But we will be headed in the right direction. The third year will be a big indicater of how things are going. Hopefully the team comes out and proves me wrong and wins 10-12 games but i dont see that happening right now.

[phishisthegreatstuff]

hmm.... the pats get mosss. did they improve? cowboys/eagles get TO did they improve? Don't know what this guy is talking about.