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Draft Tek simulation:Mock Draft rounds 1-7(I would be very,very happy with this!)


michael_33

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]']But I'm sure we'll find a DE and OT left and right' date=' right?

:rolleyes:

You don't have to think that Sweed is going to be great. You don't even have to think he's worth a 7th Rounder.

But you do have to have the least bit of credibility, intelligence, and validity to make proclamations like "OL AND DL ARE THE ONLY ANSWER! EVERY WR IN THIS DRAFT BLOWS!" Because that would constitute under that intelligence thing again.[/quote']

speaking of intelligence......

- the argument forwarded has been predicated on probabilities: in numbers to select from and in a subjective assessment of historical returns. and, if you like, in the immediate term quality of the wr options available for the next draft

- the argument is forwarded on a notion that a team requires a balanced strategy of roster management (draft, FA, unsigned rookies, extensions and trades) over time. the Skins have not used the draft to advantage when it comes to their lines......and it shows....regardless of whatever fantasies one happens to labor under. it has driven the team to an offensive line with one drafted starter possibly two depending on how you look at the merry-go-round that constitutes right tackle. the d-line has one drafted starter. both lines are aging...that is where an over-reliance on FA/trades take you.

- the argument is forwarded on the notion that the Skins have already invested disproportionately in the receiving corps. do we really want to invest our high value dollars in the wr position? aside from positional risk...what is the opportunity cost of doing so? all those dollars translate to lesser talent elsewhere.

What do the consistently successful teams in our division do first and foremost? answer: they bolster and sustain their lines. they build from the inside out. what have the Skins been doing? they have been building from the outside in. which stratgy has led to more NFL Championship game and SB appearances of late?

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http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/rankings/olb.html

a much more credible site then the 3 you posted

Right, the other two are stretches just to point to the trend of him moving up draft boards, but to call that site better than nfl draft scout is just uninformed. There's a reason those guys can actually charge money for their product. Need more proof?

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/kentwan-balmer?id=188

Check out the copyright at the bottom of the overview and analysis and tell me again that your website is much more credible. :laugh:

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]']What a Stupid Draft. Lets draft an Over Rated DT' date=' followed by a DE who only looks good because he played next to a really good DT.

I don't understand what part of that would make you happy.[/quote']

I don't analyze this type of stuff because I don't really watch the college game on a full-level. I'd guess to many of us these picks would look great.

Thankful I am for those who post those, I also appreciate others who help educate on the specifics.

How people get away with trolling like this when I get in trouble for other things is beyond me, but it helps me to read and define my thoughts at least.

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The safe pick is Brandon Albert. For every sweet WR that's a first round stud, there are 3 WR's who are busts. Have you ever heard of a 1st round guard that was a terrible bust? I would never go with a DE in round one. Ghost I agree with you on that point. For every Freeney, there are Marcus's Spears, Kenechi Udeze's and Erasmus James'. This Brandon Albert guy is a sure thing. He's such a low risk pick that Zorn, who has never really done this whole drafting process before should pick. It's easy to scout a guard. Not so much a WR or a DT.

You don't have to agree with me on everything, but at least you have reasoning behind your opinion, not to mention intelligence behind your post. :cheers:

1st of all Ghost...If we get Hackett,everything you said is null/void!We will NOT be drafting a WR in the 1st round nor should we...

2nd...Hey...I'm cool with taking Sweed if he drops all the way to the 2nd round...That would be a steal and a pick we can't let get away...

3rd..Why in the hell would we draft a guy in the first round when all this money is rapped up in MOSS and EL and then the money for Sweed as well,when we can get Hackett who not only will be cheaper than Sweed,but will probably be our #2 WR at worse?Sweed would have to work his way into the role and learn and while Hackett already has a leg up on the offense?Think buddy...use your brain MAN!We know Hackett can play.....What if we waste a pick on Sweed and he sucks?

4th...If we did nothing to our WR core,it would still be better than our D-line is right now without improving it....We get very little pass rush outside of Carter!Daniels is good against the run and that's it!Griffin is good but gets dbl-teamed all the time and is starting to get injured more frequently as well...Ghoston and Montomery are ok....They may or may not become solid players...I'm more impressed with Ghoston of the 2,but they are not blue chip pass rushing demons like this deep draft possess this year...

I don't think we should just draft 1 D-linman in the draft and 1st round...I think we need 2 or 3 to solidify the front and depth!1st rounder....maybe a 6th rounder...maybe a 7th round comp pick as well...

But I do want a WR ghost...I want Marcus Monk....Grab him in the 6th or 7th round...will that make ya happy...?lol

Yes, an injury-prone WR will solve our problems, in addition to drafting a DE in the 1st round where their Elite Success Rate is by far the lowest of all positions.

And for ****s sake, learn to quote.

OK!That sounds good!

Wonderful! Two unproven undrafted STers are the answer to our problem! Lets ignore DE as well, since we have Chris Wilson and Kevin Huntley, who projected to have almost 8 sacks last season. CHAMPIONSHIP! :doh:

There are also more first round WR busts than any other position.

No there aren't... There are just as many busts at DT and DE as WRs. But unlike WRs, those positions have a very good Elite Success Rate in the lower Rounds, whereas WRs have their best Elite Success Rate in the 1st round.

:laugh: So you point to 2 of the small number of 1st round DEs who have been at the top of the sack list in the past few years. Most of the top sack guys were picked after the 1st round; in many cases not until the 2nd day. Compare that to WR, where most of the top NFL wideouts were selected in the 1st or 2nd round. Check for yoursef. Yes you can point to a couple of people who were later round steals at WR, but they are by far the exception, not the rule.

Its a conveniant way to ignore the fact thats WRs in the 1st round is a much better idea than DEs in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Though, one could make the argument that OL is more successful then both of those positions.

you can put a spin on anything to prove a point.

Saying 1st Round WRs are more successful than 1st Round DEs is not a spin. Its a fact.

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speaking of intelligence......

- the argument forwarded has been predicated on probabilities: in numbers to select from and in a subjective assessment of historical returns. and, if you like, in the immediate term quality of the wr options available for the next draft

Fortunetely for us, in terms of immediate quality, WRs are one of the few positions where 1st Rounders dominate the Top Quality. DEs, on the other hand, are far more successful when drafted on the 2nd day. Consequentially, the intelligent thing to do in choosing when to draft a WR and a DE, would be to draft a Single WR in the 1st round, and draft plenty of DL on the 2nd day, to further increase the probablity of landing the next Great 5th Round DE, such as Jared Allen, or Trent Cole.

- the argument is forwarded on a notion that a team requires a balanced strategy of roster management (draft, FA, unsigned rookies, extensions and trades) over time. the Skins have not used the draft to advantage when it comes to their lines......and it shows....regardless of whatever fantasies one happens to labor under. it has driven the team to an offensive line with one drafted starter possibly two depending on how you look at the merry-go-round that constitutes right tackle. the d-line has one drafted starter. both lines are aging...that is where an over-reliance on FA/trades take you.

So signing FAs in the past warrants spending high draft picks on a position better suited to be drafted later in the draft?

I didn't say Sign a DE, I said draft one LATE. Turns out, this argument hasnt' furthered your point at all. On the contrary, it gives us reason to pass up DJ Hackett, the injury-prone STUD as some would like to imagine him. After all, you just said drafting, maybe even OVER drafting, will be needed to balance out the age of our team.

- the argument is forwarded on the notion that the Skins have already invested disproportionately in the receiving corps. do we really want to invest our high value dollars in the wr position? aside from positional risk...what is the opportunity cost of doing so? all those dollars translate to lesser talent elsewhere.

So because we have money spent on Two WRs already, lets just ignore that need. Hell, Randy Thomas makes a nice amount of money, and Kendall signed that contract last season he was dying for in NY, so lets ignore the Guard Position, as we already "invested disproportionately," at that position.

What do the consistently successful teams in our division do first and foremost? answer: they bolster and sustain their lines. they build from the inside out. what have the Skins been doing? they have been building from the outside in. which stratgy has led to more NFL Championship game and SB appearances of late?

The only team to win a Super Bowl title in our Division has been the New York Giants. When was the last time they drafted an OL or DL in the 1st Round? William Joseph. Where did Tuck, Strahan, and Osi come from? Look them up. They weren't 1st Rounders.

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And from your sig,you apparently want a WR that may pan out in his 2nd,3rd or 4th year...(Sweed)

May see the field if there's an injury to Moss or El....might have 10-20 catches his 1st season.....then probably pulls a groin in his second year that keeps him sidelined for 1/2 the season.....Then by the time he's in year 3,his contract is up and he's demanding a payraise or he's been traded or released cause he's a lockerroom problem or whatever...?

While Balmer and Jackson earn their starting roles and fortify the front 4 for the next decade...as we go on to win the division and the rest is history...

Nah......I like this draft better than your idea of picking up Sweed or some other WR bust!

and what leads you to believe that balmer and jackson are going to be pro bowl caliber players...obviously if they were locks to lead our team for 10 years then they would be taken higher than 21st in the first round and in the second round....

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I agree. If we don't grab a DL, preferably a DE, in one of the first two rounds then we have seriously overlooked a big need on the team.

A better thing to say would have been "if we don't draft a DE at all this draft, we'll have seriously overlooked a big need on the team."

In particular, DEs between the 4th and 6th Round, where they're most successful.

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Right, the other two are stretches just to point to the trend of him moving up draft boards, but to call that site better than nfl draft scout is just uninformed. There's a reason those guys can actually charge money for their product. Need more proof?

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/kentwan-balmer?id=188

Check out the copyright at the bottom of the overview and analysis and tell me again that your website is much more credible. :laugh:

draft scout has Kyle Spotts as the 24th ranked QB in the nation. He goes to my college and i see him play every game and he is god awful. Any website that has him rated period is horrible.

also the nfl website had a mock with aqib talib going 5th overall and sedrick ellis not going until round 2. if you want to take nfl.com's opinion about the draft then you will be the one very uninformed :laugh:

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]']Fortunetely for us' date=' in terms of immediate quality, WRs are one of the few positions where 1st Rounders dominate the Top Quality. DEs, on the other hand, are far more successful when drafted on the 2nd day. Consequentially, the intelligent thing to do in choosing when to draft a WR and a DE, would be to draft a Single WR in the 1st round, and draft plenty of DL on the 2nd day, to further increase the probablity of landing the next Great 5th Round DE, such as Jared Allen, or Trent Cole.

So signing FAs in the past warrants spending high draft picks on a position better suited to be drafted later in the draft?

I didn't say Sign a DE, I said draft one LATE. Turns out, this argument hasnt' furthered your point at all. On the contrary, it gives us reason to pass up DJ Hackett, the injury-prone STUD as some would like to imagine him. After all, you just said drafting, maybe even OVER drafting, will be needed to balance out the age of our team.

So because we have money spent on Two WRs already, lets just ignore that need. Hell, Randy Thomas makes a nice amount of money, and Kendall signed that contract last season he was dying for in NY, so lets ignore the Guard Position, as we already "invested disproportionately," at that position.

The only team to win a Super Bowl title in our Division has been the New York Giants. When was the last time they drafted an OL or DL in the 1st Round? William Joseph. Where did Tuck, Strahan, and Osi come from? Look them up. They weren't 1st Rounders.[/quote']

well...here's what I see going back a randomlychosen number of years. to make things more relevant, I looked at first round selections from no 20 on.

1) With the exception of 2005, receivers are not high priorities from 20 to the back end.

2) With one exception, none produce over 50 catches in their first seasons. In short, first round wrs in this range aren't likely to contribute much in their first season.

3) In seven drafts I see ONE bona fide star (Reggie Wayne). I see one who achieved some upper tier play (Javon Wlaker) but declined quickly.

4) I see only one rookie that had a stellar first season (Bowe). I see one that did not even play and two others that contributed very little.

In my mind...whatever lights your fire about wideouts drafted in our position escapes me. The evidence seems to suggest most teams do not agree with your strategic insight. If you like, we could go back and also see that o/d line are about twice as likely to be drafted from 20 to the end of the first round as are wrs.

2007

23 dwayne bowe.....70 catches

27 robert meacham...did not play/benched

2006

25 santonio holmes....49 receptions

2005

21 matt jones....36 catches

22 mark clayton....44 catches

27 roddy white.....29 receptions

2004

29 mike jenkins....7 catches

31 reshaun woods....7 catches

2003

no receivers selected after no 17

2002 (ashley lelie drafted at 19)

20 javon walker...23 receptions

2001

25 freddie mitchell...21 catches

30 reggie wayne....27 receptions

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draft scout has Kyle Spotts as the 24th ranked QB in the nation. He goes to my college and i see him play every game and he is god awful. Any website that has him rated period is horrible.

also the nfl website had a mock with aqib talib going 5th overall and sedrick ellis not going until round 2. if you want to take nfl.com's opinion about the draft then you will be the one very uninformed :laugh:

I don't think you understand, the 24th ranked qb is not a good thing... They point out the projected round and the guy isn't projected to get drafted and extremely unlikely to be picked up as an FA. Of course, your website of choice has only 21 spots listed so it couldn't even rank that guy 24th.

As for the nfl's own website, call me crazy but I'm pretty sure they're experts at their own business. That mock draft was done by Vic Carucci, unrelated to nfldraftscout.com. Nonetheless one guy offers his opinion for free and pays for it with advertisements; the other COMPANY charges their clients, including professional sports analysts and nfl coaches, money for their opinion. You tell me which one seems more reputable. I'm not going to say nfldraftcountdown is a bad source of information, because it isn't, but there isn't even a debate as to which is the better source.

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well...here's what I see going back a randomlychosen number of years. to make things more relevant, I looked at first round selections from no 20 on.

1) With the exception of 2005, receivers are not high priorities from 20 to the back end.

2) With one exception, none produce over 50 catches in their first seasons. In short, first round wrs in this range aren't likely to contribute much in their first season.

3) In seven drafts I see ONE bona fide star (Reggie Wayne). I see one who achieved some upper tier play (Javon Wlaker) but declined quickly.

4) I see only one rookie that had a stellar first season (Bowe). I see one that did not even play and two others that contributed very little.

In my mind...whatever lights your fire about wideouts drafted in our position escapes me. The evidence seems to suggest most teams do not agree with your strategic insight. If you like, we could go back and also see that o/d line are about twice as likely to be drafted from 20 to the end of the first round as are wrs.

2007

23 dwayne bowe.....70 catches

27 robert meacham...did not play/benched

2006

25 santonio holmes....49 receptions

2005

21 matt jones....36 catches

22 mark clayton....44 catches

27 roddy white.....29 receptions

2004

29 mike jenkins....7 catches

31 reshaun woods....7 catches

2003

no receivers selected after no 17

2002 (ashley lelie drafted at 19)

20 javon walker...23 receptions

2001

25 freddie mitchell...21 catches

30 reggie wayne....27 receptions

Your theory doesn't even explain whether WR was a top heavy class or abuddance like there is this year with ample amounts favoring late 1st to early 2nd.

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Your theory doesn't even explain whether WR was a top heavy class or abuddance like there is this year with ample amounts favoring late 1st to early 2nd.

1) It's not a theory.

2) I thought about relative abundance, the variance in team needs, etc, and decided it was irrelevant IRT what I was interested in: what has happened over a lengthy period of years at picks 20 to end of round. The pattern is there - the explanation can fall into any of multiple categories. but, for the sake of anwering your post, in a lean year the best receivers are gone by pick 20. and, in an abundant year (however that is measured)...the best receivers are also long gone by pick 20. either way...recent, FA impacted drafts, indicate that wrs are not heavy choice positions. moreover, contrary to the argument being advanced by some....picks 20 to end of round have not been frutiful when it comes to star wrs. I noted that on average twice as many linemen are selected. cursory review of the data in those years actually shows that in those picks CBs, TEs and LBs figure prominently.

3) This year is considered by many scouts/professional folks to have many good receivers...no outstanding receivers.

For my own purposes...while I think building the lines matters most...I can see going with BPA given that the "can't miss" types have disappeared from the selection ladder by pick 21.

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I don't think you understand, the 24th ranked qb is not a good thing... They point out the projected round and the guy isn't projected to get drafted and extremely unlikely to be picked up as an FA. Of course, your website of choice has only 21 spots listed so it couldn't even rank that guy 24th.

As for the nfl's own website, call me crazy but I'm pretty sure they're experts at their own business. That mock draft was done by Vic Carucci, unrelated to nfldraftscout.com. Nonetheless one guy offers his opinion for free and pays for it with advertisements; the other COMPANY charges their clients, including professional sports analysts and nfl coaches, money for their opinion. You tell me which one seems more reputable. I'm not going to say nfldraftcountdown is a bad source of information, because it isn't, but there isn't even a debate as to which is the better source.

of course i understand that the #24 ranked QB isn't the best thing. But it's not a fair ranking when I see this kid lose games week after week with dumb decisions, thinking he can win games single handedly by himself. When the game is in the bag, he also finds a way to lose it with a dumb play. i find it really hard to believe that there aren't tons of better QBs that can be ranked ahead of him unless there are only 24 QB's in the draft.

i know the mock has no relation to draft scout. i was stating that nfl.com uses joke mock drafts like that and you were pointing out that the scouting reports were done by draft scout. I was saying that just because their reports are on the nfl website doesn't mean that they are golden like you are trying to make me believe.

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Ok so we saw all those 1st year stats for WR at around the 21st pick. Lets look at D line with the same scenario. I'm leaving NTs out because their stats don't say much about them since they aren't really meant to go after the passer or make a bunch of tackles.

2001:

29 Ryan Pickett, DT...Started 0 games. Played in 11. Had 19 tackles and .5 sacks.

2002:

22 Bryan Thomas, DE...0 games started, played in 15, had 9 total tackles and .5 sacks.

25 Charles Grant, DE...Good 1st year. 37 tackles, 7 sacks.

2003:

18 Calvin Pace, DE...Started all 16 games but had only 1 sack. Never did much in AZ, was recently traded to the Jets.

25 William Joseph, DE...0 games started, played in 14, had 7 tackles and 1 sack.

32 Tyler Brayton, DE...16 games started, 61 tackles, 2.5 sacks. Numbers have just gone down since, though. Rides the pine now.

2004:

18 Will Smith, DE...Good rookie season. 40 tackles, 7 sacks.

23 Marcus Tubbs, DT...3 games started, played in 11, had 13 tackles and 1 sack.

27 Jason Babin, DE...Started all 16 games and had a decent 1st year with 63 tackles and 4 sacks. Never got better though and was traded to the Seahawks.

2005:

18 Erasmus James, DE...Another decent but not great 1st year. Started 9 games, played in 15 and had 4 sacks.

20 Marcus Spears, DE...Started 10 games, played in 16. Had 31 tackles, 1.5 sacks.

28 Louis Castillo, DE...Started 15 games, played in 16. Decent rookie year. 49 tackles and 3.5 sacks.

2006:

20 Tamba Hali, DE...Good rookie year. 58 tackles, 8 sacks. Then again he was playing opposite Jared Allen. But still a good rookie outing.

26 John McCargo, DT...No starts, played in 5 games. 6 tackles, 0 sacks.

2007:

17 Jarvis Moss, DE...Started 1 game, played in 6. 12 tackles, 1 sack.

26 Anthony Spencer, DE (converted to OLB)...Started 6 games, played in 16. Had 36 tackles, 3 sacks. Decent but nothing special.

So out of those 16 guys taken somewhere around where we're picking this year there were 3 who had more than 4 sacks their 1st year. So the chances of picking up some immediate impact player or stud at DE or DT where we are picking don't seem to be that great (actually it isn't all that great even with guys higher up in the draft either...but I'm just going along with your parameters). Offensive line is tougher to tell since stats can't give you any kind of story. However, OTs taken in the 1st or 2nd DO tend to be better than guys from later rounds. OT is not our biggest area of need right now on the O line, IMO. Guard is. And it seems that most pro scouts and teams know that you can get excellent Guards in rounds after the 1st.

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I like Devin Thomas for our first pick. The more I compare him with Kelly and Sweed, the more he's standing out to me. I like his speed (not 40 time, but field speed) and he's also dangerous after the catch. He's got the size as well. I think he's gonna do well in the NFL.

Picking a DT or DE in the first is a pipe dream for those of you that keep harping on it. It aint happenin'. We also won't pick a CB. We have enough high rounders invested back there. CB will be at the very highest a third rounder.

I think the bpa regardless of position available in the first will be a WR and that's what I feel our pick will be. One of Kelly, Sweed or Thomas will be there and I don't think we pass any of those three up

For our second pick I'm guessing we might go DL or OL

I'd love to move up for Jordy Nelson in the third (that's right, I'd take two WR's. Our pass game left a lot to be desired last season and we kept battling injuries) If we can't do that and a good O or D lineman is available, we should go that route

3rd round comp pick should go to bpa between OL, DL and CB

4th same with a possible LB thrown into the mix

5th maybe look at a FB along with other bpa

6th bpa

7th bpa

7th bpa

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1) your retorts only address one part of my pattern assessment...cherry picking as it were

A. I looked at the picks numerically over 7 years: linemen far outnumbered wrs. that reflects multiple criteria...including risk assessment.

B. You haven't addresed the absolute numbers of players who went on to be stars/top tier players. I have only one wr achieving that with Walker having dropped from the picture. There are mutiple o/d linemen who have gone on to be top tier players. It's a common sense argument: more are drafted, larger pool to pick from. In fact, after top 10, it appears that there are a good deal of quality wrs who are selcted deeper in the draft as oppsoed to 20 to end of first round. Sorry, you may not like it, but those selections simply do not marry up to the vision you are pushing: a gee whizz awesome fix our problems wr worth first round dollars destinde for stardom.

I'll take a lineman (O or D) over a high risk wr. Again, I reiterate that if you look at the data...those picks are where the CB, LB and TE steals of the draft really happen. I am thoroughly unimpressed with this years crop of receivers, don't believe these picks generally result in top tier wrs, and believe the Skins have aging/injury prone lines on a team that is not on the cusp of a Championship. I'd be happy with BPA regardess of position, content with a linemen, skeptical about the ROI one can expect from a wr selected with the 21st pick. The happiness quotient moves from high to low as we move from the former to the latter.

Who knows...now that the winds blowing the Skins' weather vane are coming from a different direction...we'll acually see some intelligent, long-term thinking in how the roster is built/rebuilt.

btw

- in 2006 Kiwanuka was a DE out of BC...regardless of how he is currenly used; nice try though!

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1) your retorts only address one part of my pattern assessment...cherry picking as it were

A. I looked at the picks numerically over 7 years: linemen far outnumbered wrs. that reflects multiple criteria...including risk assessment.

B. You haven't addresed the absolute numbers of players who went on to be stars/top tier players. I have only one wr achieving that with Walker having dropped from the picture. There are mutiple o/d linemen who have gone on to be top tier players. It's a common sense argument: more are drafted, larger pool to pick from. In fact, after top 10, it appears that there are a good deal of quality wrs who are selcted deeper in the draft as oppsoed to 20 to end of first round. Sorry, you may not like it, but those selections simply do not marry up to the vision you are pushing: a gee whizz awesome fix our problems wr worth first round dollars destinde for stardom.

I'll take a lineman (O or D) over a high risk wr. Again, I reiterate that if you look at the data...those picks are where the CB, LB and TE steals of the draft really happen. I am thoroughly unimpressed with this years crop of receivers, don't believe these picks generally result in top tier wrs, and believe the Skins have aging/injury prone lines on a team that is not on the cusp of a Championship. I'd be happy with BPA regardess of position, content with a linemen, skeptical about the ROI one can expect from a wr selected with the 21st pick. The happiness quotient moves from high to low as we move from the former to the latter.

I like how you changed your stance, when i said the same exact thing to you:laugh:

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I like Devin Thomas for our first pick.

Devin Thomas certainly has the athleticism and good hands, but he makes me cautious. The fact that he has only had ONE good year would make me not take him in the 1st. He was a JUCO transfer to MSU. His Sophomore season he caught 6 passes in the 10 games he played in. Then he has a great Junior season and declares for the draft. I think he is going to be a project at the NFL level. Could end up very good, but certainly isn't going to be as polished as a guy with more experience.

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