WP: Al Qaeda in Iraq reportedly Crippled

[SkinsHokieFan]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/14/AR2007101401245.html?hpid=topnews

Al-Qaeda In Iraq Reported Crippled

Many Officials, However, Fear Its Resilience

By Thomas E. Ricks and Karen DeYoung

Washington Post Staff Writers

Monday, October 15, 2007; A01

The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.

But as the White House and its military commanders plan the next phase of the war, other officials have cautioned against taking what they see as a premature step that could create strategic and political difficulties for the United States. Such a declaration could fuel criticism that the Iraq conflict has become a civil war in which U.S. combat forces should not be involved. At the same time, the intelligence community, and some in the military itself, worry about underestimating an enemy that has shown great resilience in the past.

"I think it would be premature at this point," a senior intelligence official said of a victory declaration over AQI, as the group is known. Despite recent U.S. gains, he said, AQI retains "the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks." Earlier periods of optimism, such as immediately following the June 2006 death of AQI founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a U.S. air raid, not only proved unfounded but were followed by expanded operations by the militant organization.

There is widespread agreement that AQI has suffered major blows over the past three months. Among the indicators cited is a sharp drop in suicide bombings, the group's signature attack, from more than 60 in January to around 30 a month since July. Captures and interrogations of AQI leaders over the summer had what a senior military intelligence official called a "cascade effect," leading to other killings and captures. The flow of foreign fighters through Syria into Iraq has also diminished, although officials are unsure of the reason and are concerned that the broader al-Qaeda network may be diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The deployment of more U.S. and Iraqi forces into AQI strongholds in Anbar province and the Baghdad area, as well as the recruitment of Sunni tribal fighters to combat AQI operatives in those locations, has helped to deprive the militants of a secure base of operations, U.S. military officials said. They are less and less coordinated, more and more fragmented," Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the second-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq, said recently. Describing frayed support structures and supply lines, Odierno estimated that the group's capabilities have been "degraded" by 60 to 70 percent since the beginning of the year.

Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, chief of the Joint Special Operations Command's operations in Iraq, is the chief promoter of a victory declaration and believes that AQI has been all but eliminated, the military intelligence official said. But Adm. William J. Fallon, the chief of the U.S. Central Command, which oversees Iraq and the rest of the Middle East, is urging restraint, the official said. The military intelligence official, like others interviewed for this report, refused to speak on the record about Iraq assessments and strategy.

Senior U.S. commanders on the ground, including Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of U.S. forces in Iraq, have long complained that the Central Command, along with the CIA, is too negative in its analyses. On this issue, however, Petraeus agrees with Fallon, the military intelligence official said.

For each assessment of progress against AQI, there is a cautionary note that comes from long and often painful experience. Despite the increased killings and captures of AQI members, Odierno said, "it only takes three people" to construct and detonate a suicide car bomb that can "kill thousands." The goal, he said, is to make each attack less effective and lengthen the periods between them.

Right now, said another U.S. official who declined even to be identified by the agency he works for, the data are "insufficient and difficult to measure."

"AQI is definitely taking some hits," the official said. "There is definite progress and that is undeniable good news. But what we don't know is how long it will last . . . and whether it's sustainable. . . . They have withstood withering pressure for a long period of time." Three months, he said, is not long enough to consider a trend sustainable.

Views of the extent to which AQI has been vanquished also reflect differences over the extent to which it operates independently from Osama bin Laden's central al-Qaeda organization based in Pakistan. "Everyone has an opinion about how franchisement of al-Qaeda works," a senior White House official said. "Is it through central control or is it decentralized?" The answer to that question, the official said, affects "your ability to determine how successfully [AQI] has been defeated or neutralized. Is it 'game over'?"

In Baghdad, the White House official said, the group's "area of operations has been reduced quite a bit for a variety of reasons, some good and some bad." Three years of sectarian fighting have eliminated many mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods. Those areas had been the most fertile and accessible places for AQI, which is composed of extremist Sunnis, to attack Shiite civilians, security forces and government officials. But the death of mixed neighborhoods also has made another Bush administration priority -- promoting political reconciliation -- more difficult. The expanded presence of U.S. troops in combat outposts in many parts of Baghdad has also put pressure on AQI, but a major test of gains against the organization will come when the U.S. military begins to turn security in those areas over to Iraqi forces next year.

Recent suicide bombings in northern Iraq have convinced some officials that AQI has moved its operations in that direction. But the officials said they do not know whether AQI militants have permanently decamped from Baghdad and Anbar or whether they are merely lying low in anticipation of a U.S. departure or the failure of Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to end the sectarian divisions that AQI fostered and now feeds upon.

While a victory declaration might have the "psychological aspect" of discouraging recruitment to a perceived lost cause, the White House official said, advantages overall would be minimal. "I recognize that there are pros to saying, 'Hey, listen, the bad guys are on the run.' " But if AQI were later able to demonstrate residual capabilities with a series of bombings, "even though it was temporary," he said, "the question becomes: 'How does this play out in terms of public opinion?' "

[Destino]

Please God let us declare victory over this group! The biggest PR mistake we've made in this war was not immediately declaring victory and distancing ourselves fro Iraq's post war problems. Whoever decided to have the President define victory as a stable and democratic Iraq is a damn fool.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Please God let us declare victory over this group! The biggest PR mistake we've made in this war was not immediately declaring victory and distancing ourselves fro Iraq's post war problems. Whoever decided to have the President define victory as a stable and democratic Iraq is a damn fool.

I am inclined to agree with this

If AQ in Iraq is crippled, say "hey we have defeated Al Qaeda in Iraq" and then pull back to bases in the desert in case they rear their ugly head again

I have a feeling though the Iraqi population won't let that happen, and will be more then happy to continue to pound AQ after the hell they put them through from 2004-2007

[DeanCollins]

that happened a few years ago right?

Dubya took good care of the guys too

[zoony]

I'm not sure how you can ever really declare victory over an idealogy.

You can bottle one up though. This is good news :applause:

[Destino]

I'm not sure how you can ever really declare victory over an idealogy.

You can bottle one up though. This is good news :applause:

You can declare victory whenever you like. Just find a good time to do it and then send out a fleet of press releases as you march away to beautiful music with fist in the air! We failed to do this after the mission accomplished declaration. We should have. We did win the damn war in amazing fashion... the problem was Rumsfeld was an arrogant fool and underestimated the troop level for an occupation. Now that we have a chance to declare victory again.. do it and get moving while the time is right!

[SkinsHokieFan]

Bumpin this up for the morning crowd

[@DCGoldPants]

If AQ is done and the situation doesn't change. Would certain people be forced to admit that AQ and the Insurgents aren't usually the same thing?

[Sarge]

Please God let us declare victory over this group! The biggest PR mistake we've made in this war was not immediately declaring victory and distancing ourselves fro Iraq's post war problems. Whoever decided to have the President define victory as a stable and democratic Iraq is a damn fool.

Agreed. Now would be the time, and make a statement that since they are in such a weakened state, the Iraqi military is now capable of dealing with them.

Pull back to our superbase with a warning that if you show up again, we'll be back

Declare victory. Have a big homecoming parade. Medals for everyone :applause:

[Spaceman Spiff]

You can declare victory whenever you like. Just find a good time to do it and then send out a fleet of press releases as you march away to beautiful music with fist in the air! We failed to do this after the mission accomplished declaration. We should have. We did win the damn war in amazing fashion... the problem was Rumsfeld was an arrogant fool and underestimated the troop level for an occupation. Now that we have a chance to declare victory again.. do it and get moving while the time is right!

I declare victory on this thread.

:allhail:

[SkinsHokieFan]

If AQ is done and the situation doesn't change. Would certain people be forced to admit that AQ and the Insurgents aren't usually the same thing?

I think a lot of people realize that. Which is why the "national reconciliation" is so key, however that doesn't appear to be happening

Right now the President needs to define the specific goal in Iraq. We took Saddam, there were no WMD's so now what? The battle against AQ is essentialy over ever since the Sunni's turned their guns on them

So now what Mr. President?

I think the vast majority of people would want the declaration of victory, move 50-75k troops into the desert, move 10-15k into Afghanistan and bring the rest home

Keep up the alliances with the Sunni's who have fought Al Qaeda, and bring in more diplomatic big guns to get the government stabilized. Keep helping in training Iraqi troops, and when neccessary do joint exercises with them

One thing that has been very apparent since the fall of the Ottoman Empire is Muslims are not very good fighters, so constant training and review of the Iraqi troops will be key

[@DCGoldPants]

I'm not so sure of that. I think if you ask 100 Americans "Who is attacking our troops and other Iraqi's?" a huge majority would say AQ, and not be able to tell the difference.

I think the admin wants it that way.

[jbooma]

If only we can say the same in Afganistan and Pakistan

[JMS]

I am inclined to agree with this

If AQ in Iraq is crippled, say "hey we have defeated Al Qaeda in Iraq" and then pull back to bases in the desert in case they rear their ugly head again

I have a feeling though the Iraqi population won't let that happen, and will be more then happy to continue to pound AQ after the hell they put them through from 2004-2007

I agree that if we declaired victory and retreated it would be a smart move. It would also be a redicoulously transparent attempt to mask the incompetence of this administration. Remember, there was no Al Quada in Iraq before we invaded. They went there to fight us, and they draw their support not from Iraq, but from Lebonon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi. Countries where we can not go. The appeal of Al Quada on these people who were not Al Quada before our invasion is George Bush's gift to Arab nationalism. One thing the Arabs agree on, perhaps the only thing they agree upon; is that occupation and colinization by imperial powers is universally bad. That's what they believe the US is doing in Iraq. Setting up permanent bases, setting up a permanent vassle state on Arab land. The Arabs already lived through several hundred years of Turk, English and French occupation. It's abuses are known to every arab child.

That is what has swelled the ranks of Al Quada, that is why we have Egyptions, Saudis, and Syrians in Iraq and not Afghanis. Sure Bush should declair victory and withdrawl, but he won't. AlQuada never had anything to do with our invasion of Iraq, and weakenning it there after we introduced it there is hardly an attractive reason for Bush to give up on his real reasons for being in Iraq.

[SkinsHokieFan]

I'm not so sure of that. I think if you ask 100 Americans "Who is attacking our troops and other Iraqi's?" a huge majority would say AQ, and not be able to tell the difference.

I think the admin wants it that way.

I am sure if you asked 100 Americans a lot of things you would have completely retarted answers

Not sure what that has to do with the evidence on the ground though

[JMS]

I am sure if you asked 100 Americans a lot of things you would have completely retarted answers

Not sure what that has to do with the evidence on the ground though

The evidence on the ground is that Al Quada is only responsible for around 10% of the attacks on American troops. That number hasn't changed in almost 5 years of conflict.

[GibbsFactor]

Considering that they weren't there 5 years ago, they better be crippled. :doh:

[Cskin]

Oh dear... it appears the worst possible outcome for the Dems is coming true.... victory in Iraq. As violence further drops, and the Iraqi Army and Security forces continues to stand up.... it's going to be whole lot of trouble next year for the Defeat-O-Crats. Imagine... now they'll have to run on something else other than hanging a military defeat around the Bush and the Repub necks. Can't see the raising of taxes and extended entitlement programs (socialism) being a real winner at the polls.

Huh...Harry Reid said the war was lost? :doh:

[jpyaks3]

Oh dear... it appears the worst possible outcome for the Dems is coming true.... victory in Iraq. As violence further drops, and the Iraqi Army and Security forces continues to stand up.... it's going to be whole lot of trouble next year for the Defeat-O-Crats. Imagine... now they'll have to run on something else other than hanging a military defeat around the Bush and the Repub necks. Can't see the raising of taxes and extended entitlement programs (socialism) being a real winner at the polls.

Huh...Harry Reid said the war was lost? :doh:

Congrats at this point we have crippled a group that was not in Iraq prior to our arrival. So wait what exactly have we won? An extremely weak state in an extremely critical area? Billions of dollers of tax payers money wasted? Thousands of American troops wounded or killed?

This is good news that we are getting back to where we were in 2002 before the invasion but this is by no means a victory. Right now we need to cut our losses as soon as we are sure that the Iraqi's can keep Al Qaeda at bay and hope that the Iraqi's can form a government that can work for the Iraqi's, it doesnt have to be defined by the U.S. administration it simply needs to work for the Iraqi's. Now lets focus on the real problem, retaking Afghanistan and crippling the real center of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan + Pakistan.

[Predicto]

Great news! Let's not screw this up, now....

[Sarge]

Congrats at this point we have crippled a group that was not in Iraq prior to our arrival. So wait what exactly have we won? An extremely weak state in an extremely critical area? Billions of dollers of tax payers money wasted? Thousands of American troops wounded or killed?

This is good news that we are getting back to where we were in 2002 before the invasion but this is by no means a victory. Right now we need to cut our losses as soon as we are sure that the Iraqi's can keep Al Qaeda at bay and hope that the Iraqi's can form a government that can work for the Iraqi's, it doesnt have to be defined by the U.S. administration it simply needs to work for the Iraqi's. Now lets focus on the real problem, retaking Afghanistan and crippling the real center of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan + Pakistan.

We've gained plenty. About 20,000 more *******s that were either terrorists or wannabe terrorist have ceased to exist. We have Iran surrounded with military bases that weren't there prior to 2002.

AQ apparently has spent their wad in Iraq. That is a good thing

Too bad so many people can't seem to find it in them to feel happy about that :doh:

[jpyaks3]

We've gained plenty. About 20,000 more *******s that were either terrorists or wannabe terrorist have ceased to exist. We have Iran surrounded with military bases that weren't there prior to 2002.

AQ apparently has spent their wad in Iraq. That is a good thing

Too bad so many people can't seem to find it in them to feel happy about that :doh:

This is definately good news that we have crippled Al Qaeda in Iraq. Now that we have crippled Al Qaeda in Iraq lets let the Sunnis finish them off, we need to focus on where the real center of our enemy is Afghanistan/Pakistan, we need to focus on crippling that center. We now need to hope that the Iraqi's can form a government that can at a minimum provide security and secure borders. This needs to come from the Iraqi's not from an exterior source, the US administration, throughout history we have been unable to force democracy on a state, this has been shown throughout the world, Africa, South America, Middle East. All democracies have had to form from within, so if democracy is our goal in Iraq like Bush has stated lets learn from history and allow the Iraqi's to build their own democracy not just a version that is propped up by our current administration. This is the perfect time for us to refocus our priorities, taking out Al Qaeda rather then occupying Iraq.

[JMS]

Oh dear... it appears the worst possible outcome for the Dems is coming true.... victory in Iraq. As violence further drops, and the Iraqi Army and Security forces continues to stand up.... it's going to be whole lot of trouble next year for the Defeat-O-Crats. Imagine... now they'll have to run on something else other than hanging a military defeat around the Bush and the Repub necks. Can't see the raising of taxes and extended entitlement programs (socialism) being a real winner at the polls.

Huh...Harry Reid said the war was lost? :doh:

We can only hope that you are correct. However it seems much more likely that you are wrong and that you have once again bought into the lies of this administration.

Fact is that in July and August violence is always down in Iraq because the temperature is around 120-130 degrees. In our five year history in Iraq traditionally violence always drops in July and August when compared to Apirl, and May.

Coarse since you blindly predict sucess as a matter of faith you wouldn't have the need to actually check casuality statistics to note that compared to last July,August and September casualty figures were actually up, not down nationaly in Iraq. Nor would you be motivated to observe that the advances we've made in some provinces have been more than offset by the increase in violent attacks in other provinces where our surge of 20% actually meant a reduced American presence as we overloaded problem provinces...

I for one hope you are right. I just think ignorance of the facts and political sound bytes are a poor substitute for rationally considering all the evidence before one draws ones conclusion..

The facts would suggest that casualties always dip in the summer months and that in general casualty rates from one year to the next have continued to escalate nationally in Iraq throughout the surge.

We shouldn't be supprised by this because that is what Army's own inteligence as well as the combined inteligence opinions of all inteligence gathering segments of the United States government stated several months ago.

Casualites for May, June, July, August, Sept

2003 42, 36, 49, 43, 33

2004 84, 50, 58, 75, 87

2005 88, 83, 58, 85, 52

2006 79, 63, 46, 66, 77

2007 131, 108, 87, 88, 70

http://icasualties.org/oif/

[JMS]

I'm bumping this.. cause so many people believe things are getting better in Iraq. Want someone to try to explain it to me..

[ixcuincle]

Civilian casualties down , Surge appears to be working , and as the title of the thread says , Al - Qaeda in Iraq crippled. There's your explanation. Now if only the Sunni and Shi'a could hold hands and sing "Kumbaya"...Honestly I have seen nothing but good news recently in the news , esp. the turnaround of Al-Anbar province , a province that used to be one of the most dangerous in Iraq.

I hope all this good news can continue when the US pulls out.