Redskins Draft Hype -- Don't get too excited

[Hooper]

http://deuceofdavenport.blogspot.com/

JLC posted a link to this blog. The writer makes some good points. Among them --

"Do they want to have even less picks so they can trade up for Calvin Johnson, a wide receiver, who would fit well on a team that already has at least 4 signed for the next 4 years?"

"From the drafts 2000-2005 the Redskins have just 9 players they drafted, by my count, still on their roster...out of the 34 players selected, the fewest amount of total players drafted in the NFL in that period. One of those 9 just resigned with the team through free agency this off season (Fred Smoot). That is, 26% of the players that they can get relatively cheap and that they can teach their own system for several years, actually stay with the team."

"The biggest indication of the Redskins scouting failures and lack of draft success is their mid to low round selections. These are the players the scouting staff needs to hit on so that the team can get talent to fill out the roster, at a cheap price for several years in contract length, occasionally hitting a "home run" with a player that was undervalued at the draft. Denver, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, all good teams who repeatedly make excellent late round, 2nd day, draft picks. The Redskins again, fall short.

Since 2000-2005, the Redskins 2nd day picks have numbered 21...the number of players still on their roster is numbered 2. Rock Cartwright ('02) and Nehemiah Broughton ('05)...both 7th round picks. That number, again, is way too low."

"No wonder they feel they can do better in free agency and trades, their draft history is horrible!

At first glance that argument makes a bit of sense, until you realize that the reason the Redskins go nuts in free agency is because the scouting staff is not capable enough to determine the skill level or value of a player that plays 3 or 4 years in college and needs to see how a player does with 3 or 4 years in the pros to determine if the player is good or not."

[Warhead36]

Yep, pretty much preaching to the choir. That doesn't mean I'm not going to be excited when the 6th pick rolls around come this Saturday though.

[thelarkascend1ng]

well whatever happens, i won't be getting excited for saturday.

[stwasm]

http://deuceofdavenport.blogspot.com/

JLC posted a link to this blog. The writer makes some good points. Among them --

"Do they want to have even less picks so they can trade up for Calvin Johnson, a wide receiver, who would fit well on a team that already has at least 4 signed for the next 4 years?"

"From the drafts 2000-2005 the Redskins have just 9 players they drafted, by my count, still on their roster...out of the 34 players selected, the fewest amount of total players drafted in the NFL in that period. One of those 9 just resigned with the team through free agency this off season (Fred Smoot). That is, 26% of the players that they can get relatively cheap and that they can teach their own system for several years, actually stay with the team."

"The biggest indication of the Redskins scouting failures and lack of draft success is their mid to low round selections. These are the players the scouting staff needs to hit on so that the team can get talent to fill out the roster, at a cheap price for several years in contract length, occasionally hitting a "home run" with a player that was undervalued at the draft. Denver, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, all good teams who repeatedly make excellent late round, 2nd day, draft picks. The Redskins again, fall short.

Since 2000-2005, the Redskins 2nd day picks have numbered 21...the number of players still on their roster is numbered 2. Rock Cartwright ('02) and Nehemiah Broughton ('05)...both 7th round picks. That number, again, is way too low."

"No wonder they feel they can do better in free agency and trades, their draft history is horrible!

At first glance that argument makes a bit of sense, until you realize that the reason the Redskins go nuts in free agency is because the scouting staff is not capable enough to determine the skill level or value of a player that plays 3 or 4 years in college and needs to see how a player does with 3 or 4 years in the pros to determine if the player is good or not."

Reading this just made me throw up in my mouth. Monkeys could do a better job of evaluating talent than the crew we have now. And management raises prices and sells "obstructed view" seats. Pathetic!

[ThePreciating]

Why you all cryin. John Riggins was drafted by the Jets. That should be enough to sell you on free agency forever, you bunch of sissy baby girls.

I wanna be like the Colts! I wanna be like New England! WELL THEN MOVE.

HAIL.

[CM916]

Kili Lefotu (OL, 2006 7th rounder) makes that three 2nd-day picks still on the roster. We resigned him in January and shipped him out to Germany.

When looking at our draft cuts, I think it's also important to look at the numerous undrafted FAs we always pick up. Sometimes we find something here too, like Ade Jimoh or Mike Espy.

[TheLongshot]

Well, anything before 2004 is going to be that bad, if just from the fact that none of the coaches who drafted those guys are here anymore. (Not to mention that the scouting department has changed a lot.)

But, there is a point in 2004 and 2005 being disappointments. 6 picks and so far only one player to show for it. Granted, McCune probably would still be here if Miami didn't pick him up, but it doesn't make things any less disappointing.

Course, the 2006 class looks much more promising, with Golston looking like one of those gems and Doughty looking at least like a fine special teamer.

Jason

[SkinsFanAnt]

Why you all cryin. John Riggins was drafted by the Jets. That should be enough to sell you on free agency forever, you bunch of sissy baby girls.

I wanna be like the Colts! I wanna be like New England! WELL THEN MOVE.

HAIL.

This is stupid. I wanna WIN. That's the only reason why fans want our team to be like the Colts and New England....because they freaking WIN. Or do you want a Redskins version of the Arizona Cardinals instead? Back in the day we drafted well in the high mid rounds which is why we consistently had 9 and 10+ win seasons. The recent years we have consistently sucked.

I guess you like your team sucking.....

[chronicdesi]

Why you all cryin. John Riggins was drafted by the Jets. That should be enough to sell you on free agency forever, you bunch of sissy baby girls.

I wanna be like the Colts! I wanna be like New England! WELL THEN MOVE.

HAIL.

There is no hiding that the draft can do wonders for your team IF you can draft well. Yeah, we've had a few good to great FA signings, but how many championships have we won the last 15 years? None.

Teams like Indy and New England and Philly that draft well, have won more championships and have been in more playoff games than us. There is no doubt that drafting can be great if done correctly.

For every FA that we signed that was great, philly, NE and indy can boost two at least that turned out well, for half of what we paid.

[ThePreciating]

If we won a super bowl every 15 years, that would be twice as often as the average team should be able to win a super bowl.

We're almost at the end of what has been a grueling rebuilding process. Sure draft picks may have sped it up, but I really like the light at the end of this tunnel. We're a high-character team with the tools to win. All we need now is a little extra, a la CJ.

[stwasm]

Why you all cryin. John Riggins was drafted by the Jets. That should be enough to sell you on free agency forever, you bunch of sissy baby girls.

I wanna be like the Colts! I wanna be like New England! WELL THEN MOVE.

HAIL.

The point is those teams are able to balance free agency with selecting draft picks and grooming those draft picks to be long-term answers to the football team. We haven't come close to that and Hooper's thread-starter demonstrates why. The fact that you have to go all the way back to the '70s to demonstrate a pro for free agency instead of looking at the current century shows how flawed we are. Until we get a competent GM and overhaul the scouting department so that it is capable of finding those low-round gems instead of just relying on stars, we'll be mediocre to bad for a VERY long time.

[Stormy]

We're almost at the end of what has been a grueling rebuilding process. Sure draft picks may have sped it up, but I really like the light at the end of this tunnel. We're a high-character team with the tools to win. All we need now is a little extra, a la CJ.

We're at "the end of a rebuilding process"... wow?? Our entire offensive line is 30+ years of age this season, and we don't have a single young reserve who's ever taken a snap, nor one who was selected with a high draft pick to groom for the future. Our defensive line consists of a 34 year old LDE, a 32 year old primary backup LDE, a pair of 32 and 30 year old DTs coming off injury (backed by a solid rookie DT), and a 28 year old LDE. 3/4 of our LB corps is 31+ years of age, with a single rookie who is working his way into the rotation. Even half of our defensive backfield projects to be 29-32 years old. And at least half of that aforementioned group, is either coming off of serious injury, or has a serious injury history.

We have not been following a solid rebuilding vision or philosophy, rather we've been scatter shooting in the vague limbo of limited drafts, amidst a "win now at all costs" mentality. What you propose is to complete this process by throwing away our present and future drafts needed to replenish these overlooked units, in favor of grabbing your fantasy WR.

The good news, is that if we avoid such a foolish mistake, properly utilize this year's high pick, and begin to keep our valuable draft picks intact starting in 2008, while not overindulging in the F.A. route - then we can actually begin fortifying the team through a legitimate and perpetual rebuilding process, which allows a solid team to win in the present, while still building for the future.

[skinsn24]

Just another bunch of good points as to how horrible this organization has been at building a team.

Stormy your post is right on.

[McMetal]

It just doesn't make sense that you would spend top dollar on the best facilities, coaching staff, free agents, etc and yet woefully neglect the scouting department.

Why is this one area of the FO seemingly not held accountable for their failures?

If we ever got this aspect of the franchise together, the team would be unstoppable.

[TheLongshot]

It just doesn't make sense that you would spend top dollar on the best facilities, coaching staff, free agents, etc and yet woefully neglect the scouting department.

You know that the scouting department was overhauled when Gibbs arrived, right?

Jason

[Rufus T Firefly]

I think it's only fair to judge the curent regime by what they've done. So, Gibbs has been in charge for three years. His first day picks have been solid. From his first two years, only one of 6 second day picks remains, which certainly isn't good but last year's looks a lot better.

Overall, I think we have to grade Gibbs' drafts as at least decent, but the problem remains the lack of picks we keep.

[TheLongshot]

Overall, I think we have to grade Gibbs' drafts as at least decent, but the problem remains the lack of picks we keep.

All of which Gibbs is looking to improve at. I'm hoping last year's draft is a start of a trend.

Jason

[pjfootballer]

Why does everyone think 30 yrs old is a death sentence in football? there have been many, many players still playing at a high rate into their 30's. Is Peyton Manning slowing down? He's 31. Riggins prime WAS his 30's. I know it depends on the position you play and the shape a player stays in, but I think the number 30 gets a little too much credit for branding players as OLD.

[Rufus T Firefly]

All of which Gibbs is looking to improve at. I'm hoping last year's draft is a start of a trend.

Jason

Sorry, didn't see your first post in this thread. I just basically re-stated what you had already said.

[elkabong82]

I did the work using New Englands official site and ours, to determine how many players we each have drafted from 2000-2005, how many are still here, how many are starters, how many selections in rds 1-3, and rds 4-7, and I came to a percentage to measure various successes.

Please keep in mind that these stats are in application to this thread. I believe measuring as far back as 2000 is irrelevant because the teams had different coaches and different operating methods, especially the Skins.

Anyways:

Redskins current players still on team: Carlos Rogers (CB, 1st) Jason Campbell (QB, 1st)

Nehemiah Broughton (RB/FB, 7th) Sean Taylor (S, 1st) Chris Cooley (TE, 3rd) Ladell Betts (RB, 2nd) Rock Cartwright (RB/KR, 7th) Fred Smoot (CB, 2nd) Chris Samuels (OT, 1st)

The Skins have had 36 draft picks from 2000-2005, 15 in rounds 1-3, 21 in rounds 4-7. Of the 15 picks in rounds 1-3, there are 7 currently on our team. Of the 21 picks in rounds 4-7, there are 2 currently on our team.

Patriots current players still on team: Tom Brady (QB, 6th) Richard Seymour (DE, 1st) Matt Light (OT, 2nd) Jarvis Green (DL, 4th) Ty Warren (DL, 1st) Eugene Wilson (S, 2nd) Dan Koppen (C, 5th) Asante Samuel (CB, 4th) Vince Wilfork (DL, 1st) Ben Watson (TE, 1st) Marquise Hill (DL, 2nd) Logan Mankins (OG, 1st) Ellis Hobbs (CB, 3rd) Nick Kaczur (OT, 3rd) Matt Cassel (QB, 7th) James Sanders (S, 4th).

The Patriots have had 51 picks from 2000-2005, 17 in rounds 1-3, 34 in rounds 4-7. Of the 17 picks in rounds 1-3, there are 10 currently on the team. Of the 34 in rounds 4-7, there are 6 currently on the team.

The myth about the Patriots doing well in later round is just that, a myth. Of the 34 players they've drafted in rounds 4-7 in 2000-2005, 3 are starters. Tom Brady, Asante Samuel, and Dan Koppen. Brady was luck, plain and simple. Koppen is a lineman, a position that has the highest rate of success amongs round 4-7 picks. Samuel has only had one good season.

The Redskins have 9 draft picks from 2000-2005 on their team, of those, 7 are listed as starters (counting Rock since he is the KR). The Patriots have 16 draft picks from 2000-2005 on their team, of those, 11 are listed as starters.

The Redskins have a 25% retention rate in this time era, the Patriots have 31.3% retention rate.

In rounds 1-3, the Patriots have held on to 58.9% of their picks. The Redskins have held on to 46.7%.

In rounds 4-7, the Patriots have held on to 17.6% of their picks, the Redskins have held on to 9.5%.

The Redskins have 19.4% of their picks from 2000-2005 as starters. The Patriots have 21.6% as starters.

The Redskins have had 33% (5/15) of their round 1-3 guys stay and are currently starters. (Fred Smoot and Ladell Betts were not counted as starters, otherwise it's 46.7%, or everyone drafted in RDs 1-3 between 2000 and 2005 that is still with us.)

The Patriots have had 46% (8/17) of their round 1-3 guys stay and are currently starters.

However, if you go by # of players who see regular playing time, then both teams are right around 46%. The Redskins lead though, with 7 of 15, the Patriots have 8/17.

***I don't count rounds 4-7 starters because that is more of a crap shoot and generally 4-7 aren't expected to become starters, and in some cases aren't even expected to last in the league that long. If you include undrafted players and late-round picks obtained through another team releasing them, the Skins success rate jumps higher.

[TheLongshot]

You know, even tho the 2nd day of 2005 was overall a failure, I liked the philosophy that they did show. Unlike some of the previous drafts, where most of us were going, "Who?", you could see what they were going for with those players. Certainly, there were some disappointments in what positions they selected, but I thought it had a lot of potential at the time.

Jason

[Jaded-Dragon]

I think that post #12 said all that needed to be said.