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Brandt: How Important is the draft?


Angus

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April 2, 2007) -- Back in the early 1970s, Pittsburgh Steelers owner Art Rooney made a decision. His long-struggling franchise would no longer try to rebuild by trading away draft picks for veteran talent. The Steelers would build a foundation of young players through the NFL draft. And so they did.

Whether it was first-round picks like Terry Bradshaw or fourth-rounders like John Stallworth or fifth-rounders like Mike Webster, the plan worked to perfection, and a dynasty was born.

And that's a perfect example of why we go straight from the Super Bowl these days right into talk of the Senior Bowl and the combine and the Pro Day workouts. The path to the draft is critical, and history tells us that no matter what era you are talking about, teams that draft well will always prosper. Teams that do not draft well will struggle.

Going back to the very first draft in 1936, history proves this to be true. At the time, there were nine teams in the NFL, and each team drafted nine players.

Of the nine players taken by the Philadelphia Eagles, none ever played in a regular-season game for Philadelphia. It's not a coincidence that over the next five years, the Eagles won a total of 10 games, with no winning seasons.

During that same draft, five of the nine players drafted by the Chicago Bears played in the NFL -- including future Hall of Famers Joe Stydahar and Dan Fortmann. The Bears won 40 games in that five-year span after the '36 draft, all winning seasons.

From 1956-1958, the Green Bay Packers won a total of eight games. But during that time they drafted five future Hall of Fame players -- Forrest Gregg, Bart Starr, Paul Hornung, Ray Nitschke and Jim Taylor -- and four more players who earned Pro Bowl honors -- Ron Kramer, Jerry Kramer, Bob Skoronski and Dan Curry. From 1960-63, they were responsible for 43 victories and two NFL championships.

In Super Bowl X, of the 87 active players on the combined rosters of the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, 86 were drafted or signed as undrafted free agents by those teams. The exception was running back Preston Pearson, who was in his first season with Dallas after spending the previous five seasons with Pittsburgh. The Baltimore Colts drafted Pearson in Round 12 in 1967.

This year's Super Bowl was another good example. Both starting quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Rex Grossman, were acquired via the draft, and a combined 50 players on the Colts and Bears -- including key performers such as Marvin Harrison and Brian Urlacher -- were draft picks.

Of the 97 players in this year's Pro Bowl, one was acquired via trade (Champ Bailey) and nine were free-agent signings. So 87 Pro Bowl performers were "homegrown talent" -- playing for the team that originally picked them up.

Twenty-eight of the 37 different men who have won the Super Bowl MVP award had those performances for the teams that originally drafted them.

Does that give you a better idea of why there is so much activity and interest leading up to the draft?

With that in mind, we've taken a look at the picks that have been slotted first through 10th overall in the past 10 years. It's too early to judge the past two top overall picks -- Mario Williams of the Texans and Alex Smith of San Francisco. But it's safe to say the best number ones of the past 10 years have been Peyton Manning, Orlando Pace and Carson Palmer. Likewise, it's safe to say the most disappointing number ones in that time have been Tim Couch and Courtney Brown.

No. 1 overall picks Misses -- Courtney Brown (CLE, 2000); David Carr (HOU, '02); Tim Couch (CLE, '99) Hits -- Peyton Manning (IND, '98); Orlando Pace (STL, '97); Carson Palmer (CIN, '03) Jury still out -- Michael Vick (ATL, '01) No. 2 overall picks Misses -- Ryan Leaf (SD, '98); Charles Rogers (DET, '03) Hits -- Reggie Bush (NO, '06); Donovan McNabb (PHI, '99); Julius Peppers (CAR, '02) Jury still out -- Robert Gallery (OAK, '04) No. 3 overall picks Misses -- Joey Harrington (DET, '02); Akili Smith (CIN, '99); Andre Wadsworth (ARI, '98) Hits -- Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, '04); Andre' Johnson (HOU, '03); Vince Young (TEN, '06) No. 4 overall picks Misses -- Peter Warrick (CIN, '00); Mike Williams (BUF, '02) Hits -- Edgerrin James (IND, '99); Charles Woodson (OAK, '98) No. 5 overall picks Misses -- Curtis Enis (CHI, '98); Ricky Williams (NO, '99) Hits -- A.J. Hawk (GB, '06); Jamal Lewis (BAL, '00); LaDainian Tomlinson (SD, '01) No. 6 overall picks Misses -- Ryan Sims (KC, '02); Johnathan Sullivan (NO, '03) Hits -- Torry Holt (STL, '99); Walter Jones (SEA, '97); Richard Seymour (NE, '01) No. 7 overall picks Misses -- Andre Carter (SF, '01); Troy Williamson (MIN, '05) Hits -- Champ Bailey (WAS, '99) No. 8 overall picks Misses -- David Terrell (CHI, '01) Hits -- DeAngelo Hall (ATL, '04) No. 9 overall picks Misses -- Tom Knight (ARI '97); Koren Robinson (SEA, '01) Hits -- Fred Taylor (JAC, '98); Brian Urlacher (CHI, '00); Kevin Williams (MIN, '03) No. 10 overall picks Misses -- Jamal Reynolds (GB, '01) Hits -- Chris McAlister (BAL, '99); Terrell Suggs (BAL, '03)

As you can see, having top-10 picks doesn't guarantee success. In the past 10 years, Arizona has had eight top-10 selections and Detroit has had seven -- and their combined record last season was 8-24.

New England (one), Pittsburgh (one) and Indianapolis (two) have had a combined four top-10 picks over the past 10 years, and they have won five out of the past six Super Bowls. New England picked Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000.

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=84908

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Standard evaluation of talent. If you have a personnel guy that can evaluate talent your team will almost always win. The Colts are the best example of having people that can continuously find talent in the draft. The Chargers and NE do a good job as well. That extends to free agents. The ability to evaluate free agents is also important. I will add that as a general rule franchise LT's and QB's pretty much have to be drafted in order for a team to obtain one.

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Everybody seems to know this except Vinny, the Dan, and Coach Gibbs. You wonder if they continue to ignore the draft because they like the negative attention it brings, and that all 3 are too stubborn to admit their mistakes. Either way, it hurts the team, in terms of cap room, and more importantly, chemistry.

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Problem with comparing past decades is, when a team drafted a player, he was there for his entire career. Now, after 4 years, a player can go UFA and latch on with another team. Swann, Stallworth, Harris, Bradshaw etc, were steelers for their career unless they were traded/outright released. Harris played 1 year in Seattle. Most of the core players on the Steeler teams played their entire career in Pittsburgh.

That's why I don't think the draft is as important today as then. Detroit, Arizona and Cleveland are always top 10, yet their young players leave when their 4 years are up and sign with other teams. There has to be a balance. Make solid decisions in the draft, then fill holes with FA, until you can draft for that position.

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Everybody seems to know this except Vinny, the Dan, and Coach Gibbs. You wonder if they continue to ignore the draft because they like the negative attention it brings, and that all 3 are too stubborn to admit their mistakes. Either way, it hurts the team, in terms of cap room, and more importantly, chemistry.

Yes, but the draft is still a crap shoot. Please don't tell me NE planned to wait until the 5th round to draft Brady. The skins just want to try and take some of the guesses out of the draft. I don't disagree with that, but you can't do that with every player. I like a balance of the draft and free agency. No team in the NFL has no positions of need and no team can fill all their positions through the draft. The Colts I think come closest.

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That is simply teams holding on to their players. It still is about evaluating talent.

Sure, but it also shows what's available in free agency. If that number indicates how well teams are retaining their own talent, then who are they letting reach the open market? I don't see how those numbers do anything other than spell out the fact that the best players in the NFL are almost exclusively drafted by the team for which they excel.

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Sure, but it also shows what's available in free agency. If that number indicates how well teams are retaining their own talent, then who are they letting reach the open market? I don't see how those numbers do anything other than spell out the fact that the best players in the NFL are almost exclusively drafted by the team for which they excel.

Generally, teams are able to keep their talent. However, players do hit the market that go on to make the pro bowl for their new teams. Free agents also fill holes that otherwise might have to be filled by an untested rookie. Brunell played very well for Jaks after he was traded. Portis is playing very well for the skins. NE has a couple of good free agent pick ups. Balt's new QB still has a year or two left and how about their new RB. Sometimes you get a vet that has one or two good years left. Trent Green is another example.

However, you have to be smart in free agency. Evaluate the talent and determine if the player is worth it and not simply someone else's problem.

I agree that the draft is important. As I said, as a general rule franchise QB's and LT's can only be gotten in the draft. It's getting to the point the franchise DE's are getting into that category as well.

Edit: To add, it is also how good you do in the draft. If your team personnel guys get it wrong more often than right your team is in the bottom more often than not. Detroit and Houston are no better examples.

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Problem with comparing past decades is, when a team drafted a player, he was there for his entire career. Now, after 4 years, a player can go UFA and latch on with another team. Swann, Stallworth, Harris, Bradshaw etc, were steelers for their career unless they were traded/outright released. Harris played 1 year in Seattle. Most of the core players on the Steeler teams played their entire career in Pittsburgh.

That's why I don't think the draft is as important today as then. Detroit, Arizona and Cleveland are always top 10, yet their young players leave when their 4 years are up and sign with other teams. There has to be a balance. Make solid decisions in the draft, then fill holes with FA, until you can draft for that position.

Perfect assessment.

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The post also kind of overlooks one pertinant fact that skins fans should know and that is the Skins of the 70s and 80s were built on trades and they were one of the most sucessful teams of all times . Wilber Marshell, Sonny Jurgensen, John Riggins, Ricky Saunders (was a USFL refugee), Jim Lachey, Gerald Riggs and Gary Clark to name just a few were never drafted by the skins .

The draft has its place but there is more to building a championship winning team than just drafting well.

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The post also kind of overlooks one pertinant fact that skins fans should know and that is the Skins of the 70s and 80s were built on trades and they were one of the most sucessful teams of all times . Wilber Marshell, Sonny Jurgensen, John Riggins, Ricky Saunders (was a USFL refugee), Jim Lachey, Gerald Riggs and Gary Clark to name just a few were never drafted by the skins .

The draft has its place but there is more to building a championship winning team than just drafting well.

Bobby Beathard orchestrated trades such as the Jim Lachey and Earnest Byner acquisitions. They should be called steals! After those moves, GM's would not even talk to him regarding trades.:D

Although these trades were important to the Redskins success, they were set up by drafting well. The Redskins teams of the 80's benefited from prosperous drafts between 79 and 83! Not only did they draft future HOFers in the first three rounds, the brought in productive starters, special teamers and backups throughout their then 12 round picks!

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Adding quality players by ANY means, draft included will give you a much better shot at winning. Thats a no brainer. Its also not to say that if you focus on the draft you will be succesful(this article gives examples of teams that drafted and were horrible), or if you go after a couple FAs you will be unsuccesful(same with draft, if they are quality players, they help you).

It really comes down to talent evaluation, both for the draft, and free agency.

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