BPA vs. Need rant

[Mass_SkinsFan]

If they do none of the above, it will represent a clear shift from what they indicated earlier this offseason.

As far as I can see it will also be a concession that the 2007-08 season has been thrown away before we've even had the first OTA.

[Thirtyfive2seven]

I have to throw my 2 cents in on this one. Sometimes the BPA gets picked and he goes to a really bad team and never lives up to his potential. What if the player doesnt' really fit into the scheme or the team is using the player in a way that doesn't give him the best chance to succeed? What if the coaches change his technique? Hold him back from just making plays on the ball?

I can see the argument from either side, but in this situation (skins having a minimum amount of picks) I think they need to use it to fill a void. I know that goes against what I've said in the past about drafting CJ, but I only say it because I don't think he will be available at our pick

[wildbill1952]

Although not picking Jordan was 100% wrong in retrospect and there were people who had it right from the beginning, we don't have the luxury of hindsight with any pick we make in this years draft.

So, for argument's sake, I'll agree that CJ is the best player available. If he is available at #6 and we take him we have picked the best player available. In this scenario, although it doesn't address the greatest need (DL), we have a player in the draft that today almost everyone agrees is the best player available.

But to see if this is the best way to run our draft, year after year, let's change the scenario slightly and use a little hindisght again. If Reggie Bush had waited until his senior year to go into the draft and was available this year, and was available at #6, should we take him? Everyone agrees he was the best player available (except those who thought Young was). Should we draft him even though we have Portis and Betts?

This is where I feel selecting BPA every year falls apart. If you have proven talent at a position, why would you draft another player at the same position? We can only play so many running backs at one time. And unlike basketball, where you can have three guards playing if you want to, playing three running backs would probably not work out very well. Admittedly, we can play more WR's. And admittedly our WR's would be better if we had CJ. But the question is: which way do you run your draft year after year? BPA or need?

The only time I can see BPA working is when the talent level of the BPA is so great that it outweighs the talent of everyone else in the draft (like a draft composed of one college senior vs sixth graders or Michael Jordan vs everybody else). Then I see how it would be understandable. But I don't see Calvin Johnson's talent eclipsing all others by that much. Is he good? Undoubtedly. Is he guaranteed that good? I don't think so.

And therein lies the difference of running the draft - BPA vs. Need. I think if we were to choose only one method, all other things being equal, drafting need would win out as helping the team most over time. BPA might work out sometimes, but only sometimes.

[jbooma]

CJ will make the defense better? Don't make me laugh. Unless he also plays DB, he isn't going to do much on that front, other than moving the chains.

Hello moving the chains helps out the D!!!!!

Last year one of the main reasons our D was so horrible was the offense was going 3 and out all the time. Later towards the end of the season when the offense was creating some nice drives the D actually played a little better.

CJ would help the D in a postive way, yes he would not be able to tackle anyone but you get the point.

The other thing CJ would do for the O is if we scored more and were leading more in the game then our D can attack and be more agressive. Our D is great when we have the lead and can go after the QB, not when we are losing and the other team can just push as around.

Remember we can still trade Springs and get a DL later in the draft.

As for the question about Peterson, you don't draft him, you trade down if he is there. Unless we don't have Portis you can't take Peterson, plus hasn't he already been injury prone in college?

[jbooma]

As far as I can see it will also be a concession that the 2007-08 season has been thrown away before we've even had the first OTA.

ok please explain how getting the best player in draft is throwing away the season?????

so curious if David Patten caught the game winning TD of the superbowl then technically you could not root for him or the play, thus you would not be able to celebrate the actual winning of the superbowl

[DieselPwr44]

Last year one of the main reasons our D was so horrible was the offense was going 3 and out all the time. Later towards the end of the season when the offense was creating some nice drives the D actually played a little better.

That argument holds no water. In 2004 our offense was putrid yet our D was top 3.

The offense improved slightly in 05 and Portis and the D carried us to the playoffs.

As Jason mentioned earlier, late last season the offense started to roll, yet our D remained putrid.

CJ is only a luxury. One that this team can't afford.

The Redskins motto should be changed to " Dlineman?? We don't need no stinking Dlineman"....

At least that's been their opinion for the first 3 rounds of the draft for the last ten years.

[Seabee1973]

Hello moving the chains helps out the D!!!!!

Last year one of the main reasons our D was so horrible was the offense was going 3 and out all the time. Later towards the end of the season when the offense was creating some nice drives the D actually played a little better.

CJ would help the D in a postive way, yes he would not be able to tackle anyone but you get the point.

The other thing CJ would do for the O is if we scored more and were leading more in the game then our D can attack and be more agressive. Our D is great when we have the lead and can go after the QB, not when we are losing and the other team can just push as around.

Remember we can still trade Springs and get a DL later in the draft.

As for the question about Peterson, you don't draft him, you trade down if he is there. Unless we don't have Portis you can't take Peterson, plus hasn't he already been injury prone in college?

The colts already tried the BPA it didnt help them out in 2000 they were a playoff team the BPA was Wayne the next year the Defense was worse.

We need to draft on the defensive line no one player might not help the team out that much by himself but as a unit might improve itself by leaps and bounds where an offensive player wont help the defense out one single bit

[jbooma]

The colts already tried the BPA it didnt help them out in 2000 they were a playoff team the BPA was Wayne the next year the Defense was worse.

We need to draft on the defensive line no one player might not help the team out that much by himself but as a unit might improve itself by leaps and bounds where an offensive player wont help the defense out one single bit

yes, but with Wayne they won the superbowl this year :laugh: :laugh:

i didn't say we were going to the superbowl next year, but getting CJ would give us the opportunity for many years to come

[jbooma]

That argument holds no water. In 2004 our offense was putrid yet our D was top 3.

The offense improved slightly in 05 and Portis and the D carried us to the playoffs.

As Jason mentioned earlier, late last season the offense started to roll, yet our D remained putrid.

CJ is only a luxury. One that this team can't afford.

The Redskins motto should be changed to " Dlineman?? We don't need no stinking Dlineman"....

At least that's been their opinion for the first 3 rounds of the draft for the last ten years.

our d has been good the last couple of years without any first round dls, hmmm i wonder why that is

the D hurt last year because of our DB's which put to much pressure on the DL, we fix the DB's get some guys that can cover our DL will be better

what good is getting a DL at #6 when he won't see the field??

[Mass_SkinsFan]

ok please explain how getting the best player in draft is throwing away the season?????

The biggest need for this team right now is INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE. Unless your vaunted "best player in the draft" is going to somehow transform into a 340 lb., run stuffing Defensive Tackle he's not worth anything in my mind. If that INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE position isn't shored up significantly before training camp, I don't believe this team can win more than 5 games in 2007-08. Willingly and blatantly ignoring the need at INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE to draft a player at a position not of significant need is throwing the season away so far as I am concerned.

so curious if David Patten caught the game winning TD of the superbowl then technically you could not root for him or the play, thus you would not be able to celebrate the actual winning of the superbowl

That is 100% correct.

[jbooma]

The biggest need for this team right now is INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE. Unless your vaunted "best player in the draft" is going to somehow transform into a 340 lb., run stuffing Defensive Tackle he's not worth anything in my mind. If that INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE position isn't shored up significantly before training camp, I don't believe this team can win more than 5 games in 2007-08. Willingly and blatantly ignoring the need at INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE to draft a player at a position not of significant need is throwing the season away so far as I am concerned.

.

the problem with our D last year was the DB, yes the DL is not great but they are not terrible, we have a LB that can tackle now and we have some help in the DB's so the D should be closer to the previous year, plus we can still get a quality DL in the second round or later

rememeber even if we drafted a DL at #6 which right now none of them seem to be that great, he wouldn't even see the field since GW does not start rookies

we get more value and production instantly from CJ who would be the 2nd best WR on this team instantly, heck could be #1 by the following year

[Mass_SkinsFan]

the problem with our D last year was the DB, yes the DL is not great but they are not terrible, we have a LB that can tackle now and we have some help in the DB's so the D should be closer to the previous year, plus we can still get a quality DL in the second round or later

We had no ability to stop the run or to get to the passer. The DB issues were mostly a matter of the fact that opposing QB's had all day to stand back there and throw the ball because the DLine got NO pressure and we didn't blitz anywhere near enough.

We now have a LB who's almost as old as I am. I have little to no faith in his ability to be anything of value to this team. We brought back a DB who should fit right in with our starting safety on the All-Criminal team and who walked away from DC a couple years ago.

Also remember that I consider any player selected after the end of the first round to be a project player and not even really worth spending time talking about.

rememeber even if we drafted a DL at #6 which right now none of them seem to be that great, he wouldn't even see the field since GW does not start rookies

Well, then we've been bent over and had the proverbial steel rod shoved up an orifice that doesn't see the sun very often; because if the interior defensive line play isn't significantly improved from last year, I don't believe this team can win.

we get more value and production instantly from CJ who would be the 2nd best WR on this team instantly, heck could be #1 by the following year

Are you sure of that? Especially considering you're counting on a Quarterback with a 2-5 record as a starter to get the ball to him, if he could even break into the starting lineup to begin with.

[Seabee1973]

our d has been good the last couple of years without any first round dls, hmmm i wonder why that is

the D hurt last year because of our DB's which put to much pressure on the DL, we fix the DB's get some guys that can cover our DL will be better

what good is getting a DL at #6 when he won't see the field??

The reason we were good was because of all the stunts and blitzes Williams like to employ works for awhile but in the end to be successfull you need to get to QB with pressure from the front line which would make the stunts and blitzes even that much more effective i believe

[TheLongshot]

Hello moving the chains helps out the D!!!!!

Last year one of the main reasons our D was so horrible was the offense was going 3 and out all the time. Later towards the end of the season when the offense was creating some nice drives the D actually played a little better.

Yes, but why were we going 3 and out? Was it because the receivers weren't making the catches, or was it because the QB couldn't get it to the receivers? I think if you look at the tape, you'd find out it was probably more of the latter than the former.

The other thing CJ would do for the O is if we scored more and were leading more in the game then our D can attack and be more agressive. Our D is great when we have the lead and can go after the QB, not when we are losing and the other team can just push as around.

Aggressive or not, if you can't stop the other guy, you can't stop him. There isn't any way around the fact that, one-on-one, the defense got flat out beat most of the time.

Jason

[Tastes Like Chicken]

The reason we were good was because of all the stunts and blitzes Williams like to employ works for awhile but in the end to be successfull you need to get to QB with pressure from the front line which would make the stunts and blitzes even that much more effective i believe

I agree, especially since GW relies more and more on the Cover 2. If I had my way, we'd trade down and pick up a DE AND a DT on day one.

[Seabee1973]

I agree, especially since GW relies more and more on the Cover 2. If I had my way, we'd trade down and pick up a DE AND a DT on day one.

with injuries and the lack of any pass rush we had to go to cover 2 this year. If we can get a good pass rush i see us going back to a more man to man defense especially if springs stay here and stays healthy

[ArmchairRedskin]

Man, if we can keep all three corners heathy this year we would have a superb secondary. Outside of my concerns on the DL, I feel fairly good about our defense as it is now. Daniels may have one more year in him and if big Joe and Griff can stay healthy then I think taking a good DE or DT in the first would be our best bet.

[Tastes Like Chicken]

with injuries and the lack of any pass rush we had to go to cover 2 this year. If we can get a good pass rush i see us going back to a more man to man defense especially if springs stay here and stays healthy

An effective Cover 2 relies upon pass rush from the front four.

With all day to stand in the pocket, teams were able to toast us with play-action and double moves by the WR's into vulnerable areas of the zone.

[Wyvern]

1. CJ has about a 90-95% likelihood of being an elite player in the NFL. Teams know that, so he won't fall to us, nor will we be able to trade up pick him. (Okay, maybe if we were willing to part with multiple top picks in 2007-09)

2. Any BPA pick, even for an elite player, must be measured against the quantity and severity of a team's needs. Skins need help at DT, "Safety", DE, OG, CB, #2WR, TE, and possibly OLB and #2 QB. The defense (DT, "Safety," DE, and CB) needs help urgently. And that's just what's needed for this year!

3. We have very few 2007 picks (rounds 1,5,6, &7). After our first round, we can't afford anymore mistakes on the Simons, McCunes, Wilsons, Molinaros, etc. So giving Cerrato & Co. lot of picks is no guarantee that they'll pick well. So we need to consider at least one shot at a 'high percentage player.'

4. The Skins are aging in several critical areas, and are approaching serious cap difficultes. Looming ahead -- a balloon payment of salaries from all those backloaded contracts and 'dead-money' that are due to start hitting the Skin's books in 2008-2009. The clock is ticking on how this team can remain intact, strictly from cap pressure.

5. There's other kinds of time-pressure on the team (and FO) to win soon. Gibbs & Co. aren't going keep coaching too much longer -- if Snyder wants to hoist a Superbowl trophy with his childhood idol, his window of opportunity is closing. The clock is ticking from an aging sense too!

What this means, is that the Skins can't be thinking too long-term. Consequently wide receivers, QBs, and other longer developing players and projects slide down the Skins list of urgent needs. It becomes all about the team meeting its immediate need. So, we can consider BPA, but only when it meets one of our immediate needs-- DT, 'Safety," and DE.

So, as far as BPA go, as I mentioned in my first paragraph, let's not worry about CJ. Instead we should be considering what we'll do if Peterson, Quinn, or Thomas, drops to us at #6. I suspect most of us would urge working a trade for a pick that allows us to achieve both our draft's immediate goal but also yields another decent pick (or two?) for our other urgent needs.

And what's our immediate goal? ---We need "quick fixes" of new talent we can quickly plug into our areas of critical concern (Back to DT, 'Safety," and DE again.) If we can plug one of these holes with an elite player, so much the better.

[The Point :poke:] The more I hear everyone talking about all the DT and DE busts ...and how reaching for a DT or DE with the #6 is no guarantee of getting quality ...and how we still can get decent DT/DE value deeper into the draft, ...etc.... etc., ......the more I now consider LaRon Landry as our best first target. He'd be a likely candidate for BPA and would meet one of our immediate needs.

Still, bolstering up the safety position won't matter much unless we can also shore up the interior D-line. ....So the Skins must then use whatever leverage they got in trading down (but, only down to where they could still pick Landry) in negotiating a deal for something like a #2, #3 or #4 pick. Then the Skins use that pick for either a decent DT (and maybe DE) to reinforce our defense. If that means having to toss in this years #7 with, say next year's #4 -- so be it. Then we still can use our original #5 for whatever decent DT or DE is still left.

Okay, okay, if somehow CJ fell to us, maybe we should try to keep him -- just because he's that good. (watching Air Coryell and no "D" can be entertaining.) However, if CJ is that good, could the Skins even afford to sign him? That's a question the Skins FO will be having to consider more often in 2008 and 2009. The Skins may not be able to afford too many high round '08/'09 picks, after all those backloaded payments in those restructured expensive contracts start coming due.

So, BPA is good, but must be subordinated to URGENT needs. And things are becoming increasingly urgent for the Skins.

[Lavarleap56]

WOW, i get back from a trip and was surprosed to see this thread blow up like this :laugh:

Look all in all we need both positions but why i sit on the BPA side of this argument is I believe in Team building not Team Fixing. The apperance is that the DL contingant believe if we take Branch or a DE we automaticaly have fixed our line issues and are on our way back to a top 5 defense. In a respectfull way i choose to disagree with that, Why is it with the same line minus Carter in 2004 we were stout against the run and were one of the best defenses in Football??

I may get a little of topic so be warned:

Antonio Pierce in my mind played a important role in that, in 2004 it seemed that Pierce was THE general of that defense. Antonio almost before every defensive snap was moving and shifting players into better positions along the line as well as making adjustments on the fly. Smoot and Springs for a majority of the time were locked into man coverage with Taylor helping in Cover 1 support, these tacktics allowed for this defense to be more aggressive and dictate to offenses. The redskins in 2004 were not a cover 2 style defense.

2005- Antonio to NY, Smoot to Minny, in step Walt Harris and Lemar Marshall. Lemar held his ground for the majority of the year but it was evident he was not the general of the D that Antonio was and Harris was spotty at best at man coverage. Teams were killing us and we stared at a record of 5-5 and we began to adjust and implement majority of cover 2. Springs started battling his groin injury around that time of year as well and began to miss some games. The defense as a whole did well moving to more of a cover 2 scheme until seattle were we were toasted on seam routes and such through a majority of the day.

2006- Teams followed Seattles gameplan pretty much throughout the year it seamed and it payed divadends.

this offseason the Redskins in my belief and some of the players have righted the wrongs so to speak of the past few seasons, London Fletcher is and willl be the general that Antonio was and Smoot is back to be a man to man corner. The Redskins are and have been built to be a man to man team with Sean roaming the field over top and be aggressive in there blitz schemes.

Dl would be a nice addition but i dont feel it is a neccessity with our first pick. Alot of posters made comments on my thoughts regarding the DL prospects in this draft and they may be waranted but it is something i feel strongly about. Jamal Anderson has had one good year at Arkansas he had 3 sacks the previos year and has only been playing DE for what three years? He could be a stud down the road but to me that is a big risk to take. Gaines Adams has potential but to me ideally is best suited to a team that needs a pure rush end or a OLB in a 3-4 scheme, we have our supposed pure rush end in Carter already so adding Adams could be more problematic if teams just decide to pound the ball down our throat all day. Adam Carriker from Nebraska is better against the run than as a pass rusher plain and simple.

Branch to me has bust written all over him, reminds me of Big Daddy Wilkenson with a lazy streak. Okoye could be good if not great.

In the 2007 draft there is alot of depth type DES but no clear franchise DE at this point.

Not to battle for selecting Johson but rather the point that our WRS core isnt set like alot of people think. B.L.has this season to prove he belongs here pretty much and that is all inclusive form attitude to production on the field. QB play is vitale to a WRS success but it is also vice versa WRS need to run the correct routes and be reliable and B.L. was not for much of last season. With all the WR signings last season if you asked me right now at this moment we still dont have a number two wideout. Teams still routinely Double and send help over to Santana at will with no fear of really being burnt on the other side of the field. Antwan is a great gadget guy and kind of came on in that second half of the Giants game and the giants began to even out the coverage and it allowed us oppurtunities.

Johnson might not be there at 6 and wont help us with a pass rush but what he possibly could do is open the field on the offensive side of the ball for our playmakers we currently have. Stats have been posted out the butt on this board about our PPG, 3rd down success rate and blah blah blah point is we need a solid number 2 option in this offfense and Johnson could give us that. I am begining to think im the only person on this board who watched us kick FG after FG in the redzone after we couldnt get in the endzone.

The Redskins need players on offense that when it doesnt go 100% how it is suppose to they still make plays weather they are coverd or badly thrown balls whatever , and the one thing i have routinely seen from CJ is tough grabs and a uncanny ability to make those types of plays. I guess i want Johnson bad because of my Team Building attitude and if i were in to team fixing i would go with A DT.

[Lavarleap56]

We had no ability to stop the run or to get to the passer. The DB issues were mostly a matter of the fact that opposing QB's had all day to stand back there and throw the ball because the DLine got NO pressure and we didn't blitz anywhere near enough.

We now have a LB who's almost as old as I am. I have little to no faith in his ability to be anything of value to this team. We brought back a DB who should fit right in with our starting safety on the All-Criminal team and who walked away from DC a couple years ago.

Also remember that I consider any player selected after the end of the first round to be a project player and not even really worth spending time talking about.

I dont know why but when reading this i got this picture of you being that guy that sits in the bleachers in the movie Major League and berrates everything about the indians. made me laugh a minute.

Well, then we've been bent over and had the proverbial steel rod shoved up an orifice that doesn't see the sun very often; because if the interior defensive line play isn't significantly improved from last year, I don't believe this team can win.

Are you sure of that? Especially considering you're counting on a Quarterback with a 2-5 record as a starter to get the ball to him, if he could even break into the starting lineup to begin with.

were u a extra in the movie Major League? i think i saw you in the stands screaming obsenities and questioning his favorite team until they started winning.

[Peregrine]

BPA versus Need is not quite that simple.

Almost all of the time, its on a case by case basis. I am of the opinion that a team should have a preference toward their need. That means, all things being equal, they should draft a player from their need position. Seems reasonable. However, you dont want to pass on an obvious superstar to get a lesser player at a need position. So if you have Michael Jordon on the board, you draft him. Most teams drafting early are so bad they have many need positions, and thus should just draft the BPA.

But where do you draw the line? Where is the line of talent between the BPA and need? Do you draft the BPA if he is just 5% better than the guy at your need position? 10%? 2%(like you could actually assign numbers to it)? In this case, I think if we really arent enamored with any of the DL prospects at our draft position, and there is a superstar on the board, why draft at a need position when you dont even like the guys at it? That said, if you really like a guy at your need position, and there is a BPA who is a little better at a different position, grab the need position guy.

Frankly, its a very complicated issue. It has to be taken on a case by case basis. At this point, I think you should really really like a guy to draft him at #6. But remember, the BPA is merely an opinion based on 0 NFL downs.

[Mass_SkinsFan]

were u a extra in the movie Major League? i think i saw you in the stands screaming obsenities and questioning his favorite team until they started winning.

No. Not quite. Considering the way this team has been for the last 15 years you couldn't pay me to waste my time attending a game. Though I do tend to scream and swear at the television a lot when they're actually on TV in this part of the country.

The difference between me and the fans in that movie, is that just winning isn't good enough for me. But that's been discussed before.

[Siven]

the problem with our D last year was the DB, yes the DL is not great but they are not terrible, we have a LB that can tackle now and we have some help in the DB's so the D should be closer to the previous year, plus we can still get a quality DL in the second round or later

rememeber even if we drafted a DL at #6 which right now none of them seem to be that great, he wouldn't even see the field since GW does not start rookies

we get more value and production instantly from CJ who would be the 2nd best WR on this team instantly, heck could be #1 by the following year

you are smoking something real good if you think the issue was the DB play. Lets see, the DBs played well when we had a pass rush and bad when we did not. Put two and two together and you get four. A ferocious pass rush could make Ade Jimoh look good in coverage. Rogers dropped interceptions, sure, but no DB is going to be able to blanket a receiver for 10 seconds or more with no pass rush.

[Seabee1973]

you are smoking something real good if you think the issue was the DB play. Lets see, the DBs played well when we had a pass rush and bad when we did not. Put two and two together and you get four. A ferocious pass rush could make Ade Jimoh look good in coverage. Rogers dropped interceptions, sure, but no DB is going to be able to blanket a receiver for 10 seconds or more with no pass rush.

speaking of Ade Jimoh Im one of the few fans hoping he still turns into a super stud. wishfull thinkiong though it would be nice if he c ould eventually turn into a good third or second cb