Tastes Like Chicken Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 I deal with CERTAINTIES in situations like this, not hopes or potentials. If the guy I want is the #32 rated guy in the draft and I have the #1 pick, He's going #1 because I cannot be 100% CERTAIN that he'll be there at #33.Extra picks are simply additionall opportunities to screw things up so far as I am concerned. What if you could trade down and select him at #15, and pick up #47 and #59 and next year's #48 in the process? And what if one of those extra picks turns into Charles Mann, or Mark Schlereth, or Tom Brady? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 For the fearfull individual with no clue what he is doing, yes, extra picks are extra chances to screw things up. Extra picks are also extra chances at getting a bonefide starter or star. It would be downright foolish to not try and get as many extra picks as possible. Its the equivelant of me telling you to pick a number between 1 and 20, and if you get it right, ill give you a million dollars. I then tell you you have 7 chances, and you say "No thanks, I only want 3, it will give me less chances to screw it up". Downright foolishness. The worst thing that could happen is that you fail and youve...lost absolutely nothing. Now if you want to discuss how much 4 late round picks are worth compared to one say 3rd round pick, thats one thing, but to say extra picks are just extra chances to screw things up is a tad foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mass_SkinsFan Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 so you would give a guy a 6 yr 60 million contract when he should recieve a 4 yr 12 million contract? If it meant being absolutely certain I got him compared to taking a chance that he would be there 5-10 picks later, definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mass_SkinsFan Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 What if you could trade down and select him at #15, and pick up #47 and #59 and next year's #48 in the process? And what if one of those extra picks turns into Charles Mann, or Mark Schlereth, or Tom Brady? NOT INTERESTED. Let's even say you could somehow GUARANTEE that he'd be there at #15 (which I don't believe is possible); I then end up with three additional second round picks that I have to do something with. Unless I had a plan in place to take those three picks and trade back up into the FIRST ROUND this year, they're pretty much worthless so far as I am concerned. Especially since those picks (assuming I used them) are much more likely to be Patricia Ramsey, than Charles Mann. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mass_SkinsFan Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 For the fearfull individual with no clue what he is doing, yes, extra picks are extra chances to screw things up. Extra picks are also extra chances at getting a bonefide starter or star. It would be downright foolish to not try and get as many extra picks as possible. Only if you're somehow able to trade down and acquire additional FIRST ROUND picks. Anything after that is a total crap-shoot, even more than the First rounders, in my mind. Its the equivelant of me telling you to pick a number between 1 and 20, and if you get it right, ill give you a million dollars. I then tell you you have 7 chances, and you say "No thanks, I only want 3, it will give me less chances to screw it up". Downright foolishness. The worst thing that could happen is that you fail and youve...lost absolutely nothing. Now if you want to discuss how much 4 late round picks are worth compared to one say 3rd round pick, thats one thing, but to say extra picks are just extra chances to screw things up is a tad foolish. You missed a part of the equation.... Which is that for every one of those choices I'm WRONG on, I have to give you $100K. Those picks that don't work out still count against the salary cap and roster space. Keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabee1973 Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 If it meant being absolutely certain I got him compared to taking a chance that he would be there 5-10 picks later, definitely. SO the next year the guy you want is the 45th rated player and you have the number 1 pick again yopu woul dgive this guy now a year later another big 6 year 80 million dollar contract with 30 million guareenteed? Let me guess you passed up shoring up a position in free agency because the guy led the league in sacks for 4 straight years and led the league in tackles for losses but because the guy was a 6th rounder you wouldnt be interested in him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabee1973 Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 Only if you're somehow able to trade down and acquire additional FIRST ROUND picks. Anything after that is a total crap-shoot, even more than the First rounders, in my mind.You missed a part of the equation.... Which is that for every one of those choices I'm WRONG on, I have to give you $100K. Those picks that don't work out still count against the salary cap and roster space. Keep that in mind. yes but being wrong in the later rounds is lot more sheaper than being wrong in the first or second round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veretax Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 Veretax, your point about we can start 5 WR at one time as opposed to 2 DT is interesting, but one might argue that because there's less DT, there are of more value. 1 WR gets hurt, you lost 20% of the starters, but if 1 DT gets hurt, that's half! Plus, I think the one big hole in the WR argument (CJ aside) is that we have a stud WR already. We need a stud DL, whether its DE or DT. And we need that NOW. Tom Brady got to the AFC championship game last year with crappy receivers, and Jason Campbell, while not Brady (yet) can compensate for lack of receiver depth. On the defensive line, only King Kong could have made up for how poorly that group did. The point I am making is the Rocky situation. We traded up to draft him and he didn't start not once. At WR you can afford to take more of a chance starting a rookie earlier in the season because if he messes up there are at least 3 other guys out there that can catch the ball. I was no way suggesting we start 5 WRs we are not New England, and I agree DTs are valuable, making finding a stud that much more a great thing, but I'm worried that we will have another rookie sitting for 5-8 games and not getting to start. What a waste of money to draft someone who is supposed to be our new stud and not give him action early on. Drafting CJ is a near certainty that he can compete and start early in the season. Guarranteed. And after Lloyd rides the pine for a year, he'll want out of washington, and we say, see this here things a contract, you want out your going to have to buy it out. Also JC while being a great QB isn't Tom Brady, the comparison even when you take out experience is flawed. I think our odds of landing CJ are low, I admit taht, but if hes there at 6 man I'd pull that trigger unless someone gives us their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and maybe a player that helps out at a key position for us (DLine, Guard, TE, Dback, etc, or maybe even kicker) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mass_SkinsFan Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 SO the next year the guy you want is the 45th rated player and you have the number 1 pick again yopu woul dgive this guy now a year later another big 6 year 80 million dollar contract with 30 million guareenteed? Not sure I've ever seen a team that didn't have a need position they couldn't fill in the top 32 selections. It may not be the absolute highest need on the team, but a need none-the-less. For example... We need more than one young, impact D-Lineman right now. Let's assume we take one in the first round this year, at #6. Let's even assume that next year we're drafting in the Top 10 again. However, next year there's no D-Lineman in the top 32 players in the draft, and since we actually have our second round selection (which couldn't be lower than 42), we should use that first round pick on our second highest need position, say, Center or Guard or Linebacker; where there is a Top 32 player available. Does that make it a little clearer for you? Let me guess you passed up shoring up a position in free agency because the guy led the league in sacks for 4 straight years and led the league in tackles for losses but because the guy was a 6th rounder you wouldnt be interested in him. You'd actually be wrong. Once they've been in the league for three to four years and they've proven they can actually PLAY at the NFL Level, draft position becomes a lot less relevant. Certain things like what team they've played for, their criminal record, and other things ARE important, but draft position decreases in importance once they've proven they can be solid, impact players at the NFL Level. yes but being wrong in the later rounds is lot more cheaper than being wrong in the first or second round That's because once you get past the first dozen or so players in the Second Round there's really not much that's going to be a significant talent anyway, so even if they DON'T bust, you aren't exactly getting prime grade talent anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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