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Possible (mathematically) for NFC South winner to be 5-11

DCSaints_fan

By DCSaints_fan
in Around the NFL

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DCSaints_fan

DCSaints_fan

Posted
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Standings (overall, divisio) and remaining games for NFC South teams:

 

Atlanta (4-7, 4-0):   Ar, @GB, Pitt, @NO, Car

New Orleans (4-7, 2-1):   @Pitt, Car, @Chi, Atl, @TB

Carolina(3-7-1, 1-2):  Min, @NO, TB, Cle, @Atl

TB(2-9,  0-4); Cin, @Det, @Car ,GB, NO

 

Here's how it could happen (for the Saints, at least :) ):

 

NO: Lose out except Atl  Final record 5-11, Division record 3-3

TB:  Lose out except Car, NO,  Final record 5-11 Division 2-4
Car:  Lose out except Atl: Final record 4-11-1 
Atl:  Lose out  Final record 4-12

 

Saints win tie breaker with  TB by division record

 

Another scenario:

 

Atl:  Lose out except Car  Final record 5-11 Division record 4-2

NO: Lose out except Atl: Final record 5-11, Division record 3-3

Car:  Lose out except NO: Final record 4-11-1  Divison 2-4

TB:  Lose out except Car, Atl,   Final record 4-12, Divison 2-4

 

Atlanta wins division by 4-2 division record.  Blank retains Mike Smith ?

 

 

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PokerPacker

PokerPacker

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If you're taling about Carolina, I don't think so since they have to play New Orleans and Atlanta.  Beating one of those teams puts them at 4 wins, but then they would have to lose the other team which would put them at 5 wins.

Not necessarily Carolina, but maybe if two of the divisional teams tie each other somewhere in there.
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hail2skins

hail2skins

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Difficult to see a situation presently where the NFC South winner finishes with more than 7 wins, although the Saints probably have the best chance, depending on whether they can beat the Jekyll and Hyde Bears on the road.  Second time this has happened in five years (2010 Seahawks), and several other times we've had 8-8 division winners.

 

I know the purists would say "hey, you should get rewarded for winning your division" but no way should the NFC South winner host their playoff game, even though you can't change the rules at this point.

 

You know we're about to go to seven teams per conference making the playoffs, and it'd be nice to see them make this change, like seeding by records, either within the conference, and at some point I wouldn't mind going totally radical and throw out the conferences come playoff time, and have the situation where you can have two AFC or two NFC teams play in the Super Bowl.

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hail2skins

hail2skins

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If they take away the automatic home game for div winners, they'll do it across the board and not just for teams that win their division with sub .500 records. In other words, a 10-6 div winner would have to travel to an 11-5 wild card team. I have no problem with that.  I'm hoping for a "race to the bottom" in the NFCS, because if a 6-10 Saints/Falcons/Panthers team hosting a playoff game won't look absolutely ridiculous, I don't know what will.

 

There are 16 teams with at least 7 wins, the highest number ever after 11 games.  I think this is really going to seal the deal for adding the additional team per conference to the playoffs in 2015.  It will decrease (if not eliminate) the amount of times a double-digit win team gets hosed out of the playoffs, but will also increase the number of times an 8-8 team gets in.  You really can't go beyond 14 teams without having 7-9 teams in as a fairly regular occurrence, which would be a travesty.

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DCSaints_fan

DCSaints_fan

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I don't think the NFL should or will completely eliminate homefield for division winners.   I would like to see a "3-game" rule though, where if the wildcard team's record is 3 games or better than the division winner, then the WC team should get to host.   That would at least get rid of the extreme cases like the 7-9 Seahawks hosting the 11-5 Saints in 2010, and the probably 7-win or worse NFC South team hosting most likely a 10+ win team this year.

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hail2skins

hail2skins

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DC_Saints, I've thought about that too but I can't see the league going to that level of granularity.  Either they are going to keep it as is (likely) where the division winner hosts no matter what, or the team with the better record hosts, at least in the wildcard round.

 

Once they decide to go to 7 teams per conference make the playoffs, the next decision will be what the first round scheduling will look like.  The most logical to me will be tripleheaders both Saturday and Sunday, but watch the league doing something like one game Friday night, two games each Sat and Sun, and one game on Monday night.

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balki1867

balki1867

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It's funny because they keep pointing out the Pats team that won 11 games (while the 8-8 Chargers won their division) as a reason to expand that playoffs. The real problem is that the divisions are too small.  It's not that unlikely that you'd have 4 subpar teams in the same division, and that not only allows an undeserving team into the playoffs, but keeps a deserving team out.

 

The solution is not to expand, but to go to 4 8-team divisions and go to a format closer to college-- you alternate playing at home and away every year with one divisional rival being a home-and-home to make an 8-game division schedule.  Then you work out a way to schedule the other 8 games as well. 

 

Honestly, winning a 4-team division is not a huge deal and it shouldn't guarantee a home playoff game. (Think about it-- 25% of the NFL gets to claim to be a 'champion' of something every year).

 

Ideally, I'd want a system where:

1) You have 4 8-team divisions with each division champ getting a bye

2) The 2nd and 3rd teams have a playoff game during what used to be wildcard weekend

3) The winners play the the division champ at their stadium in the 2nd weekend.

4) The winners of (3) play in the CCG

5) The Super Bowl is the winners of (4)

 

First, winning your division becomes meaningful again because you're the best of 8 teams, and it earns you a bye.

Second, its really hard for a group of 8 teams to be collectively below average, so you are unlikely to have ~.500 teams hosting playoff games

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balki1867

balki1867

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I don't know man. If they go to 8 team divisions we'd literally never win one. We been at best 10-6 in over 20 years, never better than that lol.

 

Yeah it'd be like college where certain franchises would go decades between division championships (Indiana and Minnesota tied for the Big Ten Football Championship in 1967, and that's the last time either school won the conference).  That said, it also makes winning the division a bigger deal. 

 

Personally I would like it but it would water down a lot of great rivalries. Plus whichever divisions got paired with the respective Western divisions from their conferences (to form 8-team divisions) would not be very happy.

 

BTW I just looked at the remaining AFC North schedules and its mathematically possible that the last-place team is 11-5 at the end of the season.

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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I have 2 conflicting thoughts, and I'm completely undecided on whether I like reseeding or mit:

Case for: let all the teams qualify as they do now, but seed 1-6 based on record. That could mean a WC team is the second or third seed, but if you're a 11 win team, you should benefit for that over a crappy division winner.

Case against: if you're an 11 win team, and stuck playing on the road, eh, whatever. You should be able to beat a 7 win team on the road anyway.

I honestly don't know which I prefer. The first seems more "fair

But life's not fair. And you should get the benefit of winning your division, even if it's crap.

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SkinsFTW

SkinsFTW

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This year the Saints probably win that division with a 6-10 record. I think they should have to play on the road considering the team they will face is currently 8-4 or better. Also one of those 8-4 teams will be out of the playoffs likely finishing at 10-6 or better. The 49ers are 7-5 and they'd be out as the 8th team since Atlanta or NO right now would be the 4th seed.

 

This year teams are either good at 7-5 or better or sorry at 4-8 or worse, there are no .500 teams.

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visionary

visionary

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LOL, not so fast.  I don't see Atlanta beating the Packers tomorrow night, so we'll likely be in a scenario where there are two teams tied for the division lead at 5-8 come Tuesday morning.

The New Orleans VS Atlanta game in the second to last week could be crucial.

Of course at this point, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Panthers sneak up on the other two and snatch it from them.

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