Reason To Be Optimistic About Ramsey

I'm optimistic in my realism...

Patrick Ramsey: It's too easy (and too simplistic) to say "Ramsey hasn't proven himself yet"...he's only been in the NFL for three seasons, and his first two seasons were marred by Spurrier's scheme and indecision/impatience. Ramsey got put in and pulled out, and put back in again and taken back out again during his rookie season...this is important.

So I did a comparison between Ramsey (who's been called "mediocre"), Drew Brees (who's called a "pro bowler" and has the franchise tag on him), and Chad Pennington (who, rightfully, has been called "one of the best young QBs in the league"). Ramsey has only played in 25 games where he either started or had more than 20 pass attempts, so I checked on the stats of the first 25 games of Brees and Pennington as well.

Number of games with a QB rating of 82 or better

Ramsey-

2002:

Total of 7 games of 20+ pass attempts and/or starts:

Four games of a QB rating of 82.0 or better

20/34 58.8% 268yds 2TDs 0Ints 103.6 rating

12/27 44.4% 204yds 1TDs 0Ints *82.9 rating

23/35 65.7% 213yds 3TDs 0Ints *110.8 rating

14/31 45.2% 190yds 2TDs 0Ints *86.8 rating

*Consecutive games (three of the last four games of the season)

2003:

10 games of 20+ pass attempts and/or starts:

Four games of a QB rating of 82.0 or better

17/23 73.9% 185yds 1TDs 1Ints *93.6 rating

25/39 64.1% 356yds 2TDs 0Ints *110.6 rating

23/45 51.1% 348yds 2TDs 1Ints *82.5 rating

*Consecutive games (first three games of the season)

At this point in Ramsey's career, in six of his last seven games Ramsey had a QB rating of 82.5 or higher. In those six games, he was:

114/200

57%

1,496 yds

7.48 ypa

11 TDs

2 Ints

Pretty damn good, if you ask me...and a reason so many fans and NFL personnel were being sold on him as a legitimate quality QB in the making.

However, after this he went thru a stretch where his play (at least as far as stats go) dropped noticeably. It may have been around this time that he injured his foot (as well as teams figured out Spurrier's offensive scheme and just blitzed the hell out of the Skins). After that strong stretch, Ramsey only had one game with a QB rating of 82.0 or higher:

16/30 53.3% 147yds 2TDs 0Ints 89.2 rating

2004:

8 games of 20+ pass attempts and/or starts:

Three games of a QB rating of 82.0 or better

19/22 86.4% 174yds 3TDs 0Ints *139.2 rating

18/27 66.7% 214yds 1TDs 0Ints *103.0 rating

17/26 65.4% 216yds 2TDs 1Ints *100.8 rating

*All occurred during the last five games of the season

What's noticeable is that Patrick Ramsey had as many 100+ QB rating games in the last five games of 2004 under Gibbs, as he did in the first 17 games in 2002 and 2003 under Spurrier.

So, to summarize:

Ramsey:

First 25 games--

11 games of 82+ QB rating in his first 25 games

6 games of 100+ QB rating in his first 25 games

How does it compare, though, to both Drew Brees and Chad Pennington in their first 25 games?

Drew Brees:

First 25 games--

10 games of 82+ QB rating in his first 25 games

3 games of 100+ QB rating in his first 25 games

Chad Pennington:

First 25 games--

18 games of 82+ QB rating in his first 25 games

13 games of 100+ QB rating ini his first 25 games

And, to make sure to compare not just these QBs at their best, here's a comparison at their worst:

Ramsey:

13 games of under a 70 QB rating in his first 25 games

Worst stretch: 4 game stretch where he threw for 3 TDs and 4 Ints.

Brees:

13 games under a 70 QB rating in his first 25 games

Worst stretch: 7 game stretch where he threw 3 TDs and 9 Ints.

Pennington:

3 games under a 70 QB rating in his first 25 games

Worst stretch: 5 game stretch where he threw 3 TDs and 9 Ints.

There's not a significant difference between Ramsey and Brees...with Ramsey even performing slightly better. But Pennington seems lightyears ahead of both QBs. So is Pennington simply that much better a QB than either Brees or Ramsey?? Or is there some other intangible that plays a part in their performances in their first 25 games?That's where this one last "stat" comes in...

Pennington:

Has played under the same scheme and coaches the last four years of his 5 year career...and only played in three games in his first 2 seasons.

Brees:

Has played under the same scheme and coaches in the last three years of his 4 year career...and only played in one game his rookie season.

Ramsey:

Has played under two different schemes and coaches in his 3 year career...and only sat on the bench three games before being put on the field.

Pennington was the beneficiary of coaching and scheme continuity, as well as two years of learning before being asked to contribute. Brees was the beneficiary of coaching and scheme continuity, as well as one year of learning before being asked to contribute. Ramsey, on the otherhand, has had next to no continuity by comparison...and only had three weeks of learning before being asked to contribute.

And that's why I'm optimistic in my realism...how well would Ramsey be playing right now, if he had the benefit of two years of studying and learning on the sidelines and four years with Gibbs and his system? How well would Ramsey be playing right now, if he had the benefit of one year of studying and learning on the sidelines and three years with Gibbs and his system?

Instead, he had three weeks of studying and learning on the sidelines, and two years of Spurrier and his system...then 8 weeks of studying and learning on the sidelines, and one year under Gibbs and his system.

Yes, we can criticize that Ramsey holds the ball a second too long, or that he needs to work on "seeing the field" better...or just continue tossing out the "He hasn't proven himself yet" mantra. Or we could refuse to diminish the profound importance that continuity and a year or two of holding a clipboard really does play in a QBs development, and acknowledge that Patrick Ramsey has had neither. He'll never get that "two years of holding a clipboard at the beginning of his career" opportunity back...but his time sitting on the bench even though Brunell was stinkin' up the field may have indeed helped his development (again, three of his last five games last season had QB ratings over 100). The continuity can still be achieved...as long as Gibbs stays on board (he will). By the time Ramsey's a free agent, he would have spent three years under Gibbs and his system...it was Brees' third year in Marty's system when he broke out..and Pennington's second year in Edwards' system when he did. The difference is that Pennington had two years of learning the QB position when he started compared to Ramsey's three weeks.

Year Two in Gibbs' system...I'm optimistic and realistic about Ramsey.

Very encouraging. Thanks for the stats, it looks like he is right up there with the big doggs.

Nice work with the stats. I agree totally that Ramsey has not had time to develop. This year is going to be very interesting.

Other reasons that Pennington was/is so successful:

1) Curtis Martin

2) Great, consistent play from o-line

3) Dink and dunk west coast offense - high %age offensive scheme

Encouraging to see Ramsey put up decent numbers despite having the cards stacked against him although statistics do lie sometimes, and just as we tend to blow off stats that cast the team in an unflattering light, we should also use the same discretion in considering stats that claim to give us more optimism than we might otherwise have.

I still have faith in Ramsey. Im not sure who to be a fan of with Campbell now, but I still hope Ramsey will lead us these next 2 seasons, and we are somehow able to keep both QB's happy.

To say he hasn't proven himself yet is very accurate. Having said that, I have no doubt that he is about to prove himself. Very good work. I love the stats.

Nice Post!

The continuity probably is the biggest factor.

Also with Rod Gardner gone, and Coles for stretches kept dropping the ball, I think Patton, Taylor, and Thrash all have pretty good hands. I'm not sure if Moss has good hands or not, but catching balls consistently does wonders for QB's timing and rhythm (and ultimately their numbers).

Originally posted by bird_1972

Encouraging to see Ramsey put up decent numbers despite having the cards stacked against him although statistics do lie sometimes, and just as we tend to blow off stats that cast the team in an unflattering light, we should also use the same discretion in considering stats that claim to give us more optimism than we might otherwise have.

Meaning what, that we should just blow off this entire thread?

Originally posted by flexxskins

Meaning what, that we should just blow off this entire thread?

Relax ... relax...

Just something to keep in mind, that's all.

Originally posted by bird_1972

Relax ... relax...

Just something to keep in mind, that's all.

I'm relaxed man. I just think that the stats show that whenever Ramsey was given a chance, he produced just as well and consistantly as Pennington and Breeze...(however you spell his name;) ).

The two most common complaints of "holding on to the ball too long" and "not seeing the field" are often results of unfamiliarity with the sytem and surrounding players.

Once a QB develops a confidence in the system and knows the tendencies of his supporting cast, all of the sudden he is able to get rid of the ball quicker, with more confidence and is able to "see" the field.

Originally posted by HailVictory

The two most common complaints of "holding on to the ball too long" and "not seeing the field" are often results of unfamiliarity with the sytem and surrounding players.

Once a QB develops a confidence in the system and knows the tendencies of his supporting cast, all of the sudden he is able to get rid of the ball quicker, with more confidence and is able to "see" the field.

I agree...and the shotgun formation should help him feel more comfortable also. It might bring back those glory days, when he used it at Tulane.

good job on the stats man, that shows and says a lot about ramsey

wow, absolutely excellent post califan

NICE homework, Califan. I'll take that info into week one for sure.

Didn't PR have an injury to recover from at the end of his last year with Spurrier?

That injury also kept PR off of the field which inhibited his development somewhat.

This is a great thread and a fantastic job analyizing the statistics.

To simply say "Ramsey has yet to prove himself." is accurate but misleading. It's generic enough to mean anything.

What does Ramsey have to prove? To me, nothing. To his critics? He needs to prove how their words taste with ketchup. Salty, I'd wager.

Another thing you always hear people saying, that aquiring Campbell is a vote of "No Confidence" by Gibbs towards Ramsey. I believe it is a vote of "No Confidence" but towards Brunell rather than Ramsey. Gibbs, while admittedly is slow to give up on someone, is not blind or stupid. He saw how Brunell played last year, consistantly getting worse week by long weeeek.

Excellent stuff- Thanks Califan

Im not a stat guy, but appreciate the work that has to go into it.

I just figure if Ramsey has had this much time in one system under all the good coaching he is getting he had better have a handle on it.

The Campbell pick is for the future.

Great job with the stats. It's nice to have something to compare his progress to.

If Ramsey can learn to see the field and feel the rush, I think we got ourselves a qb.

If he can't, well Jason Campbell come on down!

Originally posted by HailVictory

The two most common complaints of "holding on to the ball too long" and "not seeing the field" are often results of unfamiliarity with the sytem and surrounding players.

Once a QB develops a confidence in the system and knows the tendencies of his supporting cast, all of the sudden he is able to get rid of the ball quicker, with more confidence and is able to "see" the field.

Well, the players are, once again, new. The system will be changed a bit as well - so we may also consider that new. The coaching staff will remain constant, so that should help.

I'd just be wary to get too excited just yet.

:2cents:

Great Piece, Califan.

I really hope Ramsey has a great season, the sky's the limit for him.

Franchise QB right here!!! :helmet:

Good post, but it is very iffy to create your own hypothesis (coaching continuity is what makes pennington better) and treat it like a fact.

Good research