Did you know Gibbs never walked on water?

[Neophyte]

Originally posted by JoeSkins

Weren't you the guy that, earlier in the preseason, didn't see any possible way that this team didn't start out 3-0? Wasn't that the argument you made for why we'd be more than 9-7?

And if you go back and look at Art's post where he said that, he also said he could very easily be caught up in the emotion of the moment and not seeing every thing clearly. He did admit to perhaps being overly excited about this whole thing.

And hey, we are still one dropped TD pass and a bad PI call from 3-0. No shame there considered where we have been.

[Art]

Originally posted by JoeSkins

Weren't you the guy that, earlier in the preseason, didn't see any possible way that this team didn't start out 3-0? Wasn't that the argument you made for why we'd be more than 9-7?

No, that wasn't me.

Before the season I did write that while I expected sluggishness of the sort we've seen early in the year, I wasn't sure whether that would translate to losses of the degree I initially expected. Most of the offseason I had expected a 2-4 start or so because of that sluggishness and that may still happen.

As the season approached, looking at the teams we were playing and siding with the passion on our side for the early games, I wondered if that was more pessimistic than was appropriate. After three games it is clear we've surpassed my view as to where we'd be as a team already. I'm a bit concerned about early passion and emotion dying down and sluggishness really hurting us here in this stretch, but, we'll see how that goes.

I thought, for the most part, that if we were able to start better than we should reasonably expect a new team like this to start, that we would finish better than 9-7. Right now, I think that's more likely than ever. But, get back to me if we drop this game .

[denverdan]

Originally posted by Chachie

Art-

I don't care what happens until Dec. 26th. Then I expect my holidays to be ruined.

We go NOWHERE until we get over the Cowboy hump.

Come on Chachie, every single loss hurts, and no loss hurts more than to the cowboys, but take this game in proper perspective, no season is based on the record vs one team. Dec is a long time away and yes there is a Santa Clause. You'll feel better next week, I promise.

[bird_1972]

I have a strong fear that the weighty expectations coming into the season will take thier toll on an older Gibbs. He doesn't look as spry as before.

I don't remember the first go-around Gibbs having that look about him. Heck, I don't remember the fans putting him on such a high pedestal either for that matter. We knew we had an amazing coach then, but now he has reached "diety" status and I think that could be detrimental to him and the team.

We need to lay off, understand that even though Gibbs ruled as a HC he'll have a steep learning curve after 12 years out of the league and it may be a season before we start to see results. Remember he's a coach, not a magician.

Years of dissapointment have made us desperate for a winner - lets not ruin it by unduly putting too much pressure on Gibbs and his staff now that things are starting off a little rough.

[Lyteinc]

Originally posted by China

I would also refer you to this thread where it states previous instances where Gibbs' Redskins started 1-2:

1984 Started 1-2 Finished 11-5

1985 Started 1-2 Finished 10-6

1989 Started 1-2 Finished 10-6

Relax fellas!!!

Gibbs' teams are notorious slow starters and strong finishers. Being his first year, give it some time.

Excellent post.

Most great coaches aren't proven by great starts. After all, it's not how you start the race, but how you finish it. Great starts usually are because of talent and the synergistic play of the team. Philly is 3-0 because most of the team has been around for a while, and the starter additions are very talented and fit in well to the system. Reid's job now is to ensure that keeps going forward. Gibb's job is to take a few close losses and get the team to play synergistically to get the 3-4 extra points to win the game, regardless of bad calls.

You become a great team when calls go against you, and you're still winning the game. Gibbs has been there before, and he'll be back. But you can't build an army in a day, and you can't have a veteran army without going to war. By the end of the season, this will be a team that is better than Dallas, having younger, better WR's, better younger talent at QB, and by far more talent at RB. The defenses will about even, as to be expected in Parcells'/Gibbs' teams.

[JoeSkins]

Originally posted by Art

No, that wasn't me.

Before the season I did write that while I expected sluggishness of the sort we've seen early in the year, I wasn't sure whether that would translate to losses of the degree I initially expected. Most of the offseason I had expected a 2-4 start or so because of that sluggishness and that may still happen.

As the season approached, looking at the teams we were playing and siding with the passion on our side for the early games, I wondered if that was more pessimistic than was appropriate. After three games it is clear we've surpassed my view as to where we'd be as a team already. I'm a bit concerned about early passion and emotion dying down and sluggishness really hurting us here in this stretch, but, we'll see how that goes.

I thought, for the most part, that if we were able to start better than we should reasonably expect a new team like this to start, that we would finish better than 9-7. Right now, I think that's more likely than ever. But, get back to me if we drop this game .

Then it was someone with the same avatar.

[monkey66]

The better question is why does a thread like this need to be written in the first place?

We are three games into the season...

The man responsible for most of the franchises greatest moments is the head coach again. The second guessing, b!tching and moaning is offensive, and neither the players nor the coach deserve it (at least not yet :laugh: )

Need I remind anyone the score of the Dallas game last year?

[Art]

Originally posted by bird_1972

I have a strong fear that the weighty expectations coming into the season will take thier toll on an older Gibbs. He doesn't look as spry as before.

I don't remember the first go-around Gibbs having that look about him. Heck, I don't remember the fans putting him on such a high pedestal either for that matter. We knew we had an amazing coach then, but now he has reached "diety" status and I think that could be detrimental to him and the team.

We need to lay off, understand that even though Gibbs ruled as a HC he'll have a steep learning curve after 12 years out of the league and it may be a season before we start to see results. Remember he's a coach, not a magician.

Years of dissapointment have made us desperate for a winner - lets not ruin it by unduly putting too much pressure on Gibbs and his staff now that things are starting off a little rough.

One thing I don't really get is people obsessed with how Gibbs looks as if this is a surprise. Do people recall that when he had his initial press conference everyone said he looked so much better and younger than he did the day he retired?

Gibbs looked 70 years old when he left. He was run down and worn out and he was overweight, out of shape and emotionally spent having missed his children growing up. Not only did Gibbs show the wear of being a football coach the last time he was here, but, it was FAR MORE obvious.

So obvious everyone in the world mentioned he looked so good when he returned because he looked so whipped when he left. Obviously football coaching is a tough job and takes a toll on a guy. Gibbs is tired. He was before. The difference is that now he doesn't have the same emotional weight on him of missing his kids grow up because they are grown up.

I don't see this as an issue as many of you do. This is part and parcel of how Gibbs coaches. A year after he retires again, he'll look great again .

[Om]

Originally posted by monkey66

The better question is why does a thread like this need to be written in the first place?

Because now I don't have to feel bad about not having time to write my piece this week. The style mighta been a bit different, but the message was going to be largely the same.

[Art]

Originally posted by JoeSkins

Then it was someone with the same avatar.

For some reason I suspect you simply don't recall things as clearly as you ought to because the people with the same avatar also never said we'd go 3-0. My memory might surpass yours as I am forced to read every post here and you may not be.

My guess is you simply didn't understand what you read and are confused. You might clear it up by looking back through history and addressing the specifics of your concern.

[bird_1972]

Originally posted by Art

One thing I don't really get is people obsessed with how Gibbs looks as if this is a surprise. Do people recall that when he had his initial press conference everyone said he looked so much better and younger than he did the day he retired?

Gibbs looked 70 years old when he left. He was run down and worn out and he was overweight, out of shape and emotionally spent having missed his children growing up. Not only did Gibbs show the wear of being a football coach the last time he was here, but, it was FAR MORE obvious.

So obvious everyone in the world mentioned he looked so good when he returned because he looked so whipped when he left. Obviously football coaching is a tough job and takes a toll on a guy. Gibbs is tired. He was before. The difference is that now he doesn't have the same emotional weight on him of missing his kids grow up because they are grown up.

I don't see this as an issue as many of you do. This is part and parcel of how Gibbs coaches. A year after he retires again, he'll look great again .

Well ... appearances aside, I just think that we as fans should step back, let the man coach, go through his readjustment pains, and be more realistic. It's tough when you've gone so long without a winner as we have, but I think it will serve coach/team better in the long run if we do. That is all.

[TerpsEagles]

Originally posted by Art

No, that wasn't me.

Before the season I did write that while I expected sluggishness of the sort we've seen early in the year, I wasn't sure whether that would translate to losses of the degree I initially expected. Most of the offseason I had expected a 2-4 start or so because of that sluggishness and that may still happen.

As the season approached, looking at the teams we were playing and siding with the passion on our side for the early games, I wondered if that was more pessimistic than was appropriate. After three games it is clear we've surpassed my view as to where we'd be as a team already. I'm a bit concerned about early passion and emotion dying down and sluggishness really hurting us here in this stretch, but, we'll see how that goes.

I thought, for the most part, that if we were able to start better than we should reasonably expect a new team like this to start, that we would finish better than 9-7. Right now, I think that's more likely than ever. But, get back to me if we drop this game .

A 2-1 or 3-0 Redskins team won't finish just 9-7. And, right now, I can't see the Redskins NOT starting off in this way.

Art's prediction thread

...while you did in fact say 3-0, as I just quoted above, you also said in that same very post 2-1, and covered briefly the possible 1-3 start ..... yup, as i've read a lot from you in my short time here... you tend to cover just about any possible scenario so the possibility of you being wrong is about zero... you can always go back and find a quote to fit whatever the reality is..... am i right ?

[China]

Originally posted by Art

No, that wasn't me.

Before the season I did write that while I expected sluggishness of the sort we've seen early in the year, I wasn't sure whether that would translate to losses of the degree I initially expected. Most of the offseason I had expected a 2-4 start or so because of that sluggishness and that may still happen.

As the season approached, looking at the teams we were playing and siding with the passion on our side for the early games, I wondered if that was more pessimistic than was appropriate. After three games it is clear we've surpassed my view as to where we'd be as a team already. I'm a bit concerned about early passion and emotion dying down and sluggishness really hurting us here in this stretch, but, we'll see how that goes.

I thought, for the most part, that if we were able to start better than we should reasonably expect a new team like this to start, that we would finish better than 9-7. Right now, I think that's more likely than ever. But, get back to me if we drop this game .

Art,

If I'm not mistaken, this is the post he was referring to in this thread :

Originally posted by Art

Every year I spend the offseason measuring the moves the Redskins make. Adjusting my anticipation for the season based on knowledge of the staff, changes in personnel, schedule and the like coupled with moves around the league. Many of us go through this period of measurement. When the preseason concludes, I get to a point where I put all my thoughts into one massive core dump.

To this point I have settled in nicely thinking the Redskins, reasonably and realistically, should expect a season ranging between seven wins and nine wins. I've previously expressed my belief that when 51 guys (only Brown and Barrow having played for Gibbs and Williams previously) are thrown together in unfamiliar systems, it's reasonable and realistic to expect some discomfort in the early going.

Long have I believed when the holdover players (less than half the roster) are being deployed in RADICALLY different systems than run under Spurrier and Edwards, it will take time to assure they fit and for it to take root. A better team in November than September has been what I've believed we'd be.

Nothing in the preseason has altered that belief.

We will be a better team in November than September.

What has begun to change in my mind, though, is what being a weaker team will mean in September. To me, losing games early in the year seemed likely as Gibbs learned his players and they learned him. Falling to 2-5 or 3-6 to start the year and head into midseason seemed about right. At that point things would begin to turn.

A streak would happen. A couple of more games would be lost through the process. And next year we'd know what we have, why, and what to expect. Therefore, reasonably and realistically, a 7-9 to 9-7 seemed obvious. Grounded in football knowledge. Serious thinking based less on being a tremendously obnoxious fan of the Redskins, and simply applying years of acquired knowledge while alienating my wife six months a year through watching football.

People point to what Dallas did last year as evidence there are exceptions to the rule of adjustment. But, Dallas is a poor example on many fronts.

First, Dallas largely maintained the integrity of its roster. The wholesale changes we've made weren't made in Dallas. Personnel changes were there, obviously, swapping out better players like Noble and Hardy for lesser players like Blade and Singleton, while using Newman to stabilize a secondary in a dramatic improvement.

But, in total, Parcells brought in a couple of his guys, added a couple of other guys and kept things largely the same. This, on a 10-33 team. Continuity of form, though not of substance. The Cowboys maintained Zimmer as their coordinator. And while his attack was highly different than any the Cowboys had run previously, the language was the same.

The application was different, but, for the most part, the players knew what a play meant naturally by play call. They didn't have to interpret it piece by piece in their minds.

The Redskins have major personnel changes. Incredible differences on both sides of the ball. Further, the language has changed. The team was speaking Spanish, now, it's speaking French, and has had six months to learn it. It's not fluent in the language of the defense or the offense. We will hear play call and players will have to think. Not react.

That's why we will be better in November than we are in September. As players acquire the knowledge that allows them to play athletically within the scheme rather than processing the scheme and thinking through their play.

There's another key difference as well between the example of the Cowboys under Parcells and what one should expect of this Redskins team under Gibbs. Parcells took the league by surprise running a very bad team differently. Aggressively. Hiding defect through shock treatment.

A hyper aggressive defense supported by an effective intermediate-to deep-passing offense gave the Cowboys a break from the gate. Once teams started figuring them out, they came back to the pack, dialing back the defensive pressure, and finding the big play opportunities drying up. In essense, they were better in September than they were in November.

The Redskins are a substantially better team from an individual standpoint than the Cowboys were last year. There are stars on the helmets there. There are actual stars here. Where they had an offense run by Carter, Hambrick and Galloway, the Redskins have Brunell, Portis and Coles to rely upon. Defensively the Cowboys had Williams and Glover, with strong support from Dat and a couple of aging, but still good guys like Coakley and Woodson, where the Redskins have Arrington, the promise of Taylor and Washington and the aggressive nature of scheme unseen in years.

Once the Redskins find their footing, teams won't catch up. Teams won't scheme us in such a way that takes away what we can do. We have too much talent from a STAR level to see that happening as it happened with the Cowboys. The Redskins will finish strong.

That is the premise by which this is all based.

The Redskins will finish strong.

The Redskins will be weaker to start than they are to finish.

It's just that I no longer believe they will be weak enough to overcome the advantages inherent to Gibbs' return.

Perhaps being a fan is winning out here. I think it is. I think I know how all of us feel about Gibbs. How our excitement now is so far above the excitement we've had in 12 years. How that WILL translate to a fury in the stands unseen in that time span.

How that feeds a team. Disrupts the opposition. Ultimately creating belief.

More than ANYTHING the Redskins need to believe. They can talk about buying into Gibbs and his system. They can even believe they do. But, losing early, as should be expected by the football brain in all of us, will feed into the "Here we go again," aspect of this team with these players. They've been through the offseason hype.

A 1-3 start for this team will be more of a blow than it might be for a typical Gibbs team. We all saw the "Show me" aspect to comments made by many players in the offseason. Arrington and others essentially saying they aren't going to believe anything's different until they see it for themselves. They've now been through training camp. They see something has changed.

But, they won't believe until they win.

And they won't win until they aren't allowed to lose.

For the first time in 12 years, as fans, we won't allow them to lose. We WILL win this game. We matter more than any of us realize after years of watching a struggling team. We cheer when appropriate. We try not to boo. We are generally constrained though because there's a feeling of dread that as accompanied Redskins football for 12 years.

Even if we were to lose the opener against Tampa, the emotion and love for Gibbs and the joys he's provided us with previously, will not sap the crowd. There won't be dread at very many points of Gibbs' return. He can be 1-15 and we will never fully believe it's HIS fault. We'll always know he gives us a chance.

And that will be in our bodies and voices at the game in such a way as to create such an atmosphere it will overwhelm this team that has never experienced anything like it. They will be awed. And they will be moved.

Again, this is the fan part of me speaking, but, I anticipate an audience that is so rabidly into the game, it sends tremors through the television into our living rooms. The players will be looking into the stands, trying to figure out what's happening. They will see a crowd unleashed for the first time in a decade.

Unfettered from worry, dread, Norvitis, or any of that.

And it will feed similar play in them. Early. When they are their worst, they'll be their most emotionally high-pitched. They will have no choice. We believe. Once they really understand that, whatever hold-out worry they have about believing will be gone.

While the logical side of me still thinks it's tough to believe we'll surpass 9 wins, the emotional side of me tells me, 9 wins is way too low. Not the emotional side of an adoring fan wanting desperately to boost his boys. But, the emotional side of a person cured of a terrible, lingering illness, who simply appreciates how today is different than yesterday, and how tomorrow is going to be alright, no matter what.

People say, correctly, that Gibbs has been gone a long time and will have some adjustments to make. Those people need to realize the adjustments have already been made. When Gibbs left football, teams didn't run defenses as they do now. They run aggressive defenses. Attacking. Speed oriented. Zone blitzes. Complex layered coverages.

Gibbs adjusted. He brought in THREE defensive coordinators from last year to run his defense. Everything he could ever see from anyone in the league he's seen in practice and in meetings and on the chalk board and while having dinner with these guys. He knew when he came back what he lacked. He lacked it for 12 hours before getting Williams on board.

Gibbs will make mistakes he wouldn't have made before. But, there's no doubting he understands the differences in the game quite acutely given the experience he's surrounded himself with.

The first game of the season will be won on emotion, not logic. It won't turn on Gibbs' 12-year-absence, either from the negative of being away, or from the positive of the opposition not really knowing what's to come. It will hinge on a home crowd getting the team amped up like a pack of crazed dogs.

On the road and logic would win out.

At home, logic is pointless. In Gibbs' home opener, logic is meaningless.

I think this team WINS that first game now where I have not always thought so. And that FIRST win, to me, feeds an odd scenario where we won't actually be all that good all that consistently to start the year, but, we will come through in better shape than logic would allow you to believe.

When making predictions in this case, opportunity seems to design a different course.

A win against Tampa leads into a game against the Giants. While the Giants have enough offensive personnel to hurt us, like us, they are going through massive changes in scheme, but, they may not be quite as pleased with Coughlin as our guys might be with Gibbs. The second game may still go either way, but, it's impossible not to think a victory is exceedingly plausible and more likely than not in this contest.

Week 3 is where the worm turns for us.

The same emotion of the opener will now be magnified on a national stage fueled by a crowd tipsy after hours of tailgating before a 9 p.m. kickoff. Gibbs teams do not always start off exceptionally well. They do not always do well on Monday Night Football.

But, remember, these have long been veteran teams in the past. Guys who were still a little gassed from camp being a bit older. Guys who'd been in big games. Guys who'd won big games. Guys who didn't get jazzed up simply because it's Monday Night Football. Other teams would be amped while we wouldn't be and often the emotion the other team had would be a deciding factor. Gibbs' teams were businesslike. Professional.

Collected.

Not this team. This team is generally young. Many have been around to get pushed around by Dallas. It's a win in this third game that throws all logic out the window.

A 2-1 or 3-0 Redskins team won't finish just 9-7. And, right now, I can't see the Redskins NOT starting off in this way. A strong start fueled by the emotion of the return. Followed by a level period of uneven play and mixed results, followed by a strong finish.

A minimum record of 10-6 is now where I stand. In the end, though, it'll be 11-5, because that strong start will fuel the engine for the season.

Now, I'm done .

Obviously, you never stated we would go 3-0, however you did imply that you thought we'd start 2-1 or 3-0. I think this is where JoeSkins got the idea.

[Neophyte]

Originally posted by Om

Because now I don't have to feel bad about not having time to write my piece this week.

Bummer.

[JKS1414]

Art,

Great post..........The Skins were a team that in the past didn't really know how to compete each week......Gibbs is leading them in that direction. It will take some time for a team that has been programed the last few years just to not lose to learn to compete each week and win.......BUT you saw it starting in the Dallas game. Had this been the same team it was in the past when Dallas scored the TD to go up 21-10 the team would have rolled over and lost 35-10.....this team railled back, played hard in the 4th quarter and put themselves in a position to tie the game or win. That's what Gibbs brings to the process and the players are starting to buy into it.

Building a winning football team is a process and a journey....all we need to do as fans is sit back and enjoy the ride!!!

Great post!!!

[illone]

HAHA, you guys realize that it was a prediction, yea that's right an early PREDICTION.

I just don't see the point in throwing that in Art's face.

[JoeSkins]

I wasn't throwing anything anywhere. I just asked, and I was wrong.

[Art]

Originally posted by TerpsEagles

Art's prediction thread

...while you did in fact say 3-0, as I just quoted above, you also said in that same very post 2-1, and covered briefly the possible 1-3 start ..... yup, as i've read a lot from you in my short time here... you tend to cover just about any possible scenario so the possibility of you being wrong is about zero... you can always go back and find a quote to fit whatever the reality is..... am i right ?

Right, Terps, I did say a 2-1 or a 3-0 Redskins team is what I expected at that point. I didn't say a 3-0 team is what I expected. Had the full quote been used I'd have been fine with it, as you've done here, demonstrating well the reality of my statement. Not only did I say 2-1 in the very same post as the one you cited, I said it in the very same sentence as you cited. Context is meaningful, yes?

Interestingly, my expectation as to the start was victory based on the emotional lead of the fans and the team early in Gibbs' time. In that, I kind of thought we'd be fortunate to win. Winning with LOTS of turnovers or another team just killing itself with mistakes. I did not expect to be 2-1 or 3-0 with the type of play we've seen that has gotten us to 1-2.

In many ways, this type of play has been more encouraging despite two losses as we've controlled each of our opponents only to lose because of self-inflicted mistakes (Giants) and outside force assistance (Cowboys). We haven't seen the opposition taking it to us as a team so new together might have expected it to be taken to them.

As I said in my prediction thread, I didn't think we'd be all that good, all that consistently, yet we might win nonetheless due to the emotional factors in our favor. I didn't actually expect to have outplayed each of the opponents only to lose games either due to correctable mistakes or zebra intervention.

Honestly, that is what I always found to be the most impossible of occurances.

We do have to win this week almost at any cost to salvage a 10-6 or better record. And we may never get there even if we do win this game. I'm just thrilled with the way we've performed because it's surpassed my belief as to what was possible heading in to things, though I'm not all that thrilled with the results .

[Art]

China, answer to you above . You got it right my man .

[jrfriedm]

Gibbs is the ultimate coach, and I know that he is still trying to get his system put in place, and get all of his players and even him and his coaches on the same page. It takes time. And I think that we should give Gibbs the time he needs.

[TerpsEagles]

No worries Art. You all will dominate Cleveland this Sunday. Book it.

[TerpsEagles]

Originally posted by illone

I just don't see the point in throwing that in Art's face.

...i wasn't throwing anything in anybody's face. Art is capable of answering for himself, and when I read two things from different times that kind of appear contradictory, I post it ...... he answers... no biggie.

[jbooma]

Right, Terps, I did say a 2-1 or a 3-0 Redskins team is what I expected at that point. I didn't say a 3-0 team is what I expected.

Art next time just say this:

I think we can go 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, or even 0-3 so you can cover all the bases :laugh:

forgot

1-1-1, 2-0-1, 1-0-2, etc.......

[Art]

Originally posted by jbooma

Art next time just say this:

I think we can go 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, or even 0-3 so you can cover all the bases :laugh:

forgot

1-1-1, 2-0-1, 1-0-2, etc.......

If my intent was to cover bases, I'd be happy to. As my intent was not that, I wouldn't think that was appropriate.

[Commander PK]

Very nice post Art. You definately will bring some people down out of the clouds.