The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Chris 44]

59 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

I would also say that this goes to how we're viewed nationally as well.  I know some of our other QB moves were praised in the past, but it's hard to ignore how much this franchise has fallen in the eyes of the NFL world for the past 5 years.  We're probably the most hated team in the NFL (although the Cleveland Browns are giving us a run for our money nowadays).  We might have gotten the benefit of the doubt before, but now we're just a boring team who doesn't splurge on FA's, we have a despised owner and we're mediocre year in and year out.  This team has lost it's good will, and the benefit of the doubt a long time ago.  Unless we have several years of double digit wins and playoff wins, any moves we make will be viewed negatively.

 

Don't know that we are the "most hated" team, I think we are looked at more as a joke nationally than anything else. I agree with everything else you mentioned. Hell I think I would rather be "hated" than considered a "joke". New England's hated, or at least was, but I would love to be where they have been the last decade or so.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, ZarG3 said:

Just imagine also including McKissic with those as well as a change up. He was such a security blanket for TH last year, I am just salivating at the opportunities this offense could create if it clicks.

Yeah, I should have added McKissic in the original list.  They also have Cam Sims and Bates, and few others who could round out the list of targets.

 

I think the key is Samuel.  If he is healthy, then the whole thing comes together extremely well.  If he's not, then people are going to have to fill roles they are not meant to fill, and that will hurt them.

 

I always have high hopes for Cam Sims to break out and contribute in a more meaningful way.  But he always seems to get lost on the depth chart.

 

This year, I think it's going to be very interesting to compare the playing time of D.Brown and Cam Sims, assuming health of the other guys, to see which one gets more targets.  It will be very telling.  

 

And I really don't forsee AGG making the team, but if he can transition to TE, and Logan is out for a few weeks, he's big and fast, and as a TE, could be interesting.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

13 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Speed is a great thing, but it not itself alone an indicator of running a prolific passing offense. I remember a few years ago the Giants had the fastest projected 11 skill position players in the league. Panthers were right there with 'em too. Its nice to have, but It is not like some magic key to unlocking the deep ball or having a prolific air attack. In fact it is severely over-rated in that regard. The Bucs were dang near molasses last year.

 

Mike Evans (28) - 4.53

Antonio Brown (33) - 4.47

Chris Goodwin - 4.42

Gronk (32) - 4.68

Gio Bernard (30) - 4.53

Leo Fournette - 4.51

 

Most of those guys are not even gonna hit their posted forty times due to age, but they still cranked out a crazy prolific air attack. Brady certainly has a lot to do with that as well.

Speed is not the only thing, but if you look at the receivers we have, they were all brought in for their ability to stretch the field. Also, if you look at the Turner offense history, it's a vertical passing game.  There is some quick game, and a lot of stretch the field in the offenses. 

 

13 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Were very likely gonna be short Logan Thomas for some period of time. That's a major contributor. Samuel will likely be pulling double duty as a RB, further harming the Pass/Run ratio. Dotson is a rookie and Dynami might as well be one after his first year was essentially a punt. Even with Terry pulling the absolute weight of the world, your talking about a group that ranks in the dregs of the league in terms of proven production. Their ability to succeed on any level is nearly entirely potential based. Potential I like in a lot of cases, but potential none the less.

I doubt Samuel is going to do much except a "gadget guy" in the run game.  They have Gibson, McKissic and Robinson to be the running backs, so maybe Samuel gets a few jet sweeps, but I don't think they're going to use him as a primary back.  Especially with his health situation.

 

I disagree to an extent.  Samuel is absolutely a proven commodity, and a very good one.  He had a bad season because of injury.  But if he's healthy, and plays the way he is capable of playing, Terry + Samuel is a very dynamic one/two punch.  

 

Dotson is a rookie, so we'll see.  But he has been impressing in OTAs/Mini-Camp the same way Terry did when he was a rookie.  So there is hope.

 

Gibson and McKissic are both proven commodities as well, McKissic especially in the pass game.

 

I agree, losing Thomas is going to hurt.

 

I agree to an extend a lot is based on potential, but I do think they have some proven talent.  

 

13 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Meanwhile we have the guy who ranked 6th in rushing last year, playing vs defenses that knew they could stay so shallow they could line up in our backfield before a play started. Even maintained continuity by bringing back McKissic. That alone is a good level of proven production, that we have already demonstrated our ability to execute. Add on the absolute gravy of whatever Robinson and Samuel provide, and it takes the RB situation over the top. Its not quite Chubb and Hunt in Clev, but this is one of the best RB rooms in the NFL. 

"Points come out of the passing game." - Ron Jawarski.  For like 20 years on ESPN.  

 

Having the 6th leading rusher on the team was great.  We won a couple fluke games and scored no points.  

 

Put me in the camp of "I don't care" about this at all.  I don't want to be in a slog to win games 15-12 every goddamn week.  

 

Run-first teams don't win.  This is why I think the Eagles are going to come back to the pack some this year.  Unless Hurts either develops into Lamar Jackson or really develops as a passer, run-first teams don't win, at least not in the playoffs.  And even the Ravens WITH Lamar haven't won in the playoffs. The Colts were a run first team last year, with very competent QB play, and THEY didn't win.

 

This team cannot win as a run-first team.  They have to be aggressive and throw the ball down the field a lot.  That's the style that marries the QB and the skill position talent they have acquired.  

 

If they try and go smash-mouth run first offense, they will fail.  

 

13 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Right now, at this very moment, people should be very confident in our ability to build a prolific rushing attack if so desired and at best only hopeful of our ability to field a prolific passing one if that is the chosen direction. Between a lack of proven production, a massive reliance on rookies between WR and TE, a QB learning a new system, an OC who has never fielded that sort of offense successfully (Even if it was not his fault due to handicaps)... there are simply way too many question marks.

I honestly don't care if they build a prolific rushing attack at all.  If they do, they will be, at best a 10-7 team and an early exit from the playoffs.  

 

If they want to contend for anything, they have to build a prolific offense through the passing game.  If they can't do that, then either:

 

a) they have the wrong QB

b) they have the wrong coordinator

c) we have grossly over-estimated the weapons.

 

And I think in that order.  

 

13 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

For that angle alone I think we end up with a top 10 rushing rate next season. Turner would be scattering his O's fate to the Quantum winds to try and go pass happy with that backdrop.

If this ends up happening, unless it's accompanied by a consistent, point scoring deep passing attack, and the team is averaging at least 27 points per game, it would be massively disappointing.  

 

If we fall into the "Run the ball, play good defense, win close games" routine, then we're totally screwed.  

 

This needs to be an aggressive, down-field attacking offense.  If it doesn't work and they have to adapt at some point, fine, but then you've failed at something.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

Ut oh lol...

 

 

 

 

*I love stirring **** up lol...

So, I just want to point out this guy is an R&D Intern at PFF.

 

The guy who he co-credits is also an R&D Intern at PFF.

 

You're going to have to excuse me if I don't take seriously a "decision making" metric from 2 PFF interns. Regardless of what it said.  Though, I think they probably got the top guy right. Just based on reputation.   

 

Also, whenever somebody brings up PFF, I swore and oath to remind everybody this guy (look down) is their dear leader.  And he has the mental acuity of a banana slug.  

 

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[Califan007 The Constipated]

5 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So, I just want to point out this guy is an R&D Intern at PFF.

 

The guy who he co-credits is also an R&D Intern at PFF.

 

You're going to have to excuse me if I don't take seriously a "decision making" metric from 2 PFF interns. Regardless of what it said.  Though, I think they probably got the top guy right. Just based on reputation.   

 

Also, whenever somebody brings up PFF, I swore and oath to remind everybody this guy (look down) is their dear leader.  And he has the mental acuity of a banana slug. 

 

 

Pointing out the flaws in their methodology would probably be a better route...I'm guessing very few of us could intern at PFF, nonetheless come up with a different way of measuring QB performance. Message boards tend to be full of "eye tests" and passing off what others have said as their own thoughts lol.

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

 

Pointing out the flaws in their methodology would probably be a better route...I'm guessing very few of us could intern at PFF, nonetheless come up with a different way of measuring QB performance. Message boards tend to be full of "eye tests" and passing off what others have said as their own thoughts lol.

I've hired enough interns at a variety of really good companies from great schools.

 

None of them know anything about anything. Ever.  That's why they are interns.  You learn stuff and make a lot of stupid mistakes so you make less of those stupid mistakes later in life.  

 

So, I'm perfectly happy to shoot the messenger on this.  

 

And I'm not going to assume that PFF has any stringent intern hiring policies strictly based on the cadre of incompetent ass hats they generally employ, and their fearless dumbass leader.

 

Can you tell, I really loath PFF? It's getting worse.  They used to be good.  Since Collinsworth bought them, they have morphed into a "greater than thou arrogant ass hat know it all talk down to people crap company.

 

This has nothing to do with how they rate any player I care about.  It's because I've worked in and around analytics and predictive analytics long enough to see phonies and wannabes and headline grabbers when I see them.  

[D’Pablo]

How does one measure QB decision making?
 

What if a QB threw to an area where a receiver was supposed to be resulting in an interception or incompletion? What if the QB was hit while throwing resulting in an errant pass? What if a QB was directed to make a throw regardless of their pre-snap read? What if the QB’s line is a sieve? 

 

This metric has to be biased toward outcome, which means it’s utterly useless.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

9 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I've hired enough interns at a variety of really good companies from great schools.

 

None of them know anything about anything. Ever.  That's why they are interns.  You learn stuff and make a lot of stupid mistakes so you make less of those stupid mistakes later in life.  

 

So, I'm perfectly happy to shoot the messenger on this.  

 

And I'm not going to assume that PFF has any stringent intern hiring policies strictly based on the cadre of incompetent ass hats they generally employ, and their fearless dumbass leader.

 

Can you tell, I really loath PFF? It's getting worse.  They used to be good.  Since Collinsworth bought them, they have morphed into a "greater than thou arrogant ass hat know it all talk down to people crap company.

 

This has nothing to do with how they rate any player I care about.  It's because I've worked in and around analytics and predictive analytics long enough to see phonies and wannabes and headline grabbers when I see them.  

 

 

It's fine that you hate PFF...but what about the methodology behind their analysis? I have no idea what XGboost is, for example lol...

 

 

2 minutes ago, D’Pablo said:

How does one measure QB decision making?

 

 

They explain what they're meaning in their methodology.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Califan007 The Constipated

[Koolblue13]

The carolina game just got more interesting. 

[Ball Security]

2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

The carolina game just got more interesting. 

We don’t play Carolina this year.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

1 minute ago, Ball Security said:

We don’t play Carolina this year.

 

Well, he didn't say our Carolina game lol...

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

We don’t play Carolina this year.

The browns game just got a lot easier. 

 

I'm glad he didn't go to Seattle. I like Baker.

 

this is a great deal for Carolina if it works.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

The browns game just got a lot easier. 

 

I'm glad he didn't go to Seattle. I like Baker.

 

this is a great deal for Carolina if it works.

 

A conditional 5th round pick two years from now?...Why not just hold the door open and pat Mayfield on the back as he leaves instead? lol...I once traded in a used 12-year-old 1982 Honda Civic hatchback and got more in return than the Browns did.

[FootballZombie]

Very interested to see how the split financials work out. I'm guessing somewhere around a 9 Mil hit for Car. Only a conditional 2024 5th (Not even 2023?!) as well? Unless that is a crazy conditional, that's a very low cost. Good on the Panthers.

 

It took them a while, but they got a guy at low investment and low cost. I'm jelly about that.

[Ball Security]

9 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

The browns game just got a lot easier. 

 

I'm glad he didn't go to Seattle. I like Baker.

 

this is a great deal for Carolina if it works.

Jacoby Brissett and Josh Dobbs if Watson is suspended for the season.

[FootballZombie]

Sooo... Barring injury.... Jimmy G to SEA when?

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Sooo... Barring injury.... Jimmy G to SEA when?

 

Has any team even been rumored to want Jimmy G?

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

 

It's fine that you hate PFF...but what about the methodology behind their analysis? I have no idea what XGboost is, for example lol...

Honestly, I only made it about 1/3 of the way through the gobldygook before I quit. 

 

If you are interested (I doubt it, and you probably shouldn't be) but if you want a description of XGBoost is, look here: https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/glossary/data-science/xgboost/ It's basically a library you can use with a programing language to build a machine learning application/model.  (That's a gross simplification which lacks some specificity, but it's the general gist.)

 

They basically built a machine-based learning model to feed things into and then it would spit out answers. NOTE: This is not easy and very impressive.  So, good on them.  However...

 

The basic premise of the entire exercise to assign a probability of success to each route based on game situation and route completion percentage, adjusted for the defense. Which again, is fine, but how?

 

What they're kindof doing is some Keynesian economics stuff by "assuming a perfect world."   So, they look at the probability a slant (for example) to be completed on 1st and 10 from the 30, vs. a hitch vs. an arrow, vs. whatever.  The model looked at every one of them over 3 years, and modeled out how sucesful each route was.  Then they adjust it based on the CB's rating (another flaw, the PFF ratings are for ****, but they build all this other analytical stuff on top of them), and then they try and predict which route would have the highest probability of success.

 

So if a 1st and 10 play from your 30 has a slant, a deep out combination on one side and a go route and a flat route on the other side, each of those would be assigned a probability of success.  

 

And then it seems like they measure the QB on how often they hit the highest probability route.

 

But that doesn't actually REALLY take into context the game.  So, if they highest probability assigned by the model is a slant (again, for example), but in the actual game, the DB shaded inside and covered it like a blanket, and the QB went to another read, the QB still gets dinged in that situation because he didn't hit the highest probability completion.  

 

Another example is the slant could actually be used as a decoy in the given play, and the actual play could be to try and leak the TE behind the slant, but there is no way for the model to know that.

 

Or, it's possible the slant, which might be the highest probable completion on a given play, the CB comes up and jams the receiver and takes the inside away on a given play, the route is dead.  But there's no way the model knows this. 

 

What the model does is it looks at ALL slants for 3 years in a given game situation and then comes up with a number.  So it removes context. 

 

At the end of the day, (it's night, but also) the only way this can be done is by coaches who KNOW what the play dictates, what the read progression is, and where the ball should go depending on the coverage.  

 

So, in summary, this is exactly the type of useless crap that an Intern for PFF would work a lot of hours to put together and PFF would publish because 97% of the people won't understand the methodology (and I confess, some of it is WAY over my head too) but it's a lot of big words and complex concepts so they seem smart.

 

I am not really taking a dig at the interns.  I'm sure both of these guys are really smart dude with good developing skills in analytics and data science.  They might even know a little bit about football. And doing this exercise was probably massively valuable for them.  So kudos to them.  

 

But the whole concept of the study is flawed right from the jump when you try and put a probability on a route depending on down/distance and game situation.  You just CAN'T do that.  I also don't know if they took into account things like weather, home/away, indoor/outdoor, and offensive skill position strength, what routes the QB throws best, what the receivers run best, etc.  

 

I just thought of another flaw: this also doesn't take into account (because it can't) any pre-snap reads which are also QB decisions. Brady wins the play before the snap.  (He also wins it during the snap, after the snap, during the rest of the game and all the way home to Geisel.  But he is kdinfo unique...) His ability to get the team into the right play is at least a large percentage of his greatness.  And that is not accounted for at all.  Even though he's first.  

 

So, thank you for challenging me to actually write down why I don't take anything an Intern does as gospel.  It re-confirmed my position.  And Cris Collinsworth is still an idiot.   

13 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

A conditional 5th round pick two years from now?...Why not just hold the door open and pat Mayfield on the back as he leaves instead? lol...I once traded in a used 12-year-old 1982 Honda Civic hatchback and got more in return than the Browns did.

And they are picking up half the cost.

 

I said from the beginning, NOBODY was trading anything for a QB in the last year of his deal and then paying him $18m. 

 

Baker must have been good with Carolina, because he would have had to have agreed to a contract restructure for this to happen, and do so without "new money."

 

Basically, the Browns saved $9m on the cap this year over just releasing him.  That's the trade.  

 

Carolina has the cap room.  So this works for them.

 

Sam Darnold must be very sad.

[FootballZombie]

1 minute ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Has any team even been rumored to want Jimmy G?

 

Just a bunch of media people pushing the idea that they should go in that direction, not so much that they are trying to.

 

 

 

According to this artcicle the Panthers will pay Mayfield even less then I thought.

 

"The Panthers will pay $4.85 million of Mayfield's salary while the Browns will pay $10.5 million. The deal is pending a physical.

The Browns will receive either a fourth- or fifth-round pick in 2024, depending on Mayfield's playing time in Carolina."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34201889/cleveland-browns-trade-baker-mayfield-carolina-panthers-draft-pick

 

 

5 Mil cap hit and 2 year away future 4-5 for Mayfield... Absolute couch cushion change...

[Voice_of_Reason]

7 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Sooo... Barring injury.... Jimmy G to SEA when?

Never.  

 

He's going to stay in SF and start the year.  Assuming his shoulder is healthy enough to throw a football.  

1 minute ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Just a bunch of media people pushing the idea that they should go in that direction, not so much that they are trying to.

 

 

 

According to this artcicle the Panthers will pay Mayfield even less then I thought.

 

"The Panthers will pay $4.85 million of Mayfield's salary while the Browns will pay $10.5 million. The deal is pending a physical.

The Browns will receive either a fourth- or fifth-round pick in 2024, depending on Mayfield's playing time in Carolina."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34201889/cleveland-browns-trade-baker-mayfield-carolina-panthers-draft-pick

 

 

5 Mil cap hit and 2 year away future 4-5 for Mayfield... Absolute couch cushion change...

This is a good deal.  The problem, of course, is if it works out, he's a FA in the Cousins level of leverage after the season.  Which is why they got him for nothing.  

 

What are the odds Baker is franchised twice and then hits FA?  I think better than 50/50.  

[NickyJ]

I respect Mayfield the player. I don't care for Mayfield the person. I hope he and Wentz torch the NFL this season. I want to listen to the sweet lamentations of the Colts' and Browns' front offices as they rush to explain why the creep and the QB who belongs in a museum were not the saviors of their franchises.

 

I promise you, Matt Ryan's name will be in the Hall of Fame. It'll be written on an exhibit about the biggest choked lead in NFL history, but it'll be there. Chew on that, haters.

Edited July 6, 2022 by NickyJ

[FootballZombie]

Good Googly Moogly, Browns at Panthers in week 1!

 

 

Over under on Baker Mayfield death stares is 20.

 

 

Shame its a 1:00pm game like ours. I mighta watched that...

[Califan007 The Constipated]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Honestly, I only made it about 1/3 of the way through the gobldygook before I quit.

 

 

So it wasn't just me lol...

 

Seriously, though, appreciate your attempt to put what they wrote in English lol. A few comments:

 

I lumped all these first comments together...

 

"But that doesn't actually REALLY take into context the game.  So, if they highest probability assigned by the model is a slant (again, for example), but in the actual game, the DB shaded inside and covered it like a blanket, and the QB went to another read, the QB still gets dinged in that situation because he didn't hit the highest probability completion....Or, it's possible the slant, which might be the highest probable completion on a given play, the CB comes up and jams the receiver and takes the inside away on a given play, the route is dead.  But there's no way the model knows this....I just thought of another flaw: this also doesn't take into account (because it can't) any pre-snap reads which are also QB decisions. "

 

- Did they not use any of their personal observations in the equation? I thought (or assumed) they did...because if so, they would have seen things like the above before entering the data into their program (guess they could also do it afterwards but that would be a **** and a half to do)

 

 

"Another example is the slant could actually be used as a decoy in the given play, and the actual play could be to try and leak the TE behind the slant, but there is no way for the model to know that."

 

- Or for them to know that lol (one of my criticisms of PFF's normal grading system)

 

 

"But the whole concept of the study is flawed right from the jump when you try and put a probability on a route depending on down/distance and game situation.  You just CAN'T do that.  I also don't know if they took into account things like weather, home/away, indoor/outdoor, and offensive skill position strength, what routes the QB throws best, what the receivers run best, etc."

 

- I seem to recall them mentioning they took into consideration offensive skill position strength (or at least the skill level of individual offensive players)

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

24 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

 

So it wasn't just me lol...

 

Seriously, though, appreciate your attempt to put what they wrote in English lol. A few comments:

The PFF "methodology" things have become basically "look how smart I am at things you don't understand and worship my smartness."  It's fairly nauseating.  Just like their emperor.  

 

24 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

I lumped all these first comments together...

 

"But that doesn't actually REALLY take into context the game.  So, if they highest probability assigned by the model is a slant (again, for example), but in the actual game, the DB shaded inside and covered it like a blanket, and the QB went to another read, the QB still gets dinged in that situation because he didn't hit the highest probability completion....Or, it's possible the slant, which might be the highest probable completion on a given play, the CB comes up and jams the receiver and takes the inside away on a given play, the route is dead.  But there's no way the model knows this....I just thought of another flaw: this also doesn't take into account (because it can't) any pre-snap reads which are also QB decisions. "

 

- Did they not use any of their personal observations in the equation? I thought (or assumed) they did...because if so, they would have seen things like the above before entering the data into their program (guess they could also do it afterwards but that would be a **** and a half to do)

So, exactly what they put in the model is unclear.  But when you're using a "machine learning" type of model, in theory, it does some of this on it's own.  It's really good at recognizing patterns.  However, there are only so many patterns here.  The players change, the situation changes, different receivers are better at different routes, different cover guys are better at covering different routes, the pass rush is a factor which doesn't seem to be entirely accounted for. (Though I didn't get through all of the description, so maybe it's in there somewhere? Honestly, as soon as they said "probability of a completion" they lost me.  I fought through another few paragraphs, but I just don't believe that's statistically possible to quantify across the league.

 

There are just so many factors, building a model to account for all of them is almost impossible.

 

So what you do is you build a model based on what YOU think is important as the analyst/coder.  

 

24 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

"Another example is the slant could actually be used as a decoy in the given play, and the actual play could be to try and leak the TE behind the slant, but there is no way for the model to know that."

 

- Or for them to know that lol (one of my criticisms of PFF's normal grading system)

Yeah, they nor the model have absolutely NO idea what the INTENT of any play is.  And again, when I go to the "probability of completion" which is the cornerstone of the "good decision" metric, I don't know that is ACTUALLY what the "denominator" should be.  

 

A "good decision" might be throwing the ball directly into the dirt because Luavao can't block a tackling dummy.  But how would a computer model know that in THAT situation, the "right" decision is to eat the ball.  

 

It's almost a "play by play" evaluation of what the "right decision" is, and the only people actually know are the coaches.  Because they know the intent of the play call.

 

 

 

24 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

"But the whole concept of the study is flawed right from the jump when you try and put a probability on a route depending on down/distance and game situation.  You just CAN'T do that.  I also don't know if they took into account things like weather, home/away, indoor/outdoor, and offensive skill position strength, what routes the QB throws best, what the receivers run best, etc."

 

- I seem to recall them mentioning they took into consideration offensive skill position strength (or at least the skill level of individual offensive players)

 

Ok, fine, maybe, as I said, I gave up somewhere.

 

But to summarize, I find the PREMISE of the exercise flawed.  So everything after that has to be flawed.  I don't think, without knowing the read progression and intent of the play, you can determine what the "right" throw is, and therefore calculate in any way if the QB threw to the "right" receiver.

 

For example, maybe there is a 70% completion probability on a swing route, and 40% completion percentage on a "honey hole" throw farther down field.  If you're looking at completion probability, and the QB takes a shot at the big play, and it misses, was it a bad decision?  Well, that depends.  Did the QB see that the safety was slow to cover, and thought he could fit it in there?  Was the decision right but the throw bad? (TH special on that one, he had Terry in that "honey hole" a bunch and just couldn't hit the throw, but he tried to over and over and over.)  If it's complete even though it's high risk, is that a good decision?  

 

There is so much "it depends" that I just find the whole exercise pointless.  

 

Though, candidly, if this was my summer intern project, it would have been pretty cool. 

 

[Redskins 2021]

I know the panthers paid alot less then us but I am still happier we have Wentz. Even if we overpaid for Wentz getting him early was the right move. 

 

Wentz knows Rivera has gone all in on him and Wentz knows he is wanted here. I think that means something. Wentz did play alot better then Mayfield last year. 

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Redskins 2021