Welcome to the Redskins Terry Mclaurin WR Ohio State

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

We had an All-Pro walk away from Ron.  Not saying it was the wrong move, it was the right move.  But it was a guy who they wanted to keep, but he priced himself out.  We don’t know what value this regime puts on receiver.  

Yeah, but you also have to factor in position value.  Scherff is a guard.  A damn good guard.  But a guard.  And he has a lot of injuries.  Ron and company made him an offer, and he refused.  They weren't willing to go higher for Scherff, probably because of how valuable a guard is overall and how much time he has lost to injury.  

 

You're right, we don't know the value this regime puts on receiver. HOWEVER, it would be safe to assume it's higher than the value a guard.  

 

I also think it's going to get done.  

 

 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Yeah, but you also have to factor in position value.  Scherff is a guard.  A damn good guard.  But a guard.  And he has a lot of injuries.  Ron and company made him an offer, and he refused.  They weren't willing to go higher for Scherff, probably because of how valuable a guard is overall and how much time he has lost to injury.  

 

You're right, we don't know the value this regime puts on receiver. HOWEVER, it would be safe to assume it's higher than the value a guard.  

 

I also think it's going to get done.  

 

 

 

It's also safe to assume that they may think it's easier to draft a receiver than a guard.

 

Is that true? I don't know.

 

We just have no idea at this point.

[Voice_of_Reason]

More general thoughts, but I REALLY think this gets done.  For 2 reasons, one team related, one Terry related:

 

Team Related

They JUST traded for Wentz, Ron has said, "This is the year we need to take a step forward" and you're not going to dick around with your best playmaker on offense in that scenario.  

 

Ron needs to win. Ron also wants to look like he knows what he's doing with the Wentz trade.  Ron does not want to put Wentz out there with a rookie, a guy who was hurt all last year (Samuel), and a guy who didn't produce much in his rookie season (Brown) as his top 3 WRs.  

 

The team needs Terry on the team THIS YEAR.

 

Terry Related:

 

McLaurin almost HAS to sign a long term deal this year.  It would be massively foolish not to.  The reason being, his salary this year is $2.8 Million. He was paid a $1M signing bonus in 2019 when he was drafted.

 

If he decides to play on this deal, he misses one full year of $20M+ of salary which he will never get back. His career is as long as it will be, it's finite.  These next 4-6 years will be the prime of his career with the highest earning potential. Even if his agent things the franchise tag game might be the way to go, or hitting FA is the right way to go, they still play THIS YEAR at $2.8M instead of $20M+.   Then next year, he gets tagged or signed  ~$20-$25M.  You've still lost ~$17M no matter what. A long term deal signed next off-season would probably pay you the same next year (ish) as you would get with a long term deal signed this year.  You're not going to make up the value of 2022 the back end, and you're not going to make it up with salary/bonus increases in the next few years.

 

So, there is definitely incentive on Terry to sign a deal this off-season.  And I think he and his agent absolutely know they need to get a long term deal done this year, or they are wasting one of the prime years.  

 

I also took it as fairly positive he came out and said he wants a new deal.  It means they know their position. They don't want to leave this year on the table.  They want the payday now.  All this talk of "waiting to see who the QB is going to be, just wait until FA, etc." this is all bologna.  

 

Terry needs a new deal THIS YEAR because no matter what, if he doesn't sign one, he's giving up ~$17M of total career contract earnings.  He's going into his age 27 season. He does not want to minimize the earnings in one of his prime years. 

[KDawg]

Okay, so, I think the team will make him an offer and I think Terry has a realistic chance of staying.

 

But at what cost do we draw the line for McLaurin?

 

And if you're McLaurin, what assurances are you looking for? What kind of extras in the contract? I'd want an out clause if I were him.

 

This is a sticky situation that I think has a good chance of winding up with him staying. But to deny the idea that he may leave is naive.

 

Do I think he wants to be here? Sure. If the money is right I'm sure he'd like to not displace himself. 

 

What if his deal is 26M a year? 30M a year? 20M a year? They are all separate questions, right? So I want him here, I think he wants to be here. But there's a lot we can't know and I hope it sorts itself sooner than later. 

[Warhead36]

My line is $25 Mil a year. I think he's worth about $22M, but I'll pay a few mil extra premium to keep a team leader and to send a message to the rest of the guys that we'll take care of those who bust their butts for us.

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

It's also safe to assume that they may think it's easier to draft a receiver than a guard.

 

Is that true? I don't know.

 

We just have no idea at this point.

I think it IS safe to assume they think Schweitzer can be at least serviceable and a good starter at guard, because Scherff missed enough time, Schweitzer played enough and played well enough to make that assumption. My big question on him is if he can stay healthy.  

 

They need to add another guard.  Period.  From somewhere.  But adding a backup guard should really be easier than finding a top 15 WR.  

 

If it's not, then, Houston, we have a problem.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think it IS safe to assume they think Schweitzer can be at least serviceable and a good starter at guard, because Scherff missed enough time, Schweitzer played enough and played well enough to make that assumption. My big question on him is if he can stay healthy.  

 

They need to add another guard.  Period.  From somewhere.  But adding a backup guard should really be easier than finding a top 15 WR.  

 

If it's not, then, Houston, we have a problem.

 

They have a backup guard. They added Norwell to replace Scherff.

[Ball Security]

16 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

They have a backup guard. They added Norwell to replace Scherff.

Isn’t Norwell Flowers’ replacement as they both play left guard?

[KDawg]

Just now, Ball Security said:

Isn’t Norwell Flowers’ replacement as they both play left guard?

Could be. But they brought in a... "starting guard" to replace Scherff moreso than Flowers. But technically... yes. Because he's playing in Flowers spot.

Edited April 19, 2022 by KDawg

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Okay, so, I think the team will make him an offer and I think Terry has a realistic chance of staying.

 

But at what cost do we draw the line for McLaurin?

I think they will look at the comps.  I think the offer will be similar to the ones which are signed.  The question will be the guaranteed money and the structure.  AAV to me is mostly meaningless.  It's all about the structure.  

 

I think it will include ~$70M of guaranteed money (similar to Hill and Diggs.)  I think it will be a 4 year extension, with most of the salary increase starting in 2023, however he gets a huge bonus (pro-rated for salary cap reasons) at signing. Diggs got a $21M signing bonus.  His 2022 salary, however, stayed at $2.5M.  HIs total 2022 cap hit is $11M.  

 

The $11M 2022 cap hit would be offset entirely by the $13M cap saving by cutting Collins.  Which is one of the reason I think this gets done very shortly after June 1st.  

 

To do it before then, they would probably have to push MORE money into the out-years, which I don't think they want to do.  

 

That's just a guess though. 

 

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

And if you're McLaurin, what assurances are you looking for? What kind of extras in the contract? I'd want an out clause if I were him.

Are opt-outs a thing in the NFL? They might be, I just have never heard of them.  

 

But I would structure it, from his side, so that they would have to do SOMETHING with him in 2025.  Either extend again or cut him because the cap number balloons.  He'd still walk away with his guaranteed money + 3 years of salary.

 

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

This is a sticky situation that I think has a good chance of winding up with him staying. But to deny the idea that he may leave is naive.

I think if he and his agent decide to play this year on the $2.8M deal, that's agent malpractice.  Especially because he would be under team control for 2 more years.  They could franchise him in 2023 for approximately $20M, and then again in 2024 for ~$24M.  Great.  Then he hits FA when he's 29, and he lost ~$17M in 2022.  

 

That actually might not be the worst case FOR THE COMMANDERS.  But it would be REALLY BAD for Terry.  

 

So while I acknowledge he might leave, if I were the Commanders, I wouldn't LET him leave until after the 2024 season.  So 3 more seasons of team control. 

 

Now, let's take a look at this from Terry's side:

 

If he signs a 4 year extension, let's say the EXACT same deal as Diggs got, he is under contract through 2027.  In the next 3 years, he would make approximately $70M. And he has 2 years left on the deal which would pay him in the $20's of salary. 

 

Now, if he goes down the franchise tag route, he gets $2.8M this year, $20M next year, and $25M the year after.  That's $48M over 3 years.  

 

Which is better?  $70M over the next 3 years or $48M over the next 3 years, and then hit FA.  

 

Terry's situation is somewhat different than Cousins' situation, because Cousins first year starting was the final year of his deal.  Terry still has one year left on his deal, so that's where the difference is with the Cousins franchise tag dance.  

 

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Do I think he wants to be here? Sure. If the money is right I'm sure he'd like to not displace himself. 

 

What if his deal is 26M a year? 30M a year? 20M a year? They are all separate questions, right? So I want him here, I think he wants to be here. But there's a lot we can't know and I hope it sorts itself sooner than later. 

I think it will sort itself out.  But I think it's going to be after the draft, and I think the deal is going to look a lot like the Diggs deal, using the Collins money to offset the entirety of the 2022 cap hit.

 

And again, I can't stress this enough, the Commanders actually have leverage in this situation.  It's not entirely one-sided.  But they have leverage because they have a $2.8M 2022 and 2 franchise tags dangling in front of Terry, so they have control over him for 3 years whether he wants it or not.  One of which at a HUGE market discount.

 

That is leverage.  So Terry really can't go in and ask for the sun and the moon.  I think he's going to be reasonable. And I think it gets done. 

23 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

They have a backup guard. They added Norwell to replace Scherff.

I thought Norwell was replacing Flowers on the left side and Schweitzer was replacing Scherff on the right? 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think they will look at the comps.  I think the offer will be similar to the ones which are signed.  The question will be the guaranteed money and the structure.  AAV to me is mostly meaningless.  It's all about the structure.  

 

I think it will include ~$70M of guaranteed money (similar to Hill and Diggs.)  I think it will be a 4 year extension, with most of the salary increase starting in 2023, however he gets a huge bonus (pro-rated for salary cap reasons) at signing. Diggs got a $21M signing bonus.  His 2022 salary, however, stayed at $2.5M.  HIs total 2022 cap hit is $11M.  

 

The $11M 2022 cap hit would be offset entirely by the $13M cap saving by cutting Collins.  Which is one of the reason I think this gets done very shortly after June 1st.  

 

To do it before then, they would probably have to push MORE money into the out-years, which I don't think they want to do.  

 

That's just a guess though. 

 

Are opt-outs a thing in the NFL? They might be, I just have never heard of them.  

 

But I would structure it, from his side, so that they would have to do SOMETHING with him in 2025.  Either extend again or cut him because the cap number balloons.  He'd still walk away with his guaranteed money + 3 years of salary.

 

I think if he and his agent decide to play this year on the $2.8M deal, that's agent malpractice.  Especially because he would be under team control for 2 more years.  They could franchise him in 2023 for approximately $20M, and then again in 2024 for ~$24M.  Great.  Then he hits FA when he's 29, and he lost ~$17M in 2022.  

 

That actually might not be the worst case FOR THE COMMANDERS.  But it would be REALLY BAD for Terry.  

 

So while I acknowledge he might leave, if I were the Commanders, I wouldn't LET him leave until after the 2024 season.  So 3 more seasons of team control. 

 

Now, let's take a look at this from Terry's side:

 

If he signs a 4 year extension, let's say the EXACT same deal as Diggs got, he is under contract through 2027.  In the next 3 years, he would make approximately $70M. And he has 2 years left on the deal which would pay him in the $20's of salary. 

 

Now, if he goes down the franchise tag route, he gets $2.8M this year, $20M next year, and $25M the year after.  That's $48M over 3 years.  

 

Which is better?  $70M over the next 3 years or $48M over the next 3 years, and then hit FA.  

 

Terry's situation is somewhat different than Cousins' situation, because Cousins first year starting was the final year of his deal.  Terry still has one year left on his deal, so that's where the difference is with the Cousins franchise tag dance.  

 

I think it will sort itself out.  But I think it's going to be after the draft, and I think the deal is going to look a lot like the Diggs deal, using the Collins money to offset the entirety of the 2022 cap hit.

 

And again, I can't stress this enough, the Commanders actually have leverage in this situation.  It's not entirely one-sided.  But they have leverage because they have a $2.8M 2022 and 2 franchise tags dangling in front of Terry, so they have control over him for 3 years whether he wants it or not.  One of which at a HUGE market discount.

 

That is leverage.  So Terry really can't go in and ask for the sun and the moon.  I think he's going to be reasonable. And I think it gets done. 

 

Except I don't believe they do actually have leverage. They can't tag twice and let him go like they did with Scherff, or another Williams situation where they wind up getting nothing in return for him.

 

And Terry's agent knows that, too. 

 

Both sides have leverage. 

[Ball Security]

If they can manage their cap as they move forward and the cap expands, they basically have McLaurin on a 4/$82M deal if they aren’t afraid to use the tag three times.  That would have him under control for his age 27-30 seasons.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Just about every other team's fan that I talk to would absolutely kill for Terry.

 

I actually think our fan base doesn't appreciate him enough. Everyone else knows the guy would be an absolute dynamo with even league average QB play.

I’d disagree with that, I think our fan base does appreciate him. That’s doesn’t solve his contract situation though, or prevent differing views of that contract worth.
 

In addition, most seem to assume Mclaurin wants a long term contract here. Maybe he does. There’s a possibility he doesn’t though.

[lavar1156]

51 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

My line is $25 Mil a year. I think he's worth about $22M, but I'll pay a few mil extra premium to keep a team leader and to send a message to the rest of the guys that we'll take care of those who bust their butts for us.

Idk man. 25 mil is what the elite guys this year are getting. I do not think he is on that level. I doubt the team does either. I'd do 23 tops.

Edited April 19, 2022 by lavar1156

[Est.1974]

3 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

If they can manage their cap as they move forward and the cap expands, they basically have McLaurin on a 4/$82M deal if they aren’t afraid to use the tag three times.  That would have him under control for his age 27-30 seasons.

Mclaurin isn’t playing a down this season without a new deal. No chance.

[Est.1974]

56 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

My line is $25 Mil a year. I think he's worth about $22M, but I'll pay a few mil extra premium to keep a team leader and to send a message to the rest of the guys that we'll take care of those who bust their butts for us.

I personally think a reasonable deal would be 20mil per year with significant fully guaranteed amounts. I can’t see that being enough to retain him though. 

[Ball Security]

5 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Mclaurin isn’t playing a down this season without a new deal. No chance.

Maybe.  But then wouldn’t Washington continue to control his rights into 2023?  If he sits out 23 he doesn’t go into FA next year, right?  Doesn’t that give the team considerable leverage?

 

I believe a deal gets done this summer.

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Maybe.  But then wouldn’t Washington continue to control his rights into 2023?  If he sits out 23 he doesn’t go into FA next year, right?  Doesn’t that give the team considerable leverage?

 

I believe a deal gets done this summer.

 

Let's say that is the case...

 

You just alienated the dude you put on promotional material because you wouldn't give him a team leader face of the franchise deal.

 

Real attractive for future free agents.

[Ball Security]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

Let's say that is the case...

 

You just alienated the dude you put on promotional material because you wouldn't give him a team leader face of the franchise deal.

 

Real attractive for future free agents.

I’m all for giving him a good/fair deal.  If they were to offer him 4/88 and his agent makes him turn that down, then is that alienating him? 

[KDawg]

Just now, Ball Security said:

I’m all for giving him a good/fair deal.  If they were to offer him 4/88 and his agent makes him turn that down, then is that alienating him? 

Compared to market? Yes.

[Ball Security]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Compared to market? Yes.

That would be the fifth most AAV.  Diggs is 4/96.  And you can make these things more attractive with more guaranteed money.  Adams guaranteed amount is “only” in the 60s.

 

What is a fair offer for him?

Do you think he should be paid more than Hill?

[KDawg]

Just now, Ball Security said:

That would be the fifth most AAV.  Diggs is 4/96.  And you can make these things more attractive with more guaranteed money.  Adams guaranteed amount is “only” in the 60s.

 

What is a fair offer for him?

Do you think he should be paid more than Hill?

This isn't what I think.

 

This is a team who put him on their promotional materials. Told him he is very important. 

 

I think they will need to pay him 25/season. 60-80 guaranteed.

[Est.1974]

24 minutes ago, KDawg said:

This isn't what I think.

 

This is a team who put him on their promotional materials. Told him he is very important. 

 

I think they will need to pay him 25/season. 60-80 guaranteed.

The Adams deal with LV is basically a 3 year 68mil deal, with the last 2 years being the other 72mil. LV essentially has an easy out after year 3.

I think if you effectively fully guarantee 3 years money in the 60-65mil range you get a deal. The APY can be whatever they want it to look like for posturing purposes.

[Warhead36]

The Christian Kirk deal just blew everything up for WRs.

 

25Mil will be a bargain in a few years when guys like Justin Jefferson and CD Lamb and Jamar Chase get new deals breaking $30M.

[Est.1974]

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The Christian Kirk deal just blew everything up for WRs.

 

25Mil will be a bargain in a few years when guys like Justin Jefferson and CD Lamb and Jamar Chase get new deals breaking $30M.

That’s why the Adams deal has 35mil base salaries in years 4 and 5, to align with that perceived market rise.

 

Mclaurin may get a deal that has APY money of 25mil but I will be surprised if we or anyone else actually pays him much more than 60mil in actual cash over the first 3 years.