The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!

[Riggo#44]

13 hours ago, Ball Security said:

Meant to add that Mahle had TJ about six weeks after Cavalli. I’d pass on him.

 

Give Mahle 1 and an option? My reasoning behind him was Cavalli will need to be shut down at some point next year, and will be ready before Mahle, hypothetically. Overlap them and let Mahle cover innings. If he sucks, let him go, but if he's good, you have him another year. Parker and Herz are really interesting as they're nearing the majors. I'd love for them to turn into something

[Ball Security]

56 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

Give Mahle 1 and an option? My reasoning behind him was Cavalli will need to be shut down at some point next year, and will be ready before Mahle, hypothetically. Overlap them and let Mahle cover innings. If he sucks, let him go, but if he's good, you have him another year. Parker and Herz are really interesting as they're nearing the majors. I'd love for them to turn into something

Will Cavalli need to be shut down? I thought part of the reason in stating that he’d be back in June instead of April was because they didn’t want a Strasburg situation. I looked at a few guys (Strasburg, Verlander, and Wainwright). They were all able to pitch around 160 innings or more when they returned. If Cavalli comes back in mid-June, he’s looking at about 18-19 starts (that’s if they choose not to go to a six man rotation). You’re looking at 90-120 IP by the end of the season. I think that would be a safe workload expectation. He hasn’t worked big innings in the minors, so I don’t see them going much more than that. But I don’t see the need to shut him down in, say, late August/September.

 

I do wish the organization would be more transparent about these plans. We don’t find out until after the fact that Bennett had TJ. Is something going on with Susana? He stopped pitching this summer. They won’t say.

[Riggo#44]

5 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I do wish the organization would be more transparent about these plans. We don’t find out until after the fact that Bennett had TJ. Is something going on with Susana? He stopped pitching this summer. They won’t say.

I don't think very many teams are open about MiLB injuries and such.

 

Maybe you're right about Mahle. But that's the kind of pitching I want to go after--maybe on that hits that we can extend, while we see what Gray, Gore, Bennet, Rutledge, Irvin, Adon, Parker, Herz, and to a longer view, Sykora and Susana, among others.

[ixcuincle]

Nats win the last game of the year. End 71-91.

[Bacon]

Great game to end a solid year of improvement for this team.

[Riggo#44]

Need to take another step next year, but man, this team has a bright future!

 

[Ball Security]

Ends up being their best season since the World Series team. A 16 game improvement.

 

How? Their starting pitching was so much better. First of all, they stayed healthy. Cavalli went down before the season. But after that, Irvin jumped in for Kuhl after five starts and that five made most of their starts. Williams went on the bereavement list and Adon took his place. They then went to a six man rotation because Adon had a great first start and they wanted to manage the innings for Gore and Irvin. Those five made all but 19 starts, with only three other guys needed for the remaining starts. Far different than last year. Corbin’s ERA+ went from 62 to 83. Gray’s went from 78-110. Even though Williams was bad as a starter, he was better than Fedde: 78-68. And no one else from the 2022 staff made more than 14 starts.

 

What helped the pitching? Better play at SS with Abrams. Better CF defense with the combination of Robles, Call, and Young than the 22 version of Robles, and the better first base play of Smith over Bell and Voit.

 

71 wins is not acceptable, but it’s a step in the process. They had nice showings from their young guys. Abrams is a stud. He needs to draw more walks, but he does a lot of damage in the leadoff spot. Gore, Gray, and Irvin proved that they can provide a high floor to the rotation. Ruiz is solid at the catcher position. He didn’t quite breakout this season, but he did put up 42 XBH. I think he was overused a bit in the dog days and they have two good back up options in Adams and Millas. Hopefully they can keep him a little fresher next year. Garcia had a tough year, but after getting called back up in September he slashed .304/.360/.507. 
 

Lastly, they added six guys to their system of note. Some could really propel the team in the coming seasons: Crews, Morales, Herz, Pickney, Sykora, and Wade. (The Candelario signing turned out great).

[@DCGoldPants]

The draft order thing sucks. I think they will select 10th regardless. Now, they weren't the worst team as expected. I think there were 5 or 6 teams with worse overall records. But picking 6th or 7th would have been nicer.

 

Expected to win 55 games, won 71. If they can match that leap again, that's a wildcard team or very close to one.

[ixcuincle]

 

[Ball Security]

3 minutes ago, ixcuincle said:

 

I think the league did a really good job with the rollout of the new rules. They should be applauded.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

5 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

The draft order thing sucks. I think they will select 10th regardless. Now, they weren't the worst team as expected. I think there were 5 or 6 teams with worse overall records. But picking 6th or 7th would have been nicer.

 

Expected to win 55 games, won 71. If they can match that leap again, that's a wildcard team or very close to one.

 

Feels weird for us to be dinged in draft spots due to be a "large market" team despite not getting any TV revenue. There has to be an exception in that rule.

[ixcuincle]

it sucks we draft 10 but it is what it is. I'm fine with 71-91. Next year we really need to put up or shut up. I will say the offseason last year was so concerning, like, they did not spend any mondy. Who did they sign? Dom Smith who was up and down, and Jeter Downs who spent most of the season in the minors. We need a rotation. We need to go after pitching. Hoping we can snag Snell who had a stellar year this year. And beef up the bullpen. We had some solid bamas in the bullpen this year blowing leads.

[Ball Security]

20 minutes ago, ixcuincle said:

it sucks we draft 10 but it is what it is. I'm fine with 71-91. Next year we really need to put up or shut up. I will say the offseason last year was so concerning, like, they did not spend any mondy. Who did they sign? Dom Smith who was up and down, and Jeter Downs who spent most of the season in the minors. We need a rotation. We need to go after pitching. Hoping we can snag Snell who had a stellar year this year. And beef up the bullpen. We had some solid bamas in the bullpen this year blowing leads.

They signed Candelario who played really well and flipped him for two prospects.

 

They signed Williams for bottom rate SP money that they can put in the bullpen next season.

 

They signed Dickerson which didn’t make much sense.

 

But maybe they would be better off if they spent $460M on DeGrom, Rodon, and Benintendi to show the league that they mean business.

 

 

[ixcuincle]

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I didn't realize we even needed a scoreboard upgrade. I will say though, adding some other scoreboard, tickers, or something elsewhere in the park would help. That scoreboard isn't too visible from a lot of seats.

[Riggo#44]

I really want to see what Downs does next year. He cut his Ks down, significantly. He struck out 21 times in 41 PAs with Boston, and 99 in 335 AAA PAs in 2022

 

At Rochester, he dropped that to 24.4 to go with a 14% BB%. Like many of our prospects, he needs to hit for more power, but it's a promising development. He could be in the mix for second base next year with Garcia, maybe Lipscomb and Morales pushing their way up as well.

 

I'd really like to get Hoskins, even if it's an overpay. We need more power.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Riggo#44

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, Riggo#44 said:

I really want to see what Downs does next year. He cut his Ks down, significantly. He struck out 21 times in 41 PAs with Boston, and 99 in 335 AAA PAs in 2022

 

At Rochester, he dropped that to 24.4 to go with a 14% BB%. Like many of our prospects, he needs to hit for more power, but it's a promising development. He could be in the mix for second base next year with Garcia, maybe Lipscomb and Morales pushing their way up as well.

 

I'd really like to get Hoskins, even if it's an overpay. We need more power.

It’s easy to look at Downs stat line and say he played poorly last year. But he played better in the latter part of the season. We don’t know if they spent the season breaking down his swing/approach and building it back up. So I’m not too concerned with his final statline.

 

They challenge is that there will be a 40 man crunch this offseason where some guys will need to go. They have to add Strasburg, Cavalli, Garrett and Adams. I’m assuming they don’t bring Robles and Arano back. They’ll need to add two to four Rule V protections: DJ Jazzy Herz, Parker, Henry, and Powell. So that’s six to eight spots before making spots for FAs.

 

Top candidates, imo, would be:

Abbott, Harris, Rutherford, Blankenhorn, maybe Munoz. After that, the decisions get tougher.

 

I agree with the need for new power. If you get Haskins, who is losing ABs? Smith or Meneses? I think Meneses is a great guy to have with the old NL rules. Kind of a tough fit with today’s rules, imo.

 

I’d be interested in bringing Candelario back. Other than those two, there aren’t any other position players that stand out. I would like Bellinger and would offer him an overpay for three years so he can hit FA again. He could play CF and 1B. But with Wood and Crews knocking, he may not see it as a good fit for him.

 

Montgomery would be my main target given the expected market. I’d also see what’s up with Sonny Gray.

 

[ixcuincle]

Ownership needs to stop being stingy and spend this offseason. 2024 is the year. Bring in Blake Snell.

[Riggo#44]

25 minutes ago, ixcuincle said:

Bring in Blake Snell

You mean Patrick Corbin 2.0?

 

@Ball Security, those are good recommendations, but I think we have 0.00% shot at Montgomery. He is going to get big money from a contender, which we are not yet.

 

I don't think we have to worry about anyone taking Henry. He was awful at AA last year, after TOS. Powell would be a reach for Rule V, too, I think. But definitely the others. I'm fairly certain they'll work the Strasburg thing out, as well.

 

Bellinger would be great, but two things there too: the allure of a contender and is this a dead cat bounce season? 

[ixcuincle]

6 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

You mean Patrick Corbin 2.0?

 

@Ball Security, those are good recommendations, but I think we have 0.00% shot at Montgomery. He is going to get big money from a contender, which we are not yet.

 

I don't think we have to worry about anyone taking Henry. He was awful at AA last year, after TOS. Powell would be a reach for Rule V, too, I think. But definitely the others. I'm fairly certain they'll work the Strasburg thing out, as well.

 

Bellinger would be great, but two things there too: the allure of a contender and is this a dead cat bounce season? 

his numbers this year are insane. he deserves consideration. 

[Riggo#44]

2 hours ago, ixcuincle said:

his numbers this year are insane. he deserves consideration. 

 

He's been injured the previous two years, only pitching 256.2 total innings. He doesn't go deep into games. He walks a TON--5 BB/9. The money he is going to command is a hard, hard pass. He is almost 31, he'd probably going to command at least a 7 year deal, $240-$250m. He is a horrible risk, and I think that regression is going to come sooner rather than later. Save that money for next year when Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried among many, better options are available.

[Warhead36]

Free Agency is a crap shoot unless you're getting an absolute proven stone cold stud. So yeah if there is a Max Scherzer out there you go for him, but for every Gio Gonzalez there's also a Patrick Corbin.

[bcl05]

Corbin got us a WS win, and I think he's been awfully admirable the last few years, going out every turn even though his stuff is gone.  He's obviously trying.  It isn't working, and it would have been easy to come up with a "sore" shoulder or elbow or something to get out of the spotlight.  But he's never complained, never made excuses, and seems to be a good guy in the clubhouse.  

 

No regrets on signing that guy for me.  I wish he was better now, sure, but there's no chance we win in 2019 without him, and he's eaten a bunch of innings for us since.  So, Corbin v2.0 doesn't sound so bad to me.  (I'd pass on Snell too).  

[ixcuincle]

Most of the coaching staff was let go today.

 

 

 

3rd base coach also not retained.

 

 

[Ball Security]

15 minutes ago, ixcuincle said:

Most of the coaching staff was let go today.

 

 

 

3rd base coach also not retained.

 

 

Seems a little odd to bring back Martinez, but then shake up his staff. Bogar (bench coach) gone along with Young, Discarcina, and the assistant hitting coach.