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The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!


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4 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

Starting Trevor Williams at this point is an insult to the other players. He hasn't even been average in a long time. Give me anything else. Anything. 

 

Next season he'll be squeezed out (I think)

 

Corbin, Williams (1 of them)

+

Gore, Gray, Irvin, Cavalli (these 4)

 

Most teams don't go 6 deep at starting pitcher. I don't know what we do with either of Corbin or Williams. But there's not space for one of them right?

 

Rutledge needs another year in AAA. Unless his debut was just jitters.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Rutledge needs another year in AAA. Unless his debut was just jitters.

Give Rutledge a couple more starts. His first AAA start was bad too.

 

Williams is not not competitive out of the gate. He taxes the bullpen every time. He's just useless 

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With the AA season over, I thought I’d take a stab at ranking the top 30. (I didn’t include Young and Millas as they have been on the team a bit. I still count Rutledge.

 

1. Crews OF

2. Wood OF

3. House 3B

4. Cavalli RHP

5. Morales 3B/IB

6. Hassell OF

7. Vaquero OF

8. Herz LHP

9. Lile OF

10. Green OF

11. Susana RHP

12. Bennett LHP

13. Lipscomb INF

14. Sykora RHP

15. Rutledge RHP

16. Lara RHP

17. Pickney OF

18. De la Rosa OF

19. Parker LHP

20. Cruz SS

21. White IB

22. Henry RHP

23. Wade SS

24. Pineda C

25. Munoz RHP

26. Quintana 1B-OF

27. Mota 3B

28. McKenzie OF

29. Brzykcy RHP

30. Ramirez RHP

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On 9/18/2023 at 5:35 PM, Ball Security said:

With the AA season over, I thought I’d take a stab at ranking the top 30. (I didn’t include Young and Millas as they have been on the team a bit. I still count Rutledge.

 

1. Crews OF

2. Wood OF

3. House 3B

4. Cavalli RHP

5. Morales 3B/IB

6. Hassell OF

7. Vaquero OF

8. Herz LHP

9. Lile OF

10. Green OF

11. Susana RHP

12. Bennett LHP

13. Lipscomb INF

14. Sykora RHP

15. Rutledge RHP

16. Lara RHP

17. Pickney OF

18. De la Rosa OF

19. Parker LHP

20. Cruz SS

21. White IB

22. Henry RHP

23. Wade SS

24. Pineda C

25. Munoz RHP

26. Quintana 1B-OF

27. Mota 3B

28. McKenzie OF

29. Brzykcy RHP

30. Ramirez RHP

 

Green should be dropped below Pinckney at #17, or possibly off the Top 30 altogether. From the sounds of it, Green was a total scouting miss, his 70 speed grade never appeared and seems not capable of playing Center Field. He took some time going down to Florida to help fix his game, but upon returning his K rate is as abysmal as before. Ending his minor league season in A, he struck out at a higher rate in September than he had before going down to Florida. Unless a miracle happens, he's done.

 

Feels weird still ranking Hassell that high. He closed out AA with a good September (for him), where he wound up being an average hitter for the month. Maybe there's still something there, but #6 overall seems rich, or the rest of our farm is just that bad.

 

Lipscomb had an awful September as a batter, except his strikeout rate remained consistently good, and he was moved around to every defensive position in the infield. So maybe that messed with him a bit.

 

Wood's K rate is so bad, even during a September where he was on a heater. K rate of 35% but an OPS of .990? I read an article on the Athletic that summed up where he is as a prospect. Off speed recognition is poor (but that's apparently fixable), and he has to get used to his huge strike zone a bit more. Everything else he's crushing.

 

Then there's Brady House. What a hot September. OPS of 1.181? His K rate fell to a similar rate he had in A and A+. I wonder if he fixed what is ailing Wood, with off speed recognition.

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20 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Green should be dropped below Pinckney at #17, or possibly off the Top 30 altogether. From the sounds of it, Green was a total scouting miss, his 70 speed grade never appeared and seems not capable of playing Center Field. He took some time going down to Florida to help fix his game, but upon returning his K rate is as abysmal as before. Ending his minor league season in A, he struck out at a higher rate in September than he had before going down to Florida. Unless a miracle happens, he's done.

 

Feels weird still ranking Hassell that high. He closed out AA with a good September (for him), where he wound up being an average hitter for the month. Maybe there's still something there, but #6 overall seems rich, or the rest of our farm is just that bad.

 

Lipscomb had an awful September as a batter, except his strikeout rate remained consistently good, and he was moved around to every defensive position in the infield. So maybe that messed with him a bit.

 

Wood's K rate is so bad, even during a September where he was on a heater. K rate of 35% but an OPS of .990? I read an article on the Athletic that summed up where he is as a prospect. Off speed recognition is poor (but that's apparently fixable), and he has to get used to his huge strike zone a bit more. Everything else he's crushing.

 

Then there's Brady House. What a hot September. OPS of 1.181? His K rate fell to a similar rate he had in A and A+. I wonder if he fixed what is ailing Wood, with off speed recognition.

Couple points and questions.

 

The AA season ended on 16th. So Lipscomb only had 13 games to play in September. He got a hit in seven of those games. He had a few 0-fers in the middle of that which will make a half month of stats look bad. He has to be considered the biggest climber (along with Lile) in the organization.

 

Green had a nightmare year. And if he can’t show improvement next year, then pull the alarms. Who knows if they have tried to tear down his swing and are building it back up. (Hopefully this is also true for Brenner Cox). He did walk 52 times in only 361 PAs. For comparison, Alex Call is the only National with 50 walks and he did it in over 400 PAs. The speed is there. He stole bases at a higher rate than Abrams (not SB:CS, but SB per non triple and homerun PA). And why do you say he can’t play CF? I think I saw that Law said that at one time. But that seems like a “kick him while he’s down” comment. Now he may be viewed behind 4-5 other CFers defensively in the system. I could see that. I imagine the plan will be for him and Vaquero to alternate in CF in Fredericksburg next year similar to Hassell and Wood. But yeah, very disappointing year. The good thing is there is no need to rush his development.

 

Pickney was a wonderful surprise. He’ll be challenged next year starting out in Harrisburg.

 

I would like for the big club to be aggressive with Crews, Wood, and House. The question for House is how can he handle full time work. They successfully managed his back this season. Is that something they’ll need to continue or can he ramp up to a larger work load?

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5 hours ago, Ball Security said:

Couple points and questions.

 

The AA season ended on 16th. So Lipscomb only had 13 games to play in September. He got a hit in seven of those games. He had a few 0-fers in the middle of that which will make a half month of stats look bad. He has to be considered the biggest climber (along with Lile) in the organization.

 

Green had a nightmare year. And if he can’t show improvement next year, then pull the alarms. Who knows if they have tried to tear down his swing and are building it back up. (Hopefully this is also true for Brenner Cox). He did walk 52 times in only 361 PAs. For comparison, Alex Call is the only National with 50 walks and he did it in over 400 PAs. The speed is there. He stole bases at a higher rate than Abrams (not SB:CS, but SB per non triple and homerun PA). And why do you say he can’t play CF? I think I saw that Law said that at one time. But that seems like a “kick him while he’s down” comment. Now he may be viewed behind 4-5 other CFers defensively in the system. I could see that. I imagine the plan will be for him and Vaquero to alternate in CF in Fredericksburg next year similar to Hassell and Wood. But yeah, very disappointing year. The good thing is there is no need to rush his development.

 

Pickney was a wonderful surprise. He’ll be challenged next year starting out in Harrisburg.

 

I would like for the big club to be aggressive with Crews, Wood, and House. The question for House is how can he handle full time work. They successfully managed his back this season. Is that something they’ll need to continue or can he ramp up to a larger work load?

 

Fangraphs also reduced Green's speed grade from a 70 to a 50. They claim him adding muscle is likely the culprit. I do wonder about the SB rate in A, I bet it's boosted a lot from lack of catchers that can make the throw and pitchers who either don't speed things up when a guy is on 1st or don't have the velocity to get it to the catcher quickly.

 

image.png.77c586224b7ee63cae8a404f2c1d1bab.png

 

I really hope House's back is not an ongoing issue. By being aggressive with Crews, House, and Wood do you mean promote to AAA in 2024 earlier than normal?

 

Another big surprise and riser is Drew Millas. Went from AA, to AAA, to MLB and is hitting well in the big leagues. Also forgot Jacob Young, played 50 games in A+ and then was promoted all the way to MLB.

 

Edited by Always A Commander Never A Captain
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2 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Fangraphs also reduced Green's speed grade from a 70 to a 50. They claim him adding muscle is likely the culprit. I do wonder about the SB rate in A, I bet it's boosted a lot from lack of catchers that can make the throw and pitchers who either don't speed things up when a guy is on 1st or don't have the velocity to get it to the catcher quickly.

 

image.png.77c586224b7ee63cae8a404f2c1d1bab.png

 

I really hope House's back is not an ongoing issue. By being aggressive with Crews, House, and Wood do you mean promote to AAA in 2024 earlier than normal?

 

Another big surprise and riser is Drew Millas. Went from AA, to AAA, to MLB and is hitting well in the big leagues. Also forgot Jacob Young, played 50 games in A+ and then was promoted all the way to MLB.

 

I’d give Crews and Wood the opportunity to break camp with the big club if they can earn it.  Wood should start at AAA at a minimum, IMO. I could see Crews starting at AA or blowing people away at ST and forcing his way up. Is that rushing them? Perhaps. I see House about a half season behind Wood because of his mostly lost 22 season.  I would not be surprised if one Crews or Wood makes the OD roster.

 

You also have to have a place to play  everybody. A rough sketch

A - Green, Vaquero, Cox

A+ Lile, De la Rosa, Quintana, Thomas (maybe De la Rosa starts in Harrisburg)

AA Hassell, Pickney, McKenzie

 

 

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