BB: Obama to Israel -- Time Is Running Out

[JMS]

Wow...     Impressive. 
 
 

Obama to Israel -- Time Is Running Out
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the White House tomorrow, President Barack Obama will tell him that his country could face a bleak future -- one of international isolation and demographic disaster -- if he refuses to endorse a U.S.-drafted framework agreement for peace with the Palestinians. Obama will warn Netanyahu that time is running out for Israel as a Jewish-majority democracy. And the president will make the case that Netanyahu, alone among Israelis, has the strength and political credibility to lead his people away from the precipice.
 
In an hourlong interview Thursday in the Oval Office, Obama, borrowing from the Jewish sage Rabbi Hillel, told me that his message to Netanyahu will be this: “If not now, when? And if not you, Mr. Prime Minister, then who?” He then took a sharper tone, saying that if Netanyahu “does not believe that a peace deal with the Palestinians is the right thing to do for Israel, then he needs to articulate an alternative approach." He added, "It’s hard to come up with one that’s plausible.”

...

On the subject of Middle East peace, Obama told me that the U.S.'s friendship with Israel is undying, but he also issued what I took to be a veiled threat: The U.S., though willing to defend an isolated Israel at the United Nations and in other international bodies, might soon be unable to do so effectively.

“If you see no peace deal and continued aggressive settlement construction -- and we have seen more aggressive settlement construction over the last couple years than we’ve seen in a very long time,” Obama said. “If Palestinians come to believe that the possibility of a contiguous sovereign Palestinian state is no longer within reach, then our ability to manage the international fallout is going to be limited.”

 
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-02/obama-to-israel-time-is-running-out

[JMS]

U.S. pushing Israel to stop assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-pushing-israel-to-stop-assassinating-iranian-nuclear-scientists/

[Riggo-toni]

I don't care what the US says in public; privately we're more than happy to let Israel knock off Iranian nuclear scientists.

[Larry]

Somehow, I suspect that Israel's response to Obama is "We've been bullying the Palestenians for 50 years, we have no intention of stopping, you don't have the power to do anything about it, and your time is running out." 

[zoony]

Somehow, I suspect that Israel's response to Obama is "We've been bullying the Palestenians for 50 years, we have no intention of stopping, you don't have the power to do anything about it, and your time is running out."

Would be par for the course

[JMS]

Somehow, I suspect that Israel's response to Obama is "We've been bullying the Palestinians for 50 years, we have no intention of stopping, you don't have the power to do anything about it, and your time is running out." 

 

I don't think Obama is saying he would not use the veto in the UN  or he would not come to Israel's political defense in the face of a political isolation campaign.    I took Obama as telling Israel, that as the Palestinian majority comes of age and grows in the territory Israel controls,  Israel is going to look less and less like a democracy and more and more like South Africa under Apartheid.  South Africa was also an American alley,  was also a country which relied on the United States for economic and political support in the face of political isolation.   We were one of the last countries to stop supporting the apartheid regime.   But we did stop supporting it..   It wasn't a governmental decision either.   The global outrage over apartheid eventually reached our shores, and the stock holders in companies like GM, Ford, and General Electric demanded they divest.   Boycotts by consumers pushed these companies to divest.   Students at universities demanded their institutes of higher learning endowment funds divest.   Student sit ins and demonstrations attracted the press and further forced Universities hands.    In the end South Africa which had a much stronger, larger, and more diverse economy than Israel; was brought to heal through economic means despite US governmental support.

 

I took Obama's warning to be a statement of inevitability.  You make a fair peace deal with the Palestinians today which you can control or you risk having a deal forced on you tomorrow...  Tomorrow when the majority of people in Israel who are not Jewish, are going to simple be demanding the vote, and Israel will not long be able to resist that demand.    That's not an if,  that's a when.  When that happens,  nobody will be able to effectively protect Israel.    Not the IDF,  not the United States government.

 

That writing has been on the wall for quite a while.   That argument is why Ariel Sharon favored a two state solution,  why he left the Likud party.    Netanyahu himself has been on record favoring a two state solution for this very reason also...   Obama's saying...  it's time to make this deal,  or you will begin to risk loosing the opportunity.

[Predicto]

 

I took Obama's warning to be a statement of inevitability.  You make a fair peace deal with the Palestinians today which you can control or you risk having a deal forced on you tomorrow...  Tomorrow when the majority of people in Israel who are not Jewish, are going to simple be demanding the vote, and Israel will not long be able to resist that demand.    That's not an if,  that's a when.  When that happens,  nobody will be able to effectively protect Israel.    Not the IDF,  not the United States government.

 

That writing has been on the wall for quite a while.   That argument is why Ariel Sharon favored a two state solution,  why he left the Likud party.    Netanyahu himself has been on record favoring a two state solution for this very reason also...   Obama's saying...  it's time to make this deal,  or you will begin to risk loosing the opportunity.

 

I agree that this is what Obama is saying, and I beleive he is absolutely correct in saying it.

[sacase]

At best, Israel delays for a couple years until Obama is out of office and then starts back up again. 

[Larry]

I agree that this is what Obama is saying, and I beleive he is absolutely correct in saying it.

 

So?  They lay claim to every drop of water in Palestine, then offer them what's left. 

[balki1867]

Israel is actually a pretty bizarre set of demographics when you start breaking numbers out.  There are ~7 million people in the country, but Israel has a really low birth rate (consistent with highly educated people in any country) and the only drivers of population growth anymore are Palestinian Israelis (15% of the population and growing) and orthodox/ultra-orthodox Jews.  These are the exact two groups that are least likely to see eye-to-eye on any sort of peace negotiation. To top that, many of the middle-of-the-road Israelis who might favor some sort of compromise are the type of people who tend to have 2 or less children, and in many cases, are likely to move to the US for economic opportunities.

 

So you have a population that is getting more and more polarized-- Every year the likelihood of a meaningful peace deal gets reduced.

 

To top that Israel has some very real day-to-day concerns.  That piece of land simply can't support the 10-12 million people who live there (Israel + West Bank + Gaza Strip), so they have real issues providing things like fresh water to everyone who needs it.  As it stands the country had dammed up the (freshwater) Sea of Galilee to provide for everyone.  As a result though, the Dead Sea (which can't be desalinated), is dropping at a rate of ~3 feet per year.

 

Honestly, I just don't see it happening.  Both sides can concede a lot of things, but there are two sticking points that I don't see either side compromising on: Reparations for the refugees of 1947, and how to handle control of Jerusalem.

[JMS]

At best, Israel delays for a couple years until Obama is out of office and then starts back up again.

 

The last time we were seriously close to a deal was in Bill Clinton's last days.    Israel has done nothing under 8 years of George W. Bush when they basically had a blank check from the US do do whatever they wanted.   Israel has done nothing under the Obama administration accept accelerate building illegal settlements in the occupied territory.

 

Obama is telling them they don't have another 8 years to wait.... 

 

Population of West Bank  2,676,740 (July 2013 est.)   - 341,400 Israeli settlers    =   2,335,340  Palestinians.

West Bank

Age Structure

0-14 years: 34.4% (male 472,123/female 447,803)

15-24 years: 21.8% (male 298,875/female 284,545)

25-54 years: 35.9% (male 494,253/female 466,660)

55-64 years: 4.2% (male 55,785/female 55,872)

65 years and over: 3.8% (male 42,119/female 58,705) (2013 est.)

 

Population of Gaza 1,763,387 (July 2013 est.)

GAZA

Age Structure

0-14 years: 43.5% (male 394,108/female 372,897)

15-24 years: 20.9% (male 188,626/female 179,529)

25-54 years: 29.6% (male 268,122/female 254,630)

55-64 years: 3.4% (male 29,682/female 29,933)

65 years and over: 2.6% (male 18,701/female 27,159) (2013 est.)

Population of Non Jewish Israeli's.     1,919,053  or 24.9% of total Israeli citizenry.

 

Total Arab Population of the Lands Controlled By Israel for the last 50-70 years...  6,017,780

Total Jewish Population of Israel   5,787,988

 

Israel

Age Structure

0-14 years: 27.3% (male 1,077,081/female 1,028,192)

15-24 years: 15.7% (male 619,091/female 590,551)

25-54 years: 37.7% (male 1,485,292/female 1,422,352)

55-64 years: 8.8% (male 328,943/female 348,695)

65 years and over: 10.5% (male 355,049/female 451,796) (2013 est.)

In another 8 years the Palestinian Majority will be of age.. When that happens they won't be asking for a two state solution any longer.. They will be asking for the vote. And Israel won't be able to deny the majority a vote just on religious ethnic grounds any more than South Africa could in the early 1990's.  The longer she waits.. the larger the Palestinian Majority will grow,  the louder the calls for the vote will get.

All the demographic data comes from the CIA World Fact book

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

[JMS]

Honestly, I just don't see it happening. Both sides can concede a lot of things, but there are two sticking points that I don't see either side compromising on: Reparations for the refugees of 1947, and how to handle control of Jerusalem.

I think they had those issues along with the water problem handled back in 1998. Palestinians had a corner of Jerusalem they were going to call their capital. I think Israel didn't like it but they were going to live with it. The water was going to be handled with a water pipeline run from Turkey to Israel to divert fresh water which Turkey has a lot of.. US tax payer expense. this was important because all of Israel's most important water aquifers are in the lands Israel would be giving up... Gaza, West bank and Golan Heights.

Reparations were also settled, a lot more US Taxpayer money going to the Palestinians to pay for homes they lost decades and decades ago.

Two sticking points... Arafat insisted each Palestinian family having the right to take their lost lands back or take the money... Israel wanted them to just take the money. Arafat wanted each family to decide. They were discussing some percentage arrangement on this... Then of coarse was the big one. Arafat wanted Contiguous viable nation. Israel was only looking to give up enclaves of Palestinian areas connected by Israeli controlled roads, separated by Israeli controlled settlements and further bifurcated by Israeli controlled utilities connecting those Israeli settlements. Also Israel wanted the right to have it's armed forces move into Palestine if Israel deemed a threat.

Ultimately these issues were never resolved, while they were working on them, the Palestinian Infanata began. Arafat thought they made Israel look bad and that would give him greater negotiating capital in the talks.  So the Palistinian Authority did not move to stop the demonstrations where children threw rocks at ISraeli tanks and ultimately Israeli commanders gave orders to break children's arms in response.  This inaction by the PA so inflamed the Israeli's their PM holding the talks Barak was voted out of office and replaced by the then ultra right winger Arial Sharon, who abandoned the Peace talks all together.

[Elessar78]

Of course POTUS would say that. He is muslim after all.

[Predicto]

So?  They lay claim to every drop of water in Palestine, then offer them what's left. 

 

I suspect that is the reason why they are building settlements so fast.  They know that the day is coming where they have to cut a deal, and they want the "facts on the ground" on that day to be that they are settled into every single decent piece of land.  

[Wrong Direction]

According to this Washington Post opinion piece, the settlement statements by Obama were highly misleading. Indeed, in 2000 (during the Clinton administration) 3 times as many settlements in small bloc were built.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/israel-gets-no-credit-from-obama-for-a-year-of-moderate-settlement-construction/2014/03/13/d2ee1b12-aab8-11e3-adbc-888c8010c799_story.html

 

 

Israel gets no credit from Obama for a year of moderate settlement construction

...

But the president had his facts wrong, and a careful reading of the CBS data proves it. The pace is not “aggressive,” and almost all of the construction took place within the major settlement “blocs” — areas that past negotiations have recognized would remain part of Israel (to be compensated for with land swaps).

...

They are not isolated outposts but instead are towns with populations in the tens of thousands, near the Green Line, as the 1949 armistice line and 1967 border are known.
 

The critical figure to monitor is the number of Israeli houses built outside such blocs in areas intended for the future state of Palestine. What the CBS data tell us on that question is that only 908 units were built last year in Israeli townships of 10,000 residents or fewer. And most of those units were built in settlement towns that are part of the major blocs. Units built in areas that would become part of Palestine number in the hundreds — and likely in the low hundreds. Given that about 90,000 Israelis live in the West Bank outside the blocs, that is approximately the rate of natural growth. So much for the president’s claim of “aggressive construction.”

 

In fact, what the much-cited CBS data reveal is that Netanyahu’s track record on this issue is more restrained than that of Ehud Barak, the last Labor Party prime minister, whose government approved three times more new houses in small settlements in 2000 than Netanyahu did last year. 
...
The irony is that Netanyahu can’t publicly admit this policy because it would alienate his right-leaning political base. The settler lobby, which has a strong footing in the Likud Party, constantly criticizes Netanyahu for not permitting “sufficient” construction. To placate them, it appears that Netanyahu’s government has boosted construction in the major settlement blocs as well as in Jerusalem, which in turns buys him flak from the Israeli left, the Palestinians — and the U.S. president.