HTTR24-7:Spreading the Wealth – The Case Against Adding More Wide Receivers this Off-Season

[Lavarleap56]

In today’s NFL it seems that everyone wants a #1 wide receiver. Someone who stands 6’4 and can seemingly catch anything thrown his way despite having cornerbacks and safeties draped all over him. It’s logical on the surface when you consider some of the recent rule changes that benefit the passing game and some of the sophistication that has worked its way into the offensive game plans. However, when you actually drill down into the numbers and look at the formula of how teams have developed into Super Bowl-winners, you see a much different picture.

One of the only complaints that I’ve read or heard about the 2012 team’s offense is that it didn’t get enough productivity from its pass-catchers this year. The Redskins had great balance this past season - four players with 35+ receptions and 500+ yards - but the team highs in receptions and yards were 48 and 633, respectively. The fact that nobody even approached 1,000 yards was used as evidence that the passing game isn’t quite ready to contend and that more resources (draft picks or salary cap money) need to be spent on the wide receiver position.

Read More:http://httr24-7.com/blog/spreading-the-wealth-the-case-against-adding-more-wide-receivers-this-off-season/

[RWJ]

LL, did you say that we could/should expect our draft to include a WR?

[Lavarleap56]

LL, did you say that we could/should expect our draft to include a WR?

I wouldn't expect one per say but I wouldn't rule it out. I think they are looking for a 3rd down RB/Slot back. Think of a guy that can fill the role they had for Banks/Royster and Helu ( If he can't get healthy ). I could also see them taking Terrance Williams If they don't like the safety/CB options at 51.

[Skinsinparadise]

I wonder about Hankerson. I was excited when we drafted him. And while like all of us, I watched every game, I've not studied him closely on tape. To my naked eye, for a big guy he doesn't play big and tough especially up the middle. Morgan, Garcon, and Moss just seems tough -- Hankerson not as much so. I recall reading Keim saying that some people studying Hankerson aren't impressed with his ability to separate.

My other wonder is Aldrick Robinson. RG 3 throws a super deep ball. Hankerson seems to struggle to gain separation to be a deep threat. But, Robinson has the speed though outside of the Eagles and Cowboys game, he was a non factor. My point is wonder if we need a young deep threat to maximize RG 3's potential, yeah T. Williams on the off chance is there at our #2 pick, would be ideal. Heck i wonder if they'd trade up for him. I saw most of Baylor's 2011 games, though two together were magic.

[Skinsinparadise]

I wonder about Hankerson. I was excited when we drafted him. And while like all of us, I watched every game, I've not studied him closely on tape. To my naked eye, for a big guy he doesn't play big and tough especially up the middle. Morgan, Garcon, and Moss just seems tough -- Hankerson not as much so. I recall reading Keim saying that some people studying Hankerson aren't impressed with his ability to separate.

My other wonder is Aldrick Robinson. RG 3 throws a super deep ball. Hankerson seems to struggle to gain separation to be a deep threat. But, Robinson has the speed though outside of the Eagles and Cowboys game, he was a non factor. My point is wonder if we need a young deep threat to maximize RG 3's potential, yeah T. Williams on the off chance is there at our #2 pick, would be ideal. Heck i wonder if they'd trade up for him. I saw most of Baylor's 2011 games, those two together were magic.

I get the secondary is our top need. But this is a deep draft for WR, wonder if we can address both, or use free agency.

[Skinsinparadise]

sorry duplicate post

[RWJ]

I got to give Hank the beneift of the doubt. He came back from a hip injury so this upcoming season should show what he's really got.

[DogofWar1]

TRITRITRI TRIPLE POST

Haha, that stuff happens sometimes, the server gets wonky.

The wide receiver corp isn't set, I believe, because while I think last year's group was very good, it might not remain like that for the following reasons:

Morgan - Contract year. A solid receiver, I wouldn't mind him back, but money vs. production might make that problematic. Either way, assuming he's here for the long haul is potentially dangerous.

Moss - Age. Last year he played great, but there is that ever present threat he falls off the cliff, or at least declines too much. That and his 5M salary...

Hankerson - Development. Right now he's a solid #3, with flashes of #2 and even #1 potential. The question mark is whether that development continues or not. If it doesn't he might not last beyond the 2014 season.

Robinson - Development. He's a one-trick pony at this time, which is fine because it's only his 2nd year and he sort of wallowed in obscurity in 2011. The thing is, he needs to become a more complete receiver, (ideally in the slot to take Moss' place) or else we'll have another Anthony Armstrong. Not that there was anything wrong with Armstrong for what he was, but a guy like that should be 4th or 5th on the depth chart.

Last year's group of: Garcon #1, Hankerson/Morgan splitting #2 outside, Moss in the slot, and Robinson handling deep balls when the situation allowed it worked very well, but Moss and Morgan might not be here past this year. Suddenly the depth chart is Garcon, Hankerson, and Robinson, and that would be concerning if Hankerson and Robinson don't develop further.

Now, I'm optimistic about them both (especially Hank, he's never had a full offseason until this year), but I wouldn't mind us looking into alternatives for the sake of being safe rather than sorry. Terrance Williams would be great as outside insurance for Morgan, as would a guy like Bailey or Wheaton (or Swope) to use as a future slot guy replacement for Moss.

[Skinsinparadise]

I got to give Hank the beneift of the doubt. He came back from a hip injury so this upcoming season should show what he's really got.

I agree. I was at the Miami game last year where he got hurt, his one game where he arguably looked like a #1. I guess what has stuck with me some about him is Trevor Matich when asked about who he was impressed and unimpressed with watching training camp in 2011, picked on Hankerson as the guy who he was unimpressed with saying something to the effect of Hank not practicing with intensity, seemed lackadaisical, not running hard in drills, etc. And maybe i am still sore at his non catch against Seattle which could have changed the game. Plus you watch Garcon, Morgan, and Moss those guys play with spunk and toughness -- if Hankerson has those traits it seems less obvious to me. Hankerson though is becoming a good blocker.

[Dirt]

I like it, I like it. Besides, I still say Garcon IS that "#1 guy all teams have to have". Crazy athletic, adjusting catches, and finishing off in the END ZONE. You're downright spoiled if you ask for anything more.

But it appears the Shannys liked having a guy like Banks in the backfield. I mean, it was clearly his poor returning game that cost him his spot. Otherwise, he made a couple (only a couple but still) plays, and was an okay decoy if nothing else. So maybe we get a guy like that, but I don't see why Santana or Aldrick can't be that guy.

[BadKarma]

I think we look to draft up to 2 TE's this offseason and stick with the current WR group promoting continuity around RG3, and yes this gives Santana another year to play for a winner. I am not overly optimistic about our WR group other than Garcon but in tough salary cap times in DC I dont think we can afford to look to add anyone on the offensive side of the ball (outside of RT) and still address the defense's shortcomings.

[darrelgreenie]

I agree completely with the article. I've been thinking the same about the WRs for awhile now.

People seem to be individual stat focused as a measure of WR performance. But, the events and the style of our offense don't lend themselves to large statistical production from the WRs. We run the ball more then we pass, and we platooned our WRs and spread around the targets.

Ryan mentioned how we have 4 WRs with over 500 yards receiving. Our top 4 WRs all rank in top 64 according to Football Outsiders which makes the whole core as #2 quality or better (Garcon/Moss).

A little known tidbit is that the much maligned Hankerson had the lowest drop percentage on the team (PFF). Football Outsiders actually rates last years passing offense #6 in the NFL. Its was also #1 in YPA @ 8.3 and YPA is considered a quick and dirty snapshot of the passing game as a whole.

Imho a healthy Garcon and Morgan combined with Hankerson and lead by Tana the elder statesman is a group I look forward to watching and hope is kept together and allowed to develop and build chemistry with Robert.

---------- Post added February-18th-2013 at 09:42 PM ----------

I wonder about Hankerson. I was excited when we drafted him. And while like all of us, I watched every game, I've not studied him closely on tape. To my naked eye, for a big guy he doesn't play big and tough especially up the middle. Morgan, Garcon, and Moss just seems tough -- Hankerson not as much so. I recall reading Keim saying that some people studying Hankerson aren't impressed with his ability to separate.

I agree to an extent; Hankerson is a finese WR in my book.

Hankerson doesn't appear to play 'strong'. It seems like he can easily be knocked off stride with contact and doesn't play the ball strong in the air and he doesn't track the deep ball well.

I also think Hankerson is a little shy about contact, but there are many quality WRs who weren't fond of contact like Marvin Harrison.

On the plus side he has good hands and can make the tough (as he showed in college with many extremely difficult catches (often one-handed) that he had look easy. He has smooth acceleration and above average long speed. His body type is strange, he's very wiry and lanky with good agility. I can't think of many receivers that have Hankerson type of frame/movement. He kinda reminds me of Brandon Lloyd/shorter version of a young Plaxico Burress/shorter Randy Moss with less speed and no where near the ballskills in the air.

If Hankerson thinks they're gonna hand him the opportunities he's dead wrong. This offense doesn't have a ton of targets for the WRs, its not like the early years of Kyle's offense. Hankerson without a doubt has the skillset/talent but imo he's gonna have to step up his game and force the Kyle/Mike to play him. Garcon, Tana and Morgan are gonna bring it every practice and Hankerson has to get on their level.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Last year's group of: Garcon #1, Hankerson/Morgan splitting #2 outside, Moss in the slot, and Robinson handling deep balls when the situation allowed it worked very well, but Moss and Morgan might not be here past this year. Suddenly the depth chart is Garcon, Hankerson, and Robinson, and that would be concerning if Hankerson and Robinson don't develop further.

This is a fear of mine, and it's not an unreasonable what/if scenario either.

as would a guy like Bailey or Wheaton (or Swope) to use as a future slot guy replacement for Moss.

I like all 3 of them.

[TSO]

This has been a nice topic to discuss this offseason. Me and darrelgreenie had a nice little chat about it a month ago, lol.

I'll just say that DogofWar explained my position pretty well. I love our WR situation as it stands in the present, however, both Morgan and Moss present a problem. Morgan, because he's only signed here through this upcoming season, and Moss, because he's at the age where you have to worry about a skill player's athleticism dropping off heavily at any given moment.

If we can extend Morgan this offseason, that'll be the end of that. But we need to find a replacement for Moss' production. That may come from Robinson, or even Hank, but if the FO isn't sure Robinson is the guy moving forward, I think that's something we just might HAVE to address this offseason. Otherwise, aren't we walking on thin ice? It might be a risk worth taking considering our cap issues, but if we can bring in a slot guy either via FA or through the draft, I think it'd be a smart move. If not, I won't lose any sleep at night over it and I'll definitely be optimistic that Moss has at least one more year at the level he plays at in him.

Either way, it needs to be addressed now or next offseason. If we don't address it at all this year, in my mind that says the FO is really positive about Hank and Robinson... which is good news to me.

It is so nice to know the FO will make solid decisions on this though. I feel really confident that they won't just wait for a guy to drop off like we used to do before. They'll have a plan in place.

[Skinsinparadise]

On the plus side he has good hands and can make the tough (as he showed in college with many extremely difficult catches (often one-handed) that he had look easy. He has smooth acceleration and above average long speed. His body type is strange, he's very wiry and lanky with good agility. I can't think of many receivers that have Hankerson type of frame/movement. He kinda reminds me of Brandon Lloyd/shorter version of a young Plaxico Burress/shorter Randy Moss with less speed and no where near the ballskills in the air.

If Hankerson thinks they're gonna hand him the opportunities he's dead wrong. This offense doesn't have a ton of targets for the WRs, its not like the early years of Kyle's offense. Hankerson without a doubt has the skillset/talent but imo he's gonna have to step up his game and force the Kyle/Mike to play him. Garcon, Tana and Morgan are gonna bring it every practice and Hankerson has to get on their level.

Where I am coming from on Hankerson is i agree he should be given another chance this year. And overall, I like the idea of having 4-5 pass catchers without per se having that dominant #2 who gets more balls thrown his way. It's sort of like what Green Bay has done on and off for years. It makes it tougher for the opposition to game plan and also makes injuries less of a problem because there generally is a guy who can step up.

My concerns are when Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis are out, like we had for a stretch this year, when that happens there arguably isn't a guy on the roster who can stretch the field with consistency outside of Santana but they seem to want to limit Santana's reps. Depending on what they do with free agency, considering this is a deep draft for WR, I'd at least consider someone in the 2nd-4th round if they are the highest guy on the board. Having said that its far from my top concern, and i'd be perfectly fine if they go all defense 2nd-4th.

I wonder if they are considering more heavily TE -- its arguably a deep draft for that position. You got Paulsen who was averaging slightly over a 1 catch a game for the last 7 games, and had critical drops. Paul hasn't it seems adjusted to the position yet. And as Bruce Allen said recently, F. Davis is coming off a serious injury. Players can come back from similar Achilles injuries, most recently it was Suggs, but F. Davis arguably relies on his speed more than Suggs would.

[pjfootballer]

I think Badkarma said something about drafting 2 TEs. I don't think that will happen. They either re-sign Fred or go into free agency and pick one up (Casey or Keller). They will stick with Paulson and Paul for now and the coaches like DeAngelo Peterson, so at most, maybe 1 TE drafted.

I liked DogofWar1's post. I don't think it's a bad thing to add to an area of strength. People wanted to get rid of Cooley so fast and look what happened. Fred goes down and we have to bring him back. But with not knowing if Morgan will be re-signed plus Moss' age, I still think we need to get a WR in the draft. A guy we can develop and bring along. We have:

Garcon- signed

Morgan- last year under contract

Moss- will have to restructure, but should come back

Robinson- still under rookie deal

Hankerson- still under rookie deal

Briscoe- believe this is his last year under his contract and not a lock to make it

Hanks- WR spent the whole season on IR. Unknown.

I think we have to at least get another young WR in camp through the draft and if the FO doesn't like the safeties in the 2nd round, I wouldn't mind getting Williams.

[Warpath11]

I have nothing against drafting a WR provided he is our #1 rated player on our board at our particular pick (and there are no clear trade scenarios). I would like to see more explosive weapons around RGIII the premise is sound, again it comes down to our big board and how well the Skins scouting department preformed.

[PlayAction]

Darrelgreenie " This offense doesn't have a ton of targets for the WRs, its not like the early years of Kyle's offense. Hankerson without a doubt has the skillset/talent but imo he's gonna have to step up his game and force the Kyle/Mike to play him. Garcon, Tana and Morgan are gonna bring it every practice and Hankerson has to get on their level."

I wouldn't be surprised if Kyle continues to incorporate seemingly radical changes to his offense. The pistol read-option was so effective on first and second downs that it's hard to see why that would change until defenses can figure out how to stop it. But, I'm sure that Kyle is working hard to get RGIII up to speed with the elements of his earlier offense. Also, the read-option isn't effective with Cousins at the helm so I think the Skins need to have a WR group that can be effective with him at QB when necessary. I'm leery of one nagging toe injury for Garcon causing a huge drop-off in WR options. I'm not looking for the next Megatron just another decent WR.

Hey, I'll admit it. I want it all!

[MartinC]

But it appears the Shannys liked having a guy like Banks in the backfield. I mean, it was clearly his poor returning game that cost him his spot. Otherwise, he made a couple (only a couple but still) plays, and was an okay decoy if nothing else. So maybe we get a guy like that, but I don't see why Santana or Aldrick can't be that guy.

Banks did zero last year in the regular offense. He averaged 1.9 yards a catch on 8 catches - which takes some doing - and had 7 rushing attempts for 36 yards, 21 of which came on a single carry. You take that single play when he gained 21 yards away and his production was nothing short of terrible. His production as a returner was awful as well especially on punts with a 6.9 average and a long of 27 yards.

He is a free agent and I'd be very surprised if we make any attempt to bring him back.

[Rypien1191]

I don't disagree with what LL posted, but I still think we need another one, basically because of how we suffered when Garcon was hurt. Take him away, and you've got a bunch of guys who have been inconsistent, and a guy in Moss nearing the end of his career.

I'm for the idea of spreading the ball around - we don't need a CJ/Fitz/Andre but it can't hurt to have a bigger guy who can simply beat his man 1-on-1 physically on a 3rd and 8 or goal line jump ball without a pick/bump route.

Eventually, defenses are going to get better at defending our misdirection/motion/pick routes and having a guy who can just outmuscle his man for a ball is a good asset.

[cphil006]

I don't disagree with what LL posted, but I still think we need another one, basically because of how we suffered when Garcon was hurt. Take him away, and you've got a bunch of guys who have been inconsistent, and a guy in Moss nearing the end of his career.

I'm for the idea of spreading the ball around - we don't need a CJ/Fitz/Andre but it can't hurt to have a bigger guy who can simply beat his man 1-on-1 physically on a 3rd and 8 or goal line jump ball without a pick/bump route.

Eventually, defenses are going to get better at defending our misdirection/motion/pick routes and having a guy who can just outmuscle his man for a ball is a good asset.

Exactly. If Garcon goes down, we're doomed... It would be nice if we could get another Henry Ellard. A guy nearing the end of his career, so we can sign him for cheap, but he humbly produces ... and I digress...

[jerrymac2]

Exactly. If Garcon goes down, we're doomed... It would be nice if we could get another Henry Ellard. A guy nearing the end of his career, so we can sign him for cheap, but he humbly produces ... and I digress...

Hahaha Randy Moss will undoubtedly be available ........ While I do think we could use another receiver, I just can't see it in the cards, especially not until later in the draft....I think the skins need to sure up their secondary and O-Line as their top priorities. They may be able to find a free agent WR that they could get cheap but I can't see a way they can get anyone major in there unless the $18M cap penalty is reduced....but if they can get Davis back and perhaps even get some pass catch production coming from a healthy (gasp) Roy Helu while having similar production from their existing receivers I think they can contend....RG3 has a lot of targets, and a very imaginative scheme...they can definitely use their creativity to make up for missing pieces in their receiving corps

[MartinC]

They may be able to find a free agent WR that they could get cheap but I can't see a way they can get anyone major in there unless the $18M cap penalty is reduced....

This!

It would be great to add say a veterean like Greg Jennings or target someone like Bowe should he make it to the free agent market but its not going to happen. The cap is a zero sum equation - any cash we spend on adding another receiver in free agency takes away our ability to add upgrades at FS, CB and RT which are the 3 areas I think we will be targeting.

I actually think we have a good receiving group subject to health. But then just about any team is going to suffer if their top receiver and best receiving TE went down as happened to us last year. Garcon clearly elevates this unit and having him hopefully for a full year along with Fred Davis or a replacement for him if he signs somewhere else will do wonders. It will also be really interesting to see how Robinson develops with that full year under hos belt - he showed real promise as a guy who can take the top off a defense.

Bottom line with limited cap space and no first round pick there are other areas of the team that need attention over receiver.

[cphil006]

Hahaha Randy Moss will undoubtedly be available ........ While I do think we could use another receiver, I just can't see it in the cards, especially not until later in the draft....I think the skins need to sure up their secondary and O-Line as their top priorities. They may be able to find a free agent WR that they could get cheap but I can't see a way they can get anyone major in there unless the $18M cap penalty is reduced....but if they can get Davis back and perhaps even get some pass catch production coming from a healthy (gasp) Roy Helu while having similar production from their existing receivers I think they can contend....RG3 has a lot of targets, and a very imaginative scheme...they can definitely use their creativity to make up for missing pieces in their receiving corps

Randy Moss was a great WR, but I don't think he'd be as productive as Henry Ellard was when he was here... We need either another productive WR or one of our guys needs to step up which didn't happen last season... Hank has this year to prove himself... I understand he was coming off of hip surgery last season, but this offseason he really needs to get better or this may be his last season here.

[DogofWar1]

Hahaha Randy Moss will undoubtedly be available ........ While I do think we could use another receiver, I just can't see it in the cards, especially not until later in the draft....I think the skins need to sure up their secondary and O-Line as their top priorities. They may be able to find a free agent WR that they could get cheap but I can't see a way they can get anyone major in there unless the $18M cap penalty is reduced....but if they can get Davis back and perhaps even get some pass catch production coming from a healthy (gasp) Roy Helu while having similar production from their existing receivers I think they can contend....RG3 has a lot of targets, and a very imaginative scheme...they can definitely use their creativity to make up for missing pieces in their receiving corps

While I think there are ways to mask deficiencies in the receiving corp, I don't know how good our situation is for that. Last I heard on Helu is that he's not progressing great. And while I want Davis back, the contract talks seem to be not as positive as I'd hoped. In addition, Moss still has to be a "?" because of his age and contract, which means our slot WR spot is a "?". I do think we'll have addressed TE before the draft, but speedy receiving half back and slot WR might not get addressed prior to that.

And of course Morgan is in a contract year, so without an extension, that's another "?" unless we're okay with having minimal depth in 2014.

I do agree the secondary is a bigger concern, and I've been a proponent of adding an RT, but we shouldn't ignore WR either, and I think we have the resources to address that problem.

I think the best plan would be to:

- extend Morgan

- draft a slot receiver with a mid round pick (in the mid-rounds I'd go Swope. Senior, solid blocker, was willing to contribute on special teams at A&M, generally an all-around good guy very much in the Welker build)

- draft a receiving RB in the 4th or 5th. Mike Gillislee or Theo Riddick can fill that role pretty well I think.

We have two 5ths, and have signed a lot of draft picks over the past two years, so I wouldn't mind maneuvering for quality of picks over quantity and giving up one our 5ths, 6th, and 7th. Maybe try and get two 4ths, and go Swope/Gillislee. We can then use our 2nd and 3rd for the secondary or line, however the FO deems smartest.

If we went into 2013 with:

WRs Garcon, Morgan (extended), Hankerson, Robinson, Moss (on a cheaper contract), Swope (4th round);

TEs Davis (or Casey or Keller), Paulson, and Paul (and Peterson)

RBs/FBs Morris, Young, and Gillislee or Riddick (trade back into 4th or 5th rounder);

I would feel very VERY good about our offensive weapons for 2013 and beyond.