Solving the Great Bye-Week Mystery

[BleedBNG]

The difference was that the players decided to PAY ATTENTION to detail in class. They hated having twice as many losses than wins, and after the coaches told them that they were better players than that, they buckled down.

[thecardiacrll]

I think alot of the turnaround was the VETS voting RG3 Captain. He always has been a leader but knowing the vets voted for him I think made him take that extra step forward. Then the Philly game came and we dominated and you could see everyone on the team starting to believe and I think it made our defense start to get a little swagger. There were alot of factors really but i think that was a huge factor.

[Oldfan]

I don't know if I'd necessarily say better game planning, but I think it directly correlates to the amount we were willing to play man coverage. We played it more in the second half of the season and had better results. Even further in those games where we weren't in man we got abused (Ravens game Bolden's first TD). Our man coverage wasn't perfect, but it was better than our zone (ala the Rams game). And I think that directly correlated to our improvement on defense and thus our ability to win these games.

I hadn't noticed a difference man v. zone as the year progressed. Is this your own observation?

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

We were +10 in turnovers after the bye and the pass defense got marginally better. The end.

[Stadium-Armory]

Maybe our division sucks.

[skinnyskins]

I doubt there is just one factor, but a major one that comes to mind is the defense reducing the amount of big plays it gives up. Although we still give up big plays, it is at a rate much more comparable to the rest of the league. This has definitely helped move this defense from allowing 28 points per game over the first 9 to just 20 points per game over the past 7.

[Oldfan]

... Coming out of the bye week, Haslet made putting pressure on QB's a priority. Or Fletcher decided. And we thus became much less predictable, and much more difficult to game plan for...

Haslett may not be the brightest guy in the NFL, but I doubt that, after 25 years of coaching, he didn't realize that putting pressure on a QB is a top priority. The tough thing to figure out is how to do it without being burned too often.

---------- Post added January-3rd-2013 at 10:36 AM ----------

The difference was that the players decided to PAY ATTENTION to detail in class. They hated having twice as many losses than wins, and after the coaches told them that they were better players than that, they buckled down.

The players just needed to be motivated to try harder? Not very likely.

---------- Post added January-3rd-2013 at 10:37 AM ----------

We were +10 in turnovers after the bye and the pass defense got marginally better. The end.

Your turnover theory was considered and rejected earlier. Why did the defense get better? We are looking for causes.

---------- Post added January-3rd-2013 at 10:43 AM ----------

I doubt there is just one factor' date=' but a major one that comes to mind is the defense reducing the amount of big plays it gives up. Although we still give up big plays, it is at a rate much more comparable to the rest of the league. This has definitely helped move this defense from allowing 28 points per game over the first 9 to just 20 points per game over the past 7.[/quote'] Could you define what you mean by a big play and tell us how many we gave up during the first nine games v. the last seven? And, isn't it possible that the coaching edge v. division opponents explains the reduction?

[kleese]

So much of sports is "when". Our "when" was bad early in the year and got much better after the bye.

As an example, in the Ravens game, our defense was getting absolutely roasted in the first half. Luckily for us, our offense was keeping pace. Then, in the second half, our offense went into the dumpster for several consecutive drives... That's "when" the defense stepped up, got several stops, and forced two turnovers to buy time until the offense was able to mount that final drive.

In Cleveland and Philly, we were having trouble against the pass, but those two teams kept making mistakes and our offense was putting up enough points to offset it. Against the Giants, our offense only managed 17 points, but on that night the defense was superb in the second half.

Early in the year, our offense and defense were not in sync. Even against Cincy, when the D was getting roasted, they did get several stops to start the second half. Then, they forced a huge turnover and have the offense great field position when we had a chance to take the lead. But the offense sputtered on that possession and missed the opportunity.

After the bye, the defense has picked up the offense and vice versa.

[Oldfan]

Maybe our division sucks.

Our division was 31-33...mediocre.

[zoony]

We were +10 in turnovers after the bye and the pass defense got marginally better. The end.

While I mostly agree...

I do think that our offense improved quite a bit. Actually it's something that doesn't get written about much, here or anywhere. The simple fact that humans tend to improve the more they do something

It feels like after the bye our offense formed a real identity. Most don't remember, our offense was all over the place the first 8 weeks. Remember Brandon banks in the pistol? The repeated QB sneaks? Sometimes the offense looked like Denver's offense with Jake Plummer, sometimes it looked like Urban Myers Florida offense

I think the coaches went back and looked at a lot of tape from the first 8 weeks and really kind of figured out what it was they wanted to do on offense. That's when it seemed we really settled down into the pistol read option with PA on top of it

Going into these last 5 games I feel like we all kind of know what to expect now. The coaches have a feel for what works and the players have plenty of time in the scheme and know how to execute it.

Little things... Like blockers running right past cowboy defenders last week, knowing that said defender was already out of the play. That comes with lots of repetition.

[DeadExField]

The commentators week after week have taken notice of the confusing nature of the defense and their pre snap position. Some rush, and others drop back. You never know who is coming.

Overall, I think it comes down to execution, and not getting beat deep. Without below average safety play, I say we should 2 more wins

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

While I mostly agree...

I do think that our offense improved quite a bit. Actually it's something that doesn't get written about much, here or anywhere. The simple fact that humans tend to improve the more they do something

It feels like after the bye our offense formed a real identity. Most don't remember, our offense was all over the place the first 8 weeks. Remember Brandon banks in the pistol? The repeated QB sneaks? Sometimes the offense looked like Denver's offense with Jake Plummer, sometimes it looked like Urban Myers Florida offense

I think the coaches went back and looked at a lot of tape from the first 8 weeks and really kind of figured out what it was they wanted to do on offense. That's when it seemed we really settled down into the pistol read option with PA on top of it

Going into these last 5 games I feel like we all kind of know what to expect now. The coaches have a feel for what works and the players have plenty of time in the scheme and know how to execute it.

Little things... Like blockers running right past cowboy defenders last week, knowing that said defender was already out of the play. That comes with lots of repetition.

That's boring, but is probably right.

I alluded to this in the thread I posted yesterday but didn't say it. Our offense got a lot less gimmicky over the past few weeks - especially after the injury to RGIII. We were still running out of the same look, but it was basically an old-school Shanahan offense out of a pistol or shotgun look. And we got really really good at it. The first half of the season felt like the Shanahans were having too much fun playing with their new toys. The last half seemed like an offense that could control games - even if the passing numbers started to go down.

[Oldfan]

...I do think that our offense improved quite a bit. Actually it's something that doesn't get written about much, here or anywhere. The simple fact that humans tend to improve the more they do something.

So, is your theory then that, because of repetition, the Skins improved over the course of the year while their opponents did not?

[KyleVA]

I feel like the team, overall, has made great strides since the bye week.. But since Bobby G. got injured he doesn't seem like the same guy. If he was in good health I'd take us over Seattle but I feel like we're toast knowing that he's not one-hundred percent.

[zoony]

So, is your theory then that, because of repetition, the Skins improved over the course of the year while their opponents did not?

No.

[2cents]

So, is your theory then that, because of repetition, the Skins improved over the course of the year while their opponents did not?

Perhaps we just imroved more? We have more talent that makes our improvements mean more? That's my take to a certain degree. I think we have a decent amount of talent and it is all finally starting to come together.

[Tyron Biggums]

When they are available, I prefer simple, mundane football explanations -- coaching or playing. So, I don't have much use for factors that may or may not exist like momentum, leadership, attitude changes or the like.

Confidence.. The NFL is almost complete parity. IMO That one word can seperate a team from the rest of the field. Example NY Giants last season.

HTTR

[Btubes18]

I think the overall team got a wakeup call during the bye week, they are all playing as a unit, especially the defense. Also, Garcon being healthy for an entire game is directly correlated with the Skins winning 7 straight. With him on the field he makes a major impact on offense that we did not have during most of our 3 - 6 stretch.

[Oldfan]

Confidence.. The NFL is almost complete parity. IMO That one word can seperate a team from the rest of the field. Example NY Giants last season.

HTTR

Causes happen before effects. Confidence is an effect of success, not a cause. You have to succeed before you gain confidence.

---------- Post added January-3rd-2013 at 11:08 AM ----------

I think the overall team got a wakeup call during the bye week, they are all playing as a unit, especially the defense. Also, Garcon being healthy for an entire game is directly correlated with the Skins winning 7 straight. With him on the field he makes a major impact on offense that we did not have during most of our 3 - 6 stretch.

Garcon was a factor, but a minor one. Our defense picked up its game more than the offense.

[RandyHolt]

Haslett may not be the brightest guy in the NFL, but I doubt that, after 25 years of coaching, he didn't realize that putting pressure on a QB is a top priority. The tough thing to figure out is how to do it without being burned too often.

...

It was not a priority to him, or Mike.

After losing Rak, our pass rush instantly became feeble. And I don't recall any significant attempts to change that.

I didn't see any stunts. I didn't see Kerrigan moved around. I didn't see blitzes, outside of the occasional but predictable delayed blitz from our ILB's. Maybe he thought Jackson was about to break through, give it time.

Haslet clearly didn't care to try to manufacture a pass rush, and I speculate that he may have been instructed to not do so. As you say, a DC knows pressure is needed, especially with a suspect secondary. But i am flat out, out of excuses try to explain his game plans from weeks ~3-9.

Maybe he was sandbagging, saving it all for later in the year.

[Oldfan]

Perhaps we just imroved more? We have more talent that makes our improvements mean more? That's my take to a certain degree. I think we have a decent amount of talent and it is all finally starting to come together.

Why is it finally starting to come together? Our main cog at QB didn't improve. RG3 didn't finish the Ravens game, didn't play in Cleveland, and has been playing below his potential with a gimpy knee in this seven game win stretch.

---------- Post added January-3rd-2013 at 11:25 AM ----------

...After losing Rak, our pass rush instantly became feeble. And I don't recall any significant attempts to change that...

I agree that there was lag time after losing Rak and Carriker. I don't know whether to blame Haz for that, if their replacements just took some time to learn, or both.

I'm thinking of that as a minor factor, though.

[2cents]

Why is it finally starting to come together? Our main cog at QB didn't improve. RG3 didn't finish the Ravens game, didn't play in Cleveland, and has been playing below his potential with a gimpy knee in this seven game win stretch.

My eyes tell me somewhat improved safety play and increased D-line pressure leading to less big plays given up. Big plays were killing us before the bye, and the number has decreased.

And just because RGIII hasn't necessarily improved greatly, he hasn't gotten worse and that combined with overall improvement elsewhere still equals an overall net improvement.

[2STaylor1]

i think we had more success in our Division because i believe you have to build your roster to compete in your division first.

[ArmchairRedskin]

I started watching the games from a different chair.

[Oldfan]

My eyes tell me somewhat improved safety play and increased D-line pressure leading to less big plays given up. Big plays were killing us before the bye, and the number has decreased...

If I'm right that our game planning on both sides of the ball were better against our five divisional opponents, that would cause the defensive improvements that you list and more.