Who should win the 2012 AL MVP award?

[Sticksboi05]

1) Why wouldn't you count his last three games, especially if you are going to argue that the end of the year is more important?

2) Are you sure that is it? Because that seems like a big difference for three games worth of data.

Where are you getting your numbers?

And it is right, he went 33 of 114 if you add in October. He was 7/13 in three October games and that boosts the **** out of his batting average for the two months, except the sample size is much larger in September. Plus they were already eliminated by those October games if I remember correctly so the pressure was already off Trout.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

And it is right, he went 33 of 114 if you add in October. He was 7/13 in three October games and that boosts the **** out of his batting average for the two months, except the sample size is much larger in September. Plus they were already eliminated by those October games if I remember correctly so the pressure was already off Trout.

Assuming that's all correct... that is some serious cherry picking of stats.

I have spouted off long enough in here... but basically this comes down to Cabrera having more HR's and RBI's and Trout being better at everything else a baseball player can do. And for some reason, people are backing HR's and RBI's.

[Sticksboi05]

Assuming that's all correct... that is some serious cherry picking of stats.

I have spouted off long enough in here... but basically this comes down to Cabrera having more HR's and RBI's and Trout being better at everything else a baseball can do. And for some reason, people are backing HR's and RBI's.

...

My argument was, Cabrera performed better "down the stretch". I gave numbers that suggest that offensively that is true. The disparity in their numbers down the stretch is huge. Down the stretch = August and September does it not? The point of said argument was that when the pressure was on, Trout slumped severely. So, if they were already eliminated by October, the pressure is off and those games have no say to be used in this argument. That's not cherry picking to find the absolute worst stats. If the Angels were still in contention for those three games I'd absolutely add them in but they weren't (I don't think anyway). Down the stretch Trout had a big slump, that is undeniable. The Angels still won games when he sucked, that is fact, they were what 7 games over .500% in September. So Trout was not the big factor in their playoff push at the end of the year. Cabrera was red-hot and the Tigers still were mediocre down the stretch.

Anyway, this thread has gone 7 pages so there's not much more to say and at the end of the day who cares who wins?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

...

My argument was, Cabrera performed better "down the stretch". I gave numbers that suggest that offensively that is true. The disparity in their numbers down the stretch is huge. Down the stretch = August and September does it not? The point of said argument was that when the pressure was on, Trout slumped severely. So, if they were already eliminated by October, the pressure is off and those games have no say to be used in this argument. That's not cherry picking to find the absolute worst stats. If the Angels were still in contention for those three games I'd absolutely add them in but they weren't (I don't think anyway). Down the stretch Trout had a big slump, that is undeniable. The Angels still won games when he sucked, that is fact, they were what 7 games over .500% in September. So Trout was not the big factor in their playoff push at the end of the year. Cabrera was red-hot and the Tigers still were mediocre down the stretch.

Anyway, this thread has gone 7 pages so there's not much more to say and at the end of the day who cares who wins?

First, I agree its gone on long enough.

Second, I don't think Trout slumped down the stretch. I think that's a bit unfair. He was stellar in August, and he was pretty darn good over the last two weeks of the season. Basically, it appears to me he had a bad two week period in early September, and that is not worth much to me.

It is not undeniable though. Its totally deniable. Over the last 14 days of the season, Trout had the third best WAR in all of baseball: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=2&season1=2012&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

Just look at that. Miggy is not even in the top 30. So for the last two weeks he was on fire. Absolutely on fire. And you're basically saying he had a really bad first two week of September so he can't be the MVP?

He didn't crumble, like you're saying. Also, .257 average (for a very specific period of time that I think is misleading) is nothing spectacular, but 1) its not like he hit below .200, and 2) average is not the most important stat either.

I dont see a single good reason that Cabrera was more valuable than Trout. Everyone can have their opinion, but I don't see it based in anything that makes sense.

[Sticksboi05]

First, I agree its gone on long enough.

Second, I don't think Trout slumped down the stretch. I think that's a bit unfair. He was stellar in August

I hate continuing this but the dude slumped, even mcqueen won't refute that. Again, relative to his standard of dominance, he didn't play terribly he just cooled off, alot. He had a scorching July which is when the hype machine exploded and then August and September he cooled off, alot. He was still good but offensively not near as good as Cabrera down the playoff run stretch. Again, my comparison was strictly offensively, he'll always win in WAR but I'm not arguing he's not a vastly superior defender/runner to Cabrera just that Cabrera will probably win because he was red hot when the Tigers needed him to be. And it's not that misleading, it's not like he had three 0-7 games that are just weighing him down. He cooled off, it happens, no way he was keeping up his July pace.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

I hate continuing this but the dude slumped, even mcqueen won't refute that. Again, relative to his standard of dominance, he didn't play terribly he just cooled off, alot. He had a scorching July which is when the hype machine exploded and then August and September he cooled off, alot. He was still good but offensively not near as good as Cabrera down the playoff run stretch. Again, my comparison was strictly offensively, he'll always win in WAR but I'm not arguing he's not a vastly superior defender/runner to Cabrera just that Cabrera will probably win because he was red hot when the Tigers needed him to be. And it's not that misleading, it's not like he had three 0-7 games that are just weighing him down. He cooled off, it happens, no way he was keeping up his July pace.

He was on fire for the last two weeks of the season.

I'm sorry, I feel like you're cherry picking what I'm saying too.

Let me ask you this, what is the exact time frame, date to date of his slump?

And I guess I will never understand why you just set aside his vastly superior defense.

[Sticksboi05]

He was on fire for the last two weeks of the season.

I'm sorry, I feel like you're cherry picking what I'm saying too.

Let me ask you this, what is the exact time frame, date to date of his slump?

And I guess I will never understand why you just set aside his vastly superior defense.

Here are his total stats affected game by game, Sep 15-30, the last two weeks before they were out of playoff contention (again, for the sake of my "pressure on/off" argument)

OBP SLG OPS AVG

.397 .565 .962 .331

.396 .562 .958 .329

.396 .558 .954 .327

.395 .556 .951 .327

.392 .551 .943 .324

.395 .560 .955 .326

.395 .558 .953 .325

.394 .554 .948 .323

.395 .554 .949 .324

.395 .551 .946 .323

.393 .547 .940 .320

.393 .555 .948 .321

.395 .560 .955 .322

.395 .557 .952 .321

How was he on fire, in that time all of his offensive stats dropped...

He did have a good last five games but half at least were played when the Angels season was already over so for the sake of what I'm arguing it doesn't matter.

I'm not ignoring Trout is better defensively. I already said he's a better all-around player earlier. I'm just saying, the voters love what they perceive to be clutch performance and Cabrera's performance down the stretch might boost him to the award that's all. I'm arguing one point, just that down the stretch Cabrera was a much more dominant hitter and that's complete fact. I'm just giving a reason why Trout may lose.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

Here are his total stats affected game by game, Sep 15-30, the last two weeks before they were out of playoff contention (again, for the sake of my "pressure on/off" argument)

OBP SLG OPS AVG

.397 .565 .962 .331

.396 .562 .958 .329

.396 .558 .954 .327

.395 .556 .951 .327

.392 .551 .943 .324

.395 .560 .955 .326

.395 .558 .953 .325

.394 .554 .948 .323

.395 .554 .949 .324

.395 .551 .946 .323

.393 .547 .940 .320

.393 .555 .948 .321

.395 .560 .955 .322

.395 .557 .952 .321

How was he on fire, in that time all of his offensive stats dropped...

He did have a good last five games but half at least were played when the Angels season was already over so for the sake of what I'm arguing it doesn't matter.

I'm not ignoring Trout is better defensively. I already said he's a better all-around player earlier. I'm just saying, the voters love what they perceive to be clutch performance and Cabrera's performance down the stretch might boost him to the award that's all. I'm arguing one point, just that down the stretch Cabrera was a much more dominant hitter and that's complete fact. I'm just giving a reason why Trout may lose.

We're just going back and forth now. I posted his last one week and his last two week stat lines. They were excellent. He didn't slump the last two weeks of the season.

Last one week: .379/.471/.793 slash line. 2 HR, 2SB, 5 Runs, etc. Great numbers over the last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=1&season1=2012&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

And no, they were not eliminated for all of those games.

Last two weeks: .313/.441/.646 slash line. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=2&season1=2012&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

I'm starting to wonder if he had one bad week in September that you are saying cost him the MVP.

[Sticksboi05]

We're just going back and forth now. I posted his last one week and his last two week stat lines. They were excellent. He didn't slump the last two weeks of the season.

Last one week: .379/.471/.793 slash line. 2 HR, 2SB, 5 Runs, etc. Great numbers over the last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=1&season1=2012&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

And no, they were not eliminated for all of those games.

Last two weeks: .313/.441/.646 slash line. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=2&season1=2012&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

I'm starting to wonder if he had one bad week in September that you are saying cost him the MVP.

No, you're just not seeing my point. You're arguing he had a good two weeks. Yes, that's a great line, however, my point is, relative to how he HAD been producing it was a slump. all his numbers dropped, that indicates a slump. It's like OV's 30-50-80 season. Fantastic numbers, but he still slumped because you expect 50-50-100. That shows how good Trout is that a slump for him is still a fantastic stat line. Again, he didn't play poorly, he just slowed down, a lot. But I mean in July he was on uncontrollably hot pace so it's not surprising.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

No, you're just not seeing my point. You're arguing he had a good two weeks. Yes, that's a great line, however, my point is, relative to how he HAD been producing it was a slump. all his numbers dropped, that indicates a slump. It's like OV's 30-50-80 season. Fantastic numbers, but he still slumped because you expect 50-50-100. That shows how good Trout is that a slump for him is still a fantastic stat line. Again, he didn't play poorly, he just slowed down, a lot. But I mean in July he was on uncontrollably hot pace so it's not surprising.

Well, I don't think that's a very good point. He had a great line but it wasn't as great as the rest of his season?

Nate Silver is a witch and he agrees with me: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/the-statistical-case-against-cabrera-for-m-v-p/?ref=sports

I win.

[Sticksboi05]

Well, I don't think that's a very good point. He had a great line but it wasn't as great as the rest of his season?

Nate Silver is a witch and he agrees with me: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/the-statistical-case-against-cabrera-for-m-v-p/?ref=sports

I win.

He hit .208 the second half of September. His OPS in that time was like .800. The first half of the month certainly wasn't much better. That's a slump. What do you call a slump? His numbers were also down in August.

[skinfan2k]

Miggy. For someone to do that when you know he is the team's best hitter is great.

[Predicto]

Aren't there something like 10 different ways to calculate WAR (so you can pretty much get to whatever result you want)? :whoknows:

[Heidenreich]

My issue with WAR, is that its not 100% subjective. If they played the same postion, then yes, but the baseline stats for a replacement outfielder and a replacement third baseman are very different.

Trout gets a major bump in WAR with his amazing speed and defense. Everybody knows Cabrera is a butcher, and just converted back to third base. Everybdoy leaves this out though, so they can just tout how great Trouts WAR was. I'm actually more impressed that Cabrera ONLY had 13 errors this season. When you consider that he had 23 in his prior season at third base, which was FIVE YEARS AGO.

Case in point, the following players had better WAR's this season than Miguel Cabrera.

Mike Trout

Buster Posey

Ryan Braun

Robinson Cano

CHASE HEADLEY

Andrew McCutchen

Chase Headley? Seriously? I thnk that says all I need to say about WAR.......

[AsiaticSkinsFan]

My issue with WAR, is that its not 100% subjective. If they played the same postion, then yes, but the baseline stats for a replacement outfielder and a replacement third baseman are very different.

Trout gets a major bump in WAR with his amazing speed and defense. Everybody knows Cabrera is a butcher, and just converted back to third base. Everybdoy leaves this out though, so they can just tout how great Trouts WAR was. I'm actually more impressed that Cabrera ONLY had 13 errors this season. When you consider that he had 23 in his prior season at third base, which was FIVE YEARS AGO.

Case in point, the following players had better WAR's this season than Miguel Cabrera.

Mike Trout

Buster Posey

Ryan Braun

Robinson Cano

CHASE HEADLEY

Andrew McCutchen

Chase Headley? Seriously? I thnk that says all I need to say about WAR.......

how can you dismiss Trout's superior defending because he is a better athlete?

Here is the fact, Trout = best defensive center fielder in the AL

Cabrera = mediocre to poor defensive 3rd basemen in the AL

---------- Post added November-15th-2012 at 05:30 PM ----------

I mean you are saying we should reward Cabrera for not being an abomination at 3rd base

[Heidenreich]

I am saying that Trout's WAR is inflated due to his defense.

The same way the SABR crew tries to dimiish RBIs, I'm trying to diminish defense. (Both sides of this argument are flawed. 100%)

Case in point, Trout's UZR (whatever the **** that is, but this website does say it's a defensive metric) is a 11.4. On contrast, Cabrera's is a -10. That 21.4 point swing factors in very much to Trout's advantage in WAR.

[ixcuincle]

Miguel won and rightfully so

[Forehead]

I'm going to give Sticks a two point win...one point for backing the winner, and the other for not coming off like a complete dick while arguing his point.

[CrypticVillain]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2012/11/15/miguel-cabrera-american-league-mvp-mike-trout/1707407/

Part of the dilemma is the definition of Most Valuable Player, an interpretation that differs among voters.

If the award was clearly for best player, Trout's argument is that much stronger, especially with all the defensive and baserunning metrics available that show his clear advantage over Cabrera in those areas.

But the "valuable" factor always sways these discussions, allowing for extra credit to players who helped their teams reach the postseason, or for contemplating how significant the player was to what the team achieved.

Cabrera's Tigers made the playoffs – got to the World Series as it turned out, through the voting is completed before the postseason – while Trout's Angels did not. Yet, the Angels had one more victory that Detroit.

The "most valuable" element even crosses into the sabermetric methods that have been at the core of the pro-Trout argument.

Trout's Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the overall measure of quality that includes all aspects of the game, was 10 this year, the best in the majors, according to Fangraphs.com. Cabrera's WAR was 7.1. The Angels' total team WAR, encompassing all players, was 37.4. Detroit's was 21.1.

So, Cabrera contributed 33.6% of his team's total value, Trout 26.7%.

To me, in any sport it all boils down to championships. So heck year I am going to punish Trout for his team not getting in. Yes, he was the best player in the majors this year, but that wasn't good enough to get his team in position to play for a championship. Especially win the race is this close.

If the Angels made the playoffs and the Tigers didn't, I would say that the votes would be flipped into Trout's favor.

[sportjunkie07]

If the Angels made the playoffs and the Tigers didn't, I would say that the votes would be flipped into Trout's favor.

i dont think so. when cabrera won the triple crown he was a lock to get the mvp.

the triple crown is a collection of stats, nothing more. winning it means you were obviously balling and should be at least in mvp discussion, but it in no way guarantees you were the best player that year. you could take 3 random stats like runs, batting average, and home runs and call that the triple crown if you wanted too. leading them all in one year is luck based.

the best argument i see for cabrera is that his team made the playoffs and trout's didnt. but even that argument isn't solid, because it's a team effort.

the way i see it both were really good offensively and though i'd probably favor trout's output, i'm ok with calling it a push.

defensive contribution is another thing entirely. trout clobbers cabrera in that regard.

so for me the mvp would have gone to trout.

[Predicto]

Trout's Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the overall measure of quality that includes all aspects of the game, was 10 this year, the best in the majors, according to Fangraphs.com. Cabrera's WAR was 7.1. The Angels' total team WAR, encompassing all players, was 37.4. Detroit's was 21.1.

So, Cabrera contributed 33.6% of his team's total value, Trout 26.7%.

This is what I mean about WAR being an easily manipulated stat.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

My issue with WAR, is that its not 100% subjective. If they played the same postion, then yes, but the baseline stats for a replacement outfielder and a replacement third baseman are very different.

Trout gets a major bump in WAR with his amazing speed and defense. Everybody knows Cabrera is a butcher, and just converted back to third base. Everybdoy leaves this out though, so they can just tout how great Trouts WAR was. I'm actually more impressed that Cabrera ONLY had 13 errors this season. When you consider that he had 23 in his prior season at third base, which was FIVE YEARS AGO.

Case in point, the following players had better WAR's this season than Miguel Cabrera.

Mike Trout

Buster Posey

Ryan Braun

Robinson Cano

CHASE HEADLEY

Andrew McCutchen

Chase Headley? Seriously? I thnk that says all I need to say about WAR.......

I don't get this. Hadley hits 30 omers in a pitchers park and plays great D so the Fact that WAR calls him valuable is a mistake?

RBIs are worthless. I suggest the book Moneyball for starters.

Also predicto, 2 ways to compute WAR. But, they both do different things. It's not a perfect stat either way, but it's very useful.

Also, I guess I get one point for Picking Cabrera to win, but "coming off as a dick.". Actually, I thought sticks and I had a good conversation until a certain poster came along.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

My issue with WAR, is that its not 100% subjective. If they played the same postion, then yes, but the baseline stats for a replacement outfielder and a replacement third baseman are very different.

Trout gets a major bump in WAR with his amazing speed and defense. Everybody knows Cabrera is a butcher, and just converted back to third base. Everybdoy leaves this out though, so they can just tout how great Trouts WAR was. I'm actually more impressed that Cabrera ONLY had 13 errors this season. When you consider that he had 23 in his prior season at third base, which was FIVE YEARS AGO.

Case in point, the following players had better WAR's this season than Miguel Cabrera.

Mike Trout

Buster Posey

Ryan Braun

Robinson Cano

CHASE HEADLEY

Andrew McCutchen

Chase Headley? Seriously? I thnk that says all I need to say about WAR.......

I don't get this. Hadley hits 30 omers in a pitchers park and plays great D so the Fact that WAR calls him valuable is a mistake?

RBIs are worthless. I suggest the book Moneyball for starters.

Also predicto, 2 ways to compute WAR. But, they both do different things. It's not a perfect stat either way, but it's very useful.

Also, I guess I get one point for Picking Cabrera to win, but "coming off as a dick.". Actually, I thought sticks and I had a good conversation until a certain poster came along.

[Sticksboi05]

I don't get this. Hadley hits 30 omers in a pitchers park and plays great D so the Fact that WAR calls him valuable is a mistake?

RBIs are worthless. I suggest the book Moneyball for starters.

Also predicto, 2 ways to compute WAR. But, they both do different things. It's not a perfect stat either way, but it's very useful.

Also, I guess I get one point for Picking Cabrera to win, but "coming off as a dick.". Actually, I thought sticks and I had a good conversation until a certain poster came along.

That was one of the best debates I've had on ES. All facts, no name-calling, call tempers.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

That was one of the best debates I've had on ES. All facts, no name-calling, call tempers.

And agreed!