ESPN: NFL's most underrated/overrated (DeAngelo Hall put in overrated)

[skinsrbeast]

Plenty of words have been wasted on the dichotomy between stats and scouting.

Stats and scouting work best when used in concert, but one distinction between the two is that scouts are primarily concerned with skills, and statisticians are primarily concerned with production.

There are great athletes who don't necessarily help their teams win a lot of football games, and there are players who have limited skills but have applied those skills so well that they've produced a lot of offense (or stopped a lot of opponent offense).

Now that Scouts Inc. has unveiled its scouting grades for everyone in the NFL for 2011, we thought it would be interesting to go through and identify those players whose production -- as judged by stats -- hasn't quite matched their skills according to the scouting reports.

Underrated

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England Patriots

Per Scouts Inc. grades, Green-Ellis ranks 44th among running backs. The Football Outsiders stats, on the other hand, ranked Green-Ellis second in DVOA (value per play) in 2010 and third in DYAR (total value) behind only Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster.

Yes, a lot of that is due to the offense Green-Ellis plays in, which causes opposing defenses to constantly play back on their heels, expecting the pass.

Still, there's something to be said for good instincts, good vision and the drive to push forward on every run, even after you hit a defender.

Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants

Jacobs comes out with a scouting grade of 74, which ranks 32nd among running backs. However, last year Jacobs ranked third in DVOA and seventh in DYAR.

Jacobs was terrible in 2009, when he had knee injuries and the Giants' offensive line struggled in run blocking.

Other than that one year, though, he's been fabulous, ranking third or fourth in DVOA in 2007, 2008 and 2010. (He was just as good in 2006, although he didn't have enough carries to be ranked.) He rarely loses yardage on a run, and of course he is excellent in short-yardage situations.

Houston Texans' Offensive Line

Eric Winston, at 188, is the only Houston lineman ranked in Scouts Inc.'s top 200. Center Chris Myers, ninth, is the only lineman ranked in his position's top 10. Left tackle Duane Brown is ranked 28th among offensive tackles, and none of Houston's guards have a scouting grade higher than 68 (Wade Smith).

Yet the Texans have one of the better offensive lines in the league right now.

Last year, the Texans ranked fourth in our adjusted line yards stats, which measure line blocking by looking at the first 10 yards of each run. They also ranked 12th in adjusted sack rate and 10th in converting short-yardage situations.

Overrated

Vontae Davis, Miami Dolphins

Scouts Inc. grades have Davis as one of the top 10 cornerbacks in the league. That may be true when it comes to raw talent, but like a lot of young cornerbacks, Davis' early performance hasn't quite reflected that talent level.

According to Football Outsiders game charting, Davis ranked 61st in adjusted yards per pass allowed last year, and 71st in adjusted success rate in coverage.

He also had nine broken tackles, which is a lot for a cornerback.

DeAngelo Hall, Washington Redskins

Hall is a great example of why athletic talent and winning football games are two different things.

He ranks 16th among cornerbacks in Scouts Inc.'s grades, and they say he had his most productive season in 2010. And it was his most productive year -- if only interceptions matter.

But he consistently allows catches in front of him and gets burned deep, not just by stars but by guys like Arrelious Benn and Jason Hill. Our game charting recorded him with 10.0 adjusted yards per pass and a 41 percent adjusted success rate; both rank 81st among 89 cornerbacks.

Even his interceptions weren't as impressive as they seem at first. He had four against Chicago, but only two in the other 15 games, and one of those was on a Hail Mary pass.

Brandon Marshall, Dolphins

Marshall comes out ninth among wide receivers in the Scouts Inc. rankings. He puts up big standard numbers with lots of yards and touchdowns.

But that's because he's always been the focal point of his team's offense, both in Denver and last year in Miami.

He ranked just 34th in DYAR last year and has never ranked higher than 24th. Sure, some of that has to do with all the attention he gets from opposing defenses, but Marshall's advanced stats just don't match those of the wide receivers with higher Scouts Inc. grades, such as Hakeem Nicks (10th in Scouts Inc. rankings, sixth in 2010 DYAR) and Mike Wallace (eighth in Scouts Inc. rankings, first in 2010 DYAR).

Didn't see this posted and I know a lot of you guys don't have ESPN Insider so here is the article and here is the link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6897786/nfl-most-overrated-underrated-players-nfl

[rookieskin]

Haters gonna Hate.

[trimee]

He's a GAME CHANGER! Period. Just ask Dallas.

[Skinzfever2010]

Its true. Allot of his talk about it from time to time. He can't cover a lick and he takes to many risks.

[Boston Skins]

It's the good with the bad with DHall. I'm willing to bet that Hall has contributed more to games won for the Skins over the past 2 years than Carlos Rogers did for 5. There's at least two last year that proves that notion.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

D hall gets burned? check

D hall gambles a lot? check

D hall makes game changing plays? check

D hall scores defensive TDs? check

hall is a gambler, hes gonna lose some gambles, hes gonna win. we run a defense built for getting turnovers, thats just the way it is. id rather have the guy getting the pick 6 and allowing some big plays. D hall single handedly won 2 of our 6 games last year lol.

[tiger187126]

Hall is a great example of why athletic talent and winning football games are two different things.

he won TWO games last year basically by himself. i don't know how many corners did that.

sure he takes risks and gets beat, but corners who have a lot of interceptions do. guys like namdi just stick their man all the way down the field and don't put themselves in position to intercept.

it's a lot of zone vs. man.

[AKM311]

He would be a better FS if he was bigger.

[terrifNick21]

Hall is overrated. That doesn't mean he's not good; it just means he's not as good as some make him out to be.

[illone]

Overrated by whom, a few talking schmoes at ESPN?

Who cares?

:whoknows:

Hall is a playmaker. You can't argue with the fact that he jumps some routes and takes some risks but that's what you get. Asante Samuel is a similar type of player and he isn't on this list, why?

[Ever202Reyes]

D hall gets burned? check

D hall gambles a lot? check

D hall makes game changing plays? check

D hall scores defensive TDs? check

hall is a gambler, hes gonna lose some gambles, hes gonna win. we run a defense built for getting turnovers, thats just the way it is. id rather have the guy getting the pick 6 and allowing some big plays. D hall single handedly won 2 of our 6 games last year lol.

100% Agree. I hope he retires a Skin.

[Going Commando]

It's the good with the bad with DHall. I'm willing to bet that Hall has contributed more to games won for the Skins over the past 2 years than Carlos Rogers did for 5. There's at least two last year that proves that notion.

Yeah what a ridiculous thing for ESPN to claim -- Hall's skills don't translate into winning games!? LOL!

He's probably the ONLY CB in the league last year who you can point to near single-handedly winning two games.

Deangelo Hall is hugely productive. He makes tons of plays in the running game, he forces and recovers fumbles and catches interceptions, and he scores touchdowns.

And he's a fiery leader on the sidelines and in the locker room.

That's why he's a great, Probowl caliber player. The fact that ESPN has him on the overrated list here means he's actually underrated.

[tiger187126]

Hall is overrated. That doesn't mean he's not good; it just means he's not as good as some make him out to be.

it's how the article is written though. basically they're ranking players with numerical values, i.e. madden rankings, and then comparing that to what happened last year. so a guy with a good rating on a bad team is going to be overrated and a decent guy on a good team is going to be underrated.

[skin23]

Unfortunately for our team, this assessment of D-Hall's coverage ability is spot on.

[Laxpunk2006]

Hall is overrated. That doesn't mean he's not good; it just means he's not as good as some make him out to be.

This pretty much sums it up.

[Riggo#44]

Hall is overrated. That doesn't mean he's not good; it just means he's not as good as some make him out to be.

Most people know what Hall is: boom or bust. So how can he be overrated?

[Going Commando]

Troy Polamalu is a ball hawking defensive back who sells out to make plays all of the time and gets burned. He's had two Superbowls in the past three years where he's basically ranged from invisible to liability.

And yet ESPN will continuously tout him as the greatest safety alive. That's the definition of an overrated player.

DHall catches a lot of crap for his style of play when others don't because he's on the Redskins and we've lost a lot of games.

[Boston Skins]

ESPN also picks the Cowboys or the previous champion to win the next Super Bowl every year, so I take ESPN with a grain of salt. Everything ends up getting settled on the field.

[justice98]

I'm tired of hearing how deficient he is in this area or that area, he's the only guy on the defense really that will change a game by making a play(s). Maybe if they can get to the QB a little more, it'll make him more effective in coverage. Pressure on the QB hasn't been this team's forte the last few years.

[DJD2]

ESPN = joke

Why does anybody even listen to the tripe they put out.

[skin23]

or change a game by giving up a play e.g. lee evans TD. I hear what you're saying, but it's maddening to people for a CB to give a 10 yard cushion on a 3rd down and 8 comeback, or like boldin's easy 3rd down conversion on 3rd and 14..just maddening polar opposites

[justice98]

I will say one thing, he doesn't seem as fast as I recall him being when he came out. He was supposed to have had 4.3 speed or some such thing. Or maybe it's just how he runs, but he looks like he's running flat footed. Looks weird to me.

[2STaylor1]

im pretty sure this is something weve all known..... he gives up plays but also changes games for us..... with out really doing the research, im gonna off the top say he won us 2 games last year and cant really think of any he "lost" us....

[Boss_Hogg]

Hall is a ball-hawk, just like Assante Samuel.

I like ball-hawks, they can change the pulse of a game.

[Going Commando]

Hall is a ball-hawk, just like Assante Samuel.

I like ball-hawks, they can change the pulse of a game.

That's a good point.

People like to talk about DeSean Jackson being a great or overrated receiver, but all of the players know he's dangerous and what he can do.

My point is that big plays put new life in your team. I'm not a fan of relying entirely on big plays on offense like the Eagles do. But on defense it's different--big plays are even more valuable IMO. It keeps your defenders off the field (always a good thing), fires up your entire sideline, and steals scoring opportunities right away from an offense building confidence with every first down. And then few things are as back breaking as throwing a pick 6.