The 2011 Draft: Middle to Late round QBs

[jefeweiss]

Geez, it's going to be a huge challenge, given the history of failed late rounders so no one should expect an absolute "hit" on a QB of the future. However, in the absence of talent separation, I would seek someone with great football work ethic and IQ traits. That would be Dalton IMHO. He's got those intangibles. Note - we are going to need to acquire a 3rd or 4th.

2009

ROUND 4: Stephen McGee, Cowboys (101)

ROUND 5: Rhett Bomar, Giants (151); Nate Davis, 49ers (171)

ROUND 6: Tom Brandstater, Broncos (174); Mike Teel, Seahawks (178); Keith Null, Rams (196); Curtis Painter, Colts (201)

2008

ROUND 5: John David Booty, Vikings (137); Dennis Dixon, Steelers (156); Josh Johnson, Buccaneers (160); Erik Ainge, Jets (162)

ROUND 6: Colt Brennan, Redskins (198); Andre Woodson, Giants (198)

ROUND 7: Matt Flynn, Packers (209); Alex Brink, Texans (223)

2007

ROUND 5: Jeff Rowe, Bengals (151); Troy Smith, Ravens (174)

ROUND 6: Jordan Palmer, Redskins (205)

ROUND 7: Tyler Thigpen, Vikings (217)

2006

ROUND 5: Ingle Martin, Packers (148); Omar Jacobs, Steelers (164)

ROUND 6: Bruce Gradkowski, Buccaneers (194)

ROUND 7: D.J. Shockley, Falcons (223)

2005

ROUND 4: Kyle Orton, Bears (106); Stefan LeFors, Panthers (121)

ROUND 5: Dan Orlovsky, Lions (145); Adrian McPherson, Saints (152)

ROUND 6: Derek Anderson, Ravens (213)

ROUND 7: Matt Cassel, Patriots (230); Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rams (250)

I would take it as a given that there's a Tom Brady in every draft, in fact, I would say that it's possible that the best NFL quarterback is often never given a chance in the NFL. It's pretty easy to dig up a list of quarterbacks drafted in the past ten years, and to say that this proves that quarterbacks chosen later in the draft can't be successful. The problem is that a lot of the quarterbacks taken in the later rounds never play a single down.

If a QB is drafted in the first two rounds, they are seldom cut in the first two or three years of their contract. A majority of quarterbacks taken in rounds 5 though 7 are lucky to get two years in the league and almost all of them will never start a game. The reason that Tom Brady was successful is that Drew Bledsoe was injured right at the beginning of Tom Brady's second season. In 2001 Drew Bledsoe had just signed a record contract. If Drew Bledsoe finishes out that season, it's entirely possible that Tom Brady would be selling cars today.

I think that the way that most scouts in the NFL evaluate talent at the quarterback position is pretty laughable. A good majority of NCAA D1 quarterbacks have the physical skills required to play quarterback in the NFL but almost all of them are missing the essential piece between the ears. Joe Montana was, physically speaking, not a very good quarterback. His arm strength was fair to poor. That was one of the reasons that Bill Walsh put in the West Coast offense, which was mostly short throws. Joe Montana was outstanding at making quick and correct decisions.

Nevertheless you don't usually see draft analysis that talks about quick and correct decision making, you see arm strength. It's just a lot easier to measure. I think maybe the only way to find out who can be a successful NFL quarterback is to have them start in the NFL. That's one of the reasons that I thought it was curious that the Redskins started Rex Grossman at the end of last season instead a Beck. We know that Grossman is a mediocre quarterback, perhaps a decent backup. We have no idea what Beck can do.

The point I am trying to make is that it's tough to know who is going to be a good quarterback at the next level. You can't just throw up a list and say that all these 5, 6 or 7th round guys couldn't play, because most of them didn't really have a chance, and the one that did has won three Superbowls.

[MtnBakerSkin]

Mid to Late round the guy I'm watching is Enderle really raw type QB but a guy who you could mold into a starter with the right coaching. Has a big time arm and some nice mobility

I'm an Idaho grad and had a chance to watch Enderle a fair amount in the last four years. Never surrounded by talent of any kind, always under a hard rush with very mediocre WRs. Fairly mobile for his size (6'5", around 235) and throws a nice deep ball. 74 career TDs, but also a lot of INTs. He's streaky - he'll throw 3 TDs in one game and then follow it up with 3 INTs in the next game. He threw, what, 5 picks alone against Nebraska this year, the best team on the schedule (with no apologies to Boise Junior College.) I'd love to see what he could do with some pro coaching and surrounded by a higher level of talent.

That said, I've also seen a lot of Kaepernick and the guy is a flat out player. Scary fast and tall (6'6".) Throws a huge ball. Had problems in the past with accuracy, but really stepped up his game this year. 82 career TDs, and had a 65% completion percentage this year. Also can score with his feet. Tons of potential. Durable. If I was going to take a mid-rounder "project" QB, I'd go with Kaepernick, hands down. Wait and see - the guy will be a starter in the NFL somewhere in the next 2 - 3 years.

[Dukes and Skins]

I'm an Idaho grad and had a chance to watch Enderle a fair amount in the last four years. Never surrounded by talent of any kind, always under a hard rush with very mediocre WRs. Fairly mobile for his size (6'5", around 235) and throws a nice deep ball. 74 career TDs, but also a lot of INTs. He's streaky - he'll throw 3 TDs in one game and then follow it up with 3 INTs in the next game. He threw, what, 5 picks alone against Nebraska this year, the best team on the schedule (with no apologies to Boise Junior College.) I'd love to see what he could do with some pro coaching and surrounded by a higher level of talent.

That said, I've also seen a lot of Kaepernick and the guy is a flat out player. Scary fast and tall (6'6".) Throws a huge ball. Had problems in the past with accuracy, but really stepped up his game this year. 82 career TDs, and had a 65% completion percentage this year. Also can score with his feet. Tons of potential. Durable. If I was going to take a mid-rounder "project" QB, I'd go with Kaepernick, hands down.

Honestly though Kaepernick is not going to be a mid round guy with how he's been flying up boards lately. He could very well go 2nd round now after his senior bowl and if he does well combine and pro day he could go mid to early 2nd

[Jbank31]

It is a nice thread but I would book a quarterback taken with pick 10. My feeling is that I believe that Jake Locker will be drafted by the Redskins. If they don't grade him out at 10 then I think you could see them trade their first round pick next year to someone like New England to get a second first round pick and draft him there. His skill set is suited for the Shanahan offense. I know his fundamentals need work and accuracy is an issue, but everything I hear about this kid is that he is very open to coaching and would benefit from a system where he could sit for a year or two to learn the craft.

[pimpumd]

I'm not sure if this mock draft (http://www.draftseason.com/2011-nfl-mock-draft/ultimate-mock-draft/) has been discussed yet, but it has us taking Julio Jones in the first and Jake Locker in the second. I know we desperately need help on both the offensive and defensive lines, but from an offensive point of view, I love those picks (assuming Shanny believes Locker is the real deal and not a bust).

[Koolblue13]

I'm not sure if this mock draft (http://www.draftseason.com/2011-nfl-mock-draft/ultimate-mock-draft/) has been discussed yet, but it has us taking Julio Jones in the first and Jake Locker in the second. I know we desperately need help on both the offensive and defensive lines, but from an offensive point of view, I love those picks (assuming Shanny believes Locker is the real deal and not a bust).

I would love that draft. Along with signing J Jones, Joseph and Kalil, our O would be in great shape.

[pimpumd]

I would love that draft. Along with signing J Jones, Joseph and Kalil, our O would be in great shape.

I like you're thinking!

[Rufus T Firefly]

I would love that draft. Along with signing J Jones, Joseph and Kalil, our O would be in great shape.

I call foul on you wanting 2 different J. Joneses at WR.

[Koolblue13]

I call foul on you wanting 2 different J. Joneses at WR.

I can hear Berman now. "You just can't keep up with the Joneses" on Sunday nights.

[darrelgreenie]

Trust me I take everything with a grain of salt. Scout after scout gets it wrong in terms of QBs coming out of the draft all the time. So yeah am not so presumptuous to think that I know better based on watching a game or two and reading draft web sites.

Your previous post seemed to suggest that you would be relying on what you read about the draft prospects; but imo your probably better off trusting your own eyes.

Of course, I never said Locker is going in the 5th. Some of the Qb's I talked about are projected 2nd/3rd rounders. I included Locker because there is a fighting chance he will be there in the early 2nd. That might be a long shot too.

I was kinda thrown off b/c I thought we were discussing mid to late round guys.

I wonder for the simple reason that so many teams need Qb's this year.

Yeah it could happen but I find it hard to believe.

Like you mentioned with Pike and Lefevour I doubt the post SB media draft hype has much bearing on where the QBs will actually get drafted.

If 7 QBs are taken in the 1st 3 rounds that would be the most since 2006 when 13 QBs were drafted.

Like I said, I trust Shanny here and if he likes Stanzi good enough for me. Stanzi played decently in the SB game, I agree. I didn't think he looked too hot in the practices i watched. But again, its a small sample. And am not pretending i am a Qb expert.

When it comes to QBs we all should trust Mike Shanahan.

And of course none of us are experts but if you enjoy looking at/discussing evaluating QB play a little more in depth then hopefully this thread would be a place to discuss which mid to late round prospects that we like.

Imo attempting to accurately evaluate a QB play is quite different from projecting which QBs will become good NFL QBs.

---------- Post added February-14th-2011 at 07:26 PM ----------

I think maybe the only way to find out who can be a successful NFL quarterback is to have them start in the NFL. That's one of the reasons that I thought it was curious that the Redskins started Rex Grossman at the end of last season instead a Beck. We know that Grossman is a mediocre quarterback, perhaps a decent backup. We have no idea what Beck can do.

I didn't quote your whole post, b/c I pretty much agree w/ everything you wrote.

But, I we really see eye to eye on your above point.

I'm with you I didn't understand why we didn't get a look at Beck?

The point I am trying to make is that it's tough to know who is going to be a good quarterback at the next level.

Agree 100%.

Imo being a successful QB has is very much interwoven with factors external to the actual QB.

BTW-Are there any mid to late round QBs that you like?

[jefeweiss]

BTW-Are there any mid to late round QBs that you like?

Honestly, since I don't get paid to look at them, I haven't put in nearly the time that I would need to be able to make any kind of judgment. I would say that I tend to discount the college level success of quarterbacks that play in spread offenses or any other type of offense that is not run at the pro level, it's just too difficult to tell if success in a completely different offense against defenses that are not nearly as good means anything to success in the NFL. I think that a lot of athletic college quarterbacks would be better off transitioning to running back or some other position.

I think that it would make sense to me, if you are a NFL team who needs a quarterback, to bring in a good number of cut or undrafted quarterbacks into camp every year until you find a few that you want to try out in games. I'd take the red jersey off of them in camp and see who gets it done. I don't think that a team is better off spending the time installing their whole offense with a guy who is below average or isn't willing to give an effort. NFL coaches as a group are not really willing to take risks, even ones that might make sense from a longer term perspective. Someone like Mike Shanahan might have more leeway than a coach who is on the verge of being fired, but going into a season with a bunch of no-name quarterbacks is a good way to get fired. He might be better off drafting high and starting Grossman, even though it's not the better long term play. It's tougher to second guess, and that is how the game is played.

One of the things about high draft picks (particularly the first half of the first round) is that you spend a lot of money (out of a limited pool of money) to figure out if a guy will work out. There are positions where a team is making a much safer bet than at quarterback.

[ABSTRACT]

I'm not sure if this mock draft (http://www.draftseason.com/2011-nfl-mock-draft/ultimate-mock-draft/) has been discussed yet, but it has us taking Julio Jones in the first and Jake Locker in the second. I know we desperately need help on both the offensive and defensive lines, but from an offensive point of view, I love those picks (assuming Shanny believes Locker is the real deal and not a bust).

So no NT (Phil Taylor) or DE (JJ Watt) for the last ranked defensive unit in the league?? Surprising someone would want offense in the 1st 2 rounds.

Jake Locker is also naturally inaccurate as well...which makes me never want to draft him because nobody will win a championship with an innaccurate QB. You can't beat the Steelers defense with a guy like that.

I'd rather sign a QB in the later rounds...an accurate one...preferable Ricky Stanzi or Greg McElroy.

[darrelgreenie]

I'd rather sign a QB in the later rounds...an accurate one...preferable Ricky Stanzi or Greg McElroy.

That's great because that's what this thread is about mid to late round QBs?

What do you like about those QBs? *(note: I'm asking what you like about them and not saying that i like or dislike those prospects)

[santana_4_prez]

McElroy because he has always won.

There is something about QB's that win consistently that can't be judged by a stop watch or video.

Yeah, but it doesn't mean they will be worth a crap in the NFL. Craig Krenzel anyone?

[ABSTRACT]

That's great because that's what this thread is about mid to late round QBs?

What do you like about those QBs? *(note: I'm asking what you like about them and not saying that i like or dislike those prospects)

I don't have precise stats backing me but I just like what I see from McElroy in particular. Even if he turns out to be a career backup for us....I think that's the worst-case scenario. I love his poise under pressure, his passion for the game, his leadership skills, he's not an meathead, his decision making is great (I've dealt with too many QBs that made bad decisions like McNabb, Campbell, and Grossman), and he is ACCURATE. I know that he's in Saban's system of strong running game opening up WRs....but the poise this guy shows is undeniable.

I feel the same about Ricky Stanzi. I would be happy with either of these QB being picked up in the later rounds (rds. 4-6)

[darrelgreenie]

I don't have precise stats backing me but I just like what I see from McElroy in particular. Even if he turns out to be a career backup for us....I think that's the worst-case scenario. I love his poise under pressure, his passion for the game, his leadership skills, he's not an meathead, his decision making is great.........................................................and he is ACCURATE. I know that he's in Saban's system of strong running game opening up WRs....but the poise this guy shows is undeniable.

I feel the same about Ricky Stanzi. I would be happy with either of these QB being picked up in the later rounds (rds. 4-6)

Yeah, I kinda discount McElroy's production a bit b/c he's playing w/ great talent around him, probably the best WR in college football and 2 of the better backs in college football.

I can see why you like him although I think he shares many of those same traits w/ the other QBs in this draft.

Stanzi and McElroy as similar prospects to me both play in pro-style offense, both are well protected, although McElroy was slighty better both had very efficient and productive seasons, both have classic over the top throwing motions, to my eye McElroy has a slight hitch in his delivery and Stanzi has the stronger arm.

[The Tris]

Yeah, but it doesn't mean they will be worth a crap in the NFL. Craig Krenzel anyone?

Krenzel is a good comp for some of these guys. I also think that Chad Henne is a name to remember.

Ponder reminds me a bit of Henne.

Other comps that come to mind:

Kaepernick - Andre Woodson

Mallett - a stronger Brian Brohm

Stanzi - more consistent Drew Stanton

Dalton - Kellen Clemens

[darrelgreenie]

Yeah, I can certainly see Ponder being gone in the 5th; Dalton has a better chance but the still slim.

I think our best best is gain a 3rd or 4th round pick or kick the tires on Matt Flynn.

Looks like the price of Matt Flynn might be a 2nd round pick.

Things I Didn’t Used To Know

*Don’t be surprised if Matt Flynn follows the path of Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Brooks, Mark Brunell and Kurt Warner and leaves Green Bay to become a starting quarterback elsewhere. Teams in need of a quarterback are taking a good look at Flynn, who performed exceptionally well against the Patriots in New England in December. The Packers believe the fourth-year QB is ready to start, but of course he’s not going to start in Green Bay. Flynn, who was a seventh round pick, has developed consistently under Mike McCarthy and Tom Clements. My people at Lambeau Field tell me Flynn is just a winner, whether he’s playing pickup pick-up basketball, cards or football. That figures, because he won a national championship at LSU. The Packers might be able to get a second round pick in a trade for Flynn.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-8249.html

[Skinsinparadise]

Your previous post seemed to suggest that you would be relying on what you read about the draft prospects; but imo your probably better off trusting your own eyes.

I said I'd be relying on it but really more in a fun way. I can't really take the draft geeks that seriously about QB's, it's a tough position to judge. Still fun to talk about so i don't begrudge anyone including on this board spouting strong opinions about any QB. It's fun to read. It's just for me personally, i am just making guesses based on other people's opinions. As for trusting my eyes, I can see arm strength, quickness, and accuracy but I haven't watched enough games to do really a full assessment. Also, tough to see things like how the QB reads through progressions, sticks to game plan, reads defenses, adjusts, etc.

On another note on ESPN they just posted a radio conversation between Kiper and McShay, interesting stuff. Kiper seemed to allude that Dalton is the hot of the 2nd round and later QBs. Newton he and McShay think is going top 5, Gabbert likely top 10.

I was kinda thrown off b/c I thought we were discussing mid to late round guys.

that's cool, I can understand, but you asked me my take of the Qb's so i just went into the full slate of any potential 2nd rounder on down. I suspect that if we wait till the 5th round the picking will be slim. I really doubt all these guys; Stanzi, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick, etc will be there to choose from. too bad we don't have our 3rd or 4th rounders because those i would guess might be the operative rounds for these guys.

Yeah it could happen but I find it hard to believe.

Like you mentioned with Pike and Lefevour I doubt the post SB media draft hype has much bearing on where the QBs will actually get drafted.

If 7 QBs are taken in the 1st 3 rounds that would be the most since 2006 when 13 QBs were drafted.

Guess will see, you mentioned the first 3 rounds but the 4th round is in play too of course before we draft in the 5th round. McShay was just talking about it, he thinks 9 out the top 12 teams drafting could use a QB.

When it comes to QBs we all should trust Mike Shanahan. And of course none of us are experts but if you enjoy looking at/discussing evaluating QB play a little more in depth then hopefully this thread would be a place to discuss which mid to late round prospects that we like. Imo attempting to accurately evaluate a QB play is quite different from projecting which QBs will become good NFL QBs.

Agree. and as for discussing this stuff, it helps kill a long off season so i am all for it. I love the pre draft hype.

I'm with you I didn't understand why we didn't get a look at Beck?

Good question, you got me. Just a guess, but it wouldn't surprise me if they like him but aren't sure, so why not in a deep QB class, pick another one and let them compete. There are 2 wild cards that IMO might happen in the draft that would set up the media and some board members on anti-Shanny rants but am cool with:

1. If he thinks Gabbert or Newton are the be all and end all. He trades next years 1st or something to trade up. what makes me think that is Shanny in his book and interviews believes the QB is the be all and end all. And you can almost tell that he regrets not doing more to trade up for Bradford. He said during the season that he wants to look for the next Bradford in the draft. if he thinks that Newton is that guy and lets say Dalton just doesn't cut it in comparison -- he tries to pull the trigger.

2. He drafts 2 Qb's. goes for one in the first or 2nd and then uses one of his 5th round picks if someone is there he likes. Why not get your backup QB and the front line starter at the same time. And who knows maybe the 5th rounder ends up better. if lets say he takes Dalton in the 2nd and Stanzi is there in the 5th. and you aren't totally sold on each, why not take both and let it play out? People will bemoan the team having other needs, etc but since when is a 5th round pick a critical one?

BTW-Are there any mid to late round QBs that you like?

Seems like of the guys that are discussed all the time, the only likely mid -- assuming you mean 5th thru 7 is Stanzi and McElroy. I got to look at both of those guys closely. I've read ASF's take on McElroy but I got to watch him myself some, I'll try to do that.

---------- Post added February-16th-2011 at 09:40 AM ----------

Krenzel is a good comp for some of these guys. I also think that Chad Henne is a name to remember.

Ponder reminds me a bit of Henne.

Other comps that come to mind:

Kaepernick - Andre Woodson

Mallett - a stronger Brian Brohm

Stanzi - more consistent Drew Stanton

Dalton - Kellen Clemens

Best case scenarios to me are

Ponder -- Pennington in his prime

Kaepernick -- McNabb in his prime

Mallet -- Bledsoe

Stanzi -- Kevin Kolb

Dalton -- Drew Brees

[RWJ]

Wonder if Shanny might consider Nathan Enderle, QB, Idaho with one of our 5th round picks?

[Dukes and Skins]

Wonder if Shanny might consider Nathan Enderle, QB, Idaho with one of our 5th round picks?

I hope we do I liked what I saw from him on Youtube, he's raw but has the tools to be a guy to watch out for

[Skinsinparadise]

Things keep changing reading Kiper's Q & A, and watching his excerpt with McShay looks like his take:

Dalton -- 2nd round

Stanzi -- 2nd to 3rd round

Kaepernick -- 3rd round

Ponder 3rd round maybe 4th

[darrelgreenie]

Things keep changing reading Kiper's Q & A, and watching his excerpt with McShay looks like his take:

Dalton -- 2nd round

Stanzi -- 2nd to 3rd round

Kaepernick -- 3rd round

Ponder 3rd round maybe 4th

ESPN draft guru Todd McShay said three QBs are tempting possibilities after the second round for Washington: Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick. "They're athletic players who can move around and fit what the Shanahans are trying to do very well," he said.

When did they update their QBs stuff can somebody post a link?..please

---------- Post added February-16th-2011 at 07:12 PM ----------

Also, tough to see things like how the QB reads through progressions, sticks to game plan, reads defenses, adjusts, etc.

Yeah, there's a lot you can't get a read on.

I think you can get a guage for wehter or not they're reading through progressions:

o if the game feed/clip you're watching is good you can see if there helmet moves

o you can see the helmet lock on and never leave then watch what they do next panic/run

o you can see if they're throwing to their 1st look

o you can see if they're throwing to their look despite being covered

Agree. and as for discussing this stuff, it helps kill a long off season so i am all for it. I love the pre draft hype.

No doubt, and its one of my hobbies and it helps me coach.

Imo evaluating anything closely helps make a better coach.

1. If he thinks Gabbert or Newton are the be all and end all. He trades next years 1st or something to trade up. what makes me think that is Shanny in his book and interviews believes the QB is the be all and end all. And you can almost tell that he regrets not doing more to trade up for Bradford. He said during the season that he wants to look for the next Bradford in the draft. if he thinks that Newton is that guy and lets say Dalton just doesn't cut it in comparison -- he tries to pull the trigger.

I definetly agree that Mike/Kyle like many offensive minded HC/OC view the team and the offense through the eyes of the QB.

But despite running the same offense I think Mike/Kyle are very different OCs and playcallers.

The reason why I mention that is b/c I think the type of QB Mike would like isn't required for Kyle's style of offense/playcalling.

I don't think Kyle would draft Newton b/c he didn't seem fond of Tebow last year.

I just don't see them moving up to get a QB.

2. He drafts 2 Qb's. goes for one in the first or 2nd and then uses one of his 5th round picks if someone is there he likes. Why not get your backup QB and the front line starter at the same time.

I think they have a high enough opinion of Beck to want to develop him at least as a back-up.

Seems like of the guys that are discussed all the time, the only likely mid -- assuming you mean 5th thru 7 is Stanzi and McElroy. I got to look at both of those guys closely

Mid for me was after the 3rd and it doesn't have to be a oft mentioned guy e.g. Dukes like Enderle, there's Devlin, Tyrod Taylor, TJ Yates, Scott Tolzien, I like Jerrod Johnson as a late rounder UDFA invite.

*If you have time and want to do a breakdown of a game in a similar fashion as the Locker, Gabbert and Newton threads pm me.

Holmester is supposedly might to be working on a Stanzi breakdown w/ me at some point.

[darrelgreenie]

Apparently Mike Mayock had a media conference call today:

Can't find a complete transcript though

I thought this was interesting:

Other notes of note:

- He sees Patrick Peterson as a safety later in his NFL career.

- Of everyone he talked about, Mayock seemed the most excited about Jacquizz Rodgers and Patrick Peterson.

- Ricky Stanzi fits Mike Shanahan's scheme.

http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/2/17/1999648/mike-mayock-conference-call-cliffsnotes

[Mahons21]

Apparently Mike Mayock had a media conference call today:

Can't find a complete transcript though

I thought this was interesting:

http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/2/17/1999648/mike-mayock-conference-call-cliffsnotes

After reading this, I went and checked out some Stanzi highlights, brought up the Iowa v Michigan State game, and the player who really stood out to me was Clayborn. Extremely disruptive player, that is more suited to play de in a 3-4, but I'm worried he might not be ideal for a 2-gap scheme.