Head fake theory: Could Andrew Luck be pulling an Eli Manning and choosing his own 2011 team?

[Rpredskins]

i am a stanford student so obviously i have followed luck very closely... unless this guy is some sort of grand master of deception, this theory goes against everything i have seen in him and the culture of the football program here.

[Hitman21ST]

i am a stanford student so obviously i have followed luck very closely... unless this guy is some sort of grand master of deception, this theory goes against everything i have seen in him and the culture of the football program here.

Did Eli have a holier-than-thou attitude when he was at Ole Miss or when he came out?

[Birdlives]

That's his father talking. He's the designated party line. The big lie.....

Wow, that's a ton of speculation on your part.

I think it would be easier for Luck to simply pull an Elway and say, I'm declaring for the draft, but I won't sign with Carolina if they draft me.

Same basic effect, just easier, less shady, and more effective. Also, He gets to play this year and not be shelved without any ability to play football for 12 months.

In my experience, the simplest path is usually the best one.

So please explain to us what Luck gains from going your route instead of simply declaring for the draft and threatening not to sign unless he wants to play for the team that drafts him.

[veteranskinsfan]

I think the OP could be on to something because Harbaugh and Luck would obviously like to play on the same team. Also 49ers have plenty of picks to give Carolina. Time will tell but I am convinced if Luck can land on a team that is better than Carolina then he will try everything legitimate to go elsewhere.

[MrJL]

teams can't trade until after the playoffs. The declaring deadline is in a week. If he declared in a week a trade would not happen because the Panthers want luck. So this entire thing is impossible.

[Conn]

teams can't trade until after the playoffs. The declaring deadline is in a week. If he declared in a week a trade would not happen because the Panthers want luck. So this entire thing is impossible.

To be fair, picks CAN still be traded. Its players that cannot.

[TheGoodBits]

That's his father talking. He's the designated party line. The big lie.

It's actually not a lie, in the sense that it's the truth until the situation changes. When the 49ers own the first pick in the 2011 draft, it's a whole different world.

The big lie supports the bid by the 49ers to trade for the first pick in the draft. Of course Carolina can't be so stupid to do that trade and not know what's going on. But, the big lie helps bring Carolina to the table, by making clear that even with Harbaugh leaving Stanford, Andrew Luck still won't allow himself to be drafted by Carolina in 2011. He's giving Carolina the middle finger. That's what's going on.

So, at the table, the 49ers tell Carolina that Andrew Luck will never play for Carolina, even if he's drafted by Carolina in the 2012 draft. Face reality. You're never getting him. So, take the deal on the table. That deal is the 49ers #1 picks in 2011 and 2012 drafts, plus Carolina's choice of any 49er QB. Deadline for deal is January 15.

I just posed this dilemma to my wife and asked what she'd do in Carolina's position. She said she'd turn down the deal.

I said, "How do you turn down that deal? You're never getting Andrew Luck. The only way you turn down the deal is for spite."

"That's right. For spite. I turn it down for spite."

So, if Carolina turns down the deal, it's for spite, and we never hear about this at all. It's all being played out behind the scenes, and the only person talking is Andrew Luck's father, pumping the big lie.

---------- Post added January-8th-2011 at 12:33 PM ----------

One more thing. As far as I know, nothing stops Andrew Luck from being drafted by an NFL team (say, the 49ers) in 2011, while he continues on his path to complete his Stanford degree in 2012. Being drafted by an NFL team and being paid by an NFL team obviously prevents Luck from playing QB for an NCAA team. But, why can't he continue his coursework? Even full time?

The first answer ("Because he'd have to spend all his time with the NFL team, you idiot") is true only for normal situations. Luck is good enough to command his own terms. Why not say to the 49ers, "I need a contract that allows me to participate in your 2011 training camp ..." (if held at all due to CBA / lockout) "... and allows me to take classes in the fall and spring semesters as I originally planned. Obviously this would make me unavailable for your 2011 schedule."

This is essentially what happens to a player injured in training camp and put on IR for the year. So, it's no big deal. Player gets paid not to play or even show up at the facility. The only difference is that it's a planned event, not the outcome of injury.

Now, the NFL paralegals on this site will jump in and explain to me why this proposal won't work for various reporting / roster reasons. OK, legal beagles. Draft a contract that has no reporting / roster requirements at all for 2011, and simply gives him a big signing bonus for 2011, while retaining rights for 2012.

Anything that two parties want to work out in contract can be done. Sometimes these ideas and contracts are new.

Your OP was far fetched... this post is complete lunacy.

Of course the Panthers could just take Greg McElroy at #1 overall and be better off than they would with Luck, right?

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

teams can't trade until after the playoffs. The declaring deadline is in a week. If he declared in a week a trade would not happen because the Panthers want luck. So this entire thing is impossible.

To be fair, picks CAN still be traded. Its players that cannot.

Same deal can work after the deadline, forcing a supplemental draft. However, I get the feeling from the timing of Luck's statement and Harbaugh's hiring that there is pressure to get this done now, via the standard draft. Luck could be a 49er on paper by next weekend.

[SkinsFTW]

I kinda buy the whole thing because after their bowl game it did sound like Luck was basically saying goodbye and talking about the great time and past seasons he had at the school. Then a couple days later he said he's staying when Carolina said they'd pick him.

---------- Post added January-9th-2011 at 12:52 PM ----------

Of course the Panthers could just take Greg McElroy at #1 overall and be better off than they would with Luck, right?

Why would they do that and give up all the extra picks they'd get from other teams who want Luck?

[aszumilo]

The other plausible scenario, before Luck said he was staying at Stanford, is that perhaps Carolina only said they wanted him. He is the consensus overall #1 pick in the draft should he declare.

Carolina by stating they will draft him makes perfect sense in a couple of ways.:

1. Carolina does want him. He could be a franchise QB for a long time. = Win for the Panthers

2. If they are only saying they want him, it could cause teams like the 49er's, to bring a big offer to the table. They get more draft picks to work with. = Also a Win for the Panthers

3. If Carolina says they don't want him, based on #1 or #2, where does that leave Carolina? They get nothing of comparable value to Luck. They would be foolish to say no to Luck either way.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

this is quite conspiracy theory

Here's an even better version: the stalking horse partner.

Suppose Carolina simply won't play ball with the 49ers to trade the first pick in the draft. They simply can't stomach losing Andrew Luck in this manner, which is a direct insult to the franchise. No amount of picks will change their mind.

Here's where the stalking horse partner can be useful. 49ers work out a side deal with another team (such as Houston or Dallas; a team that doesn't need a QB), offering to match whatever the stalking horse pays for the first pick in the drift, plus a valuable bonus added to the mix. The bonus could be a player or a pick.

Then the stalking horse trades with Carolina, duping Carolina into the trade because the stalking horse doesn't need a QB. First trade completed, the stalking horse wheels and trades the pick to the 49ers in return for full value plus the bonus.

It's ruthless and devious, but the 49ers did just commit $25m to Harbaugh. They've gone all in on a guy who's done very little without Andrew Luck as his QB. It makes more sense if they are committed to getting Andrew Luck no matter what, and Luck is on board. Only Carolina is in the way. If Carolina's pride won't let them do the trade, the stalking horse is the solution to that problem.