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Clarifying the Potential Lockout


Hubbs

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Since I and most of the football fans I know are very confused about the details surrounding the possible 2011 lockout, I thought I'd make a thread to clear a few things up. These are the initial questions:

1. At what point is a lockout legally guaranteed? Could the NFLPA and owners agree to a new CBA the day before the season is scheduled to start and we'd still have football?

2. Is there any chance a lockout could extend through 2012?

3. I remember lockout talk the last time the CBA was about to expire, and an extension agreement was reached. What's so different this time?

4. Could we still have scab games? Honestly, this might make me root for a lockout for at least a couple of games....

5. As I understand it, the players want a bigger piece of the pie, the owners say that they'll lose money if they give up any more, but the owners won't open up their books to prove it. Is that seriously their negotiating strategy? This is working? Really?

6. I read through the NFLPA's counter-proposal regarding the 18-game season (which I think could ultimately solve all of this and get us football next year), and it seemed reasonable to me. I haven't been able to find any objections raised by the owners. Have they announced specific objections, or just said no without explaining why?

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While I'll admit up front to not being an expert on the matter, I think I can attempt to answer at least a couple of questions

2. Is there any chance a lockout could extend through 2012?

3. I remember lockout talk the last time the CBA was about to expire, and an extension agreement was reached. What's so different this time?

4. Could we still have scab games? Honestly, this might make me root for a lockout for at least a couple of games....

5. As I understand it, the players want a bigger piece of the pie, the owners say that they'll lose money if they give up any more, but the owners won't open up their books to prove it. Is that seriously their negotiating strategy? This is working? Really?

2. If you wanna get technical, if there's a lockout of course there's a chance that it could go into 2012, but it's incredibly unlikey. There's no way either owner or players could financially afford a 2 year lockout.

3. The difference is this: last time the CBA actually expired. This time the owners opted out early. As a result, many feel (and I think rightly so) that if the owners are unhappy with the current contract situation, they should be more open to negotiations than they've showed so far. So in '06, the CBA was done, in '10 the owners used their option to back out early.

4. From what I understand, a lockout means no games. The scab games were a result of a strike not a lockout. I'm 99% sure that a lockout means no football period.

5. The owners are stupid to be using this tactic. "We're broke!" "Ok, show us to books so we can see what compromises we can make." "No! We won't show you the books, you just have to shut up and take a pay cut!" Not exactly the best strategy to use, and it's gonna have a lot more people on the players' side this time around than the last few times.

On the other questions, I have no clue. Sorry bro.

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  • 1 month later...

If Lockout occurs, any offseason interest is dampened.

I do believe there will be a lockout during the entire offseason and training camp. I don't think they will reach an agreement until August leaving only maybe a couple of weeks to get ready for the 2011 season. Preseason will be wiped out. I don't think there will be free agency in 2011, no time. So they will reach some sort of agreement for a one year extension of all players who were to be free agents and guarantee them they will be free agents in 2012 and not franchised.

No clue on how this impacts the draft. Draft may go on without any trades.

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I think if they go to 18 games then it justifies giving players a bigger piece, plus the owners can get the rookie pay-scale for draft picks (which they are trying to do) installed as part of the compromise. Bigger piece for players, but 18 games now, and draft pick payscale, seems like a reasonable agreement that's mutually benefitial, to me anyways. Goodell said he expects the deal to get done, take it for what its worth.

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I have no idea what I'll do without an NFL season.

It terrifies me that its a real possibility.

I would go insane.

If Lockout occurs, any offseason interest is dampened.

I do believe there will be a lockout during the entire offseason and training camp. I don't think they will reach an agreement until August leaving only maybe a couple of weeks to get ready for the 2011 season. Preseason will be wiped out. I don't think there will be free agency in 2011, no time. So they will reach some sort of agreement for a one year extension of all players who were to be free agents and guarantee them they will be free agents in 2012 and not franchised.

No clue on how this impacts the draft. Draft may go on without any trades.

This worries me almost as much. A lockout has the potential to not only ruin the 2011 season, but this upcoming offseason as well. Hell, even a lockout that only lasted until June would be a big blow to us. The earliest draft picks we could get for McNabb/Albert/whoever else would be 2012 picks.

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The way I understand it this lockout is entirely on the owners. The players have stated that they would agree to continue under the currently agreement. The owners however are claiming that they are hurting but have refused to show the union or anyone their books to prove this. They also want to recoup bonuses more easily and pay rookies less. The players union has said that they aren't going to give anything up without evidence that it's needed. On top of this the owners want more games which the players uniformly oppose.

So in summary they want to pay out less, have more games, and not show anyone any evidence that this is needed or has any merit. The players union strikes me as weak and dumb enough to come out losing on this but frankly it will hurt football if they do. We already have enough people telling any potential athlete "play baseball or basketball instead". The players of both of those sports already have much better situations than NFL players do and take less punishment physically without even considering concussions.

This should be a situation where the players union is MAKING demands not hearing them. They are behind other sports by miles and falling further behind every year. They have to deal with franchise tags, ghost money contracts, and a losing battle for proper care after their careers.

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There's no way either owner or players could financially afford a 2 year lockout.

I think the players will blink first. I read somewhere that if there is a lockout for a full season 1/3 could potentially go bankrupt due to their extravagant lifestyle and not preparing for a rainy day. The owners will be fine as most made their riches from being savvy businessmen and have other business ventures that are making them money.

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I don't see how you start the season without having a FA period first. It would cause conflict for teams trying to replace FA's with draft picks. If you have 3 RBs on your roster right now, one of them is a FA and you draft a guy because you want to drop the old guy, how do you reconcile that without Free Agency? You force teams to pay the old guy you don't want any more? You would have to have some sort of Cap exemption for the year and an extended roster. It doesn't make much sense to me. I would bet dollars to donuts that no matter when the CBA is finalized, that you would have FA before the season is started.

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I don't see how you start the season witheverythingout having a FA period first. It would cause conflict for teams trying to replace FA's with draft picks. If you have 3 RBs on your roster right now, one of them is a FA and you draft a guy because you want to drop the old guy, how do you reconcile that without Free Agency? You force teams to pay the old guy you don't want any more? You would have to have some sort of Cap exemption for the year and an extended roster. It doesn't make much sense to me. I would bet dollars to donuts that no matter when the CBA is finalized, that you would have FA before the season is started.

If you don;t reach an agreement until late; then I don't see how they have free agency.

If there's a lockout for any period of time; expect things to be a ****in mess when everything resumes.

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If you don;t reach an agreement until late; then I don't see how they have free agency.

If there's a lockout for any period of time; expect things to be a ****in mess when everything resumes.

You can't just resume. FA has to happen. There is no getting around it. You cannot force teams to pay players they don't want.

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The earliest draft picks we could get for McNabb/Albert/whoever else would be 2012 picks.

That might not be a bad thing. Even if we get things resolved, part of me thinks we should only take 2012 picks as return this year. Generally, you can get higher picks if they are further into the future. Since we'll still have holes and Luck is likely to be coming out, why not load up in a future draft (we're already holding an extra 4th from the Raiders).

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